Fed's Waller: December Cut Appropriate, But January Action More Uncertain

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have agreed to the broad terms of a deal that would support a new oil pipeline to Canada's west coast, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reported Monday.

Currently Canada has rules which Smith and industry observers say deter investors from committing to a new conduit to ferry Alberta's oil to the coast of British Columbia, and then to Asian markets. The most obvious legal block is a ban on tankers carrying oil off the northern British Columbia coast.

The federal and provincial leaders are set to announce a milestone deal granting special exemptions and "political support" to a new pipeline at a press conference in Calgary, Alberta, on Thursday, the report said, citing anonymous sources. Carve-outs would be contingent on commitments to stricter carbon pricing and a "multi-billion-dollar investment" in carbon capture from a group of oil sands companies called the Pathways Alliance, the story added.

Such a deal would mark a breakthrough in the tense relationship between the Ottawa-based-federal government, which strengthened environmental protections under previous Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the conservative oil-rich province.

A new oil pipeline is totemic for some Albertans who say the federal government holds back their province's economic potential. The idea has gained wider support as Canada attempts to diversify its exports away from the US, after President Donald Trump's tariffs and remarks about making Canada a US state. Currently, most all of Canada's oil — among the country's largest exports — is sent south. But adding export capacity runs up against the country's ambitions to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

"We hope to have more to share in the coming days," a spokesperson for Premier Smith's office said by phone, declining to elaborate on specifics. The Prime Minister's office declined to comment.

British Columbia Premier David Eby has expressed vehement opposition to a new pipeline, and cites Indigenous leaders from the region who are also against the idea. He's said forcing through a pipeline could jeopardize Indigenous support for other major projects in BC like liquefied natural gas facilities.

However, Eby does not have a legal veto power. BC was unsuccessful when mounted court challenges to the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which was completed last year and can carry 890,000 barrels of oil per day to the Vancouver area.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Bitcoin investors received an unexpected shock today as the leading cryptocurrency's price tumbled below the critical $88,000 threshold. According to real-time market data from Bitcoin World, BTC is currently trading at $87,975.05 on the Binance USDT market, marking a significant downturn that has caught many traders by surprise.

What's Driving This Bitcoin Price Decline?

The sudden drop in Bitcoin price below $88,000 represents one of the most notable market movements this week. Several factors appear to be contributing to this downward pressure. Market analysts point to increased regulatory concerns, profit-taking by early investors, and broader economic uncertainties as potential catalysts. However, experienced cryptocurrency traders understand that such fluctuations are normal in the volatile digital asset space.

How Significant Is This Bitcoin Price Movement?

While any drop below a major psychological level like $88,000 grabs headlines, context matters greatly. The current Bitcoin price represents:

Many analysts suggest this could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors who believe in Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition.

What Should Bitcoin Investors Do Now?

Facing a declining Bitcoin price requires strategic thinking rather than emotional reactions. Consider these approaches:

Where Could the Bitcoin Price Go From Here?

Technical analysts are watching several key levels closely. The $85,000 zone represents major support, while resistance sits around $92,000. The current Bitcoin price action suggests we might see continued volatility in the coming days. However, many long-term indicators remain positive for cryptocurrency overall.

Understanding Market Cycles in Cryptocurrency

Experienced investors recognize that Bitcoin price movements often follow predictable patterns. The current correction, while concerning to newcomers, fits within historical market behavior. Previous cycles have shown that such dips often precede periods of consolidation and eventual recovery.

The recent Bitcoin price drop below $88,000 serves as a reminder of cryptocurrency's inherent volatility. While short-term movements can be dramatic, the fundamental case for Bitcoin remains strong. Technological adoption continues growing, institutional interest persists, and the network effect strengthens daily. Smart investors use these moments to reassess their strategies rather than panic.

Source: CryptoSlate

Tyson Foods' decision to close a beef plant that employs nearly one third of residents of Lexington, Nebraska, could devastate the small city and undermine the profits of ranchers nationwide.

Closing a single slaughterhouse might not seem significant, but the Lexington plant employs roughly 3,200 people in the city of 11,000 and has the capacity to slaughter some 5,000 head of cattle a day. Tyson also plans to cut one of the two shifts at a plant in Amarillo, Texas, and eliminate 1,700 jobs there. Together those two moves will reduce beef processing capacity nationwide by 7-9%.

Consumers may not see prices change much at the grocery store over the next six months because all the cattle that are now being prepared for slaughter will still be processed, potentially just at a different plant. But in the long run, beef prices may continue to climb even higher than the current record highs — caused by a variety of factors from drought to tariffs — unless American ranchers decide to raise more cattle, which they have little incentive to do.

An increase in beef imports from Brazil, like President Donald Trump encouraged last week by slashing tariffs on the South American country, may help insulate consumers while ranchers and feedlots struggle with high costs and falling prices.

Here's what we know about the impact of the plant closure and the changing tariffs:

A 'gut punch' to the community

Clay Patton, vice president of the Lexington-area Chamber of Commerce said Monday that Tyson's announcement Friday felt like a "gut punch" to the community in the Platte River Valley that serves as a key link in the agricultural production chain.

When it opened in 1990, the Lexington plant that Tyson later acquired revitalized and remade the formerly dwindling town by attracting thousands of immigrants to work there and nearly doubling the population.

When the plant closes in January, the ripple effects will be felt throughout the community, undermining many first-generation business owners and the investment in new housing, Patton said. Tyson said it will offer Lexington workers the chance to move to take open jobs at one of its other plants if they are willing to uproot their families for jobs hundreds of miles away.

"I'm hopeful that we can come through this and we'll actually become better on the other side of it," Patton said.

Elmer Armijo was struck by how established the community when he moved to Lexington last summer to lead First United Methodist Church. He described solid job security, good schools and health care systems and urban development — all in doubt now.

"People are completely worried," Armijo said. "The economy in Lexington is based in Tyson."

Many local churches, Armijo's included, are already offering counseling, food pantries and gas vouchers for community members.

Cattle prices falling in response

The prospect of losing a major buyer for cattle and increasing imports from Brazil, which already accounted for 24% of the beef brought into the country this year, only adds to doubts about how profitable the U.S. cattle business might be over the next several years, making it less likely that American ranchers will commit to raising more animals.

"There's a just a lack of confidence in the industry right now. And producers are unwilling to make the investment to rebuild," said Bill Bullard, president of Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America.

Boosting imports from Brazil has the potential to affect the market — much more than Trump's suggestion to increase imports from Argentina — since the country sends more beef to America than any other. But for steak lovers, the sky-high price of the cut isn't likely to be affected regardless, as most imports are lean trimmings that get mixed into ground beef.

Kansas State University agricultural economist Glynn Tonsor said it's hard to predict whether imports will continue to account for roughly 20% of the U.S. beef supply next year. He pointed out that Trump's tariffs have changed several times since they were announced in the spring and could quickly change again.

The only constant in the equation has been that consumers have continued to buy beef even as prices soar. Tonsor said on average Americans will consume 59 pounds (27 kilograms) of beef per person this year.

Tyson faces continued losses in the beef business

There has long been excess capacity in the meat business nationwide, meaning the nation's slaughterhouses could handle many more cattle than they are processing. That has only been made worse in recent years as the government has encouraged more smaller companies to open slaughterhouses to compete with Tyson and the other giants that dominate the beef business.

Tyson expects to lose more than $600 million on beef production this year after already reporting $720 million of red ink in beef over the past two years.

Tonsor said it was inevitable that at least one beef plant would close. Afterward, Tyson's remaining plants will be able to operate more efficiently at closer to full capacity.

Ernie Goss, an economist at Creighton University in Omaha, said the Lexington plant likely wasn't measuring up in the industry increasingly reliant on technological advancements that enhance productivity.

"It's very difficult to renovate or make the old plant fit the new world," said Goss, who completed an impact study for a new Sustainable Beef plant. The Lexington facility "just wasn't competitive right now in today's environment in terms of output per worker."

Source: Yahoo Finance

Bolsonaro told a hearing that he suffered medication-induced paranoia which prompted him to tamper with his ankle monitor [FILE: July 6, 2024]

A panel of four Supreme Court judges unanimously upheld on Monday a decision to incarcerate Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro, after he was arrested over the weekend when he tampered with his ankle monitor.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered Bolsonaro's detention on Saturday, citing fears he might try to escape custody if allowed to stay on house arrest, where he has been awaiting an appeal against his 27-year prison sentence for plotting a failed coup.

On Monday, Justices Flavio Dino, Cristiano Zanin and Carmen Lucia upheld de Moraes' order.

Why did Bolsonaro get arrested?

On Saturday, Brazilian authorities said the former, far-right president took a soldering iron to his ankle monitor.

De Moraes ruled on Monday that Bolsonaro had "willfully and consciously violated the electronic monitoring equipment."

The justice pointed at "very serious indications of a possible attempt to flee" during a vigil which Bolsonaro's son organized on Saturday outside his home, near the US embassy.

De Moraes added that the location and Bolsonaro's close ties to US President Donald Trump are further indicators that he may have tried to escape to the embassy to seek US asylum.

Authorities said the former, far-right president took a soldering iron to his ankle monitorImage: SEAPE/REUTERS

What did Bolsonaro say about tampering with the ankle monitor?

On Sunday, Bolsonaro told a hearing that he suffered medication-induced paranoia between Friday and Saturday, which was to blame for his tampering with the ankle monitor.

The former president said he "had no intention of fleeing."

The French AFP news agency cited another testimony by Bolsonaro in a video made public by the court, in which he reportedly said he used the soldering iron on the bracelet out of "curiosity."

Bolsonaro was convicted in September of plotting to overturn the 2022 election result that brought leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to office.

Source: DW

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday signed an executive order aimed at launching a pan-government venture to build an integrated artificial intelligence platform that will use federal scientific data.

The venture, which Trump called the "Genesis Mission," aims to boost scientific research and fast track discoveries by using AI and massive government scientific datasets.

"The Genesis Mission will build an integrated AI platform to harness Federal scientific datasets… to train scientific foundation models and create AI agents to test new hypotheses, automate research workflows, and accelerate scientific breakthroughs," Trump wrote in the order.

The effort will involve the Department of Energy, the National Science and Technology Council, and U.S. National Laboratories, the order said.

Trump instructed the DOE to create a government AI experimentation platform integrating U.S. supercomputers and data to create foundation AI models and also power robotic laboratories.

Trump has touted U.S. dominance in AI as a main goal for his administration, and has also prioritized beating China in the technology. He had earlier this year ordered his administration to produce an AI action plan to maker the U.S. the "world capital" in AI.

Source: Investing

AUDUSD – Last Friday's bounce from new three-month low (bears were contained by the top of thick weekly Ichimoku cloud) was repeatedly obstructed by broken 200DMA (0.6458 – reverted to resistance)

Monday's action is moving within limited range and shaped in long-legged Doji candle and signals indecision.

Conflicting fundamental signals (the latest dovish comments from Fed official revived expectations of December rate cut but countered by still prevailing concerns about inflation that may keep the central bank's rates on hold next month) contribute to the current situation.

Investors also focus on Australia's inflation report (due on Wednesday and the first time to be released on monthly basis, replacing old system of quarterly reports).

Technical picture remains bearishly aligned on daily chart (MA's in bearish setup / negative momentum), with reaction on 200DMA to provide fresh signal.

Close above the moving average (0.6458, also Fibo 23.6% of 0.6580/0.6412) to add fresh optimism, though more work at the upside (lift above 0.6500 zone) needed to verify signal.

Conversely, repeated close below 200DMA to keep the downside at increased risk of violation of Aug 21 low (0.6414) and nearby Fibo 38.2% of larger 0.5914/0.6706 (0.6404).

Res: 0.6467; 0.6481; 0.6500; 0.6520

Sup: 0.6421; 0.6414; 0.6372; 0.6350

Source: ACTIONFOREX