Former Hong Kong Pro-democracy Media Mogul Jimmy Lai Convicted In Landmark National Security Trial

Political

Summary:

Jimmy Lai , the pro-democracy former Hong Kong media mogul and outspoken critic of Beijing, was convicted in a landmark national security trial in the city's court on Monday, which could send him to prison for the rest of his life.

Hong kong pro-democracy media mogul Jimmy Lai poses during an interview with AFP at the Next Digital offices in Hong Kong, June 16, 2020. AFP-Yonhap

Three government-vetted judges found Lai, 78, guilty of conspiring with others to collude with foreign forces to endanger national security and conspiracy to publish seditious articles. He pleaded not guilty to all charges.

Lai, 78, was arrested in August 2020 under a Beijing-imposed national security law that was implemented following massive anti-government protests in 2019. During his five years in custody, Lai has been sentenced for several lesser offenses, and appears to have grown more frail and thinner.

Among the attendees were Lai's wife and son, and Hong Kong's Roman Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen. Lai pressed his lips and nodded to his family before being escorted out of the courtroom by guards.

Lai's trial , conducted without a jury, has been closely monitored by the U.S., Britain, the European Union and political observers as a barometer of media freedom and judicial independence in the former British colony, which returned to Chinese rule in 1997.

His verdict is also a test for Beijing's diplomatic ties. U.S. President Donald Trump said he has raised the case with China, and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said his government has made it a priority to secure the release of Lai, who is a British citizen.

The founder of the now-defunct pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily was convicted on two counts of conspiracy to commit collusion with foreign forces to endanger national security, in addition to one count of conspiracy to distribute seditious publications.

Under Hong Kong's sweeping national security law, the collusion charge could result in a sentence ranging from three years in jail to life imprisonment, depending on the offense's nature and his role in it. The sedition charge carries a maximum of two years' imprisonment. A four-day mitigation hearing was set to begin Jan. 12 for Lai to argue for a shorter sentence.

The Apple Daily was a vocal critic of the Hong Kong government and the ruling Chinese Communist Party. It was forced to shut in 2021 after police raided its newsroom and arrested its senior journalists, with authorities freezing its assets .

During Lai's 156-day trial, prosecutors accused him of conspiring with senior executives of Apple Daily and others to request foreign forces to impose sanctions or blockades and engage in other hostile activities against Hong Kong or China.

The prosecution also accused Lai of making such requests, highlighting his meetings with former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in July 2019 at the height of the protests.

It also presented 161 publications , including Apple Daily articles, to the court as evidence of conspiracy to publish seditious materials, as well as social media posts and text messages.

Reading from an 855-page verdict, Judge Esther Toh said that the evidence showed Lai had been thinking about what leverage the U.S. could use against China long before the security law and said he extended "constant invitations" to the U.S. to help bring down the Chinese government. She said he used helping the people Hong Kong as an excuse.

She said the court was satisfied that Lai was the "mastermind" of the conspiracies and that the only reasonable inference from the evidence was that Lai's intent was to seek the downfall of the ruling Communist Party even at the sacrifice of the people of China and Hong Kong.

Lai testified for 52 days in his own defense, arguing that he had not called for foreign sanctions after the sweeping security law was imposed in June 2020.

Teresa Lai, center, and Lai Shun-yan, right, the respective wife and son of pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai, and Cardinal Joseph Zen, left, the former bishop of Hong Kong, arrive at the West Kowloon Law Courts building for Lai's expected verdicts in the national security trial in Hong Kong, Dec. 15. AFP-Yonhap

His legal team also argued for freedom of expression.

As the trial progressed, Lai's health appeared to be deteriorating.

Lai's lawyers in August told the court that he suffered from heart palpitations. His daughter Claire told The Associated Press that her father has become weaker and skinnier, and lost some of his nails and teeth. She also said he suffered from infections for months, along with constant back pain, diabetes, heart issues and high blood pressure.

"His spirit is strong but his body is failing," she said.

Hong Kong's government said no abnormalities were found during a medical examination that followed Lai's complaint of heart problems. It added this month that the medical services provided to him were "adequate and comprehensive."

Before sunrise, dozens of residents queued outside the court building to secure a courtroom seat.

Former Apple Daily employee Tammy Cheung arrived at 5 a.m., saying she wanted to know about Lai's condition after reports of his health.

She said she felt the process was being rushed since the verdict date was announced only last Friday, but added, "I'm relieved that this case can at least conclude soon."

Originally scheduled to start in December 2022, Lai's trial was postponed to December 2023 as authorities blocked a British lawyer from representing him, citing national security risks.

In 2022, Lai was sentenced to five years and nine months in prison over separate fraud charges involving lease violations at Apple Daily's headquarters. He was also previously sentenced for his roles in unauthorized assemblies in other cases related to the 2019 protests.

Source: Koreatimes

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Gerik

Economic

Consumer Spending Falters Despite Policy Pledges

Fresh data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics reveals a sobering picture of the world’s second-largest economy: retail sales in November rose a mere 1.3% year-over-year, significantly below the 2.8% forecast and a sharp slowdown from October’s 2.9% gain. This figure reflects not only subdued household consumption but also the broader structural weakness in China’s post-pandemic recovery, where domestic demand has failed to gain meaningful traction.

Retail performance was further hampered by a fall in auto sales and a weaker-than-expected Singles’ Day shopping season. While platforms extended promotional periods, gross merchandise value only grew 12%, compared to 20% in 2024. According to Syntun, this suggests consumers are still wary about spending amid economic uncertainty.

Industrial Output and Investment Also Disappoint

The malaise isn’t limited to consumer spending. Industrial production increased 4.8% in November, slightly below the 5% forecast, while fixed asset investment an important gauge of long-term confidence fell 2.6% between January and November. This decline was the steepest since 2020 and deeper than the 2.3% contraction predicted by economists.

The property sector remains a key drag. Real estate investment plummeted 15.9% in the first 11 months of 2025, with new home prices in tier-1 cities dropping 1.2% and resale prices falling 5.8% year-on-year. The steepening drop across 70 major cities signals that the bottom of the housing slump may still be out of reach.

Policy Response: Stimulus Plans Gain Momentum

In response to the deteriorating indicators, Chinese policymakers have pledged more fiscal support. The Ministry of Finance announced plans to issue ultra-long-term special bonds in 2026, with proceeds aimed at infrastructure, equipment upgrades, and consumer trade-in programs. Additionally, an increase in the central government budget for investment is being planned to reverse the ongoing slump in fixed asset investment.

Still, the outlook remains clouded. As Zhiwei Zhang from Pinpoint Asset Management noted, the weakening in investment and falling property prices are eroding consumer sentiment, making stronger, faster policy intervention essential especially in Q1 2026.

Structural Concerns and Global Imbalance

Despite domestic headwinds, China’s trade remains robust. The country posted a record trade surplus of $1.1 trillion by November, already surpassing the 2024 full-year record. However, this raises global concerns about China’s continued overreliance on exports. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently urged Beijing to pivot more decisively toward internal consumption.

Economist Eswar Prasad echoed this sentiment, warning of unsustainable growth patterns. In a recent article, he highlighted the urgent need for structural reforms such as enhancing the labor market, strengthening social safety nets, and revitalizing private enterprise to restore consumer confidence and rebalance the economy.

November’s data shows a clear deceleration in China’s consumer economy, industrial output, and investment confidence. While the government’s pledge to expand fiscal spending and issue long-dated bonds signals a willingness to act, economists remain concerned about the lack of urgency and clarity around structural reforms. With unemployment stagnant at 5.1% and domestic demand weak, China may struggle to meet its “around 5%” growth target in 2026 unless bold and targeted measures are rolled out soon.

Source: CNBC

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Commodity

Iron ore futures declined, after top buyer China announced it would introduce a licensing system on the export of certain steel products from next year.

The steelmaking ingredient fell as much as 1.6%, after the Ministry of Commerce said Friday that exporters must seek permission from Jan. 1 to ship a broad range of products, including steel used in construction, cars and consumer goods.

The ministry did not give a reason for the new regulations, but the move comes as China's steel exports are on track for a record in 2025. Shipments exceeded 100 million tons in the year through November, according to the most recent trade data, despite rising trade barriers.

China is pushing for its steel to move up the value chain by reducing the proportion of low value-added products in its export mix, industry consultancy Mysteel said in a note. "China's steel industry is facing an unprecedented pressure for transition," it said, adding that the new policy aligns with Beijing's carbon-emission goals.

Producers of low value-added products may shift a proportion of their exports to the domestic market in the short term, Mysteel said, while shipments to markets in Africa and Latin America might also increase. The share of high-end "green" steel products in the export mix would increase gradually, the consultancy said.

Meanwhile, China's crude steel production fell for a sixth straight month. The country produced a little under 70 million tons in November, down 11% from a year earlier, China's statistics bureau said on Monday. That left the year-to-date figure 4% behind last year's.

Iron ore futures fell 1.3% to $100.70 a ton in Singapore as of 11:00 a.m. local time, following a 1.4% drop last week. Yuan-priced futures in Dalian declined 1.3%. Steel futures in Shanghai edged higher.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Market Sentiment: Fear Overshadows Fundamentals

The U.S. stock market ended last week on a sour note, with tech stocks leading the retreat. Broadcom fell over 11% on Friday despite delivering earnings and guidance that exceeded analyst expectations. Instead of rewarding the company’s robust AI-driven performance, investors zeroed in on lower margins and uncertainty surrounding major deals, triggering a chain reaction across related AI players including Nvidia, AMD, and Oracle.

This wave of pessimism reflects a deeper anxiety about what some are calling an "AI bubble" a narrative that, although speculative, has begun to exert real influence on short-term trading behavior. The S&P 500 dropped 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 1.6% for the week, even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 1.1%, thanks to resilience in financial stocks.

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Ironically, Broadcom’s AI momentum is not in question. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon reaffirmed a “buy” rating, citing that the company’s AI story is “not only overdelivering but doing it at an accelerating rate.” UBS also remains optimistic, projecting strong 2026 performance driven by themes like artificial intelligence, power infrastructure, and longevity.

Yet, the current market mood suggests that even strong fundamentals may not be enough in the near term. With valuations stretched and earnings volatility looming, investors are in a risk-off mindset quick to punish any hint of imperfection, even in market darlings.

Broader Tech Pressure and AI Skepticism

This week’s tech weakness was part of a larger pattern, not just a Broadcom-specific story. The Nasdaq’s underperformance aligns with growing scrutiny over AI-driven business models and a potential recalibration of investor expectations. As the AI theme matures, markets may begin to favor cash flow certainty over speculative future growth.

Oracle’s firm denial of delays in its data center timeline contrary to Bloomberg reports was one attempt to steady the ship. Yet, without more concrete positive signals, such as profitable deliveries or margin improvement in AI services, skepticism may linger.

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Beyond tech, macroeconomic factors added to the cautious tone. The U.K. reported a surprise 0.1% contraction in GDP over the three months to October, signaling weakness in Europe. Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and China over agricultural trade and domestic production continue to influence global strategy, with Goldman Sachs suggesting domestic plays in China’s agriculture sector as a hedge.

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Broadcom’s sell-off despite strong results underscores a fragile investor psyche one where valuation jitters, AI fatigue, and geopolitical instability converge. Until markets receive more affirming news be it Oracle’s positive cash flow or policy clarity from Brussels the appetite for tech risk may remain subdued. In a market that seems to demand perfection, even excellence may not be enough.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Central Bank

New Zealand's central bank expects to maintain the Official Cash Rate at current levels for some time if economic conditions evolve as expected, Governor Anna Breman said. The kiwi dollar fell.

"The forward path for the OCR published in the November MPS indicates a slight probability of another rate cut in the near term," Breman said in a statement Monday in Wellington. "However, if economic conditions evolve as expected the OCR is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25% for some time."

The Reserve Bank signaled last month it had likely finished cutting interest rates after 325 basis points of easing. Financial markets have since begun to price a rate hike from the third quarter next year and Westpac Banking Corp. last week raised some home-loan interest rates.

"Financial market conditions have tightened since the November decision, beyond what is implied by our central projection for the OCR," Breman said.

New Zealand's dollar fell after the statement, buying 57.8 US cents at 3:20 p.m. in Wellington from 58.08 cents.

Breman said the economy is evolving "broadly in line" with the RBNZ's expectations, and the central bank is confident that inflation will reach the 2% target by mid-2026.

Economists expect gross domestic product grew 0.8% in the third quarter, twice the pace the RBNZ projected in the November statement. The GDP report is due Dec. 18.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Justin

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Commodity

The Middle Eastern oil market has weakened in recent weeks on concern that regional supplies will outstrip demand, adding to signs of a softening global picture that's weighed on benchmark crude futures.

Among widely watched metrics, the premium of Abu Dhabi's flagship Murban over Brent has declined to the narrowest since early October. The shift signals concern too much crude is being offered in the Middle East than can readily be bought by refiners in Asia at a time of higher, competing worldwide output.

Global benchmark Brent is on pace for a third year of declines, as expectations that worldwide supplies will exceed consumption outweigh geopolitical concerns. Members of OPEC, including Mideast shippers such as Saudi Arabia, have added barrels just as rival drillers in the Americas also bolster output.

Reflecting the abundant availability of near-term supplies, state producer Saudi Aramco recently cut the price of its flagship crude grade for Asia to the lowest level in five years. In addition, the Paris-based International Energy Agency forecasts that there will be a record global crude glut next year.

"The surplus in the oil market is set to grow in 2026, following OPEC+'s decision to unwind supply cuts at a quicker-than-expected pace," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. "Non-OPEC supply is also expected to grow at a healthy clip despite this year's price weakness."

Other markers in the Middle East are also flashing weakness. Among them, the Dubai benchmark's discount to Brent, known as the Brent-Dubai EFS, was recently at its widest in about seven weeks.

Within the region, differentials between some spot crudes and the Dubai benchmark have softened, according to General Index. Upper Zakum and Oman had a 50- to 60-cent premium to Dubai at the end of last week, down from about 90 cents at the start of the month.

On a global basis, ING forecasts supply will rise 2.1 million barrels a day next year, while demand expands about 800,000 barrels. The IEA, meanwhile, projects output will exceed consumption by 3.8 million barrels a day in 2026.

"The scale of the surplus and the expected build in inventory should put the forward curve under additional pressure," said Patterson, referring to the pricing of crude over the coming months.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Winkelmann

Forex

Economic

The Thai baht climbed to the highest in more than four years, heaping pressure on the central bank to stem the rally ahead of its policy decision this week.

The Bank of Thailand tightened gold traders' foreign exchange forward transactions on Monday after the currency edged higher to 31.523 per dollar, holding at the strongest since June 2021. The baht has advanced more than 8% this year, making it the second best performer in Asia amid record gold prices and a weaker greenback.

The currency's persistent strength is putting pressure on the BOT to signal further easing at its meeting on Wednesday as the nation's exporters feel the added pinch from new US tariffs. While officials have managed to weaken gold's influence on the baht, the current peak tourism season is giving the currency fresh tailwinds.

"We see the excessive baht strength as unwelcome given sluggish growth, disinflation, and political uncertainty," Wee Khoon Chong, a senior strategist at BNY, wrote in a note to clients. "Baht strength is one reason we still see easing risk in 2026."

The baht's rally may lose some steam as an ongoing border clash between Thailand and Cambodia undermines investor confidence. Political risk is also set to weigh ahead of an election to be held as early as January.

The baht is likely to continue to benefit from a softer US dollar environment and positive fourth quarter seasonality, Barclays Bank Plc strategists including Audrey Ong wrote in a note to clients. That said, "baht political risk premium could build into the new year should it take time to form the new government."