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      COPPER: Risk Faded, Short the Lows

      Commodity
      Summary:

      Panic has been stabilized for the time being and investors' trading logic may shift to the fundamentals of the copper market.

      Buy COPPER
      End Time
      CLOSED

      8550.000

      ENTRY PRICE

      8900.000

      TGT PRICE

      8300.000

      SL PRICE

      8981.545 +0.600 +0.00%

      62345

      Points

      Profit

      8300.000

      SL PRICE

      8612.345

      CLOSING

      8550.000

      ENTRY PRICE

      8900.000

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Macroscopically, Wall Street stepped in to bail out First Republic Bank, and market risk aversion eased after 11 major banks jointly injected 30 billion USD. However, the ECB ignored the banking crisis and announced last night that all three major interest rates would be raised by 50 basis points, exceeding market expectations. Besides, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points next Thursday is increasing again, while the retracement of copper is also limited.
      For inventories, SMM China's mainstream regional copper inventories fell by 8,700 tons from Friday to 0.2624 million tons on Monday, with total inventories now up 65,800 tons from 0.1966 million tons before the Chinese New Year and down 67,500 tons from the post-holiday high. In addition, Electrolytic copper stocks plummeted in all regions of China over the weekend and are expected to keep falling. 
      On the supply side, the Cobre Panamá copper mine is back to normal after the Panama Maritime Authority lifted its suspending order against the First Quantum Minerals' loading operations at the port of Punta Rincón. Meanwhile, the latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) showed that in January 2023, global refined copper production was 2.2811 million tons and refined copper consumption was 2.3482 million tons, leaving a supply shortfall of 67,100 tons. 
      Regarding news, as reported in the foreign news on March 16th, the European metal industry agreed with the EU's move to list copper and nickel as strategic materials for the first time on Thursday and to ensure faster access to permits and easier access to capital. Moreover, copper is used in renewable energy systems and electric vehicles, while nickel is a major component of many electric car batteries.
      In general, the ECB raised rates by 50bp as expected despite the Credit Suisse crisis, boosting the probability of a 25-50bp Fed rate hike in March. Overnight, the stock markets in Europe and the US rallied, stabilizing the panic temporarily, but external expectations are unstable, and market volatility amplified. Furthermore, China's domestic economic data in January and February are better than expected, and the recovery is expected to persist. Besides, March and April are hot months for consumption, and copper's fundamental is stronger, with the downstream buying at lows, the inventory is reaching the inflection point, and thus the copper price will be supported. For aggressive traders, it is better to buy at lows with small positions.

      Technical Analysis

      Referring to the daily chart, copper rebounded with oscillations after descending, indicating a weak trend. Recently, copper arrived at the lower section of the triangle channel, falling below the two-day low of 8483 and once touched the lowest point at 8439, which was the starting point of the year's appreciation. Today, copper stabilized and rebounded after gaining support at this position, and it is expected to surge to 8900 if the decline is stopped. Currently, MACD's opening is heading below the 0-axis, and copper is weak in the short term. Nevertheless, aggressive traders shall go long at lows with small positions along with the channel's low.COPPER: Risk Faded, Short the Lows_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 8550
      Target price: 8900
      Stop loss: 8300
      Support: 8650/8400
      Resistance: 8900/9200
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Focus on macroeconomic analysis with extra attention to the geopolitical impact on financial markets.

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      Win Rate

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      P/L Ratio

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      Focus on

      WTI, COPPER, XAUUSD

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