BTCUSDT: Bitcoin Rally Is Weak, with Risk of Breakdown

Summary:

The recent sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has been weak, and the rally has been weak. Then, Bitcoin is at risk of breaking down.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

20128.7

Entry Price

15000.0

23000.0

38259.1 +741.6 +1.97%

1062.5

Pips

Profit

15000.0

19066.2

Exit Price

20128.7

Entry Price

23000.0

Fundamentals

Recently, as markets gradually digested expectations of an aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), coupled with the increased risk of a global recession, the bets for further sharp rate hikes by the Fed were weakened. Then, the US dollar (USD) weakened generally, and risk assets such as US stocks rallied sharply. The rally in cryptocurrencies, however, was slightly unimpressive.

The Fed's dot plot for last month's interest rate resolution expected a terminal rate of 4.6% for the Fed's current round of rate hikes. This means that significant rate hikes will continue for the coming period. The pace of interest rate hikes by other central banks has not slowed down either; then, the cryptocurrencies remain under pressure.

Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has been weak recently, with less active trading overall. A report by cryptocurrency firm, Coinshares, showed that there was merely a small inflow of $10.3 million into the crypto market last week. This implies that investors are still hesitant and do not have much confidence towards the future.

BTCUSDT: Bitcoin Rally Is Weak, with Risk of Breakdown_1

Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, BTCUSDT has recently oscillated at lows. Despite the rally, the strength and the extent are not strong. The price is located near the resistance level of 20500 at the upper level of the oscillation range at the lows. The indicator RSI has entered the overbought territory in the short term. Then, the BTCUSDT can fall further again or even break down in the future. If the price falls strongly below the 18700 level, it will open further room to the downside. The price can fall towards 15000 in the future.

It is recommended to go short at highs. You can go short when the price rallies to around 20360. The target is set around the support level of 15000, with a stop-loss above 21680.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 20360

Target price: 15000

Stop loss: 23000

Support: 18700/18000

Resistance: 21680/20360

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Go Long at the Lows in Face of Obvious Pullback Resistance

King Ten

Summary:

The USD witnessed a continuous pullback, but as long as the USD rebounds a little, the USDCNH will have a larger upward trend, which is obviously stronger at 7.04-7.05. At present, the direction of least resistance is still bullish.

BUY USDCNH

Close Time

CLOSED

7.04500

Entry Price

7.10000

7.01500

7.12861 -0.00313 -0.04%

300.0

Pips

Loss

7.01500

7.01478

Exit Price

7.04500

Entry Price

7.10000

Fundamentals

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released the September data on October 3 (local time). The ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded a low of 50.9 ever since May 2020, which was a big drop from 52.8 in August. The New Orders Index was 47.1, and the Manufacturing Prices Paid Index was 51.7. The data continued to fall, which is also expected. However, the greatest problem in the U.S. is not the weakening of the economy. The key is to see whether inflation can continue to decline, whether this non-farm payroll will continue to turn bad, or whether the dot plot of interest rate hikes is difficult to change.

The USD gained support near 110 and showed signs of stabilization. It is recommended to wait for the non-farm payroll data while going short cautiously. For USDCNH, it should also be treated as a wide-range oscillation, but the direction of less resistance has turned upward for now.

Technical Analysis

On the candlestick chart in the 1D timeframe, the USDCNH uptrend has remained unchanged and retraced over 40% of its high. The day before, the candlestick also fluctuates near the 20-day SMA, testing the support level. Technically, the longer the trend goes, the stronger the support will be. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

USDCNH: Go Long at the Lows in Face of Obvious Pullback Resistance_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: long

Entry point: 7.04500

Target: 7.10000

Stop Loss: 7.01500

Support: 7.02000, 7.00000

Resistance: 7.10000, 7.14000

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Range Oscillation Maintained Before Non-Farm Payroll Data Release

Damon

Summary:

ETH 4 hours chart gradually formed a range oscillation trend that may continue until the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday.

SELL ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1355.66

Entry Price

1280.00

1450.00

2068.67 +32.26 +1.58%

472.7

Pips

Profit

1280.00

1308.39

Exit Price

1355.66

Entry Price

1450.00

Hot Spots

1. Fidelity launched an Ethereum Index Fund, which has now raised over $5 million.

2. US Treasury: crypto asset activity may pose a risk to the stability of the US financial system.

3. The European Parliament voted in favor of using blockchain technology to modernize the tax process.

4. McDonald's began accepting bitcoin payments in Lugano, Switzerland.

Sentiment

The Crypto Fear/Greed Index is 25 at the moment, which is extreme fear. Yesterday and the day before were 20 and 24 respectively. The current rally does not affect the market sentiment much, and BTC futures trading volume has recently been at a stage low since December 2020, proving that the market's willingness to trade is still not strong.

Technical Analysis

ETH 4 hours chart gradually formed a range oscillation, with support below the 1250 and resistance above the 1360-1420. Nothing news recently, the oscillation pattern may remain until the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday. It''s a good idea to stay within the range for high throw bargain - hunting.

ETH 4 hours chart

ETH-USDT: Range Oscillation Maintained Before Non-Farm Payroll Data Release_1

ETH daily chart

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry level: market price

Target level: 1280

Stop Loss: 1450

Downside support: 1250, 1000

Upside resistance: 1420

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

After Supply Hype, Beware of Expectation Differences

King Ten

Summary:

It is widely expected that OPEC+ will announce a significant oil production cut this Wednesday to push up oil prices, and oil prices have risen sharply in response, so beware of expectation differentials.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

85.600

Entry Price

82.500

88.000

76.672 +0.083 +0.10%

240.0

Pips

Loss

82.500

88.004

Exit Price

85.600

Entry Price

88.000

Fundamentals

ISM released September U.S. Manufacturing data on 3rd local time, ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9, a new low since May 2020.

Russia's Nord Stream Pipeline 1 and 2, which transmits natural gas to Europe, leaked in four places, and the resumption of gas is far away, exacerbating energy supply tensions in Europe. OPEC and its oil production cut allies will hold a ministerial production policy meeting on October 5, and it is widely expected that the organization will announce significant production cuts to push up oil prices, with holdings expected to be as high as 1-2 million BPD, pay close attention to whether the OPEC resolution meets expected, the current market price has Price-in, beware of the expected difference.

Technicals Analysis

From the 4-hour chart, the upward channel of the candlesticks is still smooth, but there is some resistance near $86. At present, depending on the unsettled news to rush higher, the foundation is not firm, beware of retracement. WTI: After Supply Hype, Beware of Expectation Differences_1

WTI: After Supply Hype, Beware of Expectation Differences_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: short

Entry point: 85.600

Target: 82.500

Stop Loss: 88.000

Support: 83.500, 82.500

Resistance: 87.000, 89.000

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Turning Point Has Come and the Bull Target of 1.4000 Must Be Given Up

Eva Chen

Summary:

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36100

Entry Price

1.32070

1.38360

1.35725 +0.00004 +0.00%

226.0

Pips

Loss

1.32070

1.38362

Exit Price

1.36100

Entry Price

1.38360

Fundamentals

The USDCAD fell below the 1.3600 level during the Asian session and recovered to near the daily high in the early European session. However, the USDCAD even fell below the early Asian session lows due to the lack of follow-through on the upward momentum and the heavily quoted development around the USD. Therefore, here comes the turning point, and the previous bearish move to the target of 1.4000 must be abandoned.

Factors driving the CAD's strength include market expectations that OPEC+ will continue to support crude oil prices and commodity-linked CAD with its largest production cut since the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. This, together with the prevailing USD selling bias, adversely affected the USDCAD and supported the prospect of a (downward) widening correction from the current level of the USDCAD to its highest level since May 2020.

Indeed, the US Dollar Index (USDX), which measures the USD's performance against a basket of currencies, hit a week-and-a-half low as Treasury Securities yields continued to fall. At the same time, the Bank of England (BOE) reiterated its purchase of up to GBP 5 billion of long-term gilt-edged bonds, dragging the yield on U.S. Treasury Securities off the multi-year high hit last week and weakening the USD as an important factor in the downward pressure on the USDCAD.

In addition, market participants remain concerned that a further global economic downturn will weaken fuel demand. This will limit the strong rise in crude oil and help further limit the downside space for the USDCAD. This makes it prudent to wait for a strong subsequent sell-off before confirming that the spot price has reached its recent peak.

And in terms of broader central bank policy, the market now expects the Bank of Canada (BOC) to continue its rate hikes in its next two meetings and begin easing policy as early as Q1 of 2023. If the BOC were to validate this shift in expectations, the price of the USDCAD would likely depend largely on U.S. yields. Instead, early pricing by the BOC at the end of the tightening cycle will lead the market to make a new assessment of the USDCAD. Our early assessment of USDCAD in Q4 is now in the 1.3250 and 1.4100 range.

Uncertainty over BOC policy and high sensitivity to risk sentiment led us away from the resilient view we held on the CAD in Q3. As a result, we now see USDCAD ending the fourth quarter at around 1.4100.

USDCAD: Turning Point Has Come and the Bull Target of 1.4000 Must Be Given Up_1

Technical Analysis

After three consecutive weeks of gains, the USDCAD fell below last week's low of 1.3557, signaling the official end of the bull target to 1.4000 in the near term.

The USDCAD failed to gain further upside in line with our expectations after a small break above the previous high at 1.3833 earlier on Monday. However, the USDCAD failed to hold further above the key support at 1.3567 after retesting it and broke below the early Asian session low at 1.3567, signaling a downside move in the near term. The move is supported by the structural pattern.

In the 4H timeframe, the early short-term SMAs form a death cross, which is further confirmed (a death cross) in the 1D timeframe. This pattern means that any higher price is an opportunity to short. It is recommended to go short at the highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1.3610

Target price: 1.3207

Stop loss: 1.3836

Deadline: 2022-10-18 20:00:00

Support: 1.3495, 1.3343

Resistance: 1.3567, 1.3665

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Mutual Pursuit Seems to Fade with Less-than-expected Australian Fed Rate Hike

Eva Chen

Summary:

The Australian Fed is expected to raise interest rates further in the coming months, but the rate will be lower than the market expects. Inflation is expected to peak later this year and then fall back to a range of 2% to 3%. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and it is important to keep this in place.

SELL AUDUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

0.66400

Entry Price

0.63620

0.67700

0.66277 -0.00191 -0.28%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.63620

0.63147

Exit Price

0.66400

Entry Price

0.67700

Fundamentals

The Australian Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.6% on Tuesday; the highest level in nine years, although lower than the 50 basis points expected by the market. This is the most aggressive tightening cycle for the Australian Fed as they are catching up with other central banks; however, the mutual pursuit seems to be fading.

The fact that the Australian Fed did not raise rates by 50 basis points does suggest that they are nervous about the wobbly economy, that household budgets remain a "significant source of uncertainty" and that the full impact of higher mortgage rates has yet to be fully realized.

As they mentioned in their September statement, inflation is expected to increase "by about 7.75% over 2022," which is still more than 2.5 times the current cash rate. However, as Lowe later testified to Parliament on September 8, with inflation expected to be around 2.5%, it makes more sense to base policy adjustments relative to inflation expectations on the current level of inflation.

The break-even rate, a market indicator of inflation expectations, is currently below the current cash rate, suggesting that the policy is restrictive. As long as inflation expectations remain at the upper limit, the case for the Australian Fed to pause or even confirm the end of its tightening cycle will increase.

A recent poll suggests that the Australian Fed will raise rates to 3.35% (or higher) by the end of the year. With two more meetings this year, the market seems to be leaning towards a single 25 basis point hike at the November and December meetings at the moment. However, we suspect that we will even see the Australian Fed suspend the rate hike in December and reassess it in February next year, which would leave the November hike adjusted to 25 basis points and the rate at 3.1% by year-end.

AUDUSD: Mutual Pursuit Seems to Fade with Less-than-expected Australian Fed Rate Hike_1

Technical Analysis

As the market bounces off the June lows, the stochastic oscillator is forming a bullish divergence. It has become quite tough for AUDUSD to get back to the 200-day SMA at 0.7000 again; therefore, we prefer to seek higher bearishness until sentiment deteriorates again.

In the 1D timeframe, the Australian dollar remains within the established downtrend and broader bearish channel. In the 4H chart, bulls continue to be pressured by the declining trendline and a potentially symmetrical triangle forming below the monthly pivot point. While the intraday bias remains neutral and a stronger recovery will be seen, the upside will be limited by support-turned-resistance well below 0.6756. Given that the Fed remains hawkish despite higher benchmark rates and the Australian Fed is easing, we remain bearish on the AUDUSD trend and we would prefer to see a break of new lows and seek a bearish reversal around resistance. And a break of the 0.6362 level would resume a larger downtrend. It is recommended to go short at the highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 0.6640

Target price: 0.6362

Stop loss: 0.6770

Deadline: 2022-10-18 20:00:00

Support: 0.6449, 0.6393, 0.6362

Resistance: 0.6551, 0.6576, 0.6669

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Dollar Pullback, But Not for Unilateral Gaming

King Ten

Summary:

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released the U.S. September PMI data to decline seriously, still above the boom-or-bust line; with the U.S. dollar pulled back slightly, it is appropriate to treat the USDCNH with oscillation during the Chinese National Holidays, and it is not advisable to play excessively unilaterally.

BUY USDCNH

Close Time

CLOSED

7.05000

Entry Price

7.14000

7.02000

7.12861 -0.00313 -0.04%

300.0

Pips

Loss

7.02000

7.01989

Exit Price

7.05000

Entry Price

7.14000

Fundamentals

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released September data on the 3rd local time, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9, a new low since May 2020, with a larger decline than the 52.8 in August; the Manufacturing New Orders Index was 47.1, and the Manufacturing Prices Paid Index was 51.7. Although the Manufacturing PMI index is still above the boom-or-bust line and continues to expand, the growth rate is at the lowest level since the outbreak started to recovery.

The Manufacturing New Orders Index contracted for the third time in four months, also indicating weak demand, and the Manufacturing Price Payment Index has fallen to its lowest level since June 2020, which also shows that the aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation have achieved some success, pending continued observation of the effect.

The dollar has seen a slight softening, but we must also see the tough attitude of the U.S. Hawks. The high point of the policy rate for the year has not really arrived yet, and the U.S. labor market is still hot. The inflation issue is not a quick fix, and it is not advisable to play unilaterally with the dollar continuing to weaken, and it is important to wait for the non-farm payroll data on Oct. 7.

Technical Analysis

From the daily chart, USDCNH upward trend has not yet changed, and this rally started from 6.75 to 7.27 and has now retraced 40% from the high, below the challenge of support near the 20-day SMA, and you can rely on the 20-day SMA to establish a long single. USDCNH: Dollar Pullback, But Not for Unilateral Gaming_1

USDCNH: Dollar Pullback, But Not for Unilateral Gaming_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: long

Entry point: 7.0500

Target: 7.1400

Stop loss point: 7.0200

Support: 7.0200, 7.0000

Resistance: 7.1000, 7.1400

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Thomas

Analyst

I am good at analyzing and interpreting the political and economic situation in Southeast Asia to find investment opportunities.

Ranking

Articles

Win Rate

0.00%

P/L Ratio

1.26

Focus on

ETH-USDT, BTC-USDT, USDCNH

Related Analysis

BTCUSDT：The Low Box has Broken Through, and the Short-Term Bullish Idea Remains BULLISH

PROFIT +460.6 Pips

ETHUSDT: Oscillating in the Short Term with High Pressure of Breaking Downward

PROFIT +667.3 Pips

ETHUSDT: Oscillating Downward and Targeting the 1000 Mark?

LOSS -471.0 Pips

BTCUSDT: Tightening Environment Continues to Exert Pressure, with Relatively High Risk of Breakdown

PROFIT +308.0 Pips

ETHUSDT: The Trend Is Bearish with a Possibility of a Second Dip

PROFIT +826.3 Pips

Home News AI Signals Analysis Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Data Warehouse Pro Video User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us

Risk Disclosure

The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.

Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Tensions in Northern Myanmar

Daily News

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Jan Aldrin Laruscain

Recent Searches

Trending Searches

News

Analysis

7x24

Quotes

Economic Calendar

Video

Data

Share to get 1-year PRO for free

Share the link to get membership

Scan QR code with mobile phone

Upgrade to FastBull Pro

BTCUSDT: Bitcoin Rally Is Weak, with Risk of Breakdown

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Go Long at the Lows in Face of Obvious Pullback Resistance

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Range Oscillation Maintained Before Non-Farm Payroll Data Release

Hot Spots

Sentiment

Technical Analysis

ETH 4 hours chart

ETH daily chart

Trading Recommendations

After Supply Hype, Beware of Expectation Differences

Fundamentals

Technicals Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Turning Point Has Come and the Bull Target of 1.4000 Must Be Given Up

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Mutual Pursuit Seems to Fade with Less-than-expected Australian Fed Rate Hike

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Dollar Pullback, But Not for Unilateral Gaming

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure