After Breaking Below $4,100, Gold Enters a Medium-Term Correction; Targeting $4,700 in H2 2026 While the Long-Term Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

Summary:

Gold remains under near-term pressure and is expected to face further consolidation. Prices are projected to recover toward the $4,700 area in the second half of 2026 before undergoing another pullback. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the structural bull market remains intact, with the uptrend expected to resume in 2027 after the current correction is complete.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4157.82

Entry Price

4700.00

3950.00

4102.58 -3.52 -0.09%

0.0

Pips

Flat

3950.00

Exit Price

4157.82

Entry Price

4700.00

Fundamentals

In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain constrained by softer demand and continue trading within a broad range. The main headwinds are weakening purchasing power across key demand segments and renewed sensitivity to movements in real interest rates. As long as the high-interest-rate environment persists, the upside for gold is expected to remain limited.

That said, we maintain a constructive medium- and long-term outlook. As markets gradually absorb the impact of elevated interest rates, gold is expected to enter a recovery phase in the second half of 2026, with prices potentially rebounding toward $4,700 in the third quarter before retreating to around $4,200 in the fourth quarter to complete a broader consolidation.

Looking ahead to 2027, continued central bank gold purchases, recovering physical demand, and sustained long-term portfolio allocation demand are expected to remain the key drivers of higher gold prices. Supported by both safe-haven demand and reserve diversification, gold should retain its long-term investment appeal. We expect prices to establish a solid base around $4,200 before embarking on a new bullish cycle.

After Breaking Below $4,100, Gold Enters a Medium-Term Correction; Targeting $4,700 in H2 2026 While the Long-Term Bullish Outlook Remains Intact_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the break below the key support level of $4,100 has invalidated the medium-term bullish structure, signaling the start of a broader corrective phase. Even if a technical rebound unfolds, the market is likely to remain trapped in a wide consolidation range until prices reclaim and firmly hold above $4,100.

From a medium-term perspective, the $4,100 level has shifted from a major support zone to a critical level that should no longer be violated if the recovery is to remain intact. During the repair process, gold is expected to gradually establish higher lows before rebounding toward the $4,700 area in the second half of 2026. This region represents both a significant technical resistance zone and the likely peak of the current corrective rally. Should bullish momentum fade at that stage, prices are expected to retreat once again toward the $4,200 area to complete a more comprehensive medium-term consolidation.

From a longer-term perspective, as long as the $4,200 region develops into a solid support base, the broader bullish trend should remain intact. The current decline is viewed as a medium-term correction within an ongoing secular bull market rather than a long-term trend reversal. Once the corrective process is complete and upside momentum rebuilds, gold is expected to resume its long-term advance in 2027 and establish new cycle highs.

Trading Recommendation

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4,130

Target Price: 4,700

Stop Loss: 3,950

Valid Until: August 6, 2026, 23:55

Support: 4,118 / 4,068 / 4,023

Resistance: 4,204 / 4,329 / 4,382

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