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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6870.39
6870.39
6870.39
6895.79
6858.28
+13.27
+ 0.19%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47954.98
47954.98
47954.98
48133.54
47871.51
+104.05
+ 0.22%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23578.12
23578.12
23578.12
23680.03
23506.00
+72.99
+ 0.31%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.830
98.910
98.830
98.960
98.810
-0.120
-0.12%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16524
1.16532
1.16524
1.16539
1.16341
+0.00098
+ 0.08%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33378
1.33388
1.33378
1.33399
1.33151
+0.00066
+ 0.05%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4199.36
4199.81
4199.36
4211.68
4190.61
+1.45
+ 0.03%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.832
59.869
59.832
60.063
59.752
+0.023
+ 0.04%
--

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China's CSI Ai Index Up More Than 3%

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Australia Treasurer Chalmers: Mid-Year Teview Will Not Be A Mini-Budget, Will Include Savings

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Australia Treasurer Chalmers: Will Not Extend Electrictiy Rebates

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Most Active China Coke Contract Falls 6.1% To 1532 Yuan/Metric Ton

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China's Yuan Opens Trade At 7.0683 Per Dollar Versus Last Close At 7.0720

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Most Active China Coke Contract Falls 4.8%

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Most Active China Coking Coal Contract Falls More Than 5%

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China's Central Bank Sets Yuan Mid-Point At 7.0764 / Dlr Versus Last Close 7.0720

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Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara: Have Seen No Change In China's Export Of Rare Earths To Japan

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[Market Update] Spot Silver Fell Below $58/ounce, Down 0.47% On The Day

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Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara: Will Continue To Work Closely With USA With Heightening Regional Tension In Mind

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Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara: Japan Will Decide On Its Own What Is Appropriate For Its Defence Spending

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Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara: Ratio Of Defence Spending Versus GDP Is Not The Important Issue

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Taiwan Overnight Interbank Rate Opens At 0.805 Percent (Versus 0.805 Percent At Previous Session Open)

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USGS - Magnitude 5.8 Earthquake Strikes Yakutat, Alaska Region

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Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara: Very Important To Get Understanding Of Other Countries, Including USA, Over Japan's Stance

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[JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says Europe Has Big Problems And Internal Divisions Will Be A Major Challenge] JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon Stated That European Bureaucracy Is Inefficient And Warned That A Weak European Continent Poses A Significant Economic Risk To The United States. Europe Has Big Problems. They've Done A Very Good Job With Social Security. But They've Also Driven Away Businesses, Investment, And Innovation. This Situation Is Gradually Improving. He Praised Some European Leaders, Saying They Are Aware Of These Problems, But He Also Cautioned That Politics Is "really Difficult."

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Thai Army Spokesman Says Military Launched Air Strikes In Disputed Border Area With Cambodia

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Bank Of Japan - Japan Nov Outstanding Bank Loans +4.2% Year-On-Year

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          What Are Circuit Breakers In The Stock Market?

          FXOpen

          Stocks

          Economic

          Forex

          Summary:

          The stock market can experience sudden and extreme price movements due to various factors, including economic events, geopolitical tensions, and investor sentiment.

          The stock market can experience sudden and extreme price movements due to various factors, including economic events, geopolitical tensions, and investor sentiment. To prevent excessive volatility and maintain market stability, regulatory bodies have implemented mechanisms known as circuit breakers. These measures temporarily halt trading when prices move beyond predetermined thresholds, giving investors time to reassess their decisions and preventing panic-driven sell-offs. In this article, we explore the meaning of circuit breakers, their mechanism, and how they could affect your trading.

          What Is a Circuit Breaker in the Share Market?

          Circuit breakers are regulatory mechanisms designed to temporarily halt trading on an exchange to prevent extreme volatility and panic selling. These measures were introduced following the 1987 stock market crash, also known as "Black Monday," to protect market stability and allow investors to reassess their positions during periods of excessive price fluctuations.

          Circuit breakers apply to both individual stocks and entire stock indices, such as the S&P 500. They are triggered when prices move beyond predefined percentage thresholds within a given timeframe, pausing trading for a specified duration to provide a cooling-off period. This pause allows market participants to digest information, reassess their positions, and reduce the likelihood of impulsive or panic-driven trades.Circuit breakers are implemented in many stock exchanges; therefore, they can have different names and be based on different conditions.

          In the US, for example, stock exchanges implement market-wide circuit breakers (MWCB), which are triggered based on percentage declines in the S&P 500 index, compared to the previous day's closing price. A decline to and below the specific threshold causes cross-market halts.

          ● Level 1: A 7% drop in the S&P 500 results in a 15-minute trading halt if it happens before 3:25 p.m. ET. However, if the decline occurs at or after 3:25 p.m. ET, trading continues without interruption.
          ● Level 2: A 13% decline triggers another 15-minute halt if it takes place before 3:25 p.m. ET. If the drop happens at or after 3:25 p.m. ET, market-wide trading remains unaffected.
          ● Level 3: A 20% decline results in the suspension of trading for the remainder of the day regardless of the time when the decline occurs.

          There is another mechanism called the Limit Up-Limit Down (LULD). It is designed to prevent individual stocks from experiencing extreme price swings in short periods. This system sets price bands based on the average stock price over the preceding five minutes, limiting how much a stock can rise or fall. If a stock's price moves outside the established range and doesn’t recover within 15 seconds, trading is paused for five minutes to stabilize price movements and prevent excessive volatility.

          How Circuit Breaker Rules Are Determined

          Stock exchanges set circuit breakers based on a stock’s volatility, liquidity, and past trading behaviour. More volatile or thinly traded shares usually have tighter limits, while highly liquid, large-caps may have wider bands. Exchanges periodically review and adjust these limits based on recent price movements and trading activity.

          Some stocks have dynamic price bands, where circuit limits expand if a stock consistently trades near its upper or lower band. This prevents artificial price freezes and allows for better price discovery. Moreover, not all stocks have limits. Certain highly liquid derivatives and index-heavy shares may have no intraday price restrictions, as their deep order books naturally absorb volatility.Traders monitor circuit limits closely since stocks hitting these thresholds often indicate strong momentum or panic-driven moves.

          The Mechanism of Stock Market Circuit Breakers

          When a stock touches circuit breakers, trading doesn't continue as usual.

          If a stock reaches its upper band, buy orders often flood in, but sellers become scarce—most holders aren’t keen to part with their shares when prices spike suddenly. This creates an imbalance with lots of demand but very little supply. The exchange then temporarily halts trading or moves into a brief cooling-off period. During this pause, traders can reassess their positions, and new orders might line up, helping the exchange determine the appropriate price once trading resumes.

          Conversely, when a stock hits its lower band, panic selling typically dominates, causing a sharp price drop. Buyers vanish as traders hold back, wary of further declines. Just like in the previous scenario, trading usually stops temporarily. Without buyers stepping in, traders can find themselves stuck with shares they're keen to offload but can't because of the halt.

          Trading halts triggered by circuit hits can last from a few minutes to several hours, depending on exchange rules and how severe the price swings are. Sometimes, exchanges extend these halts repeatedly if imbalances persist, causing prolonged trading freezes. In some cases, limits are relaxed progressively, allowing trading to restart gradually and prices to stabilise through natural market forces.

          How Circuit Breakers May Impact Traders and CFD Positions

          Circuit breakers play a crucial role in shaping market conditions, affecting both stock investors and those trading derivatives, e.g. Contracts for Difference (CFDs). These price bands influence liquidity, risk exposure, and sentiment, making them key considerations for anyone dealing with price movements, whether in the underlying stock or through leveraged instruments like CFDs.

          Liquidity Constraints and Order Execution

          When a stock hits its upper band, sellers may disappear, leaving buy orders unfilled. Conversely, at a lower band, buyers vanish, creating a backlog of sell orders. For stock traders, this means difficulty executing trades at desired prices. For CFD traders, liquidity issues can be even more pronounced—since CFDs track the underlying stock, brokers may restrict trading or widen spreads when circuit limits are hit. If trading is paused, CFD positions can become temporarily untradeable, increasing exposure to further market swings.

          Gaps, Slippage, and Trade Execution Risks

          Since CFDs often involve leverage, even small price differences can have outsized effects. If a stock is locked at a circuit limit for an extended period, the next available price when trading resumes can be significantly different from where it halted. This creates gaps, causing slippage—where orders execute at a worse price than expected. In extreme cases, stop-loss orders might not trigger until after a major price movement, leading to larger-than-anticipated losses.

          Volatility and Risk Management Challenges

          Circuit limits help prevent excessive volatility, but they don’t remove risk. A stock that repeatedly hits its limit can leave traders unable to exit, leading to prolonged exposure. CFD traders face additional challenges, as margin calls can occur when positions move against them, potentially triggering forced liquidations once trading reopens.

          Stocks consistently hitting circuit breakers often indicate extreme sentiment—either speculative interest or panic-driven selling. Traders analyse whether price moves are supported by high volume or driven by short-term speculation. If a stock is reaching its limits on low liquidity, the move may be unsustainable. Understanding these dynamics may help traders assess whether momentum is genuine or artificially fuelled.

          Real-World Examples of Stock Market Circuit Breakers

          Circuit breakers aren’t just theoretical—they’ve been triggered during some of the most dramatic market moves in history.

          The 2020 Market Crash

          In March 2020, as COVID-19 fears sent global markets into freefall, the S&P 500 hit its Level 1 circuit breaker (7% drop) multiple times, triggering 15-minute trading halts. On 9th, 12th, 16th, and 18th March, panic selling caused these automatic pauses as investors rushed to offload assets amid uncertainty. Despite these measures, the market continued declining, proving that circuit breakers can slow momentum but don’t necessarily reverse sentiment.

          GameStop (GME) and the 2021 Short Squeeze

          During the GameStop short squeeze in early 2021, GME hit the limit up multiple times as retail traders fuelled an unprecedented rally. Trading halts were repeatedly triggered as GME soared from $20 to over $400 in weeks. However, when momentum reversed, limits down kicked in, with the stock plunging over 60% in a single session. This showed how circuit breakers can amplify volatility, trapping traders on both sides of extreme moves.

          2009 Indian General Elections

          On 18th May 2009, the Sensex surged by 17.24% and the Nifty 50 jumped 17.33%, triggering the upper circuit twice in a single day. Trading was halted for two hours at 9:55 AM, and when the market reopened at 11:55 AM, another surge led to a second halt for the rest of the day. The surge occurred the day after the results of the 2009 Indian general elections, where the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) secured a decisive victory.

          Risks of Circuit Breakers

          While circuit limits may help regulate extreme price swings, they also introduce risks that traders need to consider. These restrictions can affect liquidity, execution, and market behaviour, sometimes leading to unintended consequences.

          ● Liquidity Traps: When a stock hits a limit up, buyers may struggle to enter as sellers disappear. At the lower band, traders trying to exit may be stuck with unfilled sell orders, leading to prolonged exposure.
          ● Price Distortions: Circuit limits can temporarily freeze a stock’s price, delaying price discovery. When trading resumes, sharp adjustments can occur, making it difficult to gauge fair value.
          ● Forced Liquidations: For CFD traders using leverage, limits can trigger margin calls. If a position moves against them while trading is paused, forced liquidations may happen at unfavourable prices.
          ● Speculative Extremes: Stocks frequently hitting limits can attract speculative trading, leading to inflated prices or panic-driven collapses unrelated to fundamentals.

          FAQ

          What Is a Circuit Breaker in Trading?

          A circuit breaker in trading is a regulatory mechanism that temporarily halts trading in a stock or an entire market when prices move beyond a predefined percentage in a short period. This is designed to prevent panic selling or excessive speculation, allowing traders to reassess market conditions. Circuit breakers can apply at the index level (e.g., Nifty 50, S&P 500) or individual stocks.

          What Is the Difference Between a Circuit Breaker and a Trading Halt?

          A circuit breaker is a rule-based mechanism that automatically halts trading when the market or a stock moves significantly in a short time. It can trigger at different levels (e.g., 5%, 10%, 20%).A trading halt is a temporary suspension of trading imposed by exchanges or regulators due to specific events such as major announcements, news affecting a company, or regulatory concerns.Circuit breakers are predefined and automatic, while trading halts can be discretionary and event-driven.


          Source: FXOpen

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum

          Warren Takunda

          Cryptocurrency

          Key points:
          Bitcoin price momentum weakness is leading to lower targets, with Wyckoff analysis warning that $100,000 support may fail.
          The push to $122,000 currently looks “ugly” thanks to a rejection on daily time frames.
          Attention continues to focus on the CME gap near $117,500.
          Bitcoin risks breaking its bull run early as a sub-$100,000 BTC price target emerges.
          The latest market analysis from traders, including ZAYK Charts, published on Tuesday, warns of an ongoing “distribution phase” for Bitcoin.

          BTC price Wyckoff schematic eyes “$95,000 zone”

          Bitcoin is not immune to losing $100,000 support, with the price struggling to hold ground above old all-time highs from earlier in 2025.
          ZAYK Charts said that the door is open to $95,000, a level not seen since early May.
          Using the Wyckoff method, ZAYK Charts argued that BTC/USDT has already enjoyed the classic “mark up” rebound phase from long-term lows, and has now entered “distribution,” the area where an uptrend traditionally reverses.
          “After a strong Accumulation Phase in March–April confirmed by bullish RSI divergence, BTC entered a powerful Mark-Up phase, reaching new highs,” an X post said.
          “Currently, price action is showing signs of a Distribution Phase — sideways movement with weakening momentum, supported by bearish RSI divergence. If distribution confirms, the next phase could be a Mark-Down, with a potential drop toward the 95K zone.”Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum_1

          BTC/USDT with Wyckoff analysis. Source: ZAYK Charts/X

          The area between $92,000 and $95,000 has featured prominently in BTC price action since last November, acting as both support and resistance as the market experienced significant swings.
          Continuing, fellow trader Mikybull Crypto described this week’s push beyond $122,000, which ended in rejection, as “ugly.”
          BTC/USD, he told X followers, had reentered its previous range, with the main beneficiaries being altcoins.Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum_2

          CME gap looms ahead of US CPI report

          Other market takes were less categorical, with trader Daan Crypto Trades among those focusing on the nearby gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures.
          “$BTC Retesting the trend line it broke out of before. The 4H 200MA/EMA are coming in right below,” he wrote on X Tuesday, referring to the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages on four-hour time frames.
          “But keep in mind that we do still have the CME gap which sits at around $117K. This would have some decent confluence with the 4H 200MA (Purple) and a wick into that region would make me look more closely for fresh longs on strong alts.”Bitcoin’s $95K Target in Sight as ‘Ugly’ Price Candle Halts Breakout Momentum_3

          BTC/USDT perpetual swaps four-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

          Expectations for volatility were already high ahead of key US macroeconomic data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for July due on the day.
          As Cointelegraph reported, market participants see any outlying result as having an immediate impact on crypto and risk assets.

          Source: Cointelegraph

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Oil News: WTI Straddles 200-Day MA as U.S.–China Tariff Truce Lifts Mood

          Adam

          Commodity

          WTI Inches Higher but Still Boxed In by Key Levels

          Oil News: WTI Straddles 200-Day MA as U.S.–China Tariff Truce Lifts Mood_1Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

          Light crude oil futures are nudging higher this morning, but let’s be honest — we’re still in the same holding pattern we’ve been in for days. Prices are camped just above last week’s $62.77 low and that June 24 bottom at $62.69, while straddling the 200-day moving average at $64.08. That line has been calling the shots for the longer-term trend, and I think most traders are watching it closely.
          At 10:48 GMT, Light Crude Oil futures are trading $64.01, up $0.05 or +0.08%.
          On the topside, there’s a bit of a gauntlet to run — the long-term 50% retracement at $65.38 and the 50-day moving average at $65.60. And if we’re talking short-term charts, the $66.64 pivot from the $70.51–$62.77 range is the real swing point. Take that out with conviction, and it doesn’t take much imagination to see this market pop a couple of bucks in a hurry.

          Tariff Truce Gives Oil a Breather

          Part of the calm here comes from the U.S.–China tariff extension. President Trump’s decision to push the pause button until November 10 took some weight off the market’s shoulders. Triple-digit duties on Chinese goods would have been a body blow to global growth and, by extension, fuel demand. Now traders have a little breathing room — though whether this is a path to an actual agreement or just kicking the can down the road remains to be seen.

          Rate Cut Bets Add Support

          The other quiet boost comes from softer U.S. labor data, which has traders leaning harder toward a September Federal Reserve rate cut. That kind of move tends to pull the dollar lower, lift equities, and, more often than not, perk up oil demand. We’ve also got U.S. inflation data due later today — if it comes in cooler, the rate-cut crowd gets even louder. That being said, I don’t think crude is going to break out on this alone unless the chart levels start to give way.

          Geopolitics Could Flip the Script Fast

          Traders can’t ignore Friday’s planned Alaska sit-down between Trump and Putin. The Ukraine war headline risk is still huge — a peace push could ease sanctions pressure, while a breakdown might mean tougher penalties on Russian oil buyers like China and India. Commerzbank’s already warning that if Friday doesn’t bring progress, secondary sanctions could expand. That’s the sort of thing that can spike or sink prices overnight, no matter what the charts are saying.

          Outlook: More Likely Than Not, We Stay Range-Bound — For Now

          More likely than not, we keep grinding sideways between $62.70 and $66.60 until one of these geopolitical or economic triggers hits. Buyers seem comfortable defending dips toward $63, but the market hasn’t shown it’s got the strength to break $66.64 yet. I’d still look at pullbacks as potential buying opportunities — but we’ll see how that plays out if Friday’s meeting throws a curveball.

          Source: fxempire

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          USD CHF Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US CPI data

          Adam

          Forex

          Fundamental Overview

          The USD has been weak almost across the board since the NFP report as the softer than expected data triggered a quick dovish repricing and a change in stance for many Fed members.
          The market is pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end compared to just 35 bps before the NFP release. It’s highly likely that more benign data will see Fed Chair Powell opening the door for a cut in September at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
          The focus now turned to the US CPI report. We saw some dollar strength yesterday which could have been hedging activity into the risk event. The recent Fedspeak suggests that a rate cut in September might be unavoidable, so we might need very hot inflation data to change their mind (and of course a good NFP report in September).
          On the CHF side, we haven’t got anything new in terms of monetary policy as the SNB is now in a long pause. The latest Swiss CPI showed a slight improvement in inflation although it’s not important as the central bank will not hike rates for a long time. The market doesn’t expect the SNB to cut anymore.
          There’s some focus at the moment on the 39% tariffs that the US slapped on Switzerland. That is likely to be resolved in the near future with the rate being set between 10-20% as we’ve seen for most other countries.

          USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

          USD CHF Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US CPI data_1USDCHF Daily

          On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF is trading above the key support zone around the 0.8050 level and the major trendline. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep targeting the 0.84 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new cycle lows.
          USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

          USD CHF Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US CPI data_2USDCHF 4 hour

          On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish structure on this timeframe. The trendline is near the support zone, so that area is going to be key for traders. Buyers will look for a bounce, while the sellers will look for a break.
          USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

          USD CHF Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US CPI data_3USDCHF 1 hour

          On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 0.8090 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally into the 0.84 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
          It’s worth noting that we have the US CPI report today so the technicals might not mean much and it would be better to trade after the release.

          Upcoming Catalysts

          Today we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Focus also on Fedspeak, especially after the US CPI data.

          Source: investinglive

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Schmid Says Fed's Policy Rate Should Stay On Hold For Now

          Daniel Carter

          Central Bank

          Economic

          The U.S. central bank should not take tariffs' muted effect on inflation so far as an opportunity to cut interest rates, but rather as a sign that monetary policy is "appropriately calibrated," Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid said on Tuesday, in remarks that contrast with the increasingly dovish tone of some of his colleagues.
          "With the economy still showing momentum, growing business optimism, and inflation still stuck above our objective, retaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance remains appropriate for the time being," Schmid said in remarks prepared for delivery to an economic development conference in Oklahoma. "While increased tariffs seem to be having a limited effect on inflation, I view this as a rationale for keeping policy on hold rather than an opportunity to ease the stance of policy."
          Schmid said his "patient approach" to changing the policy rate, currently in the 4.25%-4.50% range, shouldn't be seen as a "wait and see" approach because he does not think that it will be clear in the next few months whether tariffs are pushing up on prices temporarily or persistently.
          Rather, he said, he feels the current policy rate is not very far above the neutral rate, where activity is neither stimulated nor restrained, and the labor market is still looking solid despite a sharp drop in job growth in recent months.
          And while the cooling labor market is keeping a lid on the pass-through of tariffs into inflation, boosting demand aggressively could raise the risk of an outsized increase in price pressures, Schmid said.
          "In my view, and in discussion with my contacts, growth remains solid, inflation remains too high, and therefore policy should remain modestly restrictive," he said. "That said, as I stated earlier, inflation is determined by the balance of supply and demand, and if I see indications that demand growth is weakening significantly, I will adjust my views accordingly."

          Source: Kitco

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Fed’s Schmid Says Policy Stance Still Appropriate For Time Being

          Damon

          Central Bank

          Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid said he favors keeping interest rates on hold for the time being to prevent robust economic activity from adding to inflation pressures.

          “With the economy still showing momentum, growing business optimism, and inflation still stuck above our objective, retaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance remains appropriate for the time being,” Schmid said Tuesday in remarks prepared for an event in Oklahoma City.

          He added that he’s ready to change his views if demand growth starts “weakening significantly.”

          Fed officials have left interest rates on hold at each of their five meetings this year as they waited to see how tariffs and other policies would impact the economy. With the latest data showing a sharp slowdown in hiring and relatively muted inflation, investors are pricing in a quarter-point rate cut at the next policy meeting in September.

          Schmid, who votes on monetary policy decisions this year, said the current environment of moderate demand growth and a cooling labor market is helping temper the pass—through of tariffs to inflation, and that the Fed has a key role to play in that.

          “The Fed cannot offset the effect of higher tariffs on prices, but what the Fed can do is monitor demand growth, provide space for the economy to adjust and keep inflation on a path to 2%,” Schmid said. “Overall, I am anticipating a relatively muted effect of tariffs on inflation, but I view that as a sign that policy is appropriately calibrated rather than a sign that the policy rate should be cut.”

          A report released earlier Tuesday showed the consumer price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% in July from a month earlier. While that marked an acceleration, the data suggested the impact of tariffs on goods prices was more modest than in June.

          Source: Bloomberg Europe

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Which Data Point May Shine Light Through US Jobs Fog?

          Winkelmann

          Economic

          Political

          Amid a blizzard of contradictory signals, it's becoming increasingly difficult to get any visibility on the U.S. labor market. But of all the numbers that feed into the all-important unemployment rate, the one worth paying most attention to may be continuing weekly jobless claims.

          Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said that while he and his colleagues look at the "totality" of the data, the best gauge of the health of the labor market is the unemployment rate. That's currently 4.2%, low by historical standards, and consistent with an economy operating at full employment.

          But it is a lagging indicator, meaning that once it starts to rise sharply, the economy will probably already be in a very precarious position. And it is also being depressed by labor demand and supply factors unique to the U.S.'s current high tariff, low immigration era.

          LOW FIRE, LOW HIRE

          Economic growth is slowing. Broadly speaking, it is running at an annual rate of just over 1%, half the pace seen in the last few years. Unsurprisingly, firms' hiring is slowing too.The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed hiring in June was the weakest in a year, while July's nonfarm payrolls report and previous months' revisions were so disappointing that President Donald Trump fired the head of the agency responsible for collecting the data.

          But the unemployment rate isn't rising, largely because firms aren't firing workers. Why? Perhaps because they are banking on tariff and inflation uncertainty lifting in the second half of the year. It's also possible that firms are still scared form the post-pandemic labor shortages.Whatever the reason, the pace of layoffs simply has not picked up, the monthly JOLTS surveys show. Layoffs in June totaled 1.6 million, below the averages of the last one, two and three years.Meanwhile, lower immigration, increased deportations, and fewer people re-entering the labor force are offsetting weak hiring, thus keeping a lid on the unemployment rate. The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022.

          And what about weekly jobless claims, another key variable in the labor market picture? In previous slowdowns, rising layoffs would be reflected in a spike in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time.That's not happening either. Last week's 226,000 initial claims were right at the average for the past year, and only a few thousand higher than the averages over the past two and three years."It's a low fire, low hire economy," notes Oscar Munoz, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities.

          U.S. continuing claims highest since Nov 2021

          REGULAR CHECK-UP

          One high-frequency number that has gone under the radar, but which merits more attention is continuing jobless claims, which measures the number of workers continuing to file for unemployment benefits after losing their jobs. Rising continued claims suggest people actively looking for a job are struggling to get one, a sign that the labor market could be softening.

          That figure spiked last week to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, which in theory should put upward pressure on the unemployment rate.Using the 'stock' versus 'flow' analogy, continuing claims are the 'stock,' and weekly claims are the 'flow'. Everyone will have their own view on what's more important, but right now initial claims are offering no guidance while continuing claims are pointing to softening in the job market.

          Fed officials are on alert, but what would move them to cut rates?

          Munoz and his colleagues at TD Securities estimate that continuing claims of around 2.2 million would be consistent with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, a level of joblessness most economists agree would prompt the Fed to trim rates.That's also the year-end unemployment rate in the Fed's last economic projections from June, a set of forecasts which also penciled in 50 bps of easing by December.An unemployment rate of 4.4% would probably tip the balance on the Federal Open Market Committee, while 4.3% would make it a much closer call, perhaps a coin toss.

          Further muddying the picture, other indicators suggest the labor market is ticking along nicely. July's payrolls report showed that average hourly earnings last month rose at a 3.9% annual rate, consistent with the level seen in the past year. And the average number of hours worked was 34.3 hours, right at the mean for the past two years.These numbers and the JOLTS data are released monthly, and there will be one more of each before the Fed's September 16-17 policy meeting.But if the increased focus on the unemployment rate means investors want a more regular labor market temperature check, they should keep a close eye on weekly continuing claims.

          Source: TradingView

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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