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      XAUUSD: Prices Could Enter Medium-Term Recovery Phase After Sharp Sell-Off

      Global InflationInterest Rate ResolutionThe Fed
      Summary:

      Spot gold extended last week's plunge on Monday, officially erasing all of its gains since 2022. Gold has been under tremendous pressure this month, boosted by the Fed's tightening policy, robust performance of the USD, and rising U.S. Treasury Securities. For now, prices appear to officially enter the mid-term recovery phase.

      Sell XAUUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      1825.00

      ENTRY PRICE

      1770.00

      TGT PRICE

      1852.00

      SL PRICE

      1810.93 +3.87 +0.21%

      1763

      Points

      Loss

      1770.00

      TGT PRICE

      1842.63

      CLOSING

      1825.00

      ENTRY PRICE

      1852.00

      SL PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Spot gold fell below US$1,790 per ounce during the European session on Monday, dropping more than 1% during the day to a new low since February 3, 2022. Last week, gold prices hit their worst single-week performance since June last year due to weaker equity markets, robust performance of the USD, and market expectations of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
      On Friday, gold prices continued to hit their lowest levels since early February as U.S. Treasury Securities yields rose. Gold prices fell 1.7% at one point on Thursday after the release of U.S. PPI data for April, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its rapid path of rate hikes to slow down an overheating economy. U.S. 10-year Treasury Securities yields fell last week, which would normally support demand for gold, but gold's appeal was damaged by the USD's rebound.
      The USD is expected to strengthen for a sixth straight week as risk assets fall across the board. For now, the main factor driving gold prices lower is market volatility, which is pushing investors more towards the USD.
      Overall, the price of gold is at its lowest level in 14 months. In addition, the price of gold is currently below its 200-day SMA, which is usually considered a bearish continuation. Will prices maintain this downtrend in the near term? We think prices could enter the medium-term recovery phase after a sharp decline.

      Technical Analysis

      In the large cycle timeframe, last week, gold prices stopped falling near the support of the trend line, and the bullish momentum during the Asian session did not increase in early trading this week. It is difficult to generate a sustained rebound strength when the fundamentals are bearish and when there are many SMA pressures on the top of the technical charts, with indicators generally maintaining bearish. It suggests that there is still room for further downturns or the risk of further declines to around US$1,770.XAUUSD: Prices Could Enter Medium-Term Recovery Phase After Sharp Sell-Off_1
      In the 1D timeframe, the gold price is temporarily operating near the pullback line support and the trend line support. However, the gold price has been operating below the 100-200 SMA, which has strengthened the overall bearish expectation in the afternoon, so the rebound is still limited. Attention should be given to the 5th - 10th day (US$1825, US$1850) above, and the SMA resistance is still bearish.
      Support: 1790, 1878
      Resistance: 1834, 1842
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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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      Focus on

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