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      USDX: Non-Farm Payrolls Could End the Divergence between the Market and the Fed

      Summary:

      As long as the non-farm payrolls are not lower than 200,000 this time, it will not lower the three-month average of non-farm payrolls to below 300,000. That level will still reflect the still strong (private) labor demand and will have little impact on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) move to raise interest rates. This non-farm payroll could temporarily abandon the market's idea of a slowdown in interest rate hikes or even delay that expectation. In other words, this non-farm payroll will be bullish for the US dollar (USD).

      Buy USDX
      EXP
      EXPIRED

      105.559

      ENTRY PRICE

      106.867

      TGT PRICE

      104.800

      SL PRICE

      108.123 +0.648 +0.60%

      --

      Point

      EXPIRED

      104.800

      SL PRICE

      106.500

      CLOSING

      105.559

      ENTRY PRICE

      106.867

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      The USD fell by 0.59% on Thursday, weakening against most major currencies. Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a hawkish speech, stating that further interest rate increases are needed to ease demand and that rates need to be slightly over 4%. He believes rate hikes will continue into the first half of next year, then pause, and then decrease. However, as there have been six Fed officials this week on different occasions delivered "hawkish" speeches, the market has long digested.
      The aim of the Fed is apparent and is countering expectations that interest rate hikes will slow down. However, in terms of the trend of the USD, the financial markets remain unmoved, at least so far. That means the financial markets are not performing in line with the message the Fed is trying to present. In a sense, the markets are still confronting the Fed, and the ultimate referees will be the economic data.
      The non-farm payroll to be released during the session is a promising opportunity, with the market expecting 250,000, significantly below the prior value. However, of the six non-farm payrolls releases so far this year, five have exceeded expectations. So, it is still worth looking forward to.
      In addition, until the last non-farm payrolls, the average non-farm payrolls for the previous three months was 383,000. As the previous non-farm payrolls have performed well, they have set a solid foundation for the current average figure. As long as the non-farm payrolls are not lower than 200,000 this time, it will not lower the three-month average of non-farm payrolls to below 300,000. That level will still reflect the still strong (private) labor demand and will have little impact on the Fed's move to raise interest rates.
      Based on previous non-farm payrolls, it will not be difficult to reach this level, if not surprising. This non-farm payroll could temporarily abandon the market's idea of a slowdown in interest rate hikes or even delay that expectation. In other words, this non-farm payroll will be bullish for the USD.

      Technical Analysis

      In the 4-hour chart, the dollar continues its decline after hitting the bottom of the channel. The price is supported at 105.559, with strong support at 105.00, and is temporarily resisted by the 200 moving average (MA) (106.215). In terms of indicators, Stoch shows a clear ascending trend; in DMI, ADX shows that the descending trend of the USD is weakening; ±DI are lowering, and +DI is at lows, at 18.4; In the Ichimoku chart, the USD is temporarily resisted by the baseline; meanwhile, the turning line, the baseline and the candlestick where the current price is located are not far apart, with prices are not yet in a position to rise. Overall, the USD will fall in the short term and then start to rise.
      USDX: Non-Farm Payrolls Could End the Divergence between the Market and the Fed_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 105.559
      Target price: 106.867
      Stop loss: 104.800
      Support: 105.559/105.00/104.698
      Resistance: 106.215/106.867/107.254
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      Jason

      Analyst

      I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

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