Bitcoin Halving In 12 Days: Here’s What To Expect On April 20th

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The crypto market is enthusiastic, with just 12 days remaining until Bitcoin’s fourth Halving.

The crypto market is enthusiastic, with just 12 days remaining until Bitcoin’s fourth Halving. This historic event, set to occur on April 20, 2024, marks a significant milestone in Bitcoin’s journey, impacting its economy and generating excitement among investors.

However, historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s value has surged after each halving, sometimes reaching remarkable gains of up to 8,000%. An analyst in his X post opens the trail of past events where BTC has surged due to halving. Let’s Dive in.

Historical Performance

Bitcoin’s previous halvings have seen remarkable price surges, reflecting the event’s profound effect on the network’s dynamics. The first halving in November 2012 saw Bitcoin’s price jump by a staggering 9,500% within a year, from $12 to $1,166. Similarly, the second halving in July 2016 triggered a bull run that pushed Bitcoin’s price to nearly $20,000, representing a 4,100% increase. Bitcoin Halving In 12 Days: Here’s What To Expect On April 20th_1

Bitcoin Halving In 12 Days: Here’s What To Expect On April 20th_1

Even in the COVID-19 pandemic, the third Halving in May 2020 has also seen a significant price surge, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $69,000 by November 2021, marking a 700% increase from its pre-halving levels. But experts say this year it will be different.

What’s New?

Unlike previous events, Bitcoin has already surpassed its previous all-time high of $69K ahead of the fourth halving. Despite this, the upcoming event has high expectations, with analysts closely monitoring its potential impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Making things more interesting, renowned analyst PlanB predicts further price increase, with Bitcoin hitting $100,000 this year and surpassing $200,000 in the future, based on his Stock-2-Flow (S2F) model.

Expected Crypto Impact

Moreover, the fourth halving event in Bitcoin has three main effects. First, it lowers the amount of new Bitcoin made each day, making it more like gold and reducing its inflation. Second, it speeds up Bitcoin’s scarcity because there are only 21 million Bitcoins to mine, which could make people want it more and increase its price. Lastly, it encourages miners to use better equipment to mine Bitcoin, making the network more secure.

What to Expect?

Historically, the price of Bitcoin has experienced a significant increase in the months following the Halving. However, it is important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is volatile and cannot predict the future with certainty. Some experts predict that the 2024 halving could propel the price of Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Others believe the impact will be more gradual, with a sustained price increase.

Regardless of the immediate impact, the 2024 Halving is a major milestone in Bitcoin’s history. This event is all about the cryptocurrency’s short supply and deflationary nature, making it a long-term investment asset.

Source:coinpedia

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Cohen

Central Bank

Economic

Inflation slowed to even nearer the ECB's 2% target in March, paving the way for the bank to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve and other big peers in kicking off an easing cycle.

"Markets are looking for confirmation that a cut is coming in June," said Zurich Insurance Group's chief market strategist Guy Miller.

"If you don't deliver, then you risk roiling the market."

1/ IS A JUNE CUT A DONE DEAL?

Pretty much, given how many policymakers have signalled that as a likely start date for easing.

Even a hawk like Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot says he's pencilled in June, while Austria's Robert Holzmann, seen as the leading hawk, is not opposed.

Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management, said the ECB wants to see data broadly in line with its expectations to deliver a cut, rather than needing to see improvements as the Fed has suggested.

"Even if you've got some upside surprises in one indicator, I don't think it would prevent them from cutting," he said.

One potential concern remains services inflation, which has held at 4% for months, reflecting relatively quick wage growth.

2/ WHAT WILL THE ECB SAY THIS WEEK?

It will likely signal rate cuts are coming. The question is how explicit it will be about June.

If the ECB opts for caution, it could say data is moving in the right direction for a cut, or it could signal a move conditional on the data it will see before June, analysts said.

Data last week showing inflation fell unexpectedly to 2.4% in March should give the ECB confidence after it lowered its inflation projections last month.

"Almost pre-announcing the rate cut could be what happens," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski.

Investors will also look out for any hints on the pace of the cutting cycle once it starts.

3/ WHAT DOES THE ECB NEED TO SEE IN UPCOMING WAGE DATA?

Policymakers want further signs of a slowdown after negotiated wage growth eased to 4.47% in the fourth quarter from a record 4.69% the previous quarter.

The ECB has singled out wages as the most important factor determining whether it can cut rates, so first quarter data due in May is a key reason why the ECB isn't seen moving on Thursday.

"I think the first cut in June will happen even if wages show only moderate improvement," said UBS's European chief economist Reinhard Cluse.

4/ WOULD A FURTHER SCALING BACK OF U.S. RATE CUT BETS CHANGE THE ECB OUTLOOK?

Not much. The euro zone economy is much weaker than its U.S. counterpart, so the ECB should be able to move first even if the Fed doesn't cut in June, analysts say.

The bigger question is if the Fed cuts a lot less than markets expect thereafter.

Traders no longer fully price the three rate cuts Fed policymakers anticipate, some analysts question whether U.S. rates will be cut at all this year.

Were the Fed to not cut rates this year, ING's Brzeski said he would expect two, rather than three ECB rate cuts given a potential inflationary impact of a fall in the euro that would likely result from the widening gap between U.S. and euro zone interest rates.

5/ HOW WORRYING ARE RISING OIL PRICES?

Not very.

Geopolitical tensions and expectations of higher demand have pushed Brent crude prices to five-month highs over $90.

That's above the ECB's $79 a barrel forecast for 2024.

But current moves are "very small" compared to those seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and any resulting uptick in inflation should be temporary, said Berenberg economist Salomon Fiedler.

"They should not influence the ECB's policy path all that much," he added.

And natural gas prices, a key driver pushing inflation over 10% in 2022, have fallen since the start of the year.

Source: Reuters

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Ukadike Micheal

Economic

Commodity

Russia experienced a significant boost in revenue during the first quarter of the year, attributed to one-time tax payments and the uptick in oil prices amidst ongoing sanctions related to its involvement in the Ukraine conflict. The Finance Ministry reported a notable increase in revenue flow to the federal budget, reaching 8.7 trillion rubles ($94 billion), marking a 53.5% surge compared to the same period last year.

Non-energy industries saw a substantial increase in inflows, rising by 43% year-on-year, providing a stable foundation for continued revenue growth. The influx of one-time payments, including exit fees from foreign companies leaving Russia, contributed significantly to this surge. Additionally, revenue from oil and gas sectors witnessed rapid growth, nearly 80% higher than the previous year, fueled by escalating oil prices and one-time tax payments from oil companies.

The rise in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $90 a barrel, has played a pivotal role in bolstering Russia's revenue streams. However, it's essential to note that energy income experienced a decline in 2023 due to various factors, including sanctions imposed by the European Union and the Group of Seven nations, aimed at penalizing Russia for its actions in Ukraine.

While the energy sector's performance was expected, the strong dynamics observed in non-oil-and-gas sectors surpassed expectations, indicating a diverse and resilient economy. However, Russia continues to grapple with a budget deficit since the end of 2022, primarily due to the financial burdens associated with the Ukraine conflict.

Despite the increase in revenue, government spending surged by 20% compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, the budget deficit at the end of the first quarter of 2024 was significantly reduced, standing at 607 billion rubles, marking a notable improvement compared to the same period in 2023.

From a technical standpoint, the surge in revenue reflects the resilience of Russia's economy amidst geopolitical tensions and sanctions. The reliance on oil and gas revenue underscores the importance of diversifying income sources to mitigate risks associated with commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties.

While Russia's revenue surge in the first quarter is encouraging, challenges remain, particularly concerning the budget deficit and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Diversification efforts and prudent fiscal management will be crucial in navigating these challenges and ensuring sustainable economic growth.

Source: Bloomberg

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Glendon

Economic

On September 14, ARM Holdings, a trailblazer in the semiconductor industry, made a significant stride in its corporate journey by listing on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. The British chip designer, known for its pervasive impact across various technology sectors, launched its IPO with shares priced at $51, hitting the top end of its targeted range and valuing the company at $54.5 billion.

A Glimpse into ARM's IPO Dynamics

ARM's initial public offering was one of the most notable in recent years, with the company offering 95.5 million American depository shares. This move was set to raise approximately $4.87 billion for its current owner, SoftBank, which sold less than 10% of its stake. Notably, ARM itself did not raise any proceeds from this offering. Despite some fluctuations on the opening day, with shares peaking at $57 and closing at $55.50, the IPO has drawn significant attention from investors and industry observers alike.

The decision to list on the Nasdaq was a slight disappointment to UK officials who had hoped for a London Stock Exchange listing to bolster London's appeal as a hub for major IPOs. ARM's roots were deeply tied to London, being dual-listed there and in New York until its acquisition by SoftBank in 2016.

SoftBank's Strategic Moves with ARM

The journey to the IPO was not straightforward. In 2020, SoftBank intended to sell ARM to NVIDIA for $80 billion, but the deal collapsed in 2022 due to regulatory hurdles citing competition concerns. This led to the decision to take ARM public, which, although less lucrative than the NVIDIA deal would have been, still positions ARM impressively in the market. In a strategic move, ARM is in discussions to bring NVIDIA, along with other tech giants like Apple and Amazon, as anchor investors for the IPO.

ARM's Role in the Tech Ecosystem

ARM is renowned for designing processors and other chips while licensing these designs to production firms, rather than manufacturing the processors themselves. The company’s influence is vast, with its technologies found in approximately 95% of the world’s smartphones and a significant portion of chips designed in China. ARM’s designs are integral to a multitude of devices, including smart TVs, electric vehicles, and various IoT devices, underscoring its claim as the R&D backbone of the semiconductor industry.

ARM’s Financial and Market Standing

The IPO pricing reflects a valuation adjustment from an earlier estimate of $64 billion in internal transactions, placing ARM's worth at the higher end of the expected $30 billion to $70 billion range. This valuation underscores ARM's status as the most valuable company to list on US markets since late 2021. ARM makes its revenue primarily through royalties collected from chips manufactured using its designs, a model that has proven highly lucrative given the pervasive use of its technology.

Looking Ahead: ARM’s Market Prospects and Challenges

ARM's future looks promising with plans to expand into new growth areas like automotive and cloud computing. However, it faces challenges, including market saturation in the smartphone sector and geopolitical tensions affecting its operations in China. The company is also navigating the impending end of its IPO lockup period, which could affect its stock’s stability.

Conclusion

ARM's IPO not only marks a significant milestone for the company but also for the global semiconductor industry. With a robust business model, strategic investor interest, and a broadening technology horizon, ARM is well-positioned to continue its dominance in the chip design market. As ARM navigates its new public status and explores further technological frontiers, the industry watches keenly, anticipating its next moves in an ever-evolving technological landscape.

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Thomas

Energy

Economic

The Arab world’s most populous nation is in the fragile early stages of an economic turnaround after massive funding pledges handed the country’s leadership prospects of a fresh start. President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi’s next challenge is to tackle the power blackouts that gripped Egypt last year and caused widespread public discontent.

Once an exporter, Egypt is no longer producing enough gas to keep electricity systems afloat during increasingly hot summers. Last year was the hottest on record, necessitating rolling blackouts lasting up to two hours and forcing Egypt to halt liquefied natural gas exports during the season. Experts predict 2024 will be even worse.

Bloomberg News reported last week that the country has started buying LNG cargoes — which it uses to produce electricity for air conditioning — unusually early in the year to avoid chronic interruptions. Another summer of massive rolling outages would pile pressure on a population that is already grappling with high inflation, a substantially devalued currency and a hike in domestic fuel prices.

The flip side is that heavy purchases threaten to sap foreign currency reserves just as Egypt faces strains from the war in Gaza and dried up revenues from Suez Canal crossings, a result from attacks on Red Sea shipping by Houthi militants.

“Becoming a gas importer adds to Egypt’s costs,” said Ziad Daoud, chief emerging-markets economist for Bloomberg Economics. “Besides securing energy, authorities need to provide dollars to clear an import backlog, settle arrears with international companies, and ease capital restrictions.”

The LNG purchases mark a major shift for the country, which largely stopped importing the fuel in 2018 after the discovery of the massive Zohr gas field boosted domestic production and turned the country into an exporter.

Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co. is currently aiming to import at least one shipment a month through July or August, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss private details. Egypt will need at least five cargoes for the summer, one of the people said.

As recently as 2022, at the height of Europe’s energy crisis, Egypt sold record quantities on international markets, providing a welcome source of revenue at a time when it was struggling with soaring food costs. It was one of the suppliers that helped Europe keep the lights on after Russia throttled pipeline flows, bolstering ambitions that it might transform into a key energy hub.

Surging Energy Needs

Local gas output, however, has dropped to the lowest level in years recently, which Oil Minister Tarek El-Molla has linked to a natural decline at its fields. Domestic production in Egypt and pipeline imports from Israel will be insufficient to cover the country’s gas needs this summer, according to Jacopo Casadei, an analyst at consulting firm Energy Aspects Ltd. in London.

Temperatures in Cairo are already forecast to be above seasonal norms later this month. On top of fulfilling stronger demand for cooling, gas is needed to feed energy-intensive industries such as fertilizer producers. For now, at least, global gas prices have eased significantly — making it easier for price-sensitive customers in emerging markets to secure cargoes.

“In the short term, Egypt will struggle to achieve its vision of becoming an energy hub. It clearly lacks sufficient domestic production to meet internal demand and export commitments,” said Riccardo Fabiani, project director for North Africa at the Brussels-based Crisis Group. “In the long run, Egypt will need to increase its exploration efforts to boost production and bet on renewable energy.” Neither task is easy, he added.

One factor that may limit how much LNG Egypt has to purchase is the steady flows it has been receiving via pipeline from Israel. Jonathan Stern, a distinguished research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, says other discoveries that have yet to come online might see Egypt swing “between being an LNG exporter and importer” in coming years.

The country is in a better position now that it has received external financing, spearheaded by a $35 billion investment pledge by the United Arab Emirates, according to Omar Monieb, a senior analyst for Middle East & North Africa at Eurasia Group. That will allow authorities to avoid the massive blackouts of the previous summer, while implementing shorter strategic power cuts.

“They are working on different fronts, working on the technical side too to gradually solve the issue of gas shortages,” he said. “They don’t want public discontent over this issue. The socioeconomic situation is already tense. The summer is starting and it will get hotter and hotter.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Ukadike Micheal

Commodity

Economic

Frenzied trading activity has engulfed an exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on gold companies in China, reflecting investor enthusiasm for assets perceived as resilient amid the country's economic challenges. Trading for the ChinaAMC CSI SH-SZ-HK Gold Industry Equity ETF was temporarily halted to safeguard investor interests, marking the second suspension in less than a week.

The decision to halt trading came as the ETF's premium over its underlying assets surged to over 30%, reaching a record high by April 3. However, the price of the ETF experienced significant volatility, with a gain of over 40% in the preceding four sessions followed by a 10% decline upon trading resumption. China's Recent Investment Craze Sparks Volatility in Gold ETF Trading_1

China's Recent Investment Craze Sparks Volatility in Gold ETF Trading_1

This surge in ETF trading reflects a broader trend of Chinese investors seeking refuge in areas of the market perceived as strong, amidst concerns about property market instability, stock market volatility, and declining deposit rates. The allure of gold-related products, which have witnessed a remarkable rally in recent weeks, underscores investors' desire to diversify their holdings and seek shelter from economic uncertainties.

The surge in gold demand is not limited to ETFs alone; Chinese investors have long favored gold as a safe-haven asset. This sentiment has been fueled by expectations of US interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, with China's central bank consistently adding gold to its reserves over the past seventeen months.

Additionally, Chinese gold mining stocks have seen remarkable gains, with companies like Zijin Mining Group Co. and Shandong Gold Mining Co. rising by more than 50% from their lows earlier this year. However, technical indicators suggest these stocks may be entering overbought territory, raising concerns about potential corrections.

The rush into gold ETFs bears resemblance to previous investment frenzies in Chinese markets, such as the surge in overseas stock purchases via onshore fund products earlier this year. These episodes highlight the potential for excessive speculation and market volatility, prompting regulatory interventions to safeguard investor interests.

In response to the heightened trading activity, China Asset Management has taken steps to enhance liquidity for the gold ETF by adding China Galaxy Securities Co. as a liquidity provider. These measures aim to ensure orderly trading and mitigate risks associated with sudden price fluctuations.

Overall, the surge in trading activity surrounding the gold ETF underscores investors' quest for safe-haven assets amidst economic uncertainties. While gold may offer temporary respite, investors must remain vigilant against excessive speculation and potential market distortions. As regulatory scrutiny intensifies, market participants must tread cautiously to navigate the evolving landscape of Chinese investment markets.

Source: Bloomberg

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FastBull Events

A Night to Remember - FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Singapore Concludes Successfully_1

Following the great success of the Dubai Ceremony in January, FastBull set off once again to continue the glory of the Trading Influencers Awards. In March 2024, the FastBull Ceremony has come to the Garden City, Singapore. In the evening of March 30, the global financial elites gathered at the Holiday Inn Orchard City Centre to attend the second Trading Influencers Awards Ceremony of 2024.

Selected by the online / offline voting, the winning industry elites gathered together in Singapore, where they were warmly welcomed, and FastBull presented the trophies and certificates symbolizing honor and achievement to the winners in a solemn and enthusiastic manner. This scene was witnessed by many guests and industry colleagues. The outstanding performance and contribution of these industry giants were fully showcased in this event.

A Night to Remember - FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Singapore Concludes Successfully_2

Starting at 6:30 pm, the industry elites dressed up and arrived as scheduled.

A Night to Remember - FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Singapore Concludes Successfully_3

A Night to Remember - FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Singapore Concludes Successfully_4

As the night progressed, the much-anticipated Award Ceremony arrived as scheduled. Each winner received a custom certificate and trophy, which carried the industry's high respect for their persistent efforts and dedication, as well as the high appreciation and recognition for their excellent contributions to the future development of online trading. This session pushed the ceremony to a new climax, and the shining moments of each winner were engraved in this special night.

A Night to Remember - FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Singapore Concludes Successfully_5

As we approached to the end of the ceremony, all guests came up to the stage with all winners and winning brokers, and gave their biggest smile for this night to remember.

A Night to Remember - FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Singapore Concludes Successfully_6

Surrounded by the delicacies prepared by the hotel, the participants immersed themselves in lively conversations and exchanges. During the networking time, many not only took the opportunity to expand their network of contacts, but also successfully built new bridges of relationships, and further deepened existing partnerships, laying a solid foundation for future win-win cooperation.

The next FastBull Trading Influencers Awards will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, where we will share the trading stories there. See you!

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