Debt Auction, Growth Data To Decide Trajectory For India Bonds

Bond

Economic

Summary:

Indian government bonds are set to open flat to marginally lower on Friday, continuing from the previous session's moves as traders brace for fresh debt supply via weekly auction, which would be followed by the nation's economic growth data.

The benchmark 10-year yield (IN063335G=CC) is likely to hover between 6.50% and 6.52% till the debt auction, according to a trader at a private bank. It ended at 6.5082% on Thursday, which was its first rise in the last four sessions. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

New Delhi will sell bonds worth 320 billion rupees ($3.58 billion) later in the day, including a seven-year paper. At its previous auction on October 31, the central bank had rejected all bids for this note due to weak demand.

"The auction should go through today, as sentiment is tilted towards the bulls on hopes of a dovish monetary policy next week," the trader said.

"Still, 6.48% should act as a strong bottom for now."

India's July-September growth data is due at 4:00 p.m. IST. The economy likely grew 7.3% year-on-year during the period, according to a Reuters poll, after expanding 7.8% in April-June.

The Reserve Bank of India will likely cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% in its December 5 meeting, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, who also expect the rate to stay there through 2026.

Bond yields eased after RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that there is scope to cut policy rates further, and the latest macroeconomic data has not indicated any reduction in the room for policy easing.

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Tokyo Inflation Surprises Markets, Pressures BOJ Outlook

The focal point of Friday's Asia-Pacific trading session was Japan’s inflation data from its capital city, which serves as a reliable early signal for nationwide price movements. Tokyo's headline inflation eased slightly to 2.7% in October from 2.8% in September. However, core inflation excluding volatile fresh food prices but including energy edged up to 2.8%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 2.7% and staying firmly above the Bank of Japan’s long-standing 2% target.

The deviation from expectations reinforces the argument for a potential interest rate adjustment in the near term. The link between persistent inflation above the BOJ’s target and the central bank’s policy response is causal, as it strengthens internal pressures to unwind ultra-loose monetary policy, especially in light of rising real wages and resilient consumer spending.

Asian Markets React with Divergence Across Regions

In response to these economic signals, Asia-Pacific markets ended the session with a mixed performance. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.08%, while the broader Topix showed marginal gains. The subdued reaction suggests that while inflation data is significant, traders remain cautious until a formal policy move materializes.

South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.32%, weighed down by a sharp decline in LG Energy Solution’s stock, which dropped over 5%. The decline followed LG Chem’s announcement to reduce its stake in LG Energy Solution from around 80% to 70% to boost shareholder returns. This causative decision negatively impacted sentiment toward the battery sector, even as Kosdaq-listed Enchem surged 14% after reports of a supply deal with China’s battery giant CATL. This divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap tech stocks reveals a bifurcation in investor risk appetite.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.04%, reflecting a stable domestic environment. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.24%, and mainland China’s Shanghai Composite climbed modestly by 0.21%. Property giant China Vanke continued its prolonged slide, with its shares hitting an all-time low in Hong Kong and dropping to their weakest level since 2008 in Shenzhen. The sustained downtrend reflects not only market-specific stress but also broader concerns about structural weakness in China’s property sector.

Investors Await India’s Q2 GDP

Later in the day, attention shifted toward India’s upcoming fiscal second-quarter GDP report. Although not yet released at the time of market close, expectations remained high as investors looked for signs of sustained growth to support regional momentum. Any deviation from forecasted growth could influence both foreign investment flows and regional equity performance in the coming weeks.

U.S. stock markets remained closed for Thanksgiving, and futures were mostly flat in after-hours trading. With Nasdaq on track to end a seven-month winning streak and tech stocks under pressure due to concerns over AI profitability, Asian markets are reflecting a correlated but not causative trend of investor caution.

The subdued performance of U.S. tech stocks in November has contributed indirectly to the risk-off tone in Asia. However, the impact is more psychological than fundamental at this point, as Asian market movements are still largely driven by local economic data and sector-specific news.

This trading session underscores the mixed landscape facing Asia-Pacific markets stronger-than-expected inflation in Tokyo heightens uncertainty about Japan’s policy trajectory, while idiosyncratic corporate developments in South Korea and China create localized volatility. With Indian GDP data and the reopening of U.S. markets pending, regional investors are treading cautiously, balancing optimism over valuations with concern over global and domestic headwinds. The outlook remains tentative as global inflation trends, central bank decisions, and tech sector repricing continue to drive sentiment.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Stocks

A Historic Divergence from November Norms

November 2025 is turning out to be an unusually lackluster month for U.S. equities. As the shortened post-Thanksgiving trading session approaches, all three major indexes the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite are on track to finish the month in the red. This underperformance is especially notable given that November has historically delivered positive returns, with the S&P 500 averaging gains of 1.8% since 1950 and typically rising 1.6% in the year following a U.S. presidential election. However, this year defies tradition, reflecting deeper structural and market-specific headwinds.

As of Wednesday’s close, the Nasdaq Composite has declined 2.15% month-to-date, substantially underperforming both the S&P 500 (down 0.4%) and the Dow (down 0.29%). This disparity is largely due to a sell-off in technology stocks, which had previously driven much of the year’s equity gains. The tech sector’s November retreat indicates a potential correction phase after overextension, but may also reflect growing investor caution toward valuations and expectations of future earnings. The causal factor appears linked to rising concerns about sustainability in tech valuations rather than any singular event.

Macroeconomic Caution and Shrinking Momentum

According to a Bank of America strategist, 2026 will likely see the S&P 500 grow by only a single-digit percentage, a stark contrast to recent years' double-digit surges. This reflects waning support from factors that had previously buoyed markets including stimulus-driven liquidity and resilient corporate earnings. The forecast indicates a structural slowdown, not merely cyclical variation, and raises questions about what will drive returns in a high-interest-rate, low-stimulus environment.

The subdued performance also emerges against a backdrop of mounting global uncertainties. While U.S. markets paused for the Thanksgiving holiday, international developments continued to unfold. Notably, Alibaba launched AI smart glasses at a price well below Meta’s competing product, intensifying the competitive dynamics of the consumer AI market. Meanwhile, Apple is battling a major antitrust challenge in India, facing a potential $38 billion fine a threat that could significantly alter global regulatory discourse around digital platforms.

In geopolitics, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s signal of openness to “serious” peace discussions suggests potential de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. However, the sincerity and timing of such overtures remain in doubt, and the global security outlook continues to weigh on markets, particularly with respect to energy and defense stocks.

Thanksgiving Session: No Dramatic Reversal in Sight

With only a few hours left in the trading month and with Friday’s U.S. session shortened to a 1 p.m. close the possibility of a dramatic turnaround remains slim. Even a late-session rally might not be interpreted positively, as an outsized jump on thin volume could trigger fresh concerns about market volatility and investor conviction. In this sense, a correlation not causation is at play between technical rebounds and broader confidence levels.

The weak November performance serves as a reality check for those hoping that historical averages would persist regardless of economic or political conditions. Market behavior in 2025 highlights that structural shifts in sectors like technology, in global regulatory pressures, and in the macroeconomic environment can override even the most consistent seasonal patterns. As investors look toward 2026, a cautious, fundamentals-driven approach may be more appropriate than reliance on historical playbooks.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Justin

Political

Economic

China complained to Malaysia and Cambodia about the trade deals they signed with the US last month, underscoring the delicate balance countries must strike in the rivalry between Beijing and Washington.

Beijing has "grave concerns" with certain portions of the US-Malaysia trade deal, Chinese Ministry of Commerce officials said in a meeting with Malaysia on Tuesday. "We hope Malaysia will fully consider and properly handle this matter in light of its long-term national interests."

The readout added officials from the Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry explained and clarified the issues of China's concerns, without elaborating on what those are.

The meeting follows a similar sitdown between Chinese and Cambodian officials last Tuesday, where China's trade envoy Li Chenggang also urged Phnom Penh to handle concerns and the Cambodians clarified some issues.

China's Commerce Ministry didn't respond to a request for further details. Malaysia's trade ministry and Cambodia's government spokesperson didn't reply to a request for comment.

Both deals, signed last month during President Donald Trump's visit to Malaysia, include language that encourages the countries to align with Washington on national security issues, including export controls, investment screening and sanctions. Beijing has repeatedly warned countries against signing deals with the US that undermine its interests, but this appears to be the first instance of direct complaint.

The public criticisms demonstrate the tight space Southeast Asian nations navigate between the world's two largest economies. China is a key economic and trade partner, but Trump's tariff threats have forced countries to make more trade concessions and investment deals with the US.

The deals were part of a flurry of trade pacts unveiled last month during Trump's first Asia tour since he was reelected, including with Vietnam, and Thailand. As part of its deal, Kuala Lumpur will provide preferential access for US goods and services, while the White House exempted some Malaysian goods from Trump's 19% reciprocal tariffs.

But also under the agreement, Malaysia is expected to follow Washington's trade restrictions on countries for economic or national security reasons. It also commits Malaysia to align with US export controls and sanctions on sensitive technologies, and to prevent its companies from helping others circumvent those measures.

Malaysia should also explore a mechanism to review inbound investment for national security risks, including in relation to critical minerals and critical infrastructure.

For Cambodia, the pact affirms that the country will drop all tariffs on US food and agricultural imports, as well as industrial products. In exchange, the White House identified hundreds of goods it planned to exempt from its 19% tariff.

Similar to Malaysia, Cambodia is required to comply with the US export control regime and so-called entity list of banned firms. In addition, it will cooperate with any US request for information about investment activity by third countries.

Both Malaysia and Cambodia will also enhance defense trade with the US, and promise to crack down on transshipment of goods, the agreements show.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Cryptocurrency

Switzerland has delayed implementing rules that would automatically exchange crypto account information with overseas tax agencies until 2027 and is still deciding which countries it will share data with.

Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) rules will still be enshrined into law on Jan. 1, 2026, as originally planned, but will not be implemented until at least a year later, the Swiss Federal Council and State Secretariat for International Finance said on Wednesday.

It added that the Swiss government's tax committee "suspended deliberations on the partner states with which Switzerland intends to exchange data in accordance with the CARF," as the reason for the delay.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) approved CARF in 2022 as part of a global push to share crypto account data with partnered governments in a bid to curb tax evasion via crypto platforms.

The Swiss government's announcement also highlighted a series of amendments to local crypto tax reporting laws, and transitional provisions "aimed at making it easier" for domestic crypto firms to comply with CARF rules.

In June, the Swiss Federal Council had moved forward with a bill to adopt the CARF rules in January 2026, and said at the time that the first exchange of crypto account data would happen in 2027, but it's now unclear when it plans to exchange information.

75 nations signed up to CARF

OECD documents show 75 countries, including Switzerland, that have signed on to enact CARF over the next two to four years.

Meanwhile, it has earmarked Argentina, El Salvador, Vietnam and India as countries that have yet to sign on.

List of jurisdictions implementing CARF. Source: OECD

Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the Brazilian government was weighing up a tax on international crypto transfers as part of push to align domestic rules with CARF standards.

Meanwhile, the US White House also recently reviewed the Internal Revenue Service's proposal to join CARF as part of a push to enact more stringent capital gains tax reporting rules for American taxpayers using foreign exchanges.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Stocks

Economic

Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobrashas lowered its dividend forecast and cut expected investments by almost 2% in a new five-year business plan announced Thursday, as it grapples with lower crude prices.

Petrobras expects to dole out between $45 billion and $50 billion during the 2026-2030 period in ordinary dividends, a filing showed. In its previous five-year plan to 2029, released last year, the firm had expected to give shareholders up to $55 billion.

There was no mention of extraordinary dividends in the new plan, while the previous one estimated up to $10 billion could be disbursed during the 2025-2029 period.

The cut in investments to $109 billion comes as Petrobras faces lower Brent oil prices, that it now expects to hover around $63 a barrel for next year, below the $77 estimate it had set for 2026 in the previous plan.

This marks the first drop in investments of the state-run firm under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's current administration.

The last time investment was cut was the 2021-2025 plan, under former President Jair Bolsonaro's administration, when Petrobras was undergoing a series of divestments.

Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing sources, that Petrobras' expected investments were set to drop to around $109 billion in the new plan.

Since taking office, Lula has pushed the oil firm to invest more in order to boost the country's economy. Next year, the leftist leader is set to seek a fourth, non-consecutive term as president.

Despite lowering investments overall, Petrobras raised investments in exploration and production activities by about $1 billion to $78 billion for the period, while keeping refining, transportation and marketing investments at around $20 billion.

Petrobras also said it expects to reach peak oil production within the period of 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2028.

Peak total production within the plan's timeframe would be 3.4 million barrels of oil and gas equivalent per day (boed) in 2028 and 2029, based on annual projections with a margin of variation of plus or minus 4%.

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

A Familiar Threat Resurfaces in Crypto Markets

South Korea is once again confronting the specter of North Korean cyber aggression, this time through a high-profile hack targeting Upbit, the nation’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. The attack resulted in the unauthorized withdrawal of approximately 44.5 billion won ($30.4 million), raising immediate suspicion of the notorious Lazarus Group, widely believed to operate under the directive of Pyongyang’s intelligence apparatus.

The breach, described by Upbit as an "abnormal withdrawal," bears strong resemblance to the 2019 attack in which 58 billion won was stolen, an incident later attributed to the Lazarus Group. According to an unnamed South Korean government official quoted by Yonhap, the patterns and methods used in the recent hack reflect the same technical signature, indicating a strong likelihood of recurrence rather than coincidence.

This correlation between past and present incidents suggests a deliberate and sustained effort by Lazarus to exploit vulnerabilities in digital asset infrastructure, particularly in South Korea, where crypto adoption is widespread and digital exchanges remain lucrative targets.

Attribution and Strategic Implications

The Lazarus Group has long been identified by global intelligence and cybersecurity bodies, including the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, as one of the most sophisticated persistent cyber threats emanating from North Korea. Their tactics typically include phishing campaigns, malware deployment, and exploiting exchange weaknesses to secure illicit funds, which are believed to be used to finance state operations in defiance of international sanctions.

The suspected involvement of Lazarus is not merely a legal issue it points to a deeper strategic pattern where North Korea leverages cybercrime to bypass economic isolation. While attribution remains under investigation, the South Korean National Police Agency has confirmed a formal probe, while the National Intelligence Service declined to provide details.

Corporate Ramifications: Dunamu and Naver Deal Overshadowed

The hack’s timing is particularly sensitive as it occurred just hours before South Korea’s tech conglomerate Naver announced its acquisition of Dunamu, Upbit’s operating company. This overlap raises questions about potential due diligence lapses or whether the attackers were strategically timing the breach to exploit transitional vulnerabilities.

While Dunamu has stated it is still investigating the scale and cause of the outflow, the reputational and operational impact is likely to be significant. It also underscores a causative link between security weaknesses in fintech infrastructure and investor confidence during corporate restructuring or acquisitions.

The Upbit hack is not an isolated incident but part of an escalating cyber threat landscape where state-backed actors use cryptocurrency platforms as both targets and tools for geopolitical objectives. For South Korea, the attack is a stark reminder that cyber resilience is not just a technical necessity but a national security priority. As investigations proceed, the incident will likely shape regulatory reforms, international cooperation on cybercrime, and strategic recalibration of how digital assets are defended against hostile state actors.