Gold Surges to Record High Amid Safe-Haven Inflows and Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices climbed to an all-time high of $4,530.60 per ounce in early Asian trading on Friday, driven by intensified demand for safe-haven assets and growing confidence in imminent U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts....

Gold Hits New Peak as Market Bets on Lower Rates

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,501.44 per ounce by 02:09 GMT on Friday, after briefly touching a new record of $4,530.60 earlier in the session. This rally reflects a surge in investor demand for gold as a defensive asset, fueled by uncertainty in equity markets and evolving expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy.

The upward movement in gold is causally linked to mounting speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will initiate a series of rate cuts in 2026. With inflation pressures softening and labor market indicators weakening, markets are increasingly pricing in looser policy ahead, which typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Safe-Haven Appeal Rises Amid Geopolitical and Market Uncertainty

Aside from macroeconomic drivers, gold’s appeal has grown due to elevated geopolitical risks and a broader pullback in risk sentiment. Ongoing concerns over an overheating AI-driven stock market, coupled with doubts about corporate earnings sustainability, have pushed investors toward traditionally stable assets.

The movement into gold, rather than being merely correlated with market volatility, stems from a direct reallocation of capital in response to perceived systemic risks both political and financial. This is further supported by strong flows into other precious metals, including silver, which recently hit its own record high.

Outlook and Market Implications

With central banks across the globe, particularly the Fed, leaning toward policy easing, analysts expect gold to remain well supported. Real interest rates are expected to trend lower, which historically correlates positively with precious metal prices.

If the Fed confirms a dovish trajectory in its upcoming meetings and global risk aversion persists, spot gold could challenge higher resistance levels beyond $4,550 in early 2026. However, if inflation surprises to the upside or geopolitical tensions ease, short-term corrections may follow.

Gold’s record-breaking rally to over $4,530 per ounce signals both a macroeconomic inflection point and a psychological shift in investor behavior. As central banks prepare to pivot and risk appetite moderates, gold's dual role as a store of value and inflation hedge continues to attract institutional and retail capital alike. The trend reinforces the metal’s historical status as a barometer of uncertainty in a rapidly evolving global financial environment.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Positive Start for Asia Despite Holiday Closures

Asian equities opened on a positive note Friday, buoyed by global optimism following Wall Street’s record highs. However, activity remained subdued as key markets like Australia and Hong Kong were closed for the Boxing Day holiday. Still, major indices that remained open posted moderate gains, suggesting that investor sentiment remains resilient heading into the final trading sessions of 2025.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.47%, while the broader Topix index climbed 0.27%. Real estate and technology sectors led the gains, with companies like Nexon and SoftBank rising 2.17% and 2.06% respectively. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.53% and the Kosdaq rose 0.42%, continuing the positive momentum seen across Asian markets since mid-December. In contrast, China's CSI 300 index edged 0.15% lower at the open, reflecting lingering domestic concerns amid broader regional strength.

Tokyo CPI Data Reinforces Tightening Bias

Japan’s economic data offered some insight into the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. Core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 2.3% year-on-year in December, remaining above the BOJ’s 2% inflation target. Although the figure was slightly below November’s 2.8% reading and the Reuters poll forecast of 2.5%, it still suggests that inflationary pressure is persisting, reinforcing the case for continued policy tightening.

The Tokyo CPI is widely viewed as a bellwether for nationwide inflation trends. The data strengthens the causal narrative behind the BOJ’s gradual shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy, though the modest pullback in the inflation rate may offer policymakers some breathing room.

Silver Surges to New Record as Safe-Haven Demand Grows

Silver extended its rally on Friday, soaring over 4% to a historic high of $74.89 per ounce. The metal has now gained more than 159% year-to-date, outpacing most other major asset classes. The spike reflects increased demand for safe-haven assets as investors grapple with uncertainties over the timing and scope of potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and the sustainability of the AI-driven equity market rally.

The surge in silver can be partially explained by a shift in risk appetite: with some investors concerned about stretched valuations in tech stocks and growing signs of speculative froth, precious metals are regaining favor. Moreover, rising geopolitical tensions and volatility in fiat currencies have supported flows into hard assets.

This rally is not just correlated with broader market uncertainty—it is causally driven by deteriorating confidence in risk assets and expectations that real yields may soften if central banks pause or reverse tightening cycles in early 2026.

U.S. Markets Provide Global Tailwind

U.S. equity futures ticked slightly higher during the Asian session, after the S&P 500 closed at a record high for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The index gained 0.32% to finish at 6,932.05, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 288.75 points (0.60%) to 48,731.16, also notching a record close. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.22% to settle at 23,613.31.

These gains provided a psychological boost for Asian markets, reinforcing confidence in global growth heading into 2026. The continued strength in U.S. equities, especially in technology and industrials, is causally linked to robust corporate earnings, stable inflation expectations, and easing fears of a sharp Fed pivot.

Asia-Pacific markets showed resilience on Friday, overcoming thin holiday trading to post modest gains. Japan and South Korea led the charge, while silver’s record-breaking surge highlighted investors’ search for stability amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. Tokyo's inflation data confirmed that price pressures remain steady, supporting the Bank of Japan's slow but steady shift in policy. As global markets approach the end of 2025, the balance between optimism and caution is likely to define investor behavior in the opening weeks of the new year.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Economic

AI Takes the Lead, But Humans Shape the Strategy

Miro Mitev, CEO and founder of SmartWealth Asset Management, is a pioneer in applying neural networks to asset management. While his firm’s investment decisions are executed entirely through artificial intelligence, Mitev asserts that human involvement is not only present it’s indispensable. The design, data preparation, parameter setting, and ongoing refinement of AI systems all depend on skilled human judgment.

Having first explored neural networks in 1997 while studying at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, Mitev has spent over two decades building predictive models for banks and tech firms. This deep experience culminated in the creation of SmartWealth, whose flagship fund, IVAC, targets annualized returns of 14–15% and is managing rapid growth with ambitions of reaching $2 billion in assets under management.

The Balance Between Trusting the Model and Guiding the System

SmartWealth’s operational philosophy is rooted in a paradox: the AI runs the show, but humans determine the rules of the game. Mitev explains that once an algorithm is deployed, human interference in decision-making becomes counterproductive. "The worst is to overrule the results," he warns, arguing that AI’s pattern recognition capabilities often outperform human intuition, even when results appear unclear at first glance.

Yet this trust in the model is conditional. The AI’s effectiveness hinges on clean, reliable, and relevant data. Human oversight is crucial to prevent and correct overfitting a condition where the model focuses excessively on noise rather than meaningful, causal indicators. Mitev stresses that what appears statistically significant may not have genuine predictive power in markets unless it reflects a cause-and-effect dynamic.

10-Year Performance Underscores Algorithmic Edge

SmartWealth’s results bolster the case for algorithmic investing. From 2015 to November 2025, the firm posted returns of 407.63%, compared with just 145.34% from its benchmark index. This outperformance, achieved without emotional decision-making, illustrates the power of consistent, data-driven model application. Mitev claims his system can reliably forecast market conditions up to one month ahead a horizon sufficient for short-term tactical positioning.

This forward-looking capacity stands in contrast to human investors, who are often swayed by sentiment and short-term noise. Even major institutions like the European Central Bank have flagged the potential role of “fear of missing out” in current market trends, raising concerns about momentum-driven investing based on emotion rather than fundamentals.

Guarding Against AI’s Known Pitfalls

Despite the apparent superiority of AI in investment decisions, Mitev is transparent about its vulnerabilities. He acknowledges that models can “hallucinate” or deliver false results, primarily due to overfitting, poor data quality, or incorrect model structure. To mitigate these risks, SmartWealth employs rigorous model validation, simulation in live environments, and continual refinement.

Importantly, Mitev underscores the value of in-house AI development. Custom-built systems not only improve reliability but also provide strategic differentiation in an industry where generic models risk becoming commoditized.

SmartWealth’s approach to investing reveals a new paradigm in finance where artificial intelligence executes strategy, but humans remain the architects of success. By merging computational power with human judgment in design and oversight, Miro Mitev’s firm exemplifies how AI-driven asset management can outperform traditional methods so long as the human role is not underestimated. In this evolving landscape, it’s clear that while machines may make the trades, it is still people who shape the future of investing.

Source: CNBC

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Winkelmann

Stocks

Political

Economic

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_1

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_2

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_3

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_4

India's Water Crunch Brews Risks For Beverage Giants_5

Foreign companies operating in India have long grappled with complex regulations and confusing tax laws.

In the northwestern state of Rajasthan, some of the world's biggest beverage firms face the additional challenge of securing and managing dwindling water supplies while navigating strict government rules and grievances of some local people who only get the resource piped-in once a week.

Nearly two-thirds of Rajasthan is covered by the Thar Desert, and its groundwater extraction ranks among the highest in India, adding to the economic pressures for the state in balancing the needs of its 85 million people, booming tourism business, industry and its big agricultural sector.

Laws in India, the world's most populous nation, bar the movement of liquor across state borders without a special permit, effectively forcing companies to set up production in every state they want to sell in despite the water scarcity. So global giants like Diageo, Carlsberg and Heineken have to maintain factories in Rajasthan if they want to distribute their products in the state.

"(Water stress) is a growing issue in India," said Sonia Thimmiah, senior director of global sustainability at Heineken, the market leader, adding that a few years ago, water demand in some cities had come close to exceeding supply.

Heineken, Carlsberg and Diageo said that they are increasing water efficiency in Rajasthan and other water-stressed regions, have worked to improve communities' access to water and aimed to replenish 100% of the water their factories use back to its source.

The challenges for the brewers in Rajasthan mirror a wider crisis across India, which holds 17% of the world's population but just 4% of its freshwater. As the world's fastest-growing major economy, India's thirst for growth means more production and more strain on its scarce water resources.

The strain is evident in Rajasthan's industrial town of Alwar, about 150 km (100 miles) southwest of Delhi, where most of the beverage companies are centred. The wider Alwar district's groundwater extraction, driven mainly by irrigation, runs at nearly twice the rate its aquifers can recharge, government data shows.

Industry users consume just about 2% of Rajasthan's water, but under Indian law, all industrial and commercial entities seeking groundwater extraction have to install on-site rainwater harvesting and aquifer recharge systems.

In areas such as Alwar that the government classifies as "over-exploited" for groundwater, industries are further required to adopt the "latest water efficient technologies so as to reduce dependence on groundwater resources", a government order said in 2020, without specifying details.

"The water tables are declining and rains are variable," Diageo's Alwar head Sumit Walia told Reuters.

"We have a vision to reduce water consumption by 40% and to ensure that whatever water is withdrawn from the ground, 100% replenishment is there. We are recycling 100% of the wastewater and installing advanced technologies which consume less water", like using air to rinse bottles instead of water, he said.

A table showing major alcohol producers' water use targets

TENSIONS WITH VILLAGERS

Federal authorities have permitted brewers in Alwar to draw up to about 4.6 million litres of groundwater daily under 2025 permits seen by Reuters, based on applications from the companies. The global firms account for around 65% of that with Heineken topping the list at 1.2 million litres.

A typical Indian household uses 500–600 litres a day but even getting that is difficult in Salpur village, next to the Alwar industrial cluster, where water is a luxury.

"The situation is very bad," said Imran Khan, head of the village of nearly 4,500 residents, who grows wheat and onion on his ancestral land. "We have to give several days of notice to the borewell owner to pump water for us - there's a queue."

He says he had to spend about 150,000 rupees ($1,700) to lay a 3-km (2-mile) pipeline from the borewell to his fields, and needs to pay 150 rupees for every hour of water supplied by its owner, a resident of another village.

Some locals blame the scarcity on the brewers.

"They are making alcohol there but locals do not have enough water to drink", said Alwar resident Haider Ali, who took several global and local alcohol companies to India's environmental court last year, alleging they were extracting water without permission.

A court-appointed inspection team later found that all factories complied with regulations. But the same court directed authorities in March to actively monitor groundwater abstraction and strictly enforce a 2020 government order prohibiting the issuance of new water permits to large industries in over-exploited areas.

Heineken and Carlsberg said there was no sign of community tension in Alwar beyond this court case, in part thanks to their work with locals on water. Diageo's Walia said he was not aware of the court case, but industries making paper, automobiles and other products consumed more water than the liquor companies.

The water problems are not limited to Rajasthan.

Reuters has reported how in the past decade India has lost several days of coal-power supply because water shortages forced plants to suspend generation.

In Coca-Cola's water security plan for 2023, reviewed by Reuters, the company says it operates nine factories in India in areas of "high or extremely high-water stress" and estimates that its annual costs of procuring water could rise by $180,000 to $2.7 million.

The company, which shut a factory in 2005 in the southern state of Kerala after protests over groundwater depletion, declined to comment.

'ALWAYS SCOPE FOR MORE'

Drinks makers say they are a small part of the problem in Rajasthan, and their water initiatives have significant positive impact.

Carlsberg's vice president for sustainability Simon Boas Hoffmeyer said its goals, including replenishing all water used, go beyond regulatory requirements. "If everybody did that, the industry's share of the issue would be very, very small," he said.

Diageo's global head of environment Michael Alexander said that in Salpur, the company has built small dams and planted 10,000 trees, while across Alwar it has desilted ponds, installed rooftop rainwater harvesting and funded boreholes and pipelines for communities.

Similar projects by Heineken had a positive impact in Rajasthan, said Subhransu Kumar Bebarta, partnerships lead at S M Sehgal Foundation, a non-profit that implements the company's water projects.

But big companies can go further, he said, adding larger infrastructure projects are needed in a state where some people struggle to find water to drink.

"They have improved the groundwater table. But still, there is always scope for more."

($1 = 90.2450 Indian rupees)

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Stocks

Economic

Foreign-branded smartphone shipments in China experienced contrasting figures for November, with Apple's iPhone driving a reported 128% increase, while other sources noted a 47% decline.

The discrepancy in data highlights the challenges in obtaining accurate market figures, potentially impacting investor decisions and consumer confidence in smartphone markets.

In November, foreign-branded smartphone shipments in China raised contrasting figures. Some reports indicated a significant 128% surge, driven by Apple, while others highlighted a 47% slump. Both interpretations are supported by raw data from China's official body CAICT.

Apple Inc. emerges as a key player, allegedly accounting for 6.93 million iPhones out of total shipments. This disparity in data highlights conflicting trends in the smartphone market. Further evaluations emphasize CAICT as the primary information source.

Data Variability Sparks Investor Uncertainty

The conflicting reports have not received responses from industry leaders or affected stakeholders. The variability in data invites scrutiny regarding data collection and interpretation practices within the industry.

Potential outcomes include uncertainty among investors and market experts about the actual status of foreign-branded smartphones in China. Historical data consistency is questioned, possibly affecting market strategies for international brands like Apple.

Discrepancies Reflect Methodological Differences

Similar discrepancies in data reports have occurred previously, often highlighting variations in methodologies. Past occurrences usually resolved with independent verifications. Now, experts call for enhanced transparency and unified measurements.

Insights from Kanalcoin indicate that the dual interpretations may stem from varying analytical criteria. Historical trends show that accurate data reconciliation fosters investor confidence and stabilizes market outlooks. "It appears there are no direct quotes or statements from industry leaders or experts related to the conflicting reports on foreign-branded smartphone shipments in China for November. This situation has been characterized by mixed data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) without additional commentary or insights from stakeholders or analysts in the space."

Source: CryptoSlate

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Commodity

Gold and silver surged to fresh record highs on Friday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar, extending a powerful year-end rally in precious metals.

Spot gold was last up 0.6% at $4,506.76 an ounce by 21:55 ET (02:55 GMT), after jumping to a new record peak of $4,530.60/oz earlier in the day.

U.S. Gold Futures for February delivery rose 0.7% to $4,537.55.

Gold prices were set to jump nearly 3% this week as investors sought protection against rising global uncertainty.

Spot silver prices surged over 4% to hit a new record high of $75.14/oz, set to jump over 7% this week.

Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, Nigeria boost gold

Geopolitical developments were a key driver of the move. Safe-haven demand increased after the U.S. stepped up pressure on Venezuela's oil exports, a move that raised concerns about supply disruptions and broader regional instability.

Adding to market unease, President Donald Trump said on social media that U.S. forces had carried out strikes against militant targets in Nigeria, highlighting Washington's willingness to use military force in multiple regions.

Silver tracked gold's gains, buoyed not only by its defensive appeal but also by its industrial use, particularly in electronics and clean-energy technologies.

Strong investment inflows and limited availability amplified price moves during holiday-thinned trading conditions.

Dollar remains weak amid Fed easing bets

The rally was further underpinned by weakness in the U.S. dollar, which slipped against a basket of major currencies.

The dollar has come under pressure amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin easing monetary policy in 2026 as inflation shows signs of cooling and economic growth moderates.

A softer dollar typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated commodities by making them cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Lower U.S. Treasury yields have also supported non-interest-bearing assets such as gold, as investors reassess the outlook for U.S. rates and shift portfolios toward stores of value.

With liquidity likely to remain thin through the holiday period, price swings could be exaggerated. Still, analysts said the broader fundamentals point to continued strength in gold and silver into the new year.

Source: Investing

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Forex kids 101

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Since early 2024, Gold has transitioned from a traditionally defensive asset into a structurally bullish, momentum-driven market. The rally has not been random or emotional; it has unfolded in distinct, impulsive waves, each followed by necessary consolidation phases. Understanding where we currently stand in this structure is critical—not only for directional bias, but for risk management and expectation setting as we move toward 2026.

This article breaks down the wave-based progression of Gold’s rally, evaluates whether the market is entering a terminal phase or another expansion leg, and outlines key levels and behaviours traders should monitor going forward.

Wave 1: The Structural Break That Changed Everything (February–October 2024)

The first strong impulse wave of the current Gold super-cycle began on 26 February 2024. This was not merely another bullish attempt—it was a structural regime shift.

· Key breakout level: 2034.08

· Wave 1 high: 2792.07 (28 October 2024)

Gold’s decisive break above the 2034.08 resistance confirmed a long-term bullish continuation and invalidated years of range-bound behaviour. This move established:

· A clear Break-and-Hold structure

· Higher highs and higher lows on the weekly timeframe

· Institutional participation rather than speculative noise

By late October 2024, Gold had expanded nearly 760 points before entering its first meaningful pause. This consolidation during November–December 2024 was healthy, controlled, and characteristic of a market preparing for continuation—not exhaustion.

Conclusion: Wave 1 set the foundation. Without this break, the $5,000 narrative would not exist.

Wave 2: Controlled Expansion and Institutional Re-Accumulation (January–April 2025)

The second wave of the rally began on 13 January 2025 at 2683.79, following two months of compression and liquidity absorption.

· Wave 2 high: 3504.74 (27 April 2025)

· Post-wave consolidation: Approximately 4 months

This phase was notable for its orderly structure. Price respected support, pullbacks were shallow, and volatility expanded gradually. The rally stalled near 3500—not due to weakness, but due to the market needing time to rebalance after a strong extension.

The four-month consolidation that followed reinforced an important insight:

Gold was no longer reacting to short-term catalysts; it was being repriced structurally.

Wave 3: Momentum Expansion and Trend Acceleration (August–October 2025)

After months of digestion, the third impulse wave began on 24 August 2025 at 3355.79.

· Wave 3 high: 4387.67 (12 October 2025)

This was the most aggressive and emotional leg of the rally so far. Characteristics included:

· Strong bullish displacement

· Minimal retracements

· Broad participation across timeframes

Wave 3 confirmed that Gold had entered a momentum-driven phase, often associated with late-cycle trend acceleration. However, as expected, price once again paused after a sharp expansion, respecting the natural rhythm of trending markets.

At this stage, the $5,000 target entered mainstream discussion—but this is precisely where disciplined traders must slow down.

Where Are We Now? Wave 4 or Structural Pause?

As we approach the end of 2025, Gold is once again consolidating below major highs. The critical question is:

Are we beginning Wave 4 toward $5,000—or are we forming a deeper corrective phase first?

Key Considerations:

1、Psychological Resistance Zone

· The 4000–4400 region is not just technical resistance; it is psychological and narrative-driven

· Markets often pause, retrace, or form complex structures near such levels.

2、Structural Risk Zone

· A controlled dip below 3990, or even a deeper retracement toward prior wave support, would not invalidate the $5,000 thesis.

· Instead, it could represent a final rebalancing phase before the next major expansion.

3、Time vs. Price

· Gold has moved aggressively in price over a relatively short period.

· Markets often compensate for rapid price expansion with time-based consolidation, not immediate continuation.

What to Watch Going Into 2026

Rather than predicting outcomes, traders should focus on behavioural confirmation. Here are the key signals to monitor:

Bullish Continuation Scenario:

· Higher lows holding above prior wave supports

· Clean break-and-hold above 4400

· Strong bullish displacement with shallow pullbacks

· Acceptance above psychological resistance zones

Deeper Correction Scenario:

· Failure to hold above 4000

· Increased volatility without directional follow-through

· Price dipping below the previous impulse base without immediate recovery

Importantly, a retracement does not negate the macro bullish structure unless long-term supports are decisively broken.

Final Perspective: Is $5,000 Too Early—or Still Ahead?

Gold’S Multi-Year Rally Toward $5,000: Wave Structure, Psychological Barriers, And What Comes Next_1

Gold’s rally since 2024 has followed a textbook expansion–consolidation rhythm. Each impulse wave has been respected by the market, and each pause has strengthened the overall structure.

Whether the next leg toward $5,000 begins immediately or after a deeper reset, the broader narrative remains intact:

Gold is in a long-term repricing phase, not a speculative spike.

For traders and investors alike, the focus should not be on calling the exact top or bottom—but on aligning with structure, respecting psychological zones, and allowing the market to confirm its next intent.

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