Germany's Military Rise Sparks Fear in France

Remarks of Officials

Political

Summary:

Germany's rearmament creates European anxiety, challenging power balances amid a rising far-right.

Germany is in the middle of a historic rearmament, committing over €500 billion ($586 billion) to its military by 2029. This massive investment will push its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP six years ahead of NATO's target, a move that the alliance has publicly praised.

Yet behind the official applause, a deep-seated unease is growing across Europe. The re-emergence of the Bundeswehr as a dominant continental power is stirring old anxieties, especially as Germany's far-right nationalist party climbs to record highs in opinion polls. This political shift has raised questions about whether Berlin's pro-European stance can be guaranteed in the long term.

Nowhere is this tension felt more acutely than in France, a nation that has long prided itself on having one of Europe's most capable militaries and its only independent nuclear deterrent.

A Mix of Relief and Anxiety in Paris

The French reaction to Germany's military expansion is deeply conflicted. On one side, there is relief that Berlin is finally sharing more of the security burden. On the other, there is growing anxiety that Germany's massive spending power could sideline France's own defense industry and diminish its political influence.

Four French officials, speaking anonymously, confirmed a general sense of apprehension about Germany's rising military might and the political leverage that accompanies it.

"France is in a fragile situation, and the fact that Germany is committing with such determination will of course create a dynamic that could leave us on the side of the road," warned François-Xavier Bellamy, a French member of the European Parliament. "The domestic fragility is weakening France's geopolitical heft."

Bellamy, a member of the center-right EPP group and a vocal advocate for a "Buy European" policy in defense, acknowledges the contradiction. "France has long complained about doing the job alone," he noted.

The Old Franco-German Balance Is Dead

For decades, European stability rested on an unspoken agreement: France would serve as the continent's geopolitical leader, while Germany would be its economic engine. According to Claudia Major, a senior vice president at the German Marshall Fund, this balance is now being upended.

"Germany didn't want to be a political giant," Major explained. "Now Germany is doing both, as well as making an effort to embed its new power within Europe. This puts France in a difficult position. Their anxiety says more about France itself than about Germany."

Under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Germany effectively set aside its strict borrowing limits for military spending to fund its rearmament and counter a more aggressive Russia. While Nordic, Baltic, and Polish governments are also making significant defense investments, few can match the sheer speed and volume of Germany's spending. In contrast, historical military powers like France, Italy, and Spain have far less fiscal room to maneuver.

Frictions in European Defense Cooperation

Despite Germany's efforts to coordinate its military buildup with allies, tensions have already surfaced. France felt pointedly excluded when former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz introduced the European Sky Shield Initiative, a project to purchase missile-defense systems. The frustration in Paris intensified when Scholz later announced a €10 billion deal to buy 35 American-made F-35 fighter jets instead of a European alternative.

While weapons purchases from the U.S. have reportedly slowed under Merz, collaboration with France remains difficult.

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), Europe's most ambitious joint defense project, is on the brink of collapse. After years of talks, French manufacturer Dassault Aviation SA and Airbus SE, representing German interests, have failed to agree on production shares for the next-generation fighter jet.

Germany's New Influence in NATO

With its growing military budget, Germany is gaining more clout within both the EU and NATO. Berlin has already proposed an expanded role for the European Defense Agency, which is currently led by a German general. Inside NATO, U.S. officials have reportedly joked that the alliance's top military position—Supreme Allied Commander Europe, always held by an American—might one day go to a German.

Germany is also best positioned to provide crucial "strategic enablers" for Europe, such as missile defense, space intelligence, and logistics—capabilities for which the continent currently depends almost entirely on the United States.

"We hope Germany will further develop strategic enablers for the alliance," said General Markus Laubenthal, a high-ranking German general in NATO. "It makes sense to work with key European allies. Together we are stronger."

The Political Risk: A Resurgent Far-Right

Ultimately, much of the anxiety in Europe is tied to Germany's domestic politics. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is leading in some polls and could make major gains in upcoming local elections.

While populism is on the rise across the continent, the prospect of a nationalist party holding power in a remilitarized Germany is a unique concern for its neighbors.

"There is a growing worry about what could happen to this extremely strong German fighting power if the AfD were to take over political leadership," said Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

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Liam Peterson

Central Bank

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Daily News

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams has signaled that the central bank is in no hurry to lower interest rates, stating that current monetary policy is effectively steering the economy toward its goals.

Speaking in New York on January 12, 2026, Williams emphasized that there is no immediate reason for a rate cut. His comments project confidence in the Fed's strategy to manage both employment and inflation.

Why the Fed is Holding Rates Steady

According to Williams, the central bank's current interest rate stance is specifically designed to achieve two primary objectives: stabilizing the labor market and bringing inflation back down to the 2% target.

"Monetary policy is well positioned to stabilize the labor market and return inflation to the 2% target," Williams noted, underscoring his belief that the existing policy framework is appropriate for the current economic climate. This position suggests the Fed sees its strategy as resilient enough to absorb potential shocks without needing immediate adjustments.

US Economic Strength Supports Current Policy

The Fed's patient approach is supported by strong underlying economic indicators. Current forecasts project that the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow at a rate of 2.5% to 2.75% for 2026.

Furthermore, inflation trends are steadily aligning with the Federal Reserve's long-term targets. This combination of healthy growth and moderating inflation gives policymakers room to maintain a stable economic environment without rushing to alter interest rates.

Markets Show Confidence as Fed Stays Course

Financial markets reacted calmly to Williams' remarks, with equity markets showing little change. This stability indicates that investors have confidence in the Federal Reserve's plan and were not anticipating a shift in policy.

Overall, the outlook communicated by Williams is one of cautious optimism. The Fed's policy remains focused on sustaining economic growth while effectively managing any potential challenges on the horizon.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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ACY

Commodity

Forex

· Gold remains structurally bullish, with price consolidating above a key 4H bullish Fair Value Gap after an impulsive expansion.

· The incoming U.S. CPI release is the primary volatility catalyst, likely determining whether price continues higher or retraces into premium demand zones.

· Higher-timeframe structure remains intact, suggesting any CPI-driven pullback is corrective unless key imbalance levels fail.

Structure First, CPI Second

Gold continues to trade at elevated levels, but the current phase is no longer about expansion — it is about acceptance and reaction.

After a strong impulsive leg higher, price has paused and begun consolidating near highs. This behavior is consistent with institutional digestion, not distribution. The market is now positioned in a premium zone, waiting for CPI to provide the next liquidity-driven catalyst.

Rather than invalidating the bullish trend, CPI is more likely to act as a trigger for a retracement into value or a continuation breakout, depending on how inflation data reshapes real yield and dollar expectations.

Drivers with CPI in Focus

Inflation Expectations and Real Yield Sensitivity

Gold is acutely sensitive to inflation outcomes—not simply headline inflation, but how CPI reshapes real interest rate expectations.

· A cooler-than-expected CPI print would reinforce the narrative of easing inflation pressures, likely pushing real yields lower and supporting gold's upside.

· A hotter-than-expected CPI print could temporarily lift yields and the U.S. dollar, pressuring gold in the short term through repricing of policy expectations.

Importantly, even upside CPI surprises may struggle to reverse gold's broader trend unless they signal a sustained re-acceleration of inflation that forces a materially more hawkish stance from the Fed.

Federal Reserve Policy Repricing Risk

CPI remains one of the Federal Reserve's most influential data points. Markets are currently positioned for a policy environment where restrictive conditions cannot be sustained indefinitely.

Gold benefits from:

· Any CPI outcome that reduces confidence in prolonged tight policy

· Evidence that inflation is cooling faster than expected, increasing the probability of policy flexibility

Conversely, CPI-induced volatility can create short-term drawdowns, but these are increasingly viewed by market participants as tactical repositioning opportunities rather than structural reversals.

Safe-Haven Demand Ahead of High-Impact Data

As CPI approaches, risk appetite across equities and risk-sensitive assets often becomes more cautious. This environment typically benefits gold, especially when positioning turns defensive ahead of binary macro events.

Gold's ability to hold elevated levels into major data releases is a signal of underlying strength, suggesting buyers are willing to maintain exposure despite headline risk.

What the Market Is Telling Us

Daily Structure – Trend Integrity Remains Intact

On the daily timeframe, gold continues to print higher highs and higher lows, maintaining bullish market structure despite intermittent volatility.

The recent daily pullbacks have:

· Failed to break structure

· Respected prior demand zones

· Shown rejection wicks rather than sustained bearish closes

This reinforces the idea that sellers lack follow-through at current levels, and that downside moves are primarily liquidity-driven corrections, not trend reversals.

4H Structure – Bullish Fair Value Gap in Control

On the 4-hour chart, gold left behind a clear bullish Fair Value Gap following an aggressive displacement to the upside. Price is currently trading above this imbalance, signaling that buyers remain in control of short-term structure.

This Fair Value Gap represents:

· Institutional inefficiency from aggressive buying

· A high-probability reaction zone if price retraces

· A technical "decision point" ahead of CPI

As long as price holds above or reacts cleanly within this FVG, the bullish narrative remains valid.

CPI as the Liquidity Catalyst

CPI matters not because it changes the trend — but because it determines where liquidity is taken next.

If CPI Prints Softer or In-Line

· Real yields likely compress

· The U.S. dollar weakens or stalls

· Gold holds above the 4H FVG or reacts shallowly

In this scenario, CPI becomes a continuation catalyst, allowing gold to resume expansion toward new highs after rebalancing inefficiencies.

If CPI Prints Hotter Than Expected

· Real yields spike temporarily

· Dollar strength forces a retracement

· Price likely trades back into the bullish Fair Value Gap

This scenario does not automatically invalidate the trend. Instead, it creates a mean-reversion move into value, offering structural confirmation if buyers defend the imbalance zone.

Only a clean breakdown below the FVG with acceptance would suggest a deeper corrective phase.

Technical Outlook

Bullish Scenario: FVG Hold and Expansion

Gold remains bullish if:

· Price respects the 4H bullish Fair Value Gap

· CPI does not force sustained acceptance below imbalance

· Daily structure remains intact

This sets the stage for continuation toward higher premium zones, driven by institutional positioning rather than retail momentum.

Bearish Scenario: Acceptance Below Value

A bearish shift only materializes if:

· CPI triggers a strong displacement below the Fair Value Gap

· Price accepts below imbalance with follow-through

· Daily structure begins to fracture

Without these conditions, downside moves remain corrective within a broader bullish trend.

Final Thoughts

Gold is not breaking down — it is pausing at premium.

The charts show a market that has expanded aggressively, left behind inefficiencies, and is now waiting for CPI to determine how those inefficiencies are resolved. Until proven otherwise, structure favors buy-side control, with Fair Value Gaps acting as the roadmap rather than lagging indicators.

CPI will inject volatility — but structure will decide direction.

Source: ACY

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Nathaniel Wright

Central Bank

Remarks of Officials

Economic

John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stated that current interest rates are appropriately positioned to support sustainable job creation and economic growth while guiding inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.

His confidence stems from the belief that the Federal Reserve has gained better control over risks to its dual mandate, particularly after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projected 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025.

Speaking on January 12 at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York City, Williams affirmed that monetary policy is in a strong position. He is known as a key official who favors a patient approach, preferring to wait for more data before considering further interest rate reductions.

According to the median estimate from the Fed's latest economic forecast in December, policymakers anticipate only a single quarter-point rate reduction this year.

Williams Details a Stable Economic Outlook

Williams provided a specific forecast for the U.S. economy, expressing confidence in the labor market and a predictable path for inflation.

He expects the unemployment rate to hold steady this year before gradually declining over the next few years. Williams noted that key labor market indicators have returned to pre-pandemic levels, signaling a gradual and healthy normalization. "I want to stress that this has been gradual, with no signs of a sudden increase in layoffs or other quick declines," he said.

On the inflation front, Williams suggested that import tariffs implemented under the Trump administration would likely have a one-time effect on prices. He projects inflation to peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year before falling to 2.5% by year-end. He also anticipates that economic growth will continue at an above-average pace.

Despite this outlook, some policymakers have raised concerns about persistent financial strain, as inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target for nearly five years.

A Divided Fed on the Path for Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve is not entirely unified on its interest rate strategy. Minutes from the Fed's December meeting, released on December 30, revealed a divided committee.

The report showed that some officials who voted for a quarter-point rate cut were not fully committed, indicating they could have just as easily supported a decision to hold rates steady. "Some members who favored lowering the policy rate at this meeting mentioned that their decision was very close," the minutes stated.

The release of these minutes immediately impacted market expectations, with the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in January dropping to approximately 15%.

Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander US Capital Markets, commented on the situation. He suggested that the narrow vote in favor of a rate cut highlighted the continued influence of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the near-evenly divided committee.

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Gerik

Economic

Global Finance Leaders Rally to Cut Rare Earth Dependency on China

In a pivotal meeting held in Washington on Monday, finance ministers from the G7 economies and key partner nations discussed the urgent need to reduce dependence on China for critical mineral supplies, particularly rare earth elements. The meeting, convened by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, brought together representatives from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, South Korea, India, and Mexico. The agenda focused on actionable measures to secure and diversify mineral supply chains that are foundational to global industries ranging from defense to renewable energy.

Rather than pursuing an aggressive decoupling, the collective aim was to adopt what Bessent described as “prudent de-risking.” This approach seeks to lower strategic vulnerability to China's market dominance without destabilizing global trade. China currently controls an overwhelming share of critical mineral processing ranging between 47% and 87% across copper, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

This concentration has become a source of significant geopolitical risk, particularly after recent Chinese export restrictions targeting Japan’s dual-use technologies. The urgency of the situation was reinforced by last week’s export ban on materials with both military and civilian applications.

Policy Options: Price Floors, Incentives, and Market Standards

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama underscored a comprehensive framework of short- to long-term responses. These include setting minimum price levels for rare earths to stabilize markets, offering financial and tax incentives to encourage exploration and processing, and creating new trade and tariff structures to support emerging suppliers. A strong emphasis was placed on enforcing ethical and environmental standards, including labor rights, in future supply contracts a shift that could redefine market entry norms and trade eligibility.

This strategy introduces a causal link between strategic policy formation and market rebalancing: by reshaping how demand is fulfilled and what conditions are attached to mineral sourcing, participating countries aim to reduce the systemic leverage currently held by China.

Europe Acknowledges Lag, Vows Independent Action

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil voiced strong support for developing European capacities while cautioning against framing the initiative as an anti-China coalition. He stressed the necessity of increasing EU-level financing, referencing Germany’s new raw materials fund as an example. Klingbeil also emphasized recycling as a vital and underutilized pillar in Europe’s effort to reduce external reliance, citing its untapped potential to broaden domestic supply availability.

His comments underline a growing consensus that Europe must accelerate both state-supported investment and regulatory initiatives to secure independent access to essential minerals. This illustrates not just a correlation but a deliberate causal pathway: policy inaction directly sustains dependence, while proactive financing and regulation can shift structural outcomes.

Structural Imperatives: Security and Sustainability

The strategic minerals at the center of these discussions are essential not only for commercial products like semiconductors and EV batteries but also for national defense and energy resilience. Participants acknowledged that with over 60% of global critical mineral demand coming from this expanded alliance of nations, there exists a powerful incentive to cooperate on joint ventures, stockpiling, and infrastructure development.

The idea of creating a price floor is particularly notable. It represents a market intervention aimed at reducing volatility and incentivizing investment in mining and refining outside of China. While no joint declaration was issued at the end of the meeting, the cohesion among participants suggests continued momentum.

Outlook: From Dialogue to Implementation

Though the talks remain in their early stages, the breadth of participation and alignment signals a turning point in the global minerals landscape. With France set to lead the G7 presidency this year, rare earths and broader supply chain independence are expected to remain central themes. The path forward likely involves a combination of national initiatives and multinational frameworks designed to foster both economic resilience and political autonomy.

The challenge will be converting this broad agreement into actionable frameworks that reshape trade, investment, and industrial policy. As Katayama warned, commitment not rhetoric will determine whether this emerging coalition can rebalance one of the most strategically sensitive supply chains of the modern era.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Nikkei Hits Record on Optimism Over Global and Domestic Catalysts

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index soared to a historic peak on Tuesday, climbing as much as 3.6% to reach 53,814.79, marking a significant bullish milestone for the Japanese equity market. The rally reflected both a delayed reaction to Wall Street’s strong performance and growing investor confidence in the likelihood of domestic stimulus, following reports of a possible snap election by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

After a public holiday earlier in the week, Japanese markets opened with a strong catch-up momentum. The broader Topix index also hit a record, rising 2.4% to 3,599.31, as optimism swept across both export-heavy and technology sectors.

Wall Street Momentum Transfers to Tokyo

The surge followed two consecutive sessions of gains in U.S. markets, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both reached all-time highs. Technology stocks were standout performers, lifting global sentiment and contributing to an upbeat tone in Asian trading. The Nikkei’s rally mirrored the enthusiasm seen globally, suggesting that external tailwinds remain a powerful force behind asset price appreciation.

A key domestic catalyst for Japan’s market surge came from mounting speculation that Prime Minister Takaichi may dissolve parliament and call an early general election. According to the leader of coalition partner Ishin, Takaichi has been actively weighing the political move, with local media reporting a possible election as soon as next month. This would be her first electoral test since taking office in October and could be an attempt to consolidate her support amid strong approval ratings.

The potential for a snap election has driven market expectations of expanded fiscal spending, as governments often accompany such moves with voter-friendly stimulus measures. This narrative has strengthened investor belief in a policy mix that includes a weaker yen, rising equity valuations, and declining bond prices factors typically associated with expansionary fiscal strategies.

Causal Link Between Election Hopes and Market Rally

The rally in Japanese equities appears to be causally linked to the prospect of political developments that could lead to increased public spending. The expectation that a successful election would empower Takaichi to implement broader fiscal measures has shifted investor behavior toward risk-on positioning, particularly in sectors benefiting from yen depreciation and global demand strength.

Investor enthusiasm was further amplified by the yen’s depreciation, which enhances the overseas earnings potential of Japanese exporters. The yen was notably weaker compared to Friday’s close, offering a tailwind for automakers and technology companies.

Toyota Motor surged by 5.1%, while Subaru advanced 4.1%, reflecting stronger outlooks for their international revenue streams. However, the most pronounced gains came from semiconductor-related firms. Advantest, a leading chip-testing equipment manufacturer, soared 8.4%, and Tokyo Electron, which produces chip-making tools, jumped 7.7%. These moves align with a broader global trend of bullish sentiment toward high-tech manufacturing amid strong U.S. tech earnings.

Investors Downplay U.S. Fed Probe, Focus on Domestic Fundamentals

Notably, Japanese investors remained relatively unaffected by ongoing political turbulence in the U.S., including the Department of Justice’s criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While the investigation has rattled global markets and raised concerns about the Fed’s independence, Japanese equities appeared to decouple from that risk narrative, focusing instead on localized political and economic signals.

With both domestic political developments and global tailwinds driving Japanese equities higher, investor attention will likely remain fixated on signals from the Prime Minister’s office regarding the timing and scope of any early election. Should the election be confirmed, and fiscal stimulus measures accompany it, markets could see continued momentum.

However, the sustainability of the rally may also depend on global monetary stability and how Japanese policymakers balance fiscal expansion with inflationary control. For now, the combination of political optimism, a softer yen, and strong global cues has propelled Japan’s stock market into uncharted territory.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Rupee Faces Renewed Pressure Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Regional Weakness

The Indian rupee opened under pressure on Tuesday as a confluence of geopolitical tensions and regional currency weakness continued to weigh on investor confidence. The 1-month non-deliverable forward market projected the rupee trading between 90.22 and 90.26 per U.S. dollar, slightly lower than Monday’s close at 90.1525. This decline reflects growing anxiety around U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff warning and the broader risk-off mood in Asia following political instability in the United States.

On Monday, Trump announced that countries conducting business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on U.S. trade, a move that has yet to be formally codified or clarified through official policy documents. Despite the ambiguity, the announcement has intensified market fears due to India’s long-standing energy and trade ties with Iran. India is among the top destinations for Iranian goods, making it potentially vulnerable if the U.S. adopts a broad interpretation of the new sanctions.

The threat arrives at a time when India is already contending with an existing 50% U.S. tariff on certain exports one of the highest among major trading partners. The combination of escalating trade barriers and geopolitical tensions has reinforced downward pressure on the rupee, which has already weakened by approximately 0.3% in January following a 5% decline over the course of 2025.

Intervention Offers Temporary Relief, But Trend Remains Weak

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intervened at several key moments to stabilize the rupee, including a notable recovery last month after the currency briefly touched an all-time low of 91.0750. However, according to foreign exchange traders, the overall trajectory remains skewed to the downside. Absent a significant reversal in capital flows or a relaxation of global pressure points, the rupee is likely to re-test and potentially breach record lows.

A currency trader at a global bank emphasized that unless there is a “meaningful shift in flows,” further depreciation seems inevitable. The sentiment reflects not only India’s specific trade dynamics but also broader macroeconomic forces now being shaped by both U.S. domestic politics and global risk aversion.

Regional Context: Weakness Across Asia and U.S. Political Risk Spillover

The rupee’s decline is mirrored across Asian currencies, many of which have also slipped amid concerns over political risks in the United States. The announcement of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has sparked a new wave of uncertainty over the independence of U.S. monetary policy, contributing to general investor unease and shifting capital flows away from emerging markets.

While the direct connection between the Powell probe and the rupee is more correlational than causal, the overall environment of instability and lack of policy clarity in the U.S. amplifies risk sensitivity for vulnerable emerging markets like India.

Key Market Indicators Reflect Bearish Sentiment

Broader market indicators support the bearish narrative for the rupee. The U.S. dollar index was up at 98.97, suggesting sustained dollar strength against a basket of global currencies. Brent crude, a key input for India’s import bill, rose modestly by 0.2% to $64 per barrel, adding to concerns over trade imbalances. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered at 4.18%, reflecting resilience in U.S. bond markets despite political noise.

Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers, offloading $409 million in Indian equities and $14.2 million in Indian bonds on January 9, according to NSDL data. These persistent outflows highlight continued capital flight and reinforce downward momentum on the rupee.

Outlook: Persistent Vulnerability Amid External Shocks

As long as geopolitical tensions and policy ambiguity persist, the rupee is likely to face sustained depreciation pressure. While the RBI may offer tactical support, the structural factors undermining confidence in the currency including trade risks, foreign investor outflows, and global volatility continue to dominate.

Without a clear reversal in either geopolitical rhetoric or capital market behavior, the rupee’s trajectory suggests a return to record lows may not be far off. The key inflection points ahead will likely be tied to whether Trump’s tariff threats materialize into policy and whether India can navigate shifting alliances without further economic disruption.

Source: Reuters

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Germany's Military Rise Sparks Fear in France

A Mix of Relief and Anxiety in Paris

The Old Franco-German Balance Is Dead

Frictions in European Defense Cooperation

Germany's New Influence in NATO

The Political Risk: A Resurgent Far-Right

Fed's Williams: No Rush to Cut Interest Rates

Why the Fed is Holding Rates Steady

US Economic Strength Supports Current Policy

Markets Show Confidence as Fed Stays Course

Gold Forecast: CPI As The Key Catalyst For The Next XAUUSD Move

Structure First, CPI Second

Drivers with CPI in Focus

Federal Reserve Policy Repricing Risk

Safe-Haven Demand Ahead of High-Impact Data

What the Market Is Telling Us

The recent daily pullbacks have:

4H Structure – Bullish Fair Value Gap in Control

This Fair Value Gap represents:

CPI as the Liquidity Catalyst

If CPI Prints Softer or In-Line

If CPI Prints Hotter Than Expected

Technical Outlook

Bearish Scenario: Acceptance Below Value

Final Thoughts

Source: ACY

Fed's Williams: Interest Rates Are Correct, Cuts on Hold

Williams Details a Stable Economic Outlook

A Divided Fed on the Path for Rate Cuts

G7 and Partners Seek Strategic Break from Chinese Rare Earth Dominance

Global Finance Leaders Rally to Cut Rare Earth Dependency on China

Policy Options: Price Floors, Incentives, and Market Standards

Europe Acknowledges Lag, Vows Independent Action

Structural Imperatives: Security and Sustainability

Outlook: From Dialogue to Implementation

Source: Reuters

Nikkei Soars to Record High on Wall Street Gains and Early Election Hopes

Nikkei Hits Record on Optimism Over Global and Domestic Catalysts

Wall Street Momentum Transfers to Tokyo

Causal Link Between Election Hopes and Market Rally

Investors Downplay U.S. Fed Probe, Focus on Domestic Fundamentals

Source: Reuters

Indian Rupee Slides as Trump’s Tariff Threat and Weak Asia FX Undermine Sentiment

Rupee Faces Renewed Pressure Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Regional Weakness

Intervention Offers Temporary Relief, But Trend Remains Weak

Regional Context: Weakness Across Asia and U.S. Political Risk Spillover

Key Market Indicators Reflect Bearish Sentiment

Outlook: Persistent Vulnerability Amid External Shocks

Source: Reuters

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