US July Housing Starts: Fall to Lowest Level Since May 2020 Due to Weaker Demand

Data Interpretation

Summary:

Affected by a decline in single-family units and weaker demand, US housing starts in July were only 1,238,000 units, down 6.8 percent from June and well below market expectations of 1,330,000 units. It dropped to the lowest level since May 2020 in the early days of the pandemic.

On August 16 local time, the US Census Bureau released the monthly new residential construction data for July:

Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,238,000, compared to the expected 1,330,000 and the previous month's revised 1,329,000.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,396,000, while the expected number was 1,429,000 and the previous month's reading was 1,446,000.

New housing starts totaled 1,238,000 in July, down 6.8 percent from June to the lowest level since May 2020, driven by fewer single-family units and weaker demand. Of those, single-family housing starts fell to 851,000, down 14.1 percent from the revised June figure, marking the largest decline since April 2020. Multifamily housing starts, on the other hand, rose to 387,000. The decline was particularly notable in the South region, which may be related to the impact of Hurricane Beryl. Meanwhile, building permits, a predictor of future housing starts, also fell by 4 percent to 1,396,000 units.

The latest survey shows that in August, the US homebuilder confidence declined for the fourth consecutive month. Builders are facing rising interest rates, labor shortages, higher construction material prices, and other issues. At the same time, high mortgage rates and home prices discourage buyers, causing housing inventories to reach the highest level since 2008, and prompting homebuilders to scale back construction. Housing demand appears particularly fragile.

However, Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist, said that good inflation data suggests the Fed could take a rate cut as early as September and that rates are expected to moderate in the coming months. This will help homebuyers and builders who are facing tight loan conditions now, hopefully boosting demand for homes.

US Housing Starts in July

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Owen Li

Energy

China's production of coal is rising while its share of electricity generation is declining, a seeming contradiction that will likely result in lower imports volumes and cheaper prices.

Coal output rose 2.8% in July from the same month a year earlier, hitting 390.37 million metric tons, according to data released on Aug. 15 by the National Bureau of Statistics.

July's output was down from June's 405.38 million tons, which was the strongest month so far this year. July was also the third-highest monthly production so far in 2024 and output has been trending higher since April.

The rising availability of coal in the world's biggest producer, importer and consumer of the fuel hasn't translated into an increased share of the total electricity generation, the primary use for the fuel.

Instead, China's coal-fired power is losing market share to cleaner alternatives, a trend likely to continue, given the ongoing rapid installation of solar, and to a lesser extent, wind capacity.

China's thermal power generation dropped in July for a third month on a year-earlier basis, despite rising overall power consumption.

Thermal power output, which is largely coal-fired with only a small amount of natural gas generation, fell 4.9% in July from the same month in 2023 to 574.9 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh).

Total generation rose 2.5% to 883.1 billion kWh, with hydropower output jumping 36.2% to 166.4 billion kWh.

China is experiencing a hotter than usual summer, which has boosted electricity demand for cooling.

Hydropower is increasing off a low base in 2023, when output was affected by low rainfall.

Other clean energy generation is also grabbing a higher share, with solar up 16.4% in July and nuclear increasing 4.3%.

China has ramped up installations of renewable energy, with 102 gigawatts (GW) of capacity being added in the first half of 2024, taking total capacity to more than 700 GW.

About 26 GW of wind capacity was added in the first six months of 2024, with the combined wind and solar additions being almost seven times the 18.3 GW of new coal-fired generation.

Market Dynamics

The recovery in hydropower and the rapid rollout of solar, coupled with rising coal production, are likely to alter the dynamics of the thermal coal market in China.

Domestic prices have started to decline, with the benchmark price of thermal coal at Quinhuangdao, as assessed by consultants SteelHome, slipping to end at 835 yuan ($116.55) a ton on Aug. 16.

It has trended lower since its most recent peak of 885 yuan a ton on May 28, and has dropped 11.2% since the peak so far in 2024 of 940 yuan on Feb. 27.

The lower domestic price has meant that thermal coal imported from Indonesia and Australia, the world's two biggest exporters of the fuel and the top suppliers to China, has also had to adjust through lower prices.

Indonesian coal with an energy content of 4,200 kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg), as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, ended at $51.18 a ton in the week to Aug. 16.

This was the lowest in 11 months and the price has dropped 12% since its high so far this year of $58.17 a ton in the week to March 8.

Australian coal with an energy content of 5,500 kcal/kg finished at $86.78 a ton in the seven days to Aug. 16, down 10.2% from its peak so far in 2024 of $96.66 in the week to March 1.

The softer seaborne coal prices have helped keep import volumes strong so far in 2024, with official data showing imports of all grades of coal rising 13.3% in the first seven months of the year to 295.78 million tons.

But data from commodity analysts Kpler suggests that seaborne imports of thermal coal are starting to ease back.

Kpler assessed July seaborne thermal coal arrivals at 28.56 million tons, down from 29.38 million in June and 30.67 million in May.

For August, it's possible that thermal coal imports will drop for a third month, with Kpler estimating arrivals of 28.26 million tons.

With domestic coal output recovering and prices easing, its likely that seaborne cargoes will have to decline in price to remain competitive.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Although gaining strong growth in export turnover in the first seven months of this year, Vietnam still faces many challenges to maintain the high growth in the export until this year end.

With the gradual recovery of the world market and increase of export orders, trade activities in the first seven months achieved positive results.

The total trade turnover in July exceeded 70 billion USD for the first time, of which exports reached a record of over 36 billion USD, marking the month with the highest export value ever.

In the first seven months, export turnover reached 266.9 billion USD, up 15.7% over the same period last year. Import turnover stood at 212.9 billion USD, up 18.5%.

During those months, there were 10 import items with a value exceeding 5 billion USD, including electronics, computers and components, common metals, phones and components, machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts.

According to the forecast of MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS), exports will grow by 11 % - 12 % in 2024, with a trade surplus of 12-14 billion USD.

This growth is based on the World Bank's forecasts on the global trade in goods and services increasing by 2.5% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. Positive signs of FDI in Vietnam are expected to play an important role in trade activities.

In addition, recent reforms in trade and customs policies have improved the efficiency of import-export management, simplified administrative processes and reduced costs and time for businesses.

Petrovietnam Securities Incorporated (PSI) also noted that consumer confidence is showing signs of recovery. The consumer confidence index on economic conditions in key markets, such as the EU and UK, also recorded slight recovery,

In addition, the number of new orders from the US, Vietnam's key export market, increased, showing more optimism about this market's demand in the future.

Therefore, PSI expects purchasing power in major export markets to recover more strongly in the second half of 2024.

Although the US has not recognised Vietnam as a market economy, PSI still maintains a positive view on Vietnam's export enterprises this year because the US is still Vietnam's largest export market, reported the Doanh nghiep Vietnam (Vietnam businesses) magazine.

Many challenges

However, MBS believed that Vietnam's export growth until this year end will face many challenges, such as a spike in shipping costs due to geopolitical conflicts; and increasing competition from rival exporting countries such as China, Indonesia and Thailand.

Other challenges are negative impacts from the US's prolonged high interest rates on Vietnam's partner countries, leading to a decline in market demand.

Moreover, Vietnam's economy is highly open, so it also is greatly exposed to global economic developments. This brings difficulties for industries with large export turnover such as textiles, wood and electronics.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), although the export market has seen signs of recovery, the export recovery of products is still uneven and unstable.

Vietnam's key export products to such major markets as the EU and the US are facing pressures from trade defence investigations, origin fraud and technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development and green transformation.

The world economic situation still faces many difficulties and challenges, while the slow recovery of global trade, consumption and investment has affected the domestic economy.

Industrial enterprises, especially export ones, continue to face difficulties in expanding and diversifying markets due to high input material costs and compliance costs, especially with new regulations and standards. Lending interest rates are gradually decreasing, but they are still at a high level.

Therefore, the General Statistics Office recommended synchronously and effectively implementing some groups of solutions. Of which, it is necessary to continue to popularise incentives in free trade agreements (FTAs) and maximise market opening opportunities, boost exports and improve the efficiency of exporting Vietnamese goods to markets that have signed FTAs with Vietnam.

The country should continue to innovate trade promotion activities, focusing on digital transformation programmes in the trade promotion activities and connecting supply and demand both home and abroad.

At the same time, it is necessary to improve efficiency in customs clearance for import and export goods at border gates between Vietnam and other countries and promote transition to official exports.

Trade surplus growth in 2025

The industry and trade sector strives to maintain a trade surplus of 15 billion USD in 2025 and gain a growth of 6% in export revenue turnover compared to 2024.

To reach this goal, the MoIT will continue to promote breakthrough strategies and restructure sectors and fields to improve productivity, quality, efficiency and competitiveness.

The ministry will also focus on institutional reform and development of a favourable business environment to support enterprises in restoring production and business, and implementing important projects.

At the same time, negotiation about new FTAs and upgrading of existing ones will be carried out selectively to take full incentives from signed FTAs, aiming at expanding import and export markets and diversifying partners and goods suppliers and minimising dependence on certain markets.

The ministry will also implement preventive measures, improve trade defense capacity and early warning and resolve international trade and investment disputes to protect the legitimate rights of domestic manufacturing industries as well as businesses and people.

It will strongly develop the domestic market and Vietnamese brands, and promote e-commerce.

In addition, trade promotion conferences with Vietnam trade offices abroad will be held regularly with updates on foreign markets and new regulations and standards, making recommendations to localities, business associations and businesses to adjust production plans and find suitable orders.

In particular, the ministry will accelerate the negotiation of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and deploy various trade promotion programmes in both direct and online forms, to take all opportunities from the implemented FTAs.

Source: VNA

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Thomas

Economic

Thailand's economic expansion accelerated in the second quarter due to stronger consumption, tourism and exports but quarterly growth slowed, with the outlook clouded by policy uncertainty following a change in government.

Gross domestic product grew 2.3% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) data showed, versus an upwardly revised 1.6% in the first quarter and beating 2.1% forecast in a Reuters poll.

Growth in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was driven by improved government consumption, export of goods and services as well as private consumption, while public and private investments contracted, the state planning agency NESDC said in a statement.

However, on a quarterly basis, GDP grew a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the second quarter, slower than an upwardly revised 1.2% expansion in the previous three months and 0.9% growth forecast in the poll.

"We expect it to decelerate a bit further in the coming quarters as the boost from tourism fades and with uncertainty around fiscal policy now elevated," Capital Economics said in a note, predicting interest rate cuts from October.

The central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at a decade-high of 2.50% for a fourth straight meeting in June, and is expected to hold the rate again when it meets on Aug. 21.

The NESDC now expects GDP growth of between 2.3% and 2.8% this year, narrowing from its previous forecast range of 2.0% to 3.0%. The economy grew 1.9% last year.

Thailand's economy has lagged regional peers as it faces high household debt and borrowing costs as well as sluggish exports amid a slowdown in top trading partner China.

The outlook is further clouded by political turmoil after last week's court order removed former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin for violating the constitution over a cabinet appointment.

Political neophyte Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of divisive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was endorsed as prime minister on Sunday but has yet to form a cabinet.

Paetongtarn, who has not served in government previously, faces challenges, with the economy floundering and the popularity of her Pheu Thai party dwindling, having yet to deliver on its flagship 'digital wallet' cash handout programme worth 500 billion baht ($14.5 billion).

The government needs to introduce stimulus measures, NESDC head Danucha Pichayanan told a press conference.

"Stimulating the economy through consumption will help support the economy and solve people's livelihood problems," he said.

The planning agency maintained its export growth forecast at 2% for this year.

The economy has been supported by tourism, and the agency still expects 36.5 million foreign tourists this year. There were a record of nearly 40 million foreign tourists in 2019, before the pandemic.

($1 = 34.43 baht)

Source: Reuters

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

Central Bank

Political

[Quick Facts]

1. Global bond traders are increasing positions in case inflation spikes.

2. "Harrisonomics": A strong middle class makes America strong.

3. Wall Street bets Powell will confirm a rate cut.

4. Fed's Daly: Monetary policy and economic mismatch will lead to unintended consequences.

5. Israel and Hamas remain divided on key cease-fire issues.

6. U.S. consumer confidence remains stable, presidential election in focus.

[News Details]

Global bond traders are increasing positions in case inflation spikes

As bond traders grow increasingly confident that inflation is finally under control, a group of investors is quietly building defensive positions to guard against a potential surge in inflation. These fund managers are increasing positions to cushion fixed-income returns in the event of an inflation shock. Wall Street strategists also recommend taking advantage of the decline in market-based future inflation indicators to build defensive positions.

With rate cuts now seeming inevitable, and recession concerns overtaking inflation as the main worry. Some investors say this hopeful outlook has driven benchmark bond yields sharply lower, though some believe the drop might be too steep. "We think fear of recession is overdone, but that inflation risks are possibly underpriced at current yield levels," said John Bilton, head of multi-asset strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Bilton said he remains "broadly neutral" on duration, or exposure to interest-rate risk, given that there are "a handful of forces that could push inflation higher."

"Harrisonomics": A strong middle class makes America strong

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris recently outlined proposals as part of her "Opportunity Economy" plan, which she intends to implement if she wins the White House. These include tax cuts for most Americans, banning price gouging at grocery stores, and building more affordable housing. In her first major economic-themed speech as the Democratic presidential nominee, Harris promised a new child tax credit of up to $6,000 for families with young children, tax cuts for families with kids, and lower prescription drug costs.

Harris also called for the construction of 3 million new homes over the next four years and proposed tax incentives for home builders who construct homes for first-time buyers. Speaking to supporters at a rally in North Carolina, Harris said that the U.S. economy is strong, but prices are still too high. She pledged that if elected president, she would focus on the middle class, stating, "I firmly believe that when the middle class is strong, America is strong."

Wall Street bets Powell will confirm a rate cut

Wall Street is betting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will confirm an upcoming rate cut at the Jackson Hole Symposium. However, as the focus shifts from "whether there will be a rate cut" to "how big the cut will be," stock traders might be disappointed. "If traders hear about an imminent rate cut, the stock market will react positively. If they don't hear the desired information, it could trigger a massive sell-off," said Eric Beiley, Managing Director at Steward Partners Global Advisory.

The market is fully expecting the Fed to start cutting rates at the September meeting. But Powell may still stay tight-lipped about the timing of the cuts in his Friday speech. Given his cautious stance, he may reveal the Fed's path forward in a careful and ambiguous manner, especially regarding how much rates might drop. If Powell does not say this is the future path, it could be a major surprise.

Fed's Daly: Monetary policy and economic mismatch will lead to unintended consequences

FOMC voting member Mary Daly said that the Fed does not want to "over-tighten monetary policy when the economy is slowing down." She added that failing to adjust policy to the progress of inflation and the slowing economy "could lead to unintended consequences, such as stable prices but an unstable and shaky labor market."

Her comments align with the views of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who recently said that waiting too long to cut rates "certainly carries risks." The weak jobs report in July raised concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and contributed to a sell-off in global markets. Daly noted that companies typically do not resort to layoffs. Instead, they are now cutting discretionary spending to adapt to a world that is no longer a bubble of unchecked growth.

Israel and Hamas remain divided on key cease-fire issues

On August 16, a new round of ceasefire talks for the Gaza Strip continued in Doha, Qatar. Qatar, Egypt, and the United States issued a joint statement saying that the past two days of talks were constructive. Negotiations will continue in Cairo next week, with hopes of reaching an agreement then.

There are still disagreements over the Israeli military's control of the Netzarim Corridor and the Philadelphi Corridor within the Gaza Strip, an Israeli official involved in the talks revealed to Israeli media on August 16. Meanwhile, a Hamas official told the media that the transitional proposal submitted by the mediators did not align with the Gaza ceasefire agreement that Hamas agreed to in early July. On August 16, AFP cited an anonymous Hamas source saying that Hamas would not accept the new conditions proposed by Israel.

U.S. consumer confidence remains stable, presidential election in focus

The University Of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 67.8 in August. The one-year-ahead inflation expectations stood at 2.9%, and the reading of five-year-ahead expectations was 3%. The index has remained nearly flat for the fourth consecutive month, with just a slight increase of 1.4 points, according to Joanne Hsu, director of UMich's consumer surveys. Expectations strengthened for both personal finances and the five-year economic outlook, which reached its highest reading in four months. The survey shows that 41% of consumers believe that Harris is the better candidate for the economy, while 38% chose Trump. Consumer expectations are subject to change as the presidential campaign comes into greater focus.

[Today's Focus]

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TD Securities

Economic

The July report for the Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation fell below 3% for the first time since March 2021.U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations in July, rising 1.0% month-on-month.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during the Jackson Hole Symposium will headline the week.

Bad news for Canada’s international trade last week, as the U.S. hiked softwood lumber duties and Canada’s two major rail lines halted shipments of certain goods ahead of a potential lockout.Housing activity took a breather in July after a strong showing in June. Still, the soft patch will likely prove to be temporary amid falling interest rates and a resilient economy.The marquee event on this week’s data calendar is the July inflation report. We expect core inflation to have eased, leaving the door wide open for a September rate cut.

U.S. – Inching Towards a Pivot

A relative state of calm presided over financial markets last week as incoming economic data continued to support the case for the first Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Inflation data for July showed that the annual change in prices fell below 3% for the first time since March 2021, while retail sales for the month came in above expectations.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July showed that inflation picked up slightly relative to June in monthly terms, primarily driven by an uptick in shelter costs. However, the monthly increase in headline and core inflation was still below the level consistent with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. As a result, the 3-month annualized percentage change in core CPI fell to its lowest level since early 2021 (Chart 1). While the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, sat at 2.6% in June, momentum in CPI inflation continues to indicate that inflation pressures will likely ease further moving forward.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Inching Towards a Pivot_1

This was also evidenced by the Producer Price Index (PPI) report released last week, which showed that upstream production costs decelerated in July. Annual growth in producer prices had been rising through the first half of the year, which contributed to the slowing in the disinflation progress as these costs were likely passed on to consumers. Therefore, the reversal in this trend in July, especially if sustained, would likely provide further relief to consumer price growth moving forward. Taken together the trends in the July reports for PPI and CPI inflation support the case for the Federal Reserve to begin to gradually reduce interest rates at their next meeting in September.

Fortunately, the moderation in price growth seen recently has not required a decline in consumer demand. As indicated by July retail sales, spending rose more than expected to start the second half of the year. This was in part driven by a rebound in auto sales after a cyber attack against a dealership software firm depressed sales in June. Still, sales in the ‘control group’, which excludes the more volatile spending categories, remained healthy in July (Chart 2). The economy has exited a period of exceptionally strong demand and maintained stable momentum, but the Federal Reserve will be cognizant of the balance of risks moving forward.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Inching Towards a Pivot_2

In the leadup to the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium this week, the slate of Fed speakers was relatively light. Governor Bowman, who is the only voting member of the FOMC who spoke this week, noted that upside risks to inflation remain and that caution would be warranted in considering future policy adjustments. Fed Presidents Bostic (Atlanta) and Musalem (St. Louis) broadly echoed these concerns, although both noted that interest rates would likely be lower in the second half of the year. Financial markets pared back their expectations for an outsized 50 basis-point (bps) cut in September this week, converging closer to our expectation for a 25bps cut, while they await further guidance from Chair Powell’s remarks scheduled for next Friday.

Canada – Housing Data Caps Eventful Week

Last week’s data calendar was somewhat limited, but bad news for Canada on softwood lumber and rail shipments is likely to impact the international trade picture. Financial markets largely took their cues from developments south of the border, as a pair of generally soft U.S. inflation reports reinforced that Fed rate cuts were coming. This sentiment kept yields lower in the U.S. and Canada. Meanwhile, solid U.S. retail spending and labour market data injected some optimism about the economy, lifting equities in both countries.

Softwood lumber was back in the headlines. In the latest salvo in a longstanding dispute, the United States hiked its duty on Canadian softwood lumber entering its borders to 14.54% from 8.05%. This change will mark the first increase in some time, although is unlikely to meaningfully swing the overall export outlook given that lumber accounts for less than 2% of total Canadian international merchandise exports. Still, B.C. and New Brunswick (where lumber makes up a higher share of total exports) will feel an outsized impact. It’s also worth noting that that lumber shipments plunged in the wake of the 2017 Trump tariffs on softwood lumber, and volumes have yet to re-gain this lost ground.

Elsewhere, Canada’s two main railways began halting shipments of certain goods last week ahead of a potential lockout of over 9k engineers, conductors, and yard workers on August 22nd. There is still time to strike a deal, although a work stoppage wouldn’t be unfamiliar terrain, as there have been several in the past. A few common threads emerge when these periods are examined: GDP gets directly impacted by a decline in rail transportation, which is quickly recouped when the stoppage ends. Industries like manufacturing and agriculture feel an impact given these goods get shipped on rail lines, and the federal government can and will step in to legislate parties back to work.

Last week also offered a glimpse on how housing markets performed in July. As it turns out, last month was fairly subdued for resale activity, with sales dipping month-on-month and prices flat (Chart 1). This is despite another Bank of Canada rate cut in July, and a significant drop in bond yields during the month. Of course, even with these declines, interest rates were hovering around multi-year highs. Notably, July’s sales decline only gave back a small portion of June’s hefty gain, and nowhere is it said that home sales had to go up in a straight line after rates began dropping. We view July’s soft patch for housing as temporary, with firm gains in home sales and prices likely in the second half.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Inching Towards a Pivot_3

This week’s data slate will be highlighted by the July inflation (CPI) report (Chart 2). We expect it will show continued progress towards the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target. Both headline and the average of the Bank’s preferred core measures could tick lower to around 2.5%, marking the softest reading since 2021. This would leave the door wide open for another Bank of Canada rate cut on September 4th. The Weekly Bottom Line: Inching Towards a Pivot_4

The Weekly Bottom Line: Inching Towards a Pivot_4

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SRC

Data Interpretation

Economic

The University of Michigan released the preliminary results of its Surveys of Consumers for August on August 16:

The index of consumer sentiment for August came in at 67.8 (expected: 66.9, the previous month: 66.4).

The index of current economic conditions stood at 60.9 in August (expected: 63.1, the previous month: 62.7).

The index of consumer expectations rose to 72.1 (expected: 68.5, the previous month: 68.8).

The one-year-ahead inflation expectations came in at 2.9%, unchanged from 2.9% a month earlier.

The five-year-ahead inflation expectations came in at 3%, the same as a month ago.

Consumer sentiment rose by 1.4 points in August, above expectations of 66.9. It was the first increase in five months. The current economic conditions index remained subdued, declining for the fifth consecutive month to the lowest level since December 2022. The preliminary reading of the consumer expectations index was 72.1, a four-month high. Expectations strengthened for both personal finances and the five-year economic outlook, which reached its highest reading in four months.

Year-ahead inflation expectations came in at 2.9% for the second straight month. These expectations ranged between 2.3 to 3.0% in the two years prior to the pandemic. Five-year-ahead inflation expectations came in at 3.0%, unchanged from the last five months. These expectations remain somewhat elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

This rise in consumer confidence is due in part to the decision of incumbent President Joe Biden not to seek re-election. The survey shows that 41% of consumers believe that Harris is the better candidate for the economy, while 38% chose Trump. Some consumers note that if their election expectations do not come to pass, their expected trajectory of the economy will be entirely different. Hence, consumer expectations are subject to change as the presidential campaign comes into greater focus.