Analysts' Ideas for U.S. Soy Plantings Set Stage for Surprise

Commodity

Summary:

Trade estimates for U.S. corn and soybean plantings ahead of Friday's notoriously hard-to-predict acreage report may indicate stronger chances for the soy number to surprise versus the corn one.

However, the trade's recent track record with March corn acres suggests the possibility of a big miss on corn should stay on the table.

On average, analysts peg 2023 U.S. corn plantings at 90.88 million acres and soybeans at 88.24 million acres, up 2.6% and 0.9%, respectively, from last year.

Traders will be comparing these numbers with the ones published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's statistics service on Friday, which will represent the first survey-based estimates of 2023 spring crop plantings in the United States.

The 2.3 million-acre range of estimates on soybean acres offers an immediate red flag as it is the narrowest ahead of the March planting report since at least 2007, increasing the odds for an unexpected number. The five-year average range is 4.5 million acres, including 6.2 million last year and 5.5 million in 2021.

Analysts have not given themselves room to the downside on soybeans. Of the 26 estimates collected by Reuters, only one predicted lower soybean acres than last year's 87.45 million, and that one estimate was only marginally lower.

March soybean acres have not landed outside the range of estimates since 2018. But USDA's March corn intentions have landed outside in six of the last seven years, skipping only 2018, which is why a corn surprise is still in play for Friday.

Fortunately, analysts have created a bigger buffer than normal with a corn estimate range of 4.4 million acres, the largest since 2009. That compares with an average of 3.05 million over the last seven years, including a high of 3.9 million in 2020.

It is important to note that the trade range statistics – highest for corn in 14 years and lowest for soybeans in more than 16 years – are true in both absolute and percentage terms.

Analysts are confident on the upside to corn plantings versus 2022, as just one of 26 analysts predicted lower corn acres than last year's 88.6 million, and that same analyst is the only sub-90 million guess.

If the trade misses corn and/or soybean acres on Friday, it is a toss-up as to which miss could be larger. On average over the last five years, analysts' March corn and soy acreages have each deviated by 2.2% from the end-of-March USDA figures. Analysts' Ideas for U.S. Soy Plantings Set Stage for Surprise_1

Analysts' Ideas for U.S. Soy Plantings Set Stage for Surprise_1

In Combo

When evaluating feasibility of the trade's U.S. acreage estimates, the assumed combination of corn and soy, the United States' two largest crops, must be considered.

The average corn and soy trade guesses combine to 179.1 million acres, up from 176.03 million last year, when excessive springtime moisture in the northwestern Corn Belt prevented farmers from planting full intentions.

That would be the third-largest corn-plus-soy area on record after 2017 and 2021, when combined acres each surpassed 180 million. Analysts have overestimated corn-plus-soy acres in recent Marches, but 179.1 million is their smallest in four years.

USDA's Outlook Forum last month tentatively pegged 2023 U.S. corn and soy acres at 91 million and 87.5 million, respectively, combining for 178.5 million. Analysts' recent estimates have allocated fewer acres to wheat in 2023 at 48.85 million versus USDA at 49.5 million, allowing more room for corn-plus-soy.

USDA's wheat area would be a seven-year high and up more than 8% from last year, the biggest year-on-year rise in wheat plantings since 1996. Seventeen of 24 estimates collected by Reuters call for wheat acres below 49.5 million, and all reflect a rise versus last year.

Nine of 23 analysts predict spring wheat plantings below last year's 10.84 million acres, and eight of 23 see lighter durum acres this year versus last.

Source: Market Screener

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Samantha Luan

Bond

2Y Treasuries stuck around 4% until data catches up to the economic gloom

Sanity seems to prevail, at least so far this week, with no new contagion fears weighing on sentiment. Realised volatility in rates remains elevated, with double-digit moves in basis point terms on the 2Y-10Y segment of main developed market curves on Monday. This is also reflected in still high implied swaption volatility, celebrating lower banking worries but dreading a return of inflation angst. Our base case is indeed for further improvement in sentiment as no new news hits the system, and as contagion fears ebbs. This is not to say we're expecting a return to the pre-Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) state of play, however.

This is clearest in the US where the negative impact on credit, a good chunk of which is provided by regional banks, is increasingly certain. Commercial real estate has emerged as a key area of concern as it accounts for a disproportionate amount of lending in this sector. All this is to say that our already cautious outlook on the US economy has been reinforced by recent events. We're looking for one last hike in this cycle, and expect the Fed will be in a position to cut rates by year-end.

In this light, the drop in US market rates makes sense. Even after yesterday's sell-off, 2Y Treasury yields ($42bn of which will be auctioned today) hover around 4%. This level has proved a magnet since the breakout of the SVB crisis and a decisive break below would require the curve to price more than the three 25bp cuts we're forecasting for this year, and which the curve is currently pricing. This is far from impossible, but this would require data to catch up to the economic gloom in markets, or further bank contagion. The path of least resistance seems to be higher yields for now, but setting up for a more meaningful drop when rate cuts come into view.

Tightening is making its way through the eurozone economy

Even if we're right in expecting a gradual improvement in sentiment, it is likely euro rates will also continue dancing to the tune of banking news. The tone of ECB communication has remained hawkish in the face of stubbornly high core inflation (and also expected to accelerate in Friday's March report) and resilient sentiment indicators. For instance, Isabel Schnabel and Luis De Guindos both highlighted the importance of underlying price pressure over the weekend. There are signs that the tightening already announced is making its way through the financial system, however.

Contagion fears from the US appear contained so far but, even prior to the SVB failure, February data showed bank lending to households and firms dampened by monetary tightening. This has failed to show up in inflation data so far, and European wage dynamics may yet take some time to reflect this. This means the scope of cyclical re-steepening, led by the 2s5s segment, and resulting in a cheapening of the 2s5s10s butterfly, is more limited for European yield curves, at least for now, and compared to their US peer. The 10Y Bund appears unable to drop below the 2% line, and indeed, we feel more comfortable with 2.5% as a level for this year. This is the equivalent of above 3% for 10Y swap rates.

Today's events and market view

Bond supply today takes the form of the Netherlands auctioning 30Y debt, Italy selling 2Y nominal and 10Y inflation-linked debt, and Germany selling 3Y bonds. The European Union has mandated banks for a syndicated tap of its 2048 green bond. The US Treasury will conclude with a 5Y T-note auction.

French and Italian confidence/sentiment indicators are the main economic releases in the morning, followed in the afternoon by US trade, house prices, consumer confidence, and Richmond and Dallas Fed indices.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey is due to testify on the Silicon Valley Bank failure.

Source: ING

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Devin

Prices in UK stores have soared to another record high in a sign that the cost-of-living crisis is far from over.

The inflationary crunch has prompted shoppers to buy fewer items, according to one of the country's best-known online grocers. Ocado Group plc said on Tuesday morning that average basket sizes at its tie-up with Marks & Spencer Group plc fell by 7.5% to 45 items in the first quarter.

Market data shows that British shoppers are increasingly turning to discount grocers. Lidl was the fastest-growing supermarket during the four weeks to March 19, Kantar said on Tuesday, with sales rising by 25.8%.

Meanwhile, Aldi's market share reached another all-time high. The two German discounters have a combined market share of 17.3%.

Sticky inflation

Grocery price inflation reached 17.5%, a fresh record, according to the data compiled by Kantar.

It followed separate figures overnight from the British Retail Consortium, which showed food prices rising 15% in March after fruit and vegetables fell into short supply.

Overall, the BRC said shop price inflation accelerated to 8.9%, a fresh peak for an index that started in 2005, and an increase from 8.4% in February.

"Food price inflation is high, feels quite sticky, and as such can be expected to take some months to notably ease off, given the time lag of cost recovery," Shore Capital analyst Clive Black wrote in a note to clients.

The data comes as broader UK inflation rose unexpectedly in February for the first time in four months, led by food and drink prices.

"Shop price inflation has yet to peak," said Helen Dickinson, chief executive officer at the BRC. "Food price rises will likely ease in the coming months, particularly as we enter the UK growing season, but wider inflation is expected to remain high."

Prices rose particularly sharply in March for chocolate, sweets and fizzy drinks due to the rising cost of sugar. Fruit and vegetables also became more expensive after weak supplies of tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers from Spain and north Africa led to gaps on shelves. Imports grew pricey due to the weakening pound.

Energy bills remain elevated despite government support, putting extra pressure on consumers. UK shoppers are already expecting their personal finances to deteriorate over the next year under the weight of rising prices.

The Bank of England raised rates last week, predicting the UK economy will avoid a recession for now. It said last month that inflation should fall below 4% by the end of the year, but many Britons remain worried. A survey by Deltapoll conducted in the last week showed that, on average, people expect inflation of 9.4% a year from now.

Chocolate eggs

Customers are already shopping "little and more often" for their groceries as they shrink their basket sizes to cope with constrained budgets, said Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, which produces the data for the BRC. Some retailers are offering discounts and promotions to encourage people to spend at Easter, he said.

Chocolate egg sales volume is already up 6% compared to a year earlier, according to Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar. Hot cross bun sales are up by 5%.

Source: Bloomberg

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Alex

Political

The Biden administration plans to send Mexico an "act now or else" message in coming weeks in an attempt to break a stalemate in an energy trade dispute as bipartisan calls grow for the U.S. to get tougher with its southern neighbor, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The move would represent a significant escalation in already-strained tensions between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Mexican counterpart, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Obrador's decision to roll back reforms aimed at opening Mexico's power and oil markets to outside competitors sparked the trade dispute.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is expected to make what was described as a "final offer" to Mexico negotiators to open its markets and agree to some increased oversight, three people familiar with the talks told Reuters. If not, the U.S. will request an independent dispute settlement panel under the Unites States Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA, they said.

The United States and Canada demanded dispute settlement talks with Mexico in July, 250 days ago. Under USMCA rules, after 75 days without a resolution they were free to request a dispute settlement panel, a third party that rules on the case.

At an event on Monday, Mexico's Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro said the United States has been entitled to call for a panel since Oct. 3.

If the panel rules against Mexico and it fails to take corrective action, Washington and Ottawa could ultimately impose billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs on Mexican goods.

The White House has hoped to avoid escalating trade tensions with Mexico as it sought help on immigration and drug trafficking. But months of talks have yielded little progress and the administration has run out of less-combative options, the sources told Reuters.

Raising the stakes in the dispute carries significant risk for Biden, who is expected to launch a re-election bid in coming weeks and will face Republican criticism over his handling of immigration and drug trafficking. Biden needs Mexican help to control the border after COVID-era restrictions are lifted on May 11.

A U.S. official acknowledged growing frustration with the lack of progress in the discussions. "We want to see clear progress on this issue and address the concerns that have been raised by our negotiating teams," said the official, who declined to be named because the discussions were private.

A USTR spokesperson declined comment on the energy consultations with Mexico, but Trade Representative Katherine Tai hinted at possible escalation during a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Thursday when questioned about the talks.

"We are engaging with Mexico on specific and concrete steps that Mexico must take to address the concerns set out in our consultations request. This is still very much a live issue," Tai said.

She later added: "We know that all the tools in the USMCA are there for a reason."

U.S. oil companies, such as Chevron and Marathon Petroleum, along with solar and wind power companies, have struggled to get permits to operate in Mexico in recent years.

Mexico's Buenrostro said the challenges of transitioning to renewable energy and getting those projects connected to the power grid were at the bottom of the issue.

"It is not that they are being given discriminatory treatment, it is that we have difficulties of a technical nature," Buenrostro said, adding investments in power distribution were being made to address the issues.

The potential move by the Biden administration comes just weeks after USTR escalated another trade dispute with Mexico over its plans to ban genetically modified corn for human consumption, requesting formal consultations. The energy dispute is a step ahead under the USMCA's enforcement mechanism.

The Biden administration alleges Obrador is favoring state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and national power utility Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE), and discriminating against U.S. companies.

"I think you're going to increasingly see folks looking for ... the next step of establishing a panel relatively soon," a congressional aide said, noting patience on Capitol Hill over the talks was wearing thin.

Ron Wyden, a Democrat senator from Oregon and chair of the Senate Finance Committee, told Tai on Thursday that Mexico was "flouting" its USMCA obligations by shutting out U.S. renewable energy firms.

"Eight months have passed. American clean energy producers are still waiting for access. In my view, it's long past time to say enough is enough and escalate this into a real dispute settlement case," Wyden said.

U.S. imports from Mexico totaled $455 billion in 2022 against exports of over $324 billion, for a record U.S. trade deficit of $130.5 billion, according to government data.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Forex

USD: Fed rate expectations keep bouncing around

Risk sentiment recovered yesterday as markets appeared calmer about the health of European lenders which had generated a sell-off on Friday. The narrative that banking turmoil was shifting back from the US to Europe was the key driver of a dollar rebound at the end of last week, and we are not surprised to see investors' tentative optimism at the start of this week coincide with USD weakness.

The key reason is that, when stripping out the risks of financial contagion in Europe, monetary policy still seems to be heading in two different directions in Europe and the US. We'll expand on ECB and Bank of England comments in the EUR and GBP sections below, but we can definitely see how European central bankers are more comfortable than their US counterparts when pushing ahead with a hawkish narrative. A case in point: Neel Kashkari – one of the FOMC's biggest hawks – warned about the economic impact of a credit crunch and implicitly suggested less need for tightening.

Since the Fed is not offering a hawkish narrative to lean on, market pricing of future rate moves remains strictly tied to news on financial stability. Consequently, Fed rate expectations have become an accurate measure of market sentiment about the banking turmoil. Since the end of last week, markets have priced out a rate cut in July (pushed it to September), and now expect 60bp of easing by year-end as opposed to almost 90bp. That is probably due to the beneficial effect of First Citizens acquiring Silicon Valley Bank over the weekend.

Today, the US data calendar includes the Conference Board consumer confidence figures for March, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index (also for March) and February's wholesale inventories. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will testify before the Senate Banking Committee.

In FX, we think that as long as fears of banking contagion remain relatively quiet in Europe, the balance of risks for the dollar should remain tilted to the downside. We could see markets once again favour JPY for tactical defensive positions.

EUR: Schnabel keeps hawkish tone going

Isabel Schnabel reinforced her profile as one of the most hawkish members of the ECB governing council yesterday, as she said she wanted the ECB March statement to include a reference that more hiking was possible. Her comments likely helped push market rate expectations in the eurozone a little further: 46bp of tightening is now priced in by September.

Today, we'll hear from other ECB members. President Christine Lagarde will speak at a BIS event this afternoon, where Joachim Nagel and Francois Villeroy will also participate. We'll also hear from Madis Muller, Bostjan Vasle, Gabriel Makhlouf and Pablo Hernandez De Cos. On the data side, the German Ifo index came on the strong side yesterday (at 93.3 from 91.1 in February), but the calendar does not include market-moving releases today.

We think EUR/USD can retain some bullish momentum on the back of the ECB's hawkish narrative and calmer investor nerves on the European banking situation. Our view remains that 1.10 can be reached quite soon, although bumps along the way are highly likely.

GBP: Bailey helping the pound

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey sounded relatively hawkish in his remarks yesterday. While saying that rates should not be taken to the 2008 peak, he stressed how the UK banking system is in a sound position and that inflation remains the key focus, and that further rate hikes are possible if inflationary pressures persist. Bailey will testify today about the SVB collapse and we may hear some details about the Bank's macroprudential measures.

With BoE rate expectations now supported, we think GBP/USD can head towards the key 1.2426 (December high) and 1.2500 resistances on the back of USD weakness and policy divergence relatively soon.

HUF: NBH to confirm hawkish tone

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is meeting today for the first time since the start of the recent turbulence in global financial markets. We expect rates to remain unchanged, in line with market surveys, and a hawkish tone. Although we have already seen the peak in inflation and an improvement in the current account deficit, the forint's return to the 400 EUR/HUF level again will not allow the NBH any hints of dovish signals, in our view. The meeting will also bring an updated central bank forecast, however, we are unlikely to see any game-changer today.

On the FX side, the Hungarian forint has maintained the highest beta against the global story, which, assuming favourable global conditions, creates room for a significant recovery. We believe the recent sell-off has cleared the very heavy long positioning that previously blocked further forint appreciation. The renewed rally is also supported by the energy story with the gas price testing new lows. Moreover, with the forint having by far the highest carry within the Central and Eastern Europe region, it will once again attract investors to the HUF market. Thus, in our view, today's hawkish meeting should support the new gains and push the forint below 385 EUR/HUF.

Source: ING

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Kevin Du

Cryptocurrency

What can you do with a volatile and speculative asset class that has no proven end-use but refuses to do the polite thing and die?

Buy it, maybe?

Even Bitcoin's biggest sceptics may be throwing up their hands in surrender as the crypto bellwether soaks up everything the last turbulent year could throw at it, and starts climbing once again.

Those who thought — or hoped — it would be wiped out by a turbulent 2022 look set to be disappointed, again.

If a peak-to-trough crash from $68,000 to $16,000 can't kill it off, then what can, exactly?

Incredibly, Bitcoin is now 2023's best-performing asset class, up 67.59 per cent year-to-date and trading at a nine-month high of around $28,000 at the time of writing.

It might be time to admit defeat and accept that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and the rest are here to stay, like it or not.

Bitcoin is still dirty, polluting, volatile and not much use, unless you're a scammer, gangster or trafficker.

It is also a money destruction machine for naive traders who reckon they can get rich overnight, only to waste their lives glued to an app that destroys their wealth before their delusions.

Last year destroyed the claim that Bitcoin was digital gold, a safe haven in times of economic trouble.

It sold off last year along with tech stocks, bonds, real estate, emerging markets and other key asset classes. The end of the cheap money era, as inflation and interest rates rocketed, was always going to hurt more speculative assets like this one.

It couldn't kill it, though.

As they say, hope springs eternal and Bitcoin is swinging back into favour as investors look forward to the US Federal Reserve's "pivot", when it signals that the war on inflation is won and it will start cutting interest rates rather than hiking them.

Trading platform eToro has just seen a 78 per cent jump in newly opened Bitcoin positions over the past month, as investors wake up to the opportunity, says the site's crypto analyst Simon Peters.

"Although inflation remains sticky, the headline numbers are coming down. As a result, we're seeing the opposite of what we saw in 2022 and the pressure is easing off crypto."

Now, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and the takeover of Credit Suisse in Switzerland have given it another lift.

Crypto was a child of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, appearing shortly after the world's central bankers started to debase fiat currencies by printing trillions of virtual money through quantitative easing.

But it could come of age in the latest banking meltdown, as traders calculate the Fed and others will be forced to cut interest rates and deliver more QE to prevent systemic meltdown.

Loose monetary policy is good for crypto, says Vijay Valecha, chief market analyst at Century Financial.

"When the Fed tightens, Bitcoin tends to fall. If it eases, then crypto could rise."

Gabriella Kusz, chief executive of the Global Digital Asset and Cryptocurrency Association, says investors are moving towards Bitcoin and other forms of crypto "as a reflection of their potential value as a hedge and alternative store of value during such times".

Lower interest rates will boost all zero-yielding assets, including Bitcoin, gold, silver and US stocks, as investors will get a poorer return on cash and bonds, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.

The gold price is menacing $2,000 an ounce again after jumping almost 10 per cent in a month, while silver and tech stocks are also up.

Mr Razaqzada says Bitcoin has faced resistance around the $28,000 mark but the Fed's "dovish rate hike" of just 0.25 per cent at last week's meeting helped push it over the threshold.

"Investors are starting to price in interest rate cuts for later this year or early 2024," Mr Razaqzada says.

Falling interest rate expectations have also hit the US dollar, giving Bitcoin a further boost because it is priced in dollars, and this makes it cheaper for buyers in other currencies.

Crypto investors are renowned for their short memories and many will have forgotten that as recently as February, this sector was in crisis.

It has suffered a string of crashes over the past year, starting with the supposedly stablecoin Luna in May, which was swiftly followed by Singapore-based crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital in June, platforms Celsius Network and Voyager in July, and Bitfront and BlockFi in November.

Losses topped $2 trillion and some thought Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX scandal might be the final nail in the crypto coffin, but it has risen from the dead yet again.

Calls for effective regulation are growing louder, particularly in Europe and the UK, says Nils Bulling, head of strategic innovation at digital bank Avaloq.

Some fear regulation will sink crypto, but he reckons it will boost the sector rather than sink it.

"Investors still seem interested in crypto assets and currencies. This should be even more true if the investment partners are trustworthy and subject to meaningful regulation," Mr Bulling says.

Bitcoin is what it has always been, a high-risk play on volatility. Yet the longer it survives, the harder it is to ignore.

In fact, its lack of correlation with other asset classes — or anything, really — may ultimately turn out to be its strength.

Despite its failings, there is a growing argument for having some exposure in a balanced portfolio.

If tempted, the old rules apply, so diversify by investing the majority of your invested wealth in traditional asset classes, such as shares, bonds, gold, property, commodities and cash.

Resist short-term profit grabbing, overtrading, impulse buying (and selling), extreme hype, crazy forecasters and ever-present crypto scammers. Never borrow money to buy it and never, ever invest what you cannot afford to lose.

If you can do all that, you might find an acceptable role for Bitcoin, even if you don't understand or like it.

Source: The National News

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Devin

Forex

Forex markets are currently navigating a landscape of uncertainty, as mixed currency performance contributes to a lack of clear direction. Dollar has experienced a decline in Asian session, but still hovers within familiar boundaries against other major currencies. Meanwhile, Euro has managed to strengthen against the greenback but appears less robust in other pairs.

Yen, on the other hand, has emerged as a strong contender for the day, recouping some of its yesterday's pullback. In addition, Sterling has found firmer footing after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee can concentrate on inflation while the Financial Policy Committee maintains financial stability. Interestingly, Australian Dollar has managed to hold its ground despite disappointing retail sales data.

Looking ahead, the market may experience subdued trading due to a relatively light economic calendar. However, the upcoming release of US consumer confidence data could introduce an element of volatility, as traders and investors alike look for potential opportunities in the midst of uncertainty.

Technically, GBP/USD could now be eyeing 1.2342 temporary top with this week's rebound. Break there will resume the near term rally to 1.2445/6 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.2759 fibonacci level. Let's see if the Pound has enough buying to back the breakout. Forex Markets Grapple with Uncertainty and Ambiguity, Sterling Ready for Breakout?_1

Forex Markets Grapple with Uncertainty and Ambiguity, Sterling Ready for Breakout?_1

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.15%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.37%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.18%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.73%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0220 at 0.317. Overnight DOW rose 0.60%. S&P 500 rose 0.16%. NASDAQ dropped -0.47%. 10-year yield rose 0.148 to 3.528.

Fed Jefferson on balancing inflation and economic stability

Fed Philip Jefferson stated yesterday that the current inflation rate is too high, emphasizing the FOMC's goal to reduce it to 2% as quickly as possible. Speaking at Washington and Lee University in Lexington, Virginia, he acknowledged that the process may take some time due to persistent inflation components such as services excluding housing.

Jefferson said, "I would like to say that inflation will return to 2% soon, but we have to do it in a way that does not damage the economy any more than is necessary. That's what we are trying to do." Fed is grappling with the challenge of ensuring price stability amid high inflation while also maintaining financial stability in the wake of the second-largest bank failure in US history.

In his speech, Jefferson also noted that although inflation has begun to decline, it remains unclear whether this decrease is due to higher interest rates, easing pandemic-induced supply strains, or falling energy prices.

He highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the full impact of the Fed's tightening measures, saying, "Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with long, variable, and highly uncertain lags, and we are still learning about the full effect of our tightening thus far."

Australia retail sales turnover up 0.2% mom in Feb, appeared to have levelled out

Australia retail sales turnover rose 0.2% mom to AUD 35.14B in February, matched expectations. Through the year, retail sales rose 6.4% yoy.

Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said retail sales rose modestly in February and appear to have levelled out after a period of increased volatility over November, December and January.

"On average, retail spending has been flat through the end of 2022 and to begin the new year."

Retail turnover rose modestly across most of the states and territories, with rises at 1.0% or less. Queensland recorded the only fall in turnover, down -0.4%.