Venezuela is tapping Chevron Corp. for supplies of a key feedstock after a US warship blocked the path of a Russian vessel near the country's coast, threatening to roil deliveries of the much-needed material.

The oil major can only load crude oil after it delivers a cargo of diluent naphtha — used to help oil flow in pipelines — to Venezuela, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.

The Chevron-booked ship Nave Neutrino, which was scheduled to load a parcel of crude oil at the Venezuelan government-controlled terminal of Jose, left the coast empty after two days, said two people, asking not to be named because the information is private. The vessel instead sailed to the US Virgin Islands, where it is loading naphtha for Venezuela. After discharging at Jose, it will be able to load crude, one of the people said.

Chevron, which regularly buys naphtha for its projects in Venezuela, didn't immediately return a message seeking comment. The Houston-based company has said in the past that its operations in the Latin American country comply with US laws and regulations.

The last-minute change came after the Russian vessel Seahorse, on its way to back to Venezuela from Cuba, hit the brakes when the US destroyer USS Stockdale crossed its path. The Seahorse made its way to the Venezuelan coast after the warship moved away, according to ship movements tracked by Bloomberg.

The rerouting of the Nave Neutrino underscores the challenges Venezuela has faced since the US beefed up its military presence in the region as part of a campaign to force leader Nicolas Maduro from office. Oil production, already severely constrained, now faces a new setback as dark-fleet ships reconsider approaching Venezuela's ports.

Supplies of naphtha are tight in Venezuela after an explosion at a oil facility that helps separate the material, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. The oil ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Energy – Oil rises amid risk-on move, but peace talks are crucial

The oil market received a boost from a broader risk-on move, with equities rallying and the market pricing in a higher probability of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on 10 December. As a result, ICE Brent settled almost 1.3% higher on the day. However, the market continues to pay close attention to how peace talks to end the war in Ukraine develop. Reports suggest that there have been significant changes to the proposed peace plan, with the US and Ukraine essentially drafting a new one. The more contentious points, such as those related to territory, will need to be ironed out by President Trump and President Zelensky. Obviously, Russia must agree on any deal. For oil markets, a deal could remove significant supply risk, leaving participants to focus on bearish supply fundamentals through 2026.

European gas prices came under further pressure yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) trading below EUR30/MWh to its lowest level since May 2024. Ukrainian peace talks weighed on prices somewhat, while weather forecasts for December suggest milder-than-usual temperatures after a recent cold spell. The colder weather in recent days has led to gas storage in the EU falling more rapidly. It's now 79% full, down from a 5-year average of 89%. The large investment fund gross short in the market still leaves plenty of positioning risk, particularly as we move deeper into winter. For now, funds seem to believe that the supply outlook is comfortable, with growing LNG supply.

Metals - Indonesian nickel plant cuts output

A majority Chinese-owned Indonesian nickel plant, QMB New Energy Materials, is cutting back production for at least two weeks because its tailings site is nearly full, according to Bloomberg. Indonesia accounts for around 60% of global nickel production. Its rapid expansion, driven by Chinese investment, is drawing increased local scrutiny. Much of this scrutiny comes from Indonesia's expanding High-Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) segment. The combination of intensive acid use, high waste volumes and complex tailings storage raised environmental concerns. This could influence future project approvals and add uncertainty to Indonesia's supply trajectory. Indonesia's nickel strategy relies heavily on the HPAL method, which converts vast reserves of low-grade laterite ore into battery-grade nickel—a critical material for the electric vehicle supply chain.

Nickel is the worst-performing metal on the LME this year. Prices are down more than 4% year-to-date, and the global market is heading for another year of surplus in 2026. However, supply risks do exist, as Indonesia moves to tighten control over its mining sector.

Agriculture– Cocoa prices edge lower

London cocoa came under further pressure yesterday, with the front-month contract falling below GBP3,700/t at one stage, and trading to its lowest level since January 2024. The weather in West Africa has been largely supportive for the crop recently. Meanwhile, robust cocoa arrivals at ports in the Ivory Coast signalled an improving supply outlook. Recent official numbers suggest that Ivorian bean arrivals at ports have topped 100,000 tons for three straight weeks. They are now near last year's pace after a slow start to the season that began in October.

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Brazilian coffee exporters might take at least six months to make up for the volumes they were unable to ship to the US amid steep tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. There are suggestions that Brazil has withheld about 1m bags from the US market since a 40% surcharge took effect in August. Between August and October, exports to the US dropped 51.5% to 983.97k bags. Last Friday, the White House announced it would lift the 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee.

Source: ING

The job market is weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut in December, though action beyond that depends on an upcoming flood of data delayed by the government shutdown, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday.

Since the last Fed meeting, "most of the private sector and anecdotal data that we've gotten is that nothing has really changed. The labor market is soft. It's continuing to weaken," with inflation expected to ease, Waller said on Fox Business' Mornings with Maria.

While that makes a December cut appropriate, "January could be a little trickier, because we're going to get a flood of data that's released. If it is kind of consistent with what we've seen, then you can make the case for January. But if it suddenly shows a rebound in inflation or jobs or the economy's taking off, then it might give concern" about more cuts, Waller said.

Fed officials are divided over whether to cut rates again at the December meeting, though recent comments from top policymakers - including New York Fed President John Williams on Friday - have shifted market expectations strongly in favor of another quarter-point reduction at their December 9-10 meeting. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the futures-market-implied probability of a quarter point reduction to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% is now about 83%, roughly double what it had been a week ago.

The Fed will remain information-constrained at that session, with government statistical agencies still digging through the backlog of work from the 43-day shutdown that ended November 14. The Bureau of Labor Statistics already has said it will not release a jobs or consumer inflation report for October, while the reports for November will not become public until after the Fed meets.

In the absence of those keystone data releases, officials are relying more heavily on information from private providers and on their own contacts in businesses and households around the country. Much of that information is compiled into a compendium known as the Beige Book that is released two weeks prior to each Fed meeting, with the next version due out on Wednesday.

"The labor market is still weak and ... we're getting no evidence telling me it's rebounding," Waller said. He downplayed the recently released September jobs report, showing the economy added a more-than-expected 119,000 jobs that month, as likely to be revised lower. The September report also showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% the month before.

One other policymaker joined Waller in voicing that concern on Monday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who had been on the fence over whether to support a third consecutive rate cut next month, told the Wall Street Journal she now backs a reduction.

"On the labor market, I don't feel as confident we can get ahead of it," she said in an interview Monday. "It's vulnerable enough now that the risk is it'll have a nonlinear change."

Daly, who does not have a vote on policy this year but like all Fed policymakers has a voice at the debate during meetings, now views an inflation surge as a lower risk.

By the time of the next meeting on January 27-28, however, Waller, Daly and their colleagues should be able to better gauge which of two views of the economy are starting to materialize - the one where inflation stays persistent with a risk of moving higher, a possibility that has led several regional reserve bank presidents to oppose further rate cuts, or the one where job growth remains weak and the unemployment rate increases, the outcome Waller finds most concerning.

Fed officials at the upcoming meeting will issue new economic projections that could reset expectations for any rate reductions next year. Policymakers were divided on the outlook in September, with the median official seeing only one further rate hike in 2026. Investors currently anticipate two to three cuts next year, according to data from the CME Group's FedWatch.

By the next meeting, the Fed should have in hand official estimates for jobs, the unemployment rate, and inflation through December.

"You may see a more of a meeting-by-meeting approach once you get to January," Waller said. "But I still don't think the labor market is going to turn around in the next six to eight weeks."

Source: TradingView

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have agreed to the broad terms of a deal that would support a new oil pipeline to Canada's west coast, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reported Monday.

Currently Canada has rules which Smith and industry observers say deter investors from committing to a new conduit to ferry Alberta's oil to the coast of British Columbia, and then to Asian markets. The most obvious legal block is a ban on tankers carrying oil off the northern British Columbia coast.

The federal and provincial leaders are set to announce a milestone deal granting special exemptions and "political support" to a new pipeline at a press conference in Calgary, Alberta, on Thursday, the report said, citing anonymous sources. Carve-outs would be contingent on commitments to stricter carbon pricing and a "multi-billion-dollar investment" in carbon capture from a group of oil sands companies called the Pathways Alliance, the story added.

Such a deal would mark a breakthrough in the tense relationship between the Ottawa-based-federal government, which strengthened environmental protections under previous Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the conservative oil-rich province.

A new oil pipeline is totemic for some Albertans who say the federal government holds back their province's economic potential. The idea has gained wider support as Canada attempts to diversify its exports away from the US, after President Donald Trump's tariffs and remarks about making Canada a US state. Currently, most all of Canada's oil — among the country's largest exports — is sent south. But adding export capacity runs up against the country's ambitions to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

"We hope to have more to share in the coming days," a spokesperson for Premier Smith's office said by phone, declining to elaborate on specifics. The Prime Minister's office declined to comment.

British Columbia Premier David Eby has expressed vehement opposition to a new pipeline, and cites Indigenous leaders from the region who are also against the idea. He's said forcing through a pipeline could jeopardize Indigenous support for other major projects in BC like liquefied natural gas facilities.

However, Eby does not have a legal veto power. BC was unsuccessful when mounted court challenges to the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which was completed last year and can carry 890,000 barrels of oil per day to the Vancouver area.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Bitcoin investors received an unexpected shock today as the leading cryptocurrency's price tumbled below the critical $88,000 threshold. According to real-time market data from Bitcoin World, BTC is currently trading at $87,975.05 on the Binance USDT market, marking a significant downturn that has caught many traders by surprise.

What's Driving This Bitcoin Price Decline?

The sudden drop in Bitcoin price below $88,000 represents one of the most notable market movements this week. Several factors appear to be contributing to this downward pressure. Market analysts point to increased regulatory concerns, profit-taking by early investors, and broader economic uncertainties as potential catalysts. However, experienced cryptocurrency traders understand that such fluctuations are normal in the volatile digital asset space.

How Significant Is This Bitcoin Price Movement?

While any drop below a major psychological level like $88,000 grabs headlines, context matters greatly. The current Bitcoin price represents:

Many analysts suggest this could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors who believe in Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition.

What Should Bitcoin Investors Do Now?

Facing a declining Bitcoin price requires strategic thinking rather than emotional reactions. Consider these approaches:

Where Could the Bitcoin Price Go From Here?

Technical analysts are watching several key levels closely. The $85,000 zone represents major support, while resistance sits around $92,000. The current Bitcoin price action suggests we might see continued volatility in the coming days. However, many long-term indicators remain positive for cryptocurrency overall.

Understanding Market Cycles in Cryptocurrency

Experienced investors recognize that Bitcoin price movements often follow predictable patterns. The current correction, while concerning to newcomers, fits within historical market behavior. Previous cycles have shown that such dips often precede periods of consolidation and eventual recovery.

The recent Bitcoin price drop below $88,000 serves as a reminder of cryptocurrency's inherent volatility. While short-term movements can be dramatic, the fundamental case for Bitcoin remains strong. Technological adoption continues growing, institutional interest persists, and the network effect strengthens daily. Smart investors use these moments to reassess their strategies rather than panic.

Source: CryptoSlate

Tyson Foods' decision to close a beef plant that employs nearly one third of residents of Lexington, Nebraska, could devastate the small city and undermine the profits of ranchers nationwide.

Closing a single slaughterhouse might not seem significant, but the Lexington plant employs roughly 3,200 people in the city of 11,000 and has the capacity to slaughter some 5,000 head of cattle a day. Tyson also plans to cut one of the two shifts at a plant in Amarillo, Texas, and eliminate 1,700 jobs there. Together those two moves will reduce beef processing capacity nationwide by 7-9%.

Consumers may not see prices change much at the grocery store over the next six months because all the cattle that are now being prepared for slaughter will still be processed, potentially just at a different plant. But in the long run, beef prices may continue to climb even higher than the current record highs — caused by a variety of factors from drought to tariffs — unless American ranchers decide to raise more cattle, which they have little incentive to do.

An increase in beef imports from Brazil, like President Donald Trump encouraged last week by slashing tariffs on the South American country, may help insulate consumers while ranchers and feedlots struggle with high costs and falling prices.

Here's what we know about the impact of the plant closure and the changing tariffs:

A 'gut punch' to the community

Clay Patton, vice president of the Lexington-area Chamber of Commerce said Monday that Tyson's announcement Friday felt like a "gut punch" to the community in the Platte River Valley that serves as a key link in the agricultural production chain.

When it opened in 1990, the Lexington plant that Tyson later acquired revitalized and remade the formerly dwindling town by attracting thousands of immigrants to work there and nearly doubling the population.

When the plant closes in January, the ripple effects will be felt throughout the community, undermining many first-generation business owners and the investment in new housing, Patton said. Tyson said it will offer Lexington workers the chance to move to take open jobs at one of its other plants if they are willing to uproot their families for jobs hundreds of miles away.

"I'm hopeful that we can come through this and we'll actually become better on the other side of it," Patton said.

Elmer Armijo was struck by how established the community when he moved to Lexington last summer to lead First United Methodist Church. He described solid job security, good schools and health care systems and urban development — all in doubt now.

"People are completely worried," Armijo said. "The economy in Lexington is based in Tyson."

Many local churches, Armijo's included, are already offering counseling, food pantries and gas vouchers for community members.

Cattle prices falling in response

The prospect of losing a major buyer for cattle and increasing imports from Brazil, which already accounted for 24% of the beef brought into the country this year, only adds to doubts about how profitable the U.S. cattle business might be over the next several years, making it less likely that American ranchers will commit to raising more animals.

"There's a just a lack of confidence in the industry right now. And producers are unwilling to make the investment to rebuild," said Bill Bullard, president of Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America.

Boosting imports from Brazil has the potential to affect the market — much more than Trump's suggestion to increase imports from Argentina — since the country sends more beef to America than any other. But for steak lovers, the sky-high price of the cut isn't likely to be affected regardless, as most imports are lean trimmings that get mixed into ground beef.

Kansas State University agricultural economist Glynn Tonsor said it's hard to predict whether imports will continue to account for roughly 20% of the U.S. beef supply next year. He pointed out that Trump's tariffs have changed several times since they were announced in the spring and could quickly change again.

The only constant in the equation has been that consumers have continued to buy beef even as prices soar. Tonsor said on average Americans will consume 59 pounds (27 kilograms) of beef per person this year.

Tyson faces continued losses in the beef business

There has long been excess capacity in the meat business nationwide, meaning the nation's slaughterhouses could handle many more cattle than they are processing. That has only been made worse in recent years as the government has encouraged more smaller companies to open slaughterhouses to compete with Tyson and the other giants that dominate the beef business.

Tyson expects to lose more than $600 million on beef production this year after already reporting $720 million of red ink in beef over the past two years.

Tonsor said it was inevitable that at least one beef plant would close. Afterward, Tyson's remaining plants will be able to operate more efficiently at closer to full capacity.

Ernie Goss, an economist at Creighton University in Omaha, said the Lexington plant likely wasn't measuring up in the industry increasingly reliant on technological advancements that enhance productivity.

"It's very difficult to renovate or make the old plant fit the new world," said Goss, who completed an impact study for a new Sustainable Beef plant. The Lexington facility "just wasn't competitive right now in today's environment in terms of output per worker."

Source: Yahoo Finance