10 Questions That Matter Going Into 2026 (and What To Check In Your Portfolio)

SAXO

Forex

Political

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

2025 rewarded the narrative: capex, scale, and the promise that AI monetisation would show up "soon." 2026 is where markets may get less patient and more forensic: show me margins, show me pricing power, show me cash flow.

Key points:

· 2026 may be less about a neat "base case" and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration).

· The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

· Diversification won't be about owning more tickers. It'll be about owning different risk drivers—and knowing what you really own when the story breaks.

Is 2026 the year the earnings test finally replaces the "AI story" as the market's main pricing engine?

The winners can still win—but the easy beta may fade. In a world of high expectations, "good" results can be punished if they're merely not amazing.Check your holdings: Do you own a lot of the same mega-cap AI names (directly or via broad US growth funds).Balance idea: Investors may consider seeking earnings breadth, for example by including some companies with steadier cash flows and reasonable valuations.Risk to note: Diversifying away from the leaders can mean lagging if the AI trade keeps powering ahead.

Are we underpricing a world where fiscal policy matters more than central banks?

The last decade taught investors to obsess over the Fed. The next decade may be shaped more by government budgets, debt, and bond issuance, plus election-driven policy shifts.If fiscal is the louder force, central banks may be reacting—not leading—and "support" may look different.Check your holdings: Are you relying on falling rates and central bank reassurance to carry your portfolio?Balance idea: One approach could be to seek a more 'all‑weather' mix rather than relying solely on falling rates.Risk to note: Long bonds can still outperform if growth weakens, inflation falls faster than expected, or markets price deeper Fed cuts.

If the Fed keeps cutting, why would long bonds rally… unless growth breaks?

It's a clean story: "cuts = bonds up." But the long end of the bond market often needs a reason—usually weaker growth—to rally meaningfully.If growth holds up, long-term yields can stay elevated and long bonds can still swing around if term premium can stay sticky and deficits can keep issuance heavy.Check your holdings: Are you treating long-term bonds as your "safe" anchor?Balance idea: Some investors diversify rate exposure by combining shorter, higher‑quality bonds with a smaller allocation to longer duration.Risk to note: Long bonds can fall even during cuts if inflation worries or bond supply keep yields high.

If the USD rebounds, who feels it first: EM risk, commodities, or US multinationals' earnings?

A stronger USD often hits the most sensitive areas first: EM currencies and risk appetite, then commodities, and later global earnings via currency translation.It's rarely a gentle move—and it can tighten financial conditions globally.Check your holdings: How much of your portfolio depends on a weaker USD (EM funds, commodities, non-US equities)?Balance idea: Currency exposures can be diversified so that global allocations are not all leaning the same way on the USD.Risk to note: FX moves can reverse quickly—hedging or rebalancing can reduce risk, but it's never perfect.

Will "higher for longer" morph into "volatile forever" as inflation becomes less predictable?

The real risk isn't inflation staying high. It's inflation becoming erratic—more sensitive to supply shocks, geopolitics, climate events, and policy intervention.That kind of world is hostile to complacency: it keeps correlations unstable, makes policy guidance less valuable, and can make "set-and-forget" disappoint.Check your holdings: Are you built for calm markets (one style dominates, low shock protection)?Balance idea: Some investors use 'shock absorbers' such as maintaining liquidity, limiting leverage, and diversifying across return drivers.Risk to note: Holding more liquidity or hedges can reduce upside when markets trend higher.

If real assets led in 2025, is 2026 a mean-reversion year—or the start of a longer scarcity cycle?

Mean reversion is tempting: "they've run, so they'll cool." The structural question is bigger: are energy, metals, and infrastructure becoming strategic inputs again?If scarcity is real, 2025 may have been a preview—but if demand slows, "hard assets" can correct sharply.Check your holdings: Did you chase real assets late, or avoid them entirely?Balance idea: If you own them, keep sizing disciplined and diversify within the theme; if you don't, avoid all-or-nothing thinking.Risk to note: Commodities and related equities can be volatile and can fall even in inflationary narratives.

Does the next equity drawdown come from a macro shock… or from positioning/crowding in the same "safe winners"?

Markets don't always break because the economy breaks. Sometimes they break because everyone owns the same lifeboats.Great companies can still be risky if positioning is one-sided and expectations are stretched.Check your holdings: Are your "defensive" holdings actually the same crowded trade everyone owns?Balance idea: Reduce single-trade risk: spread exposure across different styles (growth + value + quality + cash return) rather than one "winner basket."Risk to note: Broadening out can dilute performance if the winners keep winning.

If geopolitics stays hot, do markets keep treating it as noise—until one day it's not?

The market's default setting is to discount geopolitics—right up until it hits energy flows, shipping routes, sanctions, cyber risk, or supply chains in a measurable way.The uncomfortable part: the tipping point is rarely telegraphed. It arrives as a "small" headline that changes behaviour—insurance costs, freight rates, inventory hoarding, or policy response.Check your holdings: Are you exposed to fragile supply chains or big energy input costs without buffers?Balance idea: Add resilience, like include some assets that historically cope better with supply shocks (without turning the whole portfolio into a geopolitical bet).Risk to note: Geopolitical hedges can be costly if tensions ease or markets move on.

If valuations stay rich, do markets pay for growth, durability, or cash returns—and which one gets punished first?

When valuations are high, markets get picky about the type of quality. In choppier regimes, durability and cash returns can matter more—but leadership can rotate fast.Consensus trades don't need bad news; they just need less good news.Check your holdings: Are you paying any price for "quality growth," or chasing yield without checking sustainability?Balance idea: Blend the three virtues—growth, durability, and sustainable cash returns—without overloading one.Risk to note: Rotations can be sharp; blending styles may smooth outcomes but won't eliminate drawdowns.

Is 2026 the year investors stop diversifying by assets and start diversifying by risk drivers?

"Diversification" often means more tickers that still behave the same in stress.2026 may reward portfolios built around different exposures: rates sensitivity, growth sensitivity, inflation sensitivity, liquidity sensitivity, FX sensitivity, and geopolitical sensitivity.That doesn't mean avoiding equities or loving bonds—it means knowing what regime each holding is secretly betting on.Check your holdings: If both equities and bonds fall together, what else do you have?Balance idea: Build a mix that can live through different worlds (growth surprise, inflation surprise, USD swings, liquidity shocks).Risk to note: In severe stress, correlations can rise across many assets—diversification helps, but it's not a shield.

Investment strategy lens for 2026

I'm not walking into 2026 with "answers." I'm walking in with a hierarchy of questions—because the market is shifting from a story-led regime to a constraint-led regime: fiscal constraints, supply constraints, geopolitical constraints, valuation constraints.

If there's one year-end reminder worth keeping: the biggest errors usually come from assuming tomorrow will reward the same exposures as yesterday.

Source: SAXO

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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Gerik

Economic

Global Markets Lifted by Risk-On Sentiment and Safe-Haven Demand

Asian equities advanced modestly on Tuesday, buoyed by momentum buying as investors positioned themselves ahead of the holiday break. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.31%, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 inched up 0.1%. Wall Street’s Monday gains, driven by AI optimism and regulatory approvals in the pharma sector, carried over into Asian sessions.

In the U.S., Nvidia rallied after news it would begin shipping H200 chips to Chinese clients by mid-February, while Novo Nordisk surged 6% in after-hours trading following the FDA’s approval of its new weight-loss pill. These developments contributed to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posting another positive session, with analysts citing “Santa Claus rally” momentum and increased exposure to equities and commodities heading into year-end.

Precious Metals Hit All-Time Highs on Geopolitical and Inflation Fears

Spot gold and silver vaulted to record highs, with gold breaking past $4,480 and silver exceeding $69. The rally was largely driven by persistent safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty. A key trigger was renewed geopolitical risk stemming from U.S. efforts to seize Venezuelan oil tankers, which added to already elevated tensions around global energy supply and sanctions policy.

The surge in metals also reflects investor concerns over persistent inflationary risks and central bank policy fatigue, where the recent dovish tone from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, has encouraged a shift into inflation-hedged assets.

Yen Firms Slightly, Markets Brace for Tokyo's Next Move

The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 156.57 per U.S. dollar in early Tuesday trade, reversing some of its recent losses as traders responded to heightened intervention rhetoric from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. The warning came as Japan grapples with a weak currency despite the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike to 0.75%, its highest in three decades.

Katayama emphasized that the yen’s depreciation was “speculative” and “not reflective of fundamentals,” giving Tokyo a legitimate basis for intervention under its September agreement with Washington. This shift in tone has restored short-term stability to the yen but has not fully reversed the bearish trend caused by lingering interest rate differentials.

The market interpreted her remarks as a clear signal that Japan is now more willing to act decisively if the yen continues to depreciate beyond tolerable levels. The timing and scale of any actual currency intervention will depend on both domestic inflation conditions and the yen's sensitivity to U.S. data, including today’s GDP release.

Oil Pauses After Supply Fears, But Volatility Remains Elevated

After climbing on Monday amid concerns about energy supply disruptions linked to U.S. tanker seizures, oil prices paused. Brent crude eased to $62.03 per barrel and U.S. crude dipped slightly to $57.92. The softness reflects cautious sentiment as traders digest both geopolitical developments and upcoming U.S. economic data, which may influence broader demand forecasts.

While the correction is marginal, the underlying drivers—especially enforcement actions against Venezuela—continue to inject volatility into the oil complex, potentially setting the stage for sharper moves if tensions escalate further or new sanctions are announced.

A Balancing Act Between Risk Appetite and Geopolitical Caution

Tuesday’s global market performance highlights the current paradox: rising investor confidence, seen through equity gains and a possible year-end rally, coexists with intensifying geopolitical risks that are pushing safe-haven assets like gold and silver to historic highs.

The yen’s modest recovery, paired with Japan’s explicit threat of intervention, introduces a layer of uncertainty in currency markets. Meanwhile, the looming release of key U.S. GDP data will provide investors with fresh macroeconomic context, potentially influencing expectations for Q1 2026 monetary policy across the globe.

For now, bullish momentum remains intact, but it rests on fragile ground, vulnerable to policy missteps, geopolitical flare-ups, or disappointing U.S. economic data.

Source: Reuters

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Winkelmann

Stocks

Economic

Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Europe sales contracted in November, data showed on Tuesday, while Chinese rival BYD (HK:1211) logged strong year-on-year growth and a steadily increasing market share in the region.

Tesla's sales in the European Union, the Euro Free Trade Association and the UK fell 11.8% year-on-year to 22,801 units in November, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association showed.

Tesla's market share also contracted to 2.1% from 2.5% a year ago, but improved from the dismal 0.6% seen in the prior month.

In contrast, BYD's November sales surged 221.8% year-on-year to 21,133 units, while the Chinese automaker's market share rose to 2% from 0.6% a year ago. BYD's market share also improved from the 1.6% share seen in October.

This came as overall new vehicle registrations in Europe rose 2.4% year-on-year to 1.08 million units, ACEA data showed. The rise was driven chiefly by improving sales of battery and hybrid electric vehicles, the latter of which also commanded the greatest share of the European market, at 34.6%.

While Tesla's sales in the region declined at a relatively smaller pace in November than that seen in prior months, they still reflected a sustained downturn for the EV maker, as it grappled with heightened competition from local and Chinese players.

Tesla was also still struggling to recover its brand image after CEO Elon Musk's political actions alienated a large portion of the EV maker's customer base earlier this year.

BYD has become a main competitor to Tesla in Europe and China, with the automaker having shored up its European offerings this year. BYD was also well-received despite having to contend with high European import duties.

The Chinese automaker has put expanding into Europe and other regions at the top of its agenda, especially as sales slow in main market China.

BYD also holds an edge over Tesla in that it sells the wildly popular hybrid category. Hybrids have become increasingly popular among cost-conscious consumers unwilling to pay the high asking price for a battery EV.

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Economic

Japan Hardens Currency Stance Amid Yen Volatility

On Tuesday, Japan’s newly appointed Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a forceful statement regarding the yen’s sharp depreciation, asserting that current exchange rate movements are speculative and disconnected from the underlying fundamentals of Japan’s economy. This marks Tokyo’s most direct intervention warning in 2025, underscoring growing official concern over the yen’s weakness and its domestic repercussions.

Katayama stated that Japan would take “appropriate action” to counter excessive currency fluctuations, referencing a joint statement with the United States issued in September, which affirmed that while exchange rates should remain market-driven, both nations reserved the right to intervene during episodes of excessive volatility.

Market Reaction and the Policy Backdrop

Following Katayama’s comments, the yen rebounded slightly to 156.36 per U.S. dollar but remained close to the 11-month low of 157.78 recorded last Friday. The market’s immediate response illustrates a strong correlation between verbal signaling from Japanese authorities and short-term currency stabilization efforts.

The shift in tone is particularly noteworthy because Katayama had been more cautious just a day earlier, refraining from labeling recent yen movements as a deviation from fundamentals. The pivot in rhetoric indicates rising pressure on policymakers to address the domestic economic consequences of yen depreciation.

Fundamentals vs. Market Perception: A Divergence

Despite the Bank of Japan's historic move last Friday to raise interest rates to 0.75% their highest in three decades the yen weakened. This outcome reflects a divergence between policy fundamentals and investor expectations. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting press conference appeared to temper market expectations for further rate hikes, leading to continued yen selling.

This apparent contradiction tightening monetary policy yet observing continued currency weakness forms the basis of Katayama’s argument. The yen's depreciation, in her view, no longer reflects macroeconomic fundamentals but is being driven by speculation and misinterpretation of policy intent.

Domestic Pressures: Inflation and Political Consequences

A weaker yen poses serious economic and political challenges for Japan. While it may benefit exporters, the downside is a pronounced increase in import costs, particularly for energy and raw materials. This, in turn, fuels domestic inflation and raises the cost of living for households a politically sensitive issue.

With Japan recently emerging from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, any erosion in public support due to inflation-linked hardships could complicate the government's fiscal and economic reform plans. Intervention, even symbolic, may be used to contain inflation expectations and maintain confidence in Japan’s broader policy trajectory.

Intervention Threat Real, but Tactically Calibrated

Japan's latest signal marks a decisive step toward potential foreign exchange market intervention, but it remains calibrated within the parameters of its bilateral commitment with the United States to uphold market-determined exchange rates. The distinction lies in timing and justification: Tokyo appears willing to act only when volatility exceeds acceptable bounds or breaks with fundamentals.

With the yen under pressure despite rising interest rates, Japanese policymakers face a delicate balancing act between verbal guidance, actual intervention, and continued normalization of monetary policy. The global market will closely watch for further signals or actions in the coming weeks, especially if the yen nears or breaches the psychological 160 threshold.

Source: Reuters

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Israel informed the US that Iran may be preparing an attack on Israel.

2. The U.S. has seized several oil tankers in waters near Venezuela

3. The peace talks between Ukraine and the U.S. failed to achieve a breakthrough

4. Miran: No interest rate cut next year may trigger an economic recession

5. Japan's finance minister indicated that bold actions could be taken against the yen

[News Details]

Israel informed the US that Iran may be preparing an attack on Israel.

This month, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conducted military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and other areas. According to U.S. sources on the 21st, Israeli officials warned the U.S. government over the weekend that Iran's exercises might be preparations for an attack on Israel. An Israeli source stated that current intelligence indicates Iran has only mobilized military forces within its borders. The probability of an Iranian attack is less than 50%, but Israel is unwilling to take the risk. Since the outbreak of a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7, 2023, the Israeli military's risk tolerance has been far lower than before. U.S. intelligence agencies have not found any indication that Iran will launch an attack.

The U.S. has seized several oil tankers in waters near Venezuela

In recent days, the U.S. has repeatedly seized and intercepted oil tankers in waters near Venezuela. Faced with continued pressure from the U.S., Venezuelan oil industry experts stated that the Venezuelan oil industry is still operating normally, while the U.S., which has long relied on Venezuelan oil supplies, is likely to suffer the consequences of its own actions. Martínez, president of the Latin American Oil Entrepreneurs Association, stated that the U.S. has long relied on heavy crude oil imported from Venezuela to manufacture industrial products, forming a highly integrated supply chain. Numerous refineries capable of processing Venezuelan heavy crude oil have been built in Texas and other parts of the U.S. The current U.S. blockade will undoubtedly impact these companies and have a negative impact on them.

The peace talks between Ukraine and the U.S. failed to achieve a breakthrough

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on Monday that the Ukrainian delegation had concluded a series of talks with the U.S. in Miami and departed for Ukraine. According to foreign media reports, the latest round of negotiations between Ukraine and the US failed to achieve a breakthrough. Zelenskyy stated that the delegation would submit the details of the negotiations to him that evening. He added that both sides had completed all key work in the initial draft phase of the 20-point "peace plan," and the overall framework of the plan was complete. While not perfect, the core objectives had been achieved.

Trump has been urging Ukraine and Russia to reach an agreement to end the war, but so far the two countries have failed to reach an agreement on key issues, including Moscow's demand that Ukraine hand over parts of Donbas that it failed to seize militarily. According to Reuters, citing sources familiar with U.S. intelligence, U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Putin still wants to occupy the whole of Ukraine and reclaim the European parts that once belonged to the Soviet Union. Kremlin spokesman Peskov stated that this claim is completely untrue.

Miran: No interest rate cut next year may trigger an economic recession

Federal Reserve Governor Miran stated that if the Fed does not continue cutting interest rates next year, it may face the risk of triggering a recession. He anticipates no economic downturn in the short term, but rising unemployment should prompt Fed officials to continue cutting rates. The unemployment rate may have already exceeded expectations; therefore, the data we have should prompt a shift towards a dovish stance. Miran, whose term as a Fed governor ends in January, has been advocating for larger rate cuts since joining in September.

Japan's finance minister indicated that bold actions could be taken against the yen

The Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike last week, but the yen weakened. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued her strongest warning to speculators to date, stating that bold action could be taken against exchange rate fluctuations that were inconsistent with fundamentals. In an interview with Bloomberg, Satsuki Katayama said the movements were clearly not based on fundamentals but were speculative. "Regarding such movements, we have made it clear that we will take bold action, as stated in the joint statement by the Japan and the U.S. finance ministers," she said.

In fact, on the same day the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, Satsuki Katayama warned that Japan would appropriately address excessive volatility, including volatility driven by speculators, in accordance with the joint statement signed in September between the U.S. and Japan. This statement suggests that the intervention was endorsed by the U.S.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 17:00 Swiss ZEW Investor Confidence Index for December

UTC+8 21:30 Canada's October GDP

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. Q3 Real GDP

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. October Durable Goods Orders MoM Rate

UTC+8 22:15 U.S. November Industrial Production MoM Rate

UTC+8 23:00 U.S. December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

UTC+8 02:30 Bank of Canada Meeting Minutes

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Justin

Commodity

Forex

In a stunning display of market strength, spot silver has rocketed to a historic milestone, briefly touching an unprecedented $69.99 per ounce. This surge isn't just a number—it's a powerful signal reshaping the precious metals landscape. For investors and market watchers, understanding the forces behind this rally is crucial. What's propelling this metal to such dizzying heights, and is this momentum sustainable?

What's Driving the Record Surge in Spot Silver?

The price of spot silver isn't moving in a vacuum. Several powerful economic currents are converging to create this perfect storm. Primarily, investors are seeking a reliable hedge against persistent global inflation. When currency values are uncertain, tangible assets like silver become a sanctuary.

Moreover, industrial demand is a silent powerhouse. Silver is a critical component in solar panels, electric vehicles, and countless electronics. The global push for green technology is creating a structural, long-term demand that supports higher price floors. Therefore, the current price reflects both its monetary and industrial value.

How Significant is the Move Toward $70?

Breaching the $70 barrier is a monumental psychological and technical achievement. For years, this level seemed like a distant target. Now, with spot silver trading firmly at $69.75, it's within immediate reach. This breakthrough shatters previous resistance levels and can attract a new wave of institutional investment.

Key factors in this surge include:

· Geopolitical Tensions: Global instability drives safe-haven buying.

· Weakening Dollar: A softer U.S. dollar makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for foreign buyers.

· Supply Constraints: Mining challenges can limit new supply, tightening the market.

What Are the Challenges for Silver Investors?

While the rally is exhilarating, savvy investors know that volatility is the constant companion of commodity markets. The price of spot silver can experience sharp corrections. Furthermore, rising interest rates can increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals.

Another consideration is market sentiment. A sudden shift in economic data or central bank policy can trigger profit-taking. However, the fundamental drivers—industrial demand and its role as a store of value—provide a sturdy foundation that may cushion against extreme downturns.

Actionable Insights for Navigating the Silver Market

So, what should you do in this dynamic environment? First, avoid emotional, reactionary trading. Instead, consider a disciplined approach. Dollar-cost averaging into a position can mitigate timing risk. Also, think about the different ways to gain exposure to spot silver prices.

You have several options:

· Physical Bullion: Coins and bars offer direct ownership.

· ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds): Provide liquidity and ease of trading.

· Mining Stocks: Offer leveraged exposure to price moves but carry company-specific risks.

Diversification across these methods can balance risk and reward effectively.

A Compelling Summary of the Silver Surge

The record-breaking ascent of spot silver is a landmark event with deep roots in macroeconomic trends. It highlights the metal's dual identity as both a financial safe haven and an industrial necessity. While the path forward may include volatility, the underlying fundamentals appear robust. This rally underscores the importance of including tangible assets in a well-rounded investment strategy for the modern era.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What is spot silver?Spot silver refers to the current market price for immediate delivery and payment of physical silver, as opposed to futures contracts for delivery at a later date.

Why is silver price rising so fast?The price is rising due to a combination of high inflation (promoting safe-haven buying), strong industrial demand from green technologies, geopolitical uncertainty, and a relatively softer U.S. dollar.

Is it too late to invest in silver?While prices are at record highs, many analysts believe the long-term fundamentals remain strong. A strategic, long-term approach with careful position sizing is generally advised over trying to time the market peak.

What is the difference between silver and spot silver?"Silver" is the general commodity. "Spot silver" specifically denotes the live, real-time price for buying or selling silver for immediate settlement.

Can the price of silver go back down?Yes, commodity prices are inherently volatile. Corrections are normal and can be triggered by shifts in monetary policy, improved economic data, or changes in investor sentiment.

How can I track the spot silver price?You can track it on major financial news websites, commodity trading platforms, and through charts provided by brokerage firms that offer precious metals trading.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Samantha Luan

Stocks

Economic

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is planning to expand its acquisitions and investments in Japan's booming corporate deals market over the next decade by about ¥800 billion ($5.1 billion), with a focus on mid-sized firms.

The Wall Street investment bank is looking for corporate clients in areas such as management buyouts, subsidiary sales and business succession planning, said Yu Itoki, managing director in its Japan unit's growth equity and private equity team. He sees strong global institutional demand for Japanese allocations, while more and more companies are keen to carry out projects such as MBOs and sales of non-core assets.

"We're in an environment now where we can invest at double or triple the pace compared with before," Itoki said in an interview. "Supply and demand are aligned" between investors targeting Japan and companies seeking funding, he said.

Deal volumes involving Japanese companies in 2025 jumped to record highs of around $350 billion, as corporate governance reforms aimed at bolstering shareholder returns led to more transactions. Multibillion-dollar megadeals have emerged, but Itoki said those aren't the main target for Goldman because there's intense competition for them, reducing their appeal.

The bank is instead targeting mid-sized companies valued from about ¥30 billion to ¥300 billion that tend to lack capital and human resources needed to expand overseas or carry out mergers and acquisitions, he said.

"In many cases, the quality of their business is high," with a big market share in Japan, "but they lack the resources necessary for further growth," Itoki said.

Goldman has already started such investments, acquiring in 2022 the road-building company Nippo Corp. with an investment of around ¥200 billion in collaboration with Eneos Holdings Inc. In 2024 the US bank teamed up with the founding family and others to carry out an MBO for Nihon Housing Co. for around ¥94 billion.

The US investment bank is focused on four sectors, including tech firms it's invested in like taxi dispatch app operator Go Inc. and smart lock company Bitkey Inc.

Health care is another area, and Kakehashi Inc. straddles health and technology, providing software data over a cloud service to pharmacies. The company raised about ¥14 billion from Goldman Sachs and existing shareholders earlier this year.

A third preferred sector is industrials, a broad area that includes Nippo and Nihon Housing, according to Itoki. Raksul Inc., a web-based service provider is another, and it's just announced that it will carry out an MBO for ¥120 billion.

Industrial firms aren't "necessarily experiencing high growth," but they have "high quality technology and services, and with ample room for value improvement through operational efficiency and slimming down of balance sheets," Itoki said.

Goldman didn't have holdings in the fourth sector, consumer firms, until it acquired Burger King Japan, announcing the deal in November. It bought the fast food business from Hong Kong investment company Affinity Equity Partners for around ¥70 billion.

Quick service restaurants like Burger King have shown high growth since the Covid-19 pandemic, with hamburger joints doing especially well, said Itoki.

It takes time and money for overseas private equity funds to set up their own teams and invest directly in Japan due to the language barrier and different business practices and regulations.

"Many investors think it is rational to entrust their funds as LPs to houses with teams and track records in Japan," Itoki said, referring to limited partners. With funds entrusted to Goldman, "I want to responsibly make allocations to help Japanese companies grow."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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10 Questions That Matter Going Into 2026 (and What To Check In Your Portfolio)

Key points:

Is 2026 the year the earnings test finally replaces the "AI story" as the market's main pricing engine?

Are we underpricing a world where fiscal policy matters more than central banks?

If the Fed keeps cutting, why would long bonds rally… unless growth breaks?

If the USD rebounds, who feels it first: EM risk, commodities, or US multinationals' earnings?

Will "higher for longer" morph into "volatile forever" as inflation becomes less predictable?

If real assets led in 2025, is 2026 a mean-reversion year—or the start of a longer scarcity cycle?

Does the next equity drawdown come from a macro shock… or from positioning/crowding in the same "safe winners"?

If geopolitics stays hot, do markets keep treating it as noise—until one day it's not?

If valuations stay rich, do markets pay for growth, durability, or cash returns—and which one gets punished first?

Is 2026 the year investors stop diversifying by assets and start diversifying by risk drivers?

Investment strategy lens for 2026

Source: SAXO

Stocks and Silver Climb as Yen Stabilizes Amid Intervention Watch

Global Markets Lifted by Risk-On Sentiment and Safe-Haven Demand

Precious Metals Hit All-Time Highs on Geopolitical and Inflation Fears

Yen Firms Slightly, Markets Brace for Tokyo's Next Move

Oil Pauses After Supply Fears, But Volatility Remains Elevated

A Balancing Act Between Risk Appetite and Geopolitical Caution

Source: Reuters

Tesla Europe Sales Fall Nearly 12% In Nov, Rival BYD Gains More Ground

Source: Investing

Japan Signals Currency Market Intervention as Yen Nears 11-Month Low

Japan Hardens Currency Stance Amid Yen Volatility

Market Reaction and the Policy Backdrop

Fundamentals vs. Market Perception: A Divergence

Domestic Pressures: Inflation and Political Consequences

Intervention Threat Real, but Tactically Calibrated

Source: Reuters

Oil Tanker Incident Stacks Up with Middle East Tensions, Escalating Energy Geopolitical Risks

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

Spot Silver Soars: Historic Surge To Near $70 Signals Major Market Shift

What's Driving the Record Surge in Spot Silver?

How Significant is the Move Toward $70?

Key factors in this surge include:

What Are the Challenges for Silver Investors?

Actionable Insights for Navigating the Silver Market

You have several options:

A Compelling Summary of the Silver Surge

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Source: CryptoSlate

Goldman To Ramp Up Investment In Japan’s Mid-Cap Companies

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Risk Disclosure