Analysis-Inflation Data To Draw Scrutiny After BLS Firing, $2.1-trillion TIPS Market At Risk

Economic

Summary:

Monthly U.S. inflation data is under increased scrutiny after President Donald Trump removed the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a move that could undermine confidence in the $2.1-trillion market for Treasury debt designed to protect against inflation.

The Consumer Price Index, which will be released on Tuesday, will test investors' trust in the integrity of U.S. economic data after Trump fired the BLS head this month, accusing her of manipulating jobs numbers.

It is unclear who will replace former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. Still, any signs that lead investors to suspect data is being politicized could exacerbate concerns about CPI data collection.

In that case, investors are likely to demand higher compensation to hold TIPS, or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, whose value is linked to the CPI, and raise the federal government's cost of funding itself, analysts said. Rises in TIPS yields could be exacerbated by poorer liquidity compared to the much larger market for nominal Treasuries.

"This isn't just an academic discussion about getting the right numbers - these numbers matter for TIPS," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase. "There's real money on the line here."

A White House official told Reuters, "historically abnormal revisions in BLS data over the past few years since COVID have called into question the BLS’s accuracy, reliability, and confidence," and that Trump plans to restore trust in the BLS. The bureau did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump ordered McEntarfer's removal on August 1 after data showed a surprise weakening in the U.S. labor market last month. The BLS employment report revealed meaningful revisions to job figures for the prior two months that raised investor worries that the Federal Reserve may need to play catch-up with interest rate cuts.

The BLS is also responsible for the CPI report - a key data point for the Fed and investors to assess inflation dynamics that influence monetary policy decisions.

"That's a problem if you're a policymaker, (and) if you're an investor - TIPS are indexed to changes in the CPI. The Fed needs to know what inflation is," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley.

"It could be a situation where the signal is less credible, which could affect term premiums in the markets, but it may also worsen your ability to conduct not only good policy, but good policy in a timely fashion," he said.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Winkelmann

Cryptocurrency

Political

What to Know:

● White House crypto leadership change and unclear successorship.

● No official confirmation of departure yet.

● Market awaits potential impact insights on policies.

Bo Hines Leaves White House Crypto Role

Speculation surrounds Bo Hines as reports suggest his departure from the White House Crypto Post, though no official confirmation has been observed from primary sources yet.The uncertainty impacts market sentiment and anticipation, with stakeholders closely monitoring official channels for an announcement that could influence cryptocurrency regulation and policy direction.The reported exit of Bo Hines from the White House Crypto Council suggests potential policy shifts. Currently, no official statement confirms his departure. A successor has yet to be named, leaving policy direction unclear.

Unconfirmed Exit May Signal Policy Shifts

The reported exit of Bo Hines from the White House Crypto Council suggests potential policy shifts. Currently, no official statement confirms his departure. A successor has yet to be named, leaving policy direction unclear.

Market Awaits Official Leadership Announcements

The crypto industry remains uncertain about the direction of U.S. policy. Stakeholders are eager to see if future leadership will maintain existing strategies. Market responses are speculative until official announcements confirm leadership changes.

Past Leadership Changes and Market Impact

Past high-profile digital asset leadership changes have often led to market fluctuations. Observing these events can provide insights into potential future impacts once Bo Hines' departure is confirmed.Currently, there are no primary-source confirmations regarding Bo Hines' resignation from his position at the White House Crypto Council, nor any statements from him, the White House, or any potential successor.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Daniel Carter

Political

India is committed to strengthening ties with Ukraine, while calling for a peaceful resolution to its war with Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X on Monday after a conversation with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

"India remains committed to making every possible contribution in this regard, as well as to further strengthening bilateral ties with Ukraine," Modi said.

The two leaders agreed to plan a personal meeting at the United Nations General Assembly in September, Zelenskiy said in a separate social media post. The two discussed sanctions against Russia, including limits on export of Russian energy, particularly oil, Zelenskiy said, adding that he informed Modi about recent Russian attacks.

India has deep-rooted ties with Russia and has maintained a neutral stance on its war in Ukraine. But those links have come under renewed scrutiny by the US after President Donald Trump demanded that India stop buying discounted Russian oil, threatening tariffs of as much as 50% on the South Asian country. Indian officials have argued that its purchases of Russian oil have stabilized the market and prevented a supply crunch.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Devin

Political

President Donald Trump said on Monday he was putting Washington's police department under federal control and ordering the National Guard to deploy to the nation's capital to combat what he said was a wave of lawlessness, despite statistics showing that violent crime hit a 30-year low in 2024.

"I'm deploying the National Guard to help reestablish law, order and public safety in Washington, D.C.," Trump told reporters at the White House, flanked by administration officials including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Attorney General Pam Bondi. "Our capital city has been overtaken by violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals."

Trump's announcement is his latest effort to target Democratic cities by exercising executive power over traditionally local matters. He has dismissed criticism that he is manufacturing a crisis to justify expanding presidential authority.

Hundreds of officers and agents from over a dozen federal agencies, including the FBI, ICE, DEA, and ATF, have already fanned out across the city in recent days.

The Democratic major of Washington, Muriel Bowser, has pushed back on Trump's claims, saying the city is "not experiencing a crime spike" and highlighting that violent crime hit its lowest level in more than three decades last year.

Violent crime fell 26% in the first seven months of 2025 after dropping 35% in 2024, and overall crime dropped 7%, according to the city's police department.

But gun violence remains an issue. In 2023, Washington had the third-highest gun homicide rate among U.S. cities with populations over 500,000, according to gun control advocacy group Everytown for Gun Safety.

The deployment of National Guard troops is a tactic the Republican president used in Los Angeles, where he dispatched 5,000 troops in June in response to protests over his administration's immigration raids. State and local officials objected to Trump's decision as unnecessary and inflammatory.

A federal trial was set to begin on Monday in San Francisco on whether the Trump administration violated U.S. law by deploying National Guard troops and U.S. Marines without the approval of Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom.

The president has broad authority over the 2,700 members of the D.C. National Guard, unlike in states where governors typically hold the power to activate troops. Guard troops have been dispatched to Washington many times, including in response to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters.

During his first term, Trump sent the National Guard into Washington in 2020 to help quash mostly peaceful demonstrations during nationwide protests over police brutality following the murder of George Floyd. Civil rights leaders denounced the deployment, which was opposed by Bowser.

The U.S. military is generally prohibited under law from directly participating in domestic law enforcement activities.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin starts a new week in an exciting place as price action knocks on new all-time highs.

Bitcoin surges to $122,000, the latest sign that price discovery is around the corner.

Dip discussions focus on the weekend’s CME gap, which offered $117,000 as a retracement target.

CPI and PPI are due this week as markets cement bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.

USDT transactions from whales suggest a lack of interest in profit-booking.

A red Coinbase Premium spells potential problems for Bitcoin during the upcoming US trading sessions.

Bitcoin traders assess $122,000 weekend surge

Bitcoin price action wasted no time boosting the bulls after the weekly close.

A swift surge took BTC/USD beyond $122,000, and local highs of $122,312 on Bitstamp came before a retracement began, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In doing so, Bitcoin liquidated over $100 million in short positions as it took out a wall of liquidity just below all-time highs.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass now shows resistance being added at $123,000 and above. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Reacting, market participants were relieved but cautious. BTC/USD, they argued, could well trend back down to consolidate gains before attacking all-time highs.

“Bitcoin looks great, almost a new all-time high. However, it’s a weekend move,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe wrote in a post on X Monday.

“I would assume we'll see some tests on lower levels before we'll continue. Such a downwards test = violent move on Altcoins = buy the dip season.”BTC/USDT four-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Eyeing overall leverage trends, meanwhile, trader BitBull had a bullish signal that should extend far beyond the current battle for price discovery.

The ratio of leveraged futures to spot buying is circling lows not seen since the pit of Bitcoin’s last bear market in late 2022.

“That’s a rare signal,” he summarised.

“It means this rally isn’t being propped up by leveraged longs that can get wiped out overnight. It’s being driven by spot demand, the kind that tends to hold through volatility.” BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

Bitcoin futures to spot ratio. Source: BitBull/X

All eyes on the new Bitcoin CME gap

When it comes to a BTC price dip, market participants have one thing on their mind.

Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong.

The weekend’s move up has created a new “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures, and observers are keenly watching for signs that it will get “filled.” BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

CME gaps are a classic feature of the Bitcoin trading landscape, and recently, price has circled back up or down as required to fill them, often in days or even hours.

“Could see a quick fill somewhere this week — something to keep in mind,” trader Jelle acknowledged, echoing sentiment from across the trading community. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

CME Bitcoin futures one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Filling the latest gap completely would take BTC/USD back to just above $117,200, a level already key as a resistance/support flip zone.

On Sunday, trader and analyst Rekt Capital described the upcoming weekly close as “decisive” as it determined the fate of the $117,200 mark.

Last week, Rekt Capital focused on reclaiming that level as key to the overall BTC price recovery in a “cycle of downside deviations.” BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

CPI headlines “crucial” US macro data week

The July prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are due this week, and markets are keen for policy signals.

Interest rates remain on the agenda for risk-asset traders amid continued pressure to act on the Federal Reserve from President Donald Trump.

“This week’s inflation data will be crucial as markets look ahead to the September Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter told X followers. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Current data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a rate cut by the Fed next month, with almost 90% odds, contrasting with the 57% figure from a month ago.

CPI itself is expected to come in slightly higher than last month, something that will lend even more weight to a surprise cooling, said BitBull.

“If CPI comes in lower than expected, the September rate cut will be confirmed. This will help risk-on assets rally even more,” he said in an X post Monday, calling the data release the week’s “biggest crypto event.”

“In case CPI comes in higher than expected, rate cut probability will go down along with crypto prices. Given that the unemployment rate has been going up lately, CPI is expected to come lower, which will be good for the markets.”

Various senior Fed officials will take to the stage alongside the data, potentially shedding further light on the mood.

Whales hold off on selling BTC

For onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, one altcoin blockchain is worth watching when it comes to Bitcoin price reversal signals.

In one of its Quicktake blog posts on Monday, contributor Amr Taha suggested that large transfers of stablecoin Tether on Tron have coincided with BTC/USD corrections.

“When $10M+ transactions exceed $5B in a day, it often signals large-scale profit-taking in Bitcoin,” he said.

A chart shows daily wallet balance changes for TRC-20 USDT wallets, with transactions worth $10 million or more of particular interest, as these are thought to belong to whales. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

USDT TRC-20 daily wallet balance change data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Taha offers two examples of the process at work. On July 16 and July 23, spikes in whale USDT transactions preceded Bitcoin price corrections of 4.5% and 3.8%, respectively.

Now, however, whales have yet to develop an appetite to reduce risk.

“Large USDT movements can serve as an early warning for BTC corrections,” Taha concluded.

“Recent data indicates that the lack of $10M+ transactions suggests whales are not cashing out into USDT.”

“Pump and dump” fears over red Coinbase Premium

Concerns over the strength of the BTC price breakout are already going public.

For fellow CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn, a potential problem centered on the largest US exchange, Coinbase.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference in BTC prices between the Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs, is back in negative territory.

“Coinbase Pump & Dump?” he queried on X.

“Price jumped from $118K to $122K earlier today as investors piled in. But the Coinbase Premium Index flipped red right after.”Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

A “red” Premium suggests a lack of sustained interest from Coinbase users, putting more pressure on the start of US TradFi trading hours to support higher prices.

Trader Roman, staying cautious as the market gained, stressed that a lack of trading volume had bearish implications for an emerging boom in the largest altcoin, Ether.

As Cointelegraph reported, ETH/USD hit its highest levels since late 2021 over the weekend.

“Great to see a break of large resistance but 2 issues I see are bear divs and low volume,” Roman told X followers in one of his latest posts.

“High Volume ALWAYS validates breakouts & I don’t see it here. Wouldn’t surprise me if we went sideways/slight down before up.”ETH/USD one-hour chart with volume data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Source: Cointelegraph

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Samantha Luan

Commodity

Political

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

US President Donald Trump said he hopes China massively stepped up its purchases of American soybeans — comments that come a day before a trade truce expires.“China is worried about its shortage of soybeans,” Trump wrote on the Truth Social website on Monday. “I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China’s trade deficit with the US.”

Trump also thanked Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the post, without saying why.Soybean futures in Chicago rose back above US$10 a bushel for the first time in a week, jumping more than 2% after the post.China has long fretted about its supplies of soybeans, which are a key element of the nation’s diet and livestock feed. Beijing faces an Aug 12 deadline for its tariff truce with the US to expire, though the Trump administration has signalled that is likely to be extended.China has stepped up purchases of soybeans from its top supplier Brazil, and is also testing trial cargoes of soybean meal from Argentina, to secure supplies of the animal feed ingredient amid the trade war with the US.

The world’s top buyer of the oilseed hasn’t booked any cargoes of US soybeans as of end July for the upcoming marketing year that starts in September, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.China agreed to increase buying of US agricultural goods like soybeans during the so-called phase one trade agreement reached during Trump’s first term. Beijing fell well short of the purchase targets in that pact.While China and the US have been trying to work out a trade deal, other issues have been complicating their relationship. Last week, China defended its imports of Russian oil, pushing back against US threats of new tariffs after Washington slapped secondary levies on India for buying energy from Moscow.

In July, the Trump administration reversed course to allow Nvidia to sell the H20 artificial intelligence accelerator to China.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Forex

The US dollar started the week quietly as traders waited for important events: July inflation data, the US-China trade deal deadline, and the Trump-Putin meeting on Friday. The US dollar showed small attempts to rise toward resistance at 98.5 but stayed just above 98 at the beginning of the week.

Last week’s weak employment data and the temporary appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve raised hopes that interest rates might be cut in September. This helped explain the US dollar’s slow start to the week.

Inflation Data Takes Center Stage This Week

Markets are focused on the July consumer price index (CPI) data coming out tomorrow. Headline inflation, which has been rising since April, is expected to reach 2.8% in July, while core inflation is forecasted to rise to 3%. Deutsche Bank (DB) predicts headline CPI will slow with a 0.1% month-on-month increase, while core CPI will rise by 0.21%, keeping the same pace as last month.

If the data comes in lower than expected, it could increase pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates and cause a sell-off in the US dollar. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected inflation might confirm the Fed’s tight policy and lead to a short-term bounce in the US dollar.

Meanwhile, US-China trade talks are at a critical point. With the August 12 deadline set by President Trump approaching, the market expects a new 90-day extension. This could boost risk appetite, but any new tariffs may raise inflation expectations. Also, NVIDIA (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have agreed to pay 15% of their China sales revenue to the US government, causing volatility in tech stocks.

At the end of the week, the news that President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss Ukraine has raised geopolitical tensions. A peace message from the meeting might increase risk appetite globally, but if not, demand for safe-haven assets will rise.

Packed Data Calendar This Week

After the inflation data, the producer price index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims will be released on Thursday. On Friday, retail sales, industrial production, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index are scheduled. Alongside these, data from Germany’s CPI, UK’s GSYİH, Eurozone’s growth, and Japan’s GSYİH will also be closely watched.

This busy data week could lead to sharp and short-term moves in the US dollar. With both economic and geopolitical developments in focus, investor reactions may make it hard for the US dollar to find a clear direction against major currencies.

Though the index shows the recent downward trend has paused, there is no clear sign of increased demand for the US dollar yet. Uncertainty around tariffs leaves their impact on the US economy unclear. At the same time, recession fears linger after weak employment data, putting pressure on the US dollar. The ongoing tension between the Trump administration and the Fed raises concerns about the central bank’s independence.

July’s inflation data will be crucial for the US dollar’s path because it may influence the Fed’s interest rate decision in September.

US Dollar Technical Outlook

US Dollar recovery paused early this month at the key psychological level of 100. Last week, the index trended down but found some support near 98 after breaking below 98.50.

US Dollar: CPI Data Poised to End Range-Bound Price Action This Week_1

This week, if the US Dollar holds above 97.8, the 98.50 level will be important again. Staying above this could push the index back toward the 99.5 to 100 range. But if it fails to break past 98.50, selling pressure may increase, pushing the downtrend closer to 96.

Technically, short-term indicators suggest a bearish trend. Still, as long as the DXY stays above its rising support line from July, it could see upward moves. Inflation data above expectations and positive geopolitical news could help support a short-term rise in the DXY.