[BOE] July Rate Decision: Cuts Rates by 25bp but Remains Cautious on Next Moves

Remarks of Officials

Summary:

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) voted by a majority of 5-4 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, marking the first rate cut since March 2020.

The Bank of England voted by a majority of 5-4 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5% on August 1, with the decisive vote in favor of the cut coming from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey. The monetary policy report showed:

CPI inflation has fallen further since the May Report and was at the MPC's 2% target in May and June. Within that, goods price inflation was slightly negative, reflecting past declines in external cost pressures, while services price inflation remained elevated at 5.7%. CPI inflation is expected to increase to around 2.75% in the second half of this year, as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison, revealing the prevailing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures.

Activity has picked up quite sharply so far this year, stronger than the projection in the May Report, but underlying momentum appears weaker. UK GDP is expected to have risen by 0.7% in Q2, 0.4% in Q3, and 0.2% in Q4.

Despite strong GDP growth, aggregate demand and supply have remained broadly in balance. The UK labor market is loosening but it remains relatively tight by historical standards. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4% for the next few quarters before rising modestly. By the end of 2025, the unemployment rate will reach around 4.75%.

Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings (AWE) growth has fallen back since mid-2023 but remained elevated at 5.6% in the three months to May. Falls in short-term inflation expectations and the loosening in the labor market mean that wage growth is expected to fall further in the near term, likely dropping to 4.8% in Q3.

The Committee's framework for assessing the medium-term outlook for inflation distinguishes between first and second-round effects. The MPC has been focused on second-round effects that capture more persistent inflationary pressures.

The impact of past external shocks has abated and there has been some progress in moderating risks of persistence in inflation. In balancing these considerations, at this meeting, the Committee voted to reduce Bank Rate to 5%. The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.

UK Monetary Policy Report

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WELLS FARGO

Economic

Nonfarm labor productivity increased at a stronger-than-expected 2.3% annualized rate in Q2, bringing the year-ago change to 2.7%. The pickup helped tamp down growth in unit labor costs. Unit labor costs are now growing less than 2% on trend and provide further evidence that inflation pressures from the labor market are easing. Firm Productivity Gains Helping the Inflation Fight_1

Firm Productivity Gains Helping the Inflation Fight_1

Working Smarter

Productivity optimists received another indication of improving labor efficiency today. Nonfarm labor productivity, measured by output per hour worked, increased at a 2.3% annualized rate in the second quarter. The better-than-expected outturn comes on the heels of a meager 0.4% rise in the first quarter and brings the year-over-year percent change to 2.7% (chart). Through Q2, labor productivity growth has averaged 1.6% this cycle, a touch stronger than the past business cycle's 1.5% average (2007–2019).

The firming in productivity growth is notable because it has scope to improve the economy's potential rate of growth. As we wrote in a series earlier this year, potential GDP growth is primarily determined by two factors: the labor force and labor productivity. Both factors were growing at historically weak rates before the pandemic and were expected to continue on lackluster paths through mid-century. Yet the recent momentum in productivity suggests those expectations are going a little stale. We suspect remote work and broadening adoption of artificial intelligence will be supportive of solid labor productivity growth in the coming years, which could meaningfully boost economic growth without leading to higher inflation.

Firm Productivity Gains Helping the Inflation Fight_2

Indeed, the pickup in productivity in Q2 helped tamp down growth in unit labor costs (ULCs), which can be thought of as the productivity-adjusted cost of labor. Compensation per hour worked rose at a 3.3% annualized clip in Q2, but ULCs rose at a more modest 0.9% pace as employees were able to produce more in a given hour of work.

We are hesitant to take too much signal from a single release because productivity data tend to be volatile on a quarter-to-quarter basis. When smoothing annual growth with a four-quarter moving average, however, the trend in ULC growth is firmly down (chart). The tamer run-rate of unit labor costs, taken together with the moderation in nominal compensation costs per the Employment Cost Index in Q2, adds further evidence that inflation pressures from the labor market are easing. Amid the softening labor market and subsiding inflation pressures—thanks in part to productivity gains—we expect the Federal Reserve to embark on a series of rate cuts beginning at its next meeting on September 18. Firm Productivity Gains Helping the Inflation Fight_3

Firm Productivity Gains Helping the Inflation Fight_3

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Commodity

Energy

Geopolitical risks drive market uncertainty

Oil prices are surging as tensions in the Middle East escalate and US oil demand reaches new heights. The recent assassination of Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran by Israeli forces has sparked fears of a widening conflict in the region. This event, coupled with the assassination of a senior Hezbollah official in Lebanon, has created a volatile environment for global oil markets.

Iran's retaliation threat fuels price surge

The assassination of Haniyeh on Iranian soil has led to immediate threats of retaliation from Tehran. This development has given a substantial boost to oil prices, with analysts suggesting that any significant action by Iran could potentially push Brent crude oil into three-digit territory. As of Thursday morning, Brent crude had surpassed $81.00 per barrel, while West WTI was trading around $78.50.

International community calls for diplomatic resolution

The United Nations Security Council has responded to the escalating situation by urging member states to intensify diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. Representatives from various nations, including Japan and China, have expressed deep concern over the potential for widespread conflict in the region. The Iranian representative to the UN has labelled the assassination of Haniyeh as an act of terrorism, further heightening tensions.

Record US oil demand adds to bullish sentiment

Contributing to the bullish oil market outlook, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported that oil demand in the United States reached a seasonal record in May, at 20.80 million barrels daily. This figure represents a significant upward revision from previous EIA estimates and underscores the strength of US energy consumption.

Global oil inventories reach record deficit

Adding to the fundamental reasons for oil's surge, global oil inventories are reportedly on a downward trajectory. According to Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, inventories have reached a record deficit relative to their average levels. Nuttall also noted improvements in OPEC+ production cut compliance as a factor contributing to a bullish view on oil.

Market outlook: Upward pressure likely to persist

Unless diplomatic efforts succeed in de-escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices are expected to continue their upward trajectory. This outlook is based on a combination of strong fundamental factors, including high demand and declining inventories, as well as the growing geopolitical risk premium. As the situation remains fluid, market participants will be closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on global oil supplies and prices.

How are IG clients positioned?

Recent oil price weakness has seen a surge in IG clients buying into the commodity. As the chart of US light crude positioning below shows, IG clients have boosted their net long positions from 55% at the July peak to over 80% this week when the price reached a near two-month low. Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions and Record US Demand_2

Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions and Record US Demand_2

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Markets anticipate a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in September.

2. Former BOJ official says the BOJ will likely hike rates in October.

3. Oil prices drop as demand concerns outweigh Middle East tensions.

4. Senate majority leader challenges Supreme Court's Trump immunity ruling.

5. BOE cuts rates by 25bp but remains cautious about the next moves.

[News Details]

Markets anticipate a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in September

Market bets on a Fed rate cut have increased due to concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note continued its overnight decline, falling to 4.11% in early Asian trading, the lowest level since May 2023.

Interest rate futures markets are pricing in 87 basis point rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year, 13 basis points shy of four rate cuts within the year. With three Fed meetings remaining this year, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 33%.

Former BOJ official says the BOJ will likely hike rates in October

Kazuo Momma, a former BOJ monetary policy official, suggested that the recent policy shift by the Bank of Japan makes another rate hike in October highly likely, with potential quarterly hikes thereafter.

"The BOJ's policy reaction function has changed now. This means of course that there's also a chance of another hike in January," said Momma. The BOJ's current stance seems to be that, with real interest rates remaining extremely low, they can continue to raise rates as long as the economy doesn't face major shocks. This approach is driven by a weak yen and widespread wage gains.

Oil prices drop as demand concerns outweigh Middle East tensions

After achieving the largest increase in over nine months, oil prices fell due to signs of a slowing U.S. economy, which outweighed concerns about potential supply disruptions from escalating Middle East tensions. WTI crude futures dropped 2.1%, closing below $77 per barrel.

On Thursday, data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity posted its largest contraction in eight months, raising concerns about a potential decline in oil demand and causing investors to shy away from risk assets. At the same time, reports of Iran planning retaliation against Israel have raised fears that the conflict could escalate, potentially involving the U.S. and Iran and disrupting oil exports.

While geopolitical tensions certainly warrant market caution, the recent surge in oil prices seems overdone unless there is a tangible impact on global oil supply, especially given signs of a slowing global economy.

Senate majority leader challenges Supreme Court's Trump immunity ruling

On August 1, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill to reverse a recent Supreme Court decision regarding former President Trump's presidential immunity. According to this bill, the U.S. President and Vice President would not be immune from prosecution for federal criminal offenses committed while in office.

The bill also clarifies that Congress, not the Supreme Court, determines to whom federal criminal laws may be applied. On July 1, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump had a degree of criminal immunity in federal cases related to alleged interference in the 2020 election and instructed lower courts to reconsider the case to determine which actions are protected from prosecution.

BOE cuts rates by 25bp but remains cautious about the next moves

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) voted 5-4 to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 5%, meeting market expectations and marking the first rate cut since March 2020. Committee members Greene, Haskel, Mann, and Pill voted to keep rates unchanged. The decisive vote for the rate cut came from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey.

Bailey said inflationary pressures have eased enough that we've been able to cut interest rates today, but the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee would move cautiously going forward. In the statement, Bailey emphasized the need to ensure inflation remains low and warned against rapid or excessive rate cuts.

Bailey declined to comment on the future path of interest rates when asked about whether this rate cut will be "one and done". He said that the decision to lower interest rates was "finely balanced" and noted that services price inflation and domestic inflation pressures remain elevated.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 14:30: Switzerland CPI YoY (Jul)

UTC+8 20:30: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)

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Devin

Central Bank

Economic

Big investors are growing more confident about a comeback for neglected UK assets, with the Bank of England's move to cut interest rates from a 16-year high burnishing the feel-good factor from the new British government's landslide election win.

The BoE cut rates by a quarter point to 5.0% on Thursday, in a decision markets had thought was on a knife-edge.

The result, money managers said, signaled Britain's battle with weak growth and high inflation might be coming to an end just as an era of political turmoil and uncertainty was also potentially over.

Shaken for years by Brexit, successive leadership changes under the former Conservative government and by ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss' disastrous 2022 mini-Budget, UK stocks are weakly valued and government bonds are trailing U.S. peers.

But while the BoE's policymakers voted 5-4 for a cut, showing deep division over whether inflation has been tamed, they also cheered investors by raising their economic growth projections.

"The unusual combination of a rate cut and an upgraded growth forecast should be a clear positive for markets," Principal Asset Management chief global strategist Seema Shah said.

"The UK today has fiscal policy that looks much more normal than in periods of crisis during the recent past and the macro (economic) backdrop looks better given growth is picking up," Lombard Odier macro strategist Bill Papadakis said.

"This development in monetary policy is really the cherry on the cake."

Papadakis said he had turned positive on UK stocks around the time former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the election in late May and would hold the position, predicting signs of weakness in British markets on Thursday were temporary.

Sterling briefly fell to its lowest in nearly a month after the decision, before recouping much of those losses to trade around 0.7% down on the day at $1.2772. Two-year gilt yields, the most sensitive to BoE policy, fell 11 basis points to 3.703%, while the FTSE 250 dipped 0.65% but was still close to its highest since early 2022. Bank of England Rate cut Boosts Comeback factor for UK Markets_1

Bank of England Rate cut Boosts Comeback factor for UK Markets_1

Back in business?

Investors have yanked money out of British equity funds for at least two years, according to Lipper data.

Although the FTSE 250 mid-cap share index has risen as much as Wall Street's mighty S&P 500 in the last three months, with an 8% gain, it is still valued at close to a record discount to the benchmark U.S. index.

The international bond markets that price government's creditworthiness minute-by-minute have warmed to the UK, however, with the benchmark 10-year gilt yield almost a full percentage point lower year to-date at 3.874% as the security's price has risen.

Gilts are continuing their long-term trend of underperforming U.S. Treasuries, but are starting to attract more interest.

Harry Richards, fixed income investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management, said he added UK government bonds to the largest funds he manages around three months ago, for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.

"It was never something we found that attractive," he said, adding that he changed his view because he believed UK inflation would fall quickly and longer-dated gilts were undervalued.

International investors, he predicted, would come back to UK debt markets.

"The Liz Truss debacle led to a lot of foreign investors saying they didn't want anything to do with UK fixed income," he said.

"International investors can now feel more comfortable." Bank of England Rate cut Boosts Comeback factor for UK Markets_2

Chaos No More

Labour leader Keir Starmer achieved a historic election majority for his the left-of-centre party in July after pledging to rebuild wealth and crumbling infrastructure.

Starmer and his finance minister Rachel Reeves have also promised not to increasing borrowing for day-to-day spending, having inherited a national debt pile approaching 100% of economic output.

"Reeves is treading very carefully and the gilt markets like that," said Jason Simpson, fixed income strategist at State Street's SPDR ETF business.

He added that this situation was febrile, with bond investors still twitchy about the cautious tone changing.

Shamil Gohil, a fixed income manager at Fidelity International, said he was positive on UK gilts, but viewed Reeves' first Budget in October as a major risk event.

Sterling Shimmers

In terms of short-term currency speculation at least, bullishness on Britain is high. Sterling is this year's top performing currency against the U.S. dollar and hedge funds and other traders are sitting on their largest ever derivatives bet that the pound will rise, data from the U.S. markets regulator showed.

Thursday's rate cut was unlikely to dent sterling's allure, because UK rates at 5% remained relatively high and Britain's political, growth and inflation outlooks were better, said April LaRusse, head of investment specialists at Insight Investment.

"I don't think this is the beginning of some repricing of sterling. I think on the whole the UK looks pretty attractive." Bank of England Rate cut Boosts Comeback factor for UK Markets_3

Bank of England Rate cut Boosts Comeback factor for UK Markets_3

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Falling bond yields and the prospect of lower interest rates may have helped fuel investors' animal spirits and the recent mega rally in world stocks, but it's a different story when borrowing costs are falling because recession fears are rising.

That's the market landscape investors in Asia wake up to on Friday after disappointing U.S. factory data on Thursday slammed U.S. Treasury yields, Wall Street, and stocks, prompting traders to start betting on a possible 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed next month rather than 25 bps.

Figures showing a much larger-than-expected contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity last month followed purchasing managers index data earlier on Thursday that painted a similar picture in Germany, Japan and China.

China's 'unofficial' Caixin manufacturing PMI was particularly galling at 49.8, signaling a contraction, compared with a consensus forecast of 51.5 and fairly steady growth.

With China's economy already in the doldrums, renewed weakness in Europe and the U.S. is bad news for global growth. Central bank rate cuts, the latest of which came from the Bank of England on Thursday, may have to be deeper and faster than analysts and policymakers had bargained for. Markets Wilt as Growth Fears Slam Yields_1

Markets Wilt as Growth Fears Slam Yields_1

Markets Wilt as Growth Fears Slam Yields_2

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tumbled 13 basis points, its biggest one-day fall this year, and is now below 4.0%. Never mind the great rotation out of Mega Tech into small caps, investors seem to be rotating out of stocks and into the safety of U.S. Treasuries.

Apple, Amazon and Intel reported earnings after the U.S. close on Thursday and the early signs are investors were not impressed. Intel's outlook, in particular, was bleak, and shares fell 15% in after-hours trading.

Investors in Asia will be hoping for a calmer end to a momentous week, the highlight of which was a rate hike in Japan.

As Washington-based economist Phil Suttle puts it: "Judged by the actions of other central banks, these were hardly major moves. Judged by Japanese policy over the past 25 years, these were major moves."

So far this year the Bank of Japan has raised rates twice, ended yield curve control and started QT, Suttle noted.

Markets Wilt as Growth Fears Slam Yields_3

Asia's economic calendar on Friday is light, with only South Korean inflation likely to be a market-mover. A Reuters poll suggests the annual rate ticked up to 2.50% in July from a one-year low of 2.40% in June.

Swaps market pricing points to 35 basis points of easing from the Bank of Korea this year. Barclays economists on Thursday forecast quarter-point rate cuts in October and November.

Asia's corporate calendar on Friday is busier, with earnings reports due from Japan including Nintendo and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

- South Korea inflation (July)

- Australia producer price inflation (Q2)

- U.S. non-farm payrolls (July)

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Economic

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is one of the most influential technology companies globally, known for its cutting-edge advancements in graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence (AI). As the demand for high-performance computing continues to rise across various industries, NVIDIA's stock has become a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. FintechZoom, a leading financial technology platform, provides comprehensive coverage of NVIDIA stock, offering valuable insights, real-time data, and advanced analytical tools. In this article, we will explore FintechZoom's extensive analysis of NVDA stock and discuss how the integration of FastBull enhances the platform's offerings.

Overview of NVIDIA Corporation

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NVIDIA’s reach extends far beyond gaming, as the company has made significant strides in AI, machine learning, and data center technologies. These innovations have positioned NVIDIA at the forefront of technological advancements, driving its stock performance and making it a key player in the global technology sector.

Key Factors Influencing NVIDIA Stock

Technological Innovations: NVIDIA’s continuous innovation in GPUs, AI, and data center technologies is a primary driver of its stock performance. The company’s ability to stay ahead of technological trends and deliver high-performance products is critical to its success.

Market Demand for GPUs: The demand for GPUs across gaming, professional visualization, and data centers significantly impacts NVIDIA’s revenue and stock price. As industries continue to adopt high-performance computing solutions, NVIDIA stands to benefit from increasing demand.

Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships: NVIDIA’s strategic acquisitions, such as the purchase of Mellanox Technologies, and partnerships with leading companies, have expanded its market presence and enhanced its product offerings. These moves are closely watched by investors and analysts, as they can influence the company’s long-term growth prospects.

Financial Performance and Earnings Reports: NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings reports are critical indicators of its financial health. Strong revenue growth, profit margins, and forward-looking guidance can boost investor confidence and drive stock price appreciation.

Global Economic Conditions: Like all technology companies, NVIDIA is affected by global economic conditions, including supply chain disruptions, trade policies, and changes in consumer spending. These factors can introduce volatility into the stock’s performance.

FintechZoom's Comprehensive Coverage of NVDA Stock

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Key Features of FintechZoom’s NVDA Stock Analysis

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How FintechZoom Enhances NVDA Stock Analysis

Real-Time Data and Market Updates

One of the most significant advantages of FintechZoom is its provision of real-time market data for NVDA stock. Investors can monitor the stock’s performance throughout the trading day, allowing them to make timely decisions based on the latest information. Real-time updates on stock prices, trading volumes, and market movements are crucial for active traders and long-term investors alike.

Comprehensive Financial Analysis

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Historical Data and Long-Term Trends

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The Role of FastBull in Enhancing NVDA Stock Analysis

FastBull, a fintech platform known for its real-time market signals and in-depth analysis, plays a complementary role in FintechZoom’s stock analysis offerings. By integrating FastBull's tools and expertise, FintechZoom enhances its capabilities in analyzing NVDA stock, providing investors with additional resources and insights.

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The integration of FastBull’s real-time signals and expert analysis with FintechZoom’s comprehensive data and tools creates a powerful ecosystem for NVDA stock investors. This synergy allows users to leverage the strengths of both platforms, enhancing their ability to make strategic and informed investment decisions.

Conclusion

NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a dominant force in the technology sector, driven by its innovations in GPUs, AI, and data centers. As the company continues to push the boundaries of technology, its stock presents both opportunities and challenges for investors. FintechZoom provides a robust platform for analyzing NVDA stock, offering real-time data, in-depth financial analysis, advanced charting tools, and expert insights.

The addition of FastBull’s real-time market signals and in-depth analysis further enhances FintechZoom’s offerings, creating a comprehensive resource for investors. Together, these platforms empower investors to navigate the complexities of the stock market, capitalize on opportunities, and achieve their financial goals with NVIDIA stock. As the financial landscape continues to evolve, the collaboration between FintechZoom and FastBull exemplifies the potential of fintech platforms to revolutionize stock analysis and investment strategies.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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[BOE] July Rate Decision: Cuts Rates by 25bp but Remains Cautious on Next Moves

UK Monetary Policy Report

Firm Productivity Gains Helping the Inflation Fight

Working Smarter

​​Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions and Record US Demand

Geopolitical risks drive market uncertainty

​Iran's retaliation threat fuels price surge

​International community calls for diplomatic resolution

​Record US oil demand adds to bullish sentiment

​Global oil inventories reach record deficit

​Market outlook: Upward pressure likely to persist

​How are IG clients positioned?

August 2nd Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

Bank of England Rate cut Boosts Comeback factor for UK Markets

Back in business?

Chaos No More

Sterling Shimmers

Source: Reuters

Markets Wilt as Growth Fears Slam Yields

Source: Reuters

FintechZoom NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock: In-Depth Analysis

Overview of NVIDIA Corporation

Key Factors Influencing NVIDIA Stock

FintechZoom's Comprehensive Coverage of NVDA Stock

Key Features of FintechZoom’s NVDA Stock Analysis

How FintechZoom Enhances NVDA Stock Analysis

Real-Time Data and Market Updates

Comprehensive Financial Analysis

Advanced Technical Analysis Tools

Historical Data and Long-Term Trends

The Role of FastBull in Enhancing NVDA Stock Analysis

FastBull’s Contribution to NVDA Stock Analysis

Integration and Synergy

Conclusion

Risk Disclosure

Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions and Record US Demand

Iran's retaliation threat fuels price surge

International community calls for diplomatic resolution

Record US oil demand adds to bullish sentiment

Global oil inventories reach record deficit

Market outlook: Upward pressure likely to persist

How are IG clients positioned?