World oil demand to keep growing this decade despite 2027 China peak, IEA says

Economic

Summary:

Despite China’s oil demand peaking in 2027, global demand will continue rising until 2029, driven by slower EV adoption and cheaper gasoline in the U.S., according to the International Energy Agency.

Global oil demand will keep growing until around the end of this decade despite peaking in top importer China in 2027, as cheaper gasoline and slower electric vehicle adoption in the United States support consumption, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

Despite seeing an earlier demand peak for China, the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, stuck to its prediction that global demand will peak by 2029. This view sharply contrasts with that of producer group OPEC, which says consumption will keep growing for much longer.

Oil demand will peak at 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029 and then fall slightly in 2030, a table in the Paris-based IEA's annual report shows. At the same time, global production capacity is forecast to rise by more than 5 million bpd to 114.7 million bpd by 2030.

A conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the risk to Middle East supplies, helping send oil prices up 5% to above $74 a barrel on Friday. Still, the latest forecasts suggest ample supplies through 2030 if there are no major disruptions, the IEA said.

"Based on the fundamentals, oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement. "But recent events sharply highlight the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security," Birol said.

In a separate report on Tuesday, which included a commentary on the market impact of the Israel-Iran conflict, the IEA said the world market looks well supplied this year in the absence of a major disruption as growth in supply exceeds that of demand.

Global supply in 2025 will rise by 1.8 million bpd, up 200,000 bpd from last month, the IEA said. This is partly because OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, is raising output.

World demand in 2025 will rise by a much lower 720,000 bpd, the IEA said, down 20,000 bpd from last month's forecast.

CHINA PEAK

After decades of leading global oil demand growth, China's contribution is sputtering as it faces economic challenges as well as making a big shift to EVs.

The world's second-largest economy is set to see its oil consumption peak in 2027, following a surge in EV sales and the deployment of high-speed rail and trucks running on natural gas, the IEA said. In February, it predicted China's demand for road and air transport fuels may have already peaked.

China's total oil consumption in 2030 is now set to be only marginally higher than in 2024, the IEA said, compared with growth of around 1 million bpd forecast in last year's report.

By contrast, lower gasoline prices and slower EV adoption in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, have boosted the 2030 oil demand forecast by 1.1 million bpd compared with the previous prediction, the IEA said.

U.S. electric vehicles are now expected to account for 20% of U.S. total car sales in 2030, down from 55% assumed last year, the report said.

Since returning to office, U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded OPEC lower oil prices and has taken aim at EVs through steps such as signing resolutions approved by lawmakers barring California's EV sales mandates.

Source: Reuters

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Devin

Political

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One after departing early from the the G7 summit in Canada to return to Washington, June 17, 2025.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned Iran leader Ali Khamenei that he is an "easy target" and that "our patience is wearing thin," before demanding Tehran surrender in its conflict against Israel.

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Crypto companies are investing in Democrats as they seek to muscle an industry-friendly regulatory regime through Congress and ensure new laws persist after President Donald Trump leaves office.

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. added David Plouffe, a former senior adviser to Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential campaign and Barack Obama aide, to its global advisory council last week. Meanwhile, stablecoin giant Tether Holdings SA recently registered Lilette Advisors, a firm founded by staffers for former President Joe Biden, as their lobbyist, according to public disclosures filed at the end of May. Ankit Desai, a partner of the firm who used to work for Biden, is listed as El Salvador-based Tether’s only lobbyist in the registration.

“In the long run, Democrats are likely to take power back in at least one of these chambers or the presidency,” said Austin Campbell, an adjunct professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and the head of the stablecoin company WSPN USA. “So if you made this industry explicitly partisan, boy do you have a problem.”

Last month, venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, one of crypto’s largest investors, hired Michael Reed, formerly a top adviser to House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, as a government affairs partner. The founders of what’s known as a16z were among the largest donors to Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.

Democrats are essential to advancing crypto legislation in the Senate, where 60 votes are needed to clear procedural hurdles for most bills.

Crypto’s massive spending on campaigns aiding crypto-friendly Democratic Senate candidates and opposing crypto skeptics paid off on June 12, when the chamber voted 67-27 to cut off debate on landmark stablecoin legislation known as the GENIUS Act. Sixteen Democrats voted with the Republican majority, with final passage of the bill expected Tuesday, despite Republicans successfully blocking Democratic efforts to amend the measure to block Trump from profiting off of his many crypto ventures.

Crypto companies have become increasingly worried the stablecoin measure, which also must pass the House, might be the only digital asset legislation signed into law. They are pushing to ensure broader market structure legislation — advanced last week by the Financial Services and Agriculture committees on bipartisan votes — doesn’t stall.

Banking Chair Tim Scott, a Republican from South Carolina, told Bloomberg News he anticipates holding a hearing on that broader measure in July, but doesn’t expect Senate action until the fall. Some other Republicans however want the House to package both bills together.

“Time is your enemy when you’re trying to pass a bill,” Campbell said. “Everybody comes out of the woodwork to try to staple completely unrelated stuff onto it. That’s how we end up with these giant thousand page omnibus bills that do 80 different things.”

Democrats initially united to filibuster the legislation earlier last month amid a furor over Trump’s crypto dealings, with progressive Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Jeff Merkley of Oregon leading demands that the president be barred from profiting off his memecoin and a separate stablecoin venture.

Two Senate Republicans voted to filibuster the stablecoin bill. Josh Hawley of Missouri had sought to amend the bill to block large technology companies from issuing their own stablecoins. And Rand Paul of Kentucky wanted to add an amendment requiring an audit of the Federal Reserve. An effort by retailers and their allies in the Senate to mandate competition in credit card processing also failed to get a vote amid Republican infighting. Coinbase has been lobbying to allow interest to be paid on stablecoin accounts, but those efforts have so far been unsuccessful in persuading lawmakers in the House or the Senate.

While hostility to the Biden Administration’s regulatory policies led many major crypto participants to support Trump’s most recent campaign, the crypto industry has not always leaned Republican. Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced co-founder of crypto exchange FTX, was the second-biggest individual donor to Democrats in the 2022 election cycle. Many members of Congress shied away from crypto after his exchange collapsed and politicians ended up returning Bankman-Fried’s funds.

Last week, the House Financial Services and Agriculture committees advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, informally referred to as crypto’s market structure bill. The House has been moving swiftly on the far more complicated piece of legislation, but not without rifts between Democrats and Republicans over amendments targeting Trump’s crypto profits. The CLARITY Act aims to provide a comprehensive regulatory framework, including delineating responsibilities between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission.

“Market structure is a whole different kettle of fish,” Campbell said. “They’re trying to boil the ocean with that bill and it’s going to have a lot of knock on effects they have not thought about.”

Source:Bloomberg

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Adam

Economic

It doesn't take much to spook investors.

For several months the broader macro environment has functioned like a grab bag of justifications to close out and watch from afar. Trade uncertainty, an unmoving Fed, and turmoil in the Middle East have kept money on the sidelines. And by the time you are reading this, those storylines will have already changed.

Sensitivity to global events has also worked in investors' favor. It takes a lot to get the market down for a 10 count, even if it trips and even falls on a semi-regular basis. Being unfazed has yielded powerful returns as the S&P approaches the prior highs of February. But for as much as fickleness has defined Wall Street, optimism has a track record of rolling over negative catalysts in a year full of them.

For those surprised at how resilient the markets have been despite the swirling geopolitical headlines, analysts have pointed to several factors that are motivating investors. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note on Monday that the parties behind the hostilities between Israel and Iran are likely interested in keeping the conflict contained, and that investors are also banking on limited disruption of oil production facilities.

Jitters over the potential for a widening of the violence appeared to have been calmed amid a report that Tehran is looking to deescalate the conflict. On Monday, oil prices eased lower in a new sign that investors don't believe a protracted war — and fresh energy pricing pressures — will ensue this summer.

As for the Fed, many central bank watchers expect officials to stick with their cautious approach, even or perhaps especially because of heightened uncertainty. Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote in a note on Monday that the Fed is likely to adhere to a plan of "patience" and "wait and see" as officials analyze how the mix of higher tariffs and tax cuts will impact the economy.

The Fed isn't coming to the rescue, at least for a few more months. But as far as the stock market is concerned, even with mounting external events, there isn't much that needs rescuing.

source : finance.yahoo

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Adam

Stocks

Economic

Sector Overview

The US stock market is painting a diverse picture today as traders navigate a mix of gains and losses across sectors. The energy sector emerges as a star performer, with giants like Exxon Mobil (XOM) soaring 4.65% and Chevron (CVX) rising 1.89%, buoyed by rising oil prices that align with the global demand outlook.

The story, however, is not as positive on the tech front. The technology sector is under pressure, with Microsoft (MSFT) dipping 0.63% and Apple (AAPL) losing 0.40%. In the software application segment, despite challenges, Salesforce (CRM) defies the trend with a 1.87% gain, showcasing resilience amidst general sector weakness.

Over in consumer cyclicals, Tesla (TSLA) falls 1.79% amid ongoing supply chain challenges, dragging the auto manufacturers' segment into negative territory. Meanwhile, the retail juggernaut Amazon (AMZN) remains nearly flat, slipping just 0.01%, reflecting mixed investor sentiment regarding e-commerce growth prospects.

Market Mood and Trends

Today's market mood embodies a complex mix of cautious optimism and defensive stances. Investors are eyeing oil's rally as a potential harbinger for energy sector opportunities, while scrutinizing tech and auto sectors for signs of recovery or further decline. The muted performance in medical and financial sectors, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) barely moving up 0.02%, underscores a lingering market uncertainty.

Telecom, particularly, highlights bearish trends with T-Mobile (TMUS) plummeting 3.90%, a notable outlier reflecting industry-specific pressures or competitive challenges.

Strategic Recommendations

Investors advised to maintain vigilance, especially in energy stocks which could continue benefitting from current global conditions. Tech and consumer cyclical sectors present both risks and opportunities. Consider diversifying with resilient performers like Salesforce to cushion against broader sector volatility.

Traders should also stay abreast of developments in the tech supply chain and automotive production challenges, as these factors could unlock new opportunities or necessitate strategic pullbacks. Overall, a carefully balanced portfolio remains the key to navigating these seemingly discordant market patches.

Keep following ForexLive.com for real-time updates and in-depth analyses to help steer your investment decisions towards long-term gains. As always, diversified strategies paired with timely information will be instrumental in maneuvering today's convoluted market terrain.

source : forexlive

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Thomas

Political

President Trump while on his way back from the G7 summit in Canada, which he cut short short due to the Middle East situation, said to reporters aboard Air Force One Tuesday morning that he wants "a real end" to Iran's nuclear problem. He expressed his assumption that Iran is "very close" to having nuclear weapons.

He asserted this means nothing less than Tehran "giving up entirely" its enrichment activities. "I didn't say I was looking for a ceasefire," he said. This was in follow-up to a scathing message he wrote on Truth Social, saying that French President Emmanuel Macron had "mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a 'cease fire' between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that."

Via Associated Press

Late yesterday Trump had issued an unprecedented written message telling some ten million Iranian inhabitants to "immediately evacuate" Tehran amid ongoing Israeli strikes, suggesting that a much bigger assault is coming - a warning made much more ominous by the open secret that Iran possesses nukes.

"You're going to find out over the next two days. You're going to find out. Nobody's slowed up so far," Trump said further, hours after the evacuation warning - which came just before 3am local time.

But he also caveated that "I may" send US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff or Vice President JD Vance to meet with Iranian officials to seek de-escalation and negotiations. "It depends what happens when I get back," he added.

What made the whole exchange even more interesting is that all of this was partially in response to a question regarding director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s March testimony that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. Here's the exchange:

CNN: You’ve always said you don’t believe Iran should have a nuke. Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that Iran wasn’t building a nuclear weapon.

Trump: I don’t care what she said. They were very close to getting a nuke.

It's also the case that the CIA's latest assessment maintains that the Islamic Republic is likely not seeking a nuclear weapon. Crucially this was part of the DNI's annual threat assessment.

Gabbard had previously firmly stated before the Senate Intelligence Committee that the US intelligence community "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003."

And yet currently, a second US aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz, is en route to Mideast waters, and US Air Force fuel tankers are being positioned in Europe - all for the Pentagon to ready more 'options' for President Trump should military action be initiated (Congress might want a word...).

While the tempo of the exchange of strikes have slowed, the exchange of missile fire has persisted...

Gabbard has in hours following Trump's comments insisted she and Trump are "on the same page" over Iran’s nuclear weapon timeline. "President Trump was saying the same thing that I said in my annual threat assessment back in March in Congress. Unfortunately, too many people in the media don’t care to actually read what I said," Gabbard told reporters as she arrived on Capitol Hill Tuesday.

Meanwhile, at the G7 which Trump left, a joint statement stress that "Iran can never have a nuclear weapons" while also urging de-escalation of the conflict. It added that Israel has a "right to defend itself" - however, made no mention of the Iranians being able to defend themselves (of course, this new war began with an Israeli aerial attack on the country).

Source: Zero Hedge

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Oil rose as comments from President Donald Trump reined in speculation about a quick end to the conflict between Israel and Iran, keeping the market on edge about potential crude supply disruptions in the Middle East.

West Texas Intermediate added about 3% to trade around $74 a barrel in a choppy session that saw prices swing between gains and losses. The uncertainty drove a gauge of crude market volatility to three-year highs.

After leaving the Group of Seven leaders meeting in Canada early, Trump played down the prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and said he wants “a real end” to the conflict. He told reporters aboard Air Force One that he wanted Tehran’s nuclear program “wiped out,” according to CBS.

Trump said on Tuesday that he hadn’t reached out to Iran for peace talks in “any way, shape, or form,” but that “if they want to talk, they know how to reach me.”

So far, Iran’s crude-exporting infrastructure has been spared, and most of the fallout has been confined to shipping. The market remains focused on any sign that Tehran may seek to disrupt crude flows across the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s daily output passes.

Elevated options trading indicates that “investors are still positioning for potential price spikes this month as tensions persist,” said Razan Hilal, market analyst at Forex.com.

An incident in which two oil tankers collided near the waterway was a reminder of the risks to energy flows in the region. Navigation signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are facing increasing interference that’s affecting positional reporting, according to the UK Navy, and some shipowners are reluctant to accept bookings in the region, citing safety concerns.

A blaze spotted in waters near the area on Tuesday isn’t security related, according to a maritime risk firm.

Oil prices still remain significantly higher than where they were before the attacks began, which prompted record volumes of producer hedging as well as futures and options changing hands. Morgan Stanley has hiked its price forecasts, citing increased risk from the conflict.

Israel said it has taken control over much of Iran’s airspace and severely damaged key facilities used in its missile and nuclear programs since the assault was launched on Friday, sparking fears of widening conflict in a region that produces around a third of the world’s crude.

“There might be growing hopes that a slow but irreversible de-escalation will follow soon, but it is simply impossible to foretell the outcome with great confidence,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM. “In the Israel-Iran war, the completion of the geopolitical cycle might take longer than just a few days.”