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The war between Russia and Ukraine continues, and it is difficult for the two sides to reach an agreement in negotiations. Western countries have imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia. The outlook is unpredictable.

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Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has led to an escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that the U.S. side and the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces colluded to provoke China, which is the fundamental reason for the tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

The Fed

The Federal Reserve (Fed), or the central bank of the United States, is responsible for regulating the U.S. monetary policy and interest rates. As a provider of liquidity for world trade, the Fed is also known as the world's central bank. Its every move affects the global economy and financial markets.

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Focus on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit ! How will China-U.S. relations develop in the future, win-win cooperation or confrontation?

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      EURUSD: The Closer the Price Gets to the Bottom of the Range, the More Cautious the Bears Should Be

      Global InflationInterest Rate Resolution
      Summary:

      Driven once again by soaring food and energy prices, the preliminary annual CPI in the Eurozone registered 8.6% in June, higher than the 8.1% recorded in May. The data reflects growing pressures on households and businesses in the 19 eurozone member states and reinforces calls for a significant interest rate hike by global central banks.

      Buy EURUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      1.03800

      ENTRY PRICE

      1.04600

      TGT PRICE

      1.03490

      SL PRICE

      1.00427 -0.00454 -0.45%

      310

      Points

      Loss

      1.03490

      SL PRICE

      1.03469

      CLOSING

      1.03800

      ENTRY PRICE

      1.04600

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Headline Eurozone CPI accelerated in June, rising by 8.6% (a new record high). This clearly sets the foundation for the more significant interest rate hikes already pre-committed by the European Central Bank (ECB). However, there was some good news. The core CPI fell back to 3.7% from 3.8% in May, compared to expectations of 3.9%. This can be considered positive as core prices have, at least for now, stopped accelerating.
      Although we had inflation data from a number of countries in the region earlier this week, this data has had no significant impact on the markets. However, inflation in the Eurozone rose to a record high while consumer, business, and investor sentiment all continued to fall. Stagflation is the main risk facing the Eurozone, which means that even though the ECB has paved the path for significant interest rate hikes of 75 basis points in July and September, it still unsettles markets. Moreover, the fact that inflation is diverging across the Eurozone means that the ECB will have difficulty in how to use its policy tools flexibly and it could make the whole situation even more confusing. These would be disconcerting, and all of these point to a confusing monetary policy and potential political chaos.
      EURUSD: The Closer the Price Gets to the Bottom of the Range, the More Cautious the Bears Should Be_1

      Technical Analysis

      The stronger the support and resistance levels in the range, the greater the market importance they gain, at least in the conventional view. However, in terms of the EURUSD, if the price continues to fall below these support levels, these levels are more of a barrier than a help. This is because many people believe that the EURUSD will fall to parity. But the bulls still seem to dominate. That said, the closer the price gets to the bottom of the critical range, the more cautious the potential bears should be.
      This Friday, the EURUSD started a new round of falls below the resistance level of 1.0500. In the New York session, the price maintains a neutral bias after approaching the bottom of the range. In terms of the fall, a successive breakdown of the 1.0336 level will resume a more significant descending trend. The next target is the long-term forecast level of 1.0090.
      On the negative side, after breaking below the 1.0336 level, the 1.0400 (psychological level) and 1.0380 (static level) instead became the resistance level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the four-hour chart is holding at lows, confirming that the sellers want to maintain control over the bears.
      Overall, the focus remains on the long-term support level at 1.0336. A decisive break will resume the overall descending trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). The next target is the 1.0090 level. However, as we said above, the closer the price gets to the bottom of the range, the more cautious the bears will be. Then, it is recommended to go long at lows at the bottom of the range (in the short term).

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 1.0380
      Target price: 1.0460
      Stop loss: 1.0349
      Valid until: 2022-07-15 20:00:00
      Support: 1.0356
      Resistance: 1.0424
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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      Focus on

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