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Bank Of England Governor Bailey: There Is Disagreement On Whether To Act Quickly Or Continue To Wait And See
The U.S. Core PCE Price Index Rose 0.1% Month-on-month In June, The Smallest Increase Since March 2025
The Number Of Continuing Claims For Unemployment Benefits In The U.S. For The Week Ended July 18 Stood At 1.782 Million, Compared With An Expectation Of 1.798 Million And A Previously Reported Figure Of 1.796 Million Revised Upward To 1.789 Million
The Four-week Moving Average Of Initial Jobless Claims In The U.S. For The Week Ended July 25 Stood At 202,750, Revised From The Previous Figure Of 207,500 To 207,750
U.S. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Rose By 0.4% Month-over-month In June, With The Prior Reading Revised Upward From 0.30% To 0.4%
The Core PCE Price Index For June In The United States Rose By 0.1% Month-over-month, Below The Expected 0.2% And The Previous Reading Of 0.30%
U.S. Personal Spending Rose By 0.3% Month-over-month In June, Matching Expectations Of 0.3%, While The Prior Month's Figure Was Revised Upward From 0.70% To 0.9%
The U.S. June PCE Price Index Posted A Monthly Change Of -0.1%, Matching The Forecast Of -0.10%, While The Prior Reading Was Revised Upward From 0.40% To 0.5%
The Preliminary Annualized Quarterly Rate Of The U.S. PCE Price Index For Q2 Was 5.1%, Compared To 4.6% In The Previous Quarter
The Preliminary Estimate For U.S. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) In The Second Quarter Rose At An Annualized Rate Of 3.2%, Compared With An Expectation Of 2.3% And A Previous Reading Of 0.50%
The U.S. Core PCE Price Index Year-over-year Rate For June Was 3.3%, In Line With The Expected 3.30% And Down From The Previous Reading Of 3.40%
The Preliminary Annualized Quarterly Rate Of The U.S. Core PCE Price Index For The Second Quarter Came In At 3.4%, Versus An Expectation Of 3.5% And A Previous Reading Of 4.40%
The Preliminary Annualized Quarter-over-quarter Rate Of Final Sales In The U.S. For Q2 Was 2.2%, Versus An Expectation Of 2% And A Previous Reading Of 1.9%
The Number Of Americans Filing For Unemployment Benefits For The Week Ending July 25 Was 197,000, The Lowest Since The Week Ending April 25, 2026
Bank Of England Deputy Governor Lombardelli: Economic Activity Is Slightly Stronger Than We Expected, But Still Weak
Market Pricing Has Lowered Its Bets On A Bank Of England Rate Hike; The Probability Of A September Rate Hike Is Now Less Than 40%

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MPC Rate Statement
Bank of England Governor Bailey held a press conference on monetary policy.
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BOJ Monetary Policy Statement















































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EU envoy confident sanctions are crippling Russia's economy, eyeing an unsustainable breaking point by 2026.
The European Union's sanctions are inflicting a "significant impact" on Russia's economy, which could reach an unsustainable breaking point by 2026, according to the EU's top sanctions envoy, David O'Sullivan. Speaking ahead of the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the veteran official expressed confidence that the unprecedented economic measures are working as intended.
O'Sullivan acknowledged that sanctions are "not a silver bullet" and will always face attempts at circumvention. However, he remains optimistic about their long-term effects on Moscow's ability to finance its war.

"I am fairly bullish," he stated, noting that the pressure is building. "Defying the laws of economic gravity can only go on for so long."
The core of O'Sullivan's argument is that Russia's pivot to a war economy is severely distorting its entire financial structure at the expense of its civil sector. This strain is manifesting in key economic indicators. Russia is currently grappling with inflation running at about 6% and interest rates set at a high of 16%.
Vladimir Putin's war machine is also facing shrinking revenues. According to Russia's own finance ministry, federal budget revenues from oil and gas—the lifeblood of the economy—were halved in January, falling to their lowest point since July 2020. This economic pressure comes as Russia intensifies its attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure during a harsh winter.
Appointed in December 2022, O'Sullivan's primary mission is to counter the evasion and circumvention of EU sanctions. The EU has launched an unprecedented 19 rounds of sanctions since 2022, targeting over 2,700 individuals and entities and restricting trade across sectors like energy, aviation, IT, and luxury goods.
A key focus has been persuading non-EU countries to prevent the re-export of European goods to Russia, particularly components that can be repurposed for military use. O'Sullivan noted some success in stemming the flow of critical products through Central Asia, the Caucasus, Turkey, Serbia, the UAE, and Malaysia. He clarified that in most cases, this circumvention is driven by "economic operators seeing economic opportunity" rather than by deliberate government policy.
The China Factor: A "No-Limits" Challenge
China, however, stands out as an exception. O'Sullivan described Beijing as "clearly sort of backfilling and providing support" to Moscow, though he stopped short of accusing it of supplying direct military equipment.
He said that when EU leaders raise this concern with their Chinese counterparts, the response is consistently dismissive. "The answer is always the same: 'Nothing to see here. We don't know what you're talking about. We don't see any problem.'"
The EU has also claimed significant success in disrupting Russia's "shadow fleet"—a collection of aging oil tankers with obscure ownership used to transport crude to markets in China and India. By December, nearly 600 of these vessels had been placed under EU sanctions.
"We've been very successful in getting flag states to remove their flags from sanctioned vessels," O'Sullivan said. "I think we have tightened the screws on that particular form of circumvention, very considerably. I think the Russians are struggling to keep the oil flowing."
Despite these efforts, the EU has faced criticism from the United States for not going far enough. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently accused the EU of "financing the war against themselves" by signing a trade deal with India without securing tougher commitments on Russian oil purchases. Since the invasion, India has become one of the top global buyers of discounted Russian crude.
O'Sullivan defended the EU's engagement with India, arguing that cooperation is more effective than isolation. He highlighted several key actions taken before the trade deal was signed:
• EU sanctions were imposed on a large Indian refinery.
• The EU banned imports of refined products made from Russian crude, including those from India.
• The Adani Group, owner of 14 Indian ports, decided to block access to sanctioned tankers.
"India is a hugely important country," O'Sullivan stated, "and I think we gain much more by engaging with it, even if we don't always agree with every Indian foreign policy position."
A critical area of focus for O'Sullivan's team is a "common high-priority list" of 300 products. These items, such as memory cards, optical readers, and circuit boards, are not classified as dual-use goods requiring export licenses but have been consistently found inside deconstructed Russian drones, missiles, and helicopters.
The fact that these components originate from Western countries—including the US, EU, Switzerland, and the UK—is "embarrassing for us all," O'Sullivan admitted. He added that awareness among EU member states about this supply chain vulnerability has grown, and while the problem has been reduced, it has not been completely eliminated.
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