World Bank Warns 2020s Face Weakest Global Growth Since 1960s

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

The World Bank lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3% and warned that the 2020s may witness the weakest economic decade since the 1960s, driven by trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

The World Bank on Tuesday cut its forecast for global growth this year and warned that the 2020s are on track for the weakest performance for any decade since the first Apollo moon landing because of trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

The Washington-based development lender lowered its 2025 outlook to 2.3%, from 2.7% projected in January. That pace would be the weakest in 17 years, outside of the recessions in 2009 and 2020 created by the shocks of the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic.

It also warned — based on its current forecasts — that global growth in the first seven years of this decade is on course to average 2.5%, the slowest for any decade since the 1960s.

Donald Trump returned to the White House this year determined to supercharge his campaign against free trade, which his administration has blamed for hollowing out the country’s manufacturing base and leaving the world’s top economy vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

But the uncertainty and volatility of Washington’s on-again, off-again tariffs, thrown up against economic and security foes like China but also against allies, has shocked markets, paralyzed investments and disrupted supply chains.

World Bank Warns 2020s Face Weakest Global Growth Since 1960s_1

Global Growth Projection Cut for 2025 and 2026

“The world economy today is once more running into turbulence. Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep,” Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, wrote in a foreword to the report. “International discord — about trade, in particular — has upended many of the policy certainties that helped shrink extreme poverty and expand prosperity after the end of World War II.”

The institution pointed that the global outlook would brighten if trade tensions de-escalate and if governments rein in borrowing and focus on job creation.

World Bank Warns 2020s Face Weakest Global Growth Since 1960s_2

Forecast for 2025 Economic Output | Change in gross domestic product (YoY)

The World Bank lowered growth forecasts for almost 70% of all economies in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.

Slower growth is expected in nearly 60% of all developing economies this year, a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the January forecast.Low-income countries are tipped to grow 5.3% this year — a downgrade of 0.4 ppt.The US will grow 1.4% this year, some 0.9 ppt lower while China’s forecast is unchanged at 4.5%.The euro area and Japan are forecast to both grow by 0.7%, a downgrade of 0.3 ppt and 0.5 ppt, respectively.

“Growth could turn out to be lower if trade restrictions escalate or if policy uncertainty persists, which could also result in a build-up of financial stress,” it warned in the report. Other risks include spillovers from weaker growth in major economies, worsening conflicts and extreme weather events.

source : Bloomberg

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Damon

Economic

Stocks

Wall Street's main indexes were mixed on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of ongoing trade talks between the United States and China aimed at cooling a tariff dispute that has bruised global markets this year.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said trade talks with China were going well as officials from the two sides met for a second day in London.

Investors are hoping for an improvement in ties after the relief around a preliminary deal struck last month gave way to fresh doubts when Washington accused Beijing of blocking exports critical to sectors such as aerospace, semiconductors and defense.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Monday the U.S. was likely to agree to lift export controls on some semiconductors in return for China speeding up the delivery of rare earths.

"I think these issues will be resolved, but I think it's still early days ... but the fact that they're talking certainly is positive," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial.

"We're not making progress yards at a time, but inches at a time."

At 10:03 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab fell 20.22 points, or 0.05%, to 42,742.88, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab gained 10.30 points, or 0.17%, to 6,016.18 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab gained 53.92 points, or 0.28%, to 19,645.16.

Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sub-sectors rose, led by energy (.SPNY), opens new tab with a 1.7% gain, tracking strength in oil prices. Communication services (.SPLRCL), opens new tab stocks added 0.9%.

U.S. equities rallied sharply in May, with the S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab marking their best monthly gains since November 2023, helped by upbeat earnings reports and a softening of President Donald Trump's harsh trade stance.

The S&P 500 remains about 2% below all-time highs touched in February, while the Nasdaq is about 2.6% below its record peaks reached in December.

Investors are awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday for clues on the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory.

The World Bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3%, saying higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies.

Shares of McDonald's (MCD.N), opens new tab fell 1.4%, weighing on the blue-chip Dow Index, after a report Redburn Atlantic downgraded the fast-food giant to "sell" from "buy".

Most megacap and growth stocks were mixed. Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab shares advanced 2.6%.

Insmed shares (INSM.O), opens new tab jumped 27.7% after the drugmaker said its experimental drug significantly reduced blood pressure in the lungs and improved exercise capacity in patients in a mid-stage study.

U.S.-listed shares of Tencent Music Entertainment Group advanced 2.2% after the Chinese company said it would buy domestic long-form audio platform Ximalaya (XIMA.N), opens new tab for about $2.4 billion in cash and stock.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.52-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.76-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 7 new 52-week highs and one new low while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 42 new highs and 29 new lows.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Stocks

Trade Talks Drive Market Sentiment as Investors Seek Clarity

Daily E-mini S&P 500 Index

U.S. markets held steady on the opening Tuesday as traders focused on ongoing trade negotiations between American and Chinese officials in London. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 11 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each gained roughly 0.2%, reflecting cautious optimism about potential breakthroughs.

Can U.S.-China Trade Talks Deliver Real Progress?

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick provided encouraging updates, stating discussions are “going well” and expected to continue throughout the day. The second day of talks builds on last month’s agreement to temporarily reduce tariffs, marking significant progress since President Trump’s broad import levy proposals sparked initial concerns.

Market participants are positioning for a deal that avoids escalating tariff wars between the world’s largest economies. “Most people are assuming that some conversation is better than nothing, that we’re making progress,” noted Adam Parker from Trivariate Research, explaining why investors remain reluctant to sell equities.

TSMC Revenue Surge Highlights Semiconductor Strength

Daily Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing emerged as a standout performer, with U.S.-listed shares climbing over 2% following strong revenue data. The chipmaker reported 39.6% year-over-year growth in May revenue, with January-May figures showing 42.6% gains compared to the same period last year. This performance underscores continued demand for advanced semiconductor technology.

Earnings Beat Propels Casey’s General Store

Daily Casey’s General Stores, Inc.

Casey’s General Store

jumped more than 10% after delivering impressive fourth-quarter results. The retailer posted earnings of $2.63 per share on $3.99 billion revenue, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of $1.94 per share and $3.93 billion revenue. Management also announced a 14% dividend increase, signaling confidence in future cash flows.

Mixed Signals From Corporate America

Daily Insmed Incorporated

Other notable movers included Insmed, which surged 26% on positive Phase 2b study results for its pulmonary arterial hypertension treatment. Conversely, J.M. Smucker fell 8% despite beating earnings expectations, as revenue of $2.14 billion missed the $2.18 billion consensus estimate.

Market Outlook: Trade Progress Key to Sustained Rally

Current market stability hinges on constructive trade dialogue outcomes. With both nations showing willingness to negotiate, reduced tariff tensions could support risk assets. However, concrete agreements remain essential for meaningful upward momentum, making trade developments the primary catalyst for near-term market direction.

Source: fxempire

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Michelle

Cryptocurrency

The crypto market is seeing positive growth due to signals from US regulators, stable international trade conditions, and the return of big investors. Recently, Bitcoin hit a value of $110,000 after briefly dropping to $100,000 last week. The cryptocurrency started the week strong, moving towards $110,000 and has been growing steadily since April.

A major reason for this growth is the renewed interest from large investors. On Monday, spot Bitcoin ETFs received $386 million, mainly from Fidelity Wise (LON:WISEa) Origin Bitcoin Fund (NYSE:FBTC), showing that market confidence is returning after recent outflows.

Another reason for the price increase is the closure of short positions in futures markets. Closing about $38 million worth of short positions helped push prices up, and a large purchase of 1,045 BTC (around $110 million) indicates that investor interest is on the rise.

Globally, the ongoing trade talks between the US and China in London are gaining attention. Their willingness to cooperate in key areas like rare earth elements and semiconductors is boosting global investor confidence and encouraging interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the market’s anticipation of upcoming US inflation data is causing a shift towards riskier assets.

In the US, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins’ supportive stance on crypto is being well-received by the market. His defense of personal control over crypto assets and his suggestion for an "innovation exemption" for DeFi platforms are creating optimism that regulatory pressure might ease. As a result, Bitcoin is gaining strength not only from technical factors but also from political and institutional support.

Bitcoin Approaching New ATHs

In the last week of May and the first week of June, Bitcoin experienced a dip, falling below $103,000. However, it quickly rebounded as buyers returned around the $100,000 mark.

Since May, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, with ongoing volatility. As of this week, it has maintained the positive momentum seen over the past three months and is approaching the $111,000 mark, which is close to a record level.

Bitcoin might reach a new record this week, depending on current market conditions. According to technical indicators like the Stochastic RSI, the upward trend is likely to continue.

Bitcoin’s price is above its short and medium-term moving averages on the daily chart, suggesting it is in a positive position. If Bitcoin can remain in the $111,000 to $114,000 range and buyers manage to overcome any selling pressure, the next target levels could be $119,000 and then $125,000.

However, if Bitcoin faces strong resistance around $111,000, there might be an increase in profit-taking, potentially causing the price to drop back to around $105,000. If Bitcoin manages to find support between $103,000 and $105,000, a stronger upward trend could develop.

Current macroeconomic factors and market risk appetite might continue to support Bitcoin’s rise, but it’s important to keep an eye on the support zone during any potential pullbacks.

Ethereum Finds Strength from Staking Transactions, Institutional Interest

Ethereum is one of the assets directly benefiting from Bitcoin’s rise. After finding support around the $2,430 mark last week, ETH saw an increase of over 10% and reached the upper limit of its trading range.

For the past month, Ethereum has been fluctuating between $2,430 and $2,730, and it continues in this range thanks to strong institutional demand. Interest in Ethereum ETFs is strong, and on-chain data shows a significant increase in interest, with the number of weekly active wallets hitting an all-time high of 17.4 million.

This indicates that both individual and institutional buyers are becoming more active on the network. Additionally, a record 34.8 million ETH is locked up, suggesting that investors are choosing to stake rather than sell. This suggests the market may be entering another accumulation phase.

SEC Chairman Atkins’ recent statements at the DeFi meeting on June 9 clarified that staking activities won’t be classified as securities, a key legal development for Ethereum. This may speed up the approval process for ETFs with staking features.

For instance, BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETHA has been steadily accumulating ETH for 23 consecutive trading days without any outflows, suggesting a strong base for ETH at its current levels over the medium to long term.

Can Ethereum Breach $2,700 Resistance?

Although the positive winds continue to blow for Ethereum, which leads the altcoin market, the cryptocurrency has not yet found enough support to overcome its resistance in the $ 2,700 region.

After Ethereum rose to the $2,730 mark again earlier this week, it is seen that purchases have weakened at this point. However, the technical outlook continues to generate positive signals at the point of breaking this resistance level. According to the current outlook, a daily close above $2,730 or volume buying could quickly move ETH to the $3,000 region. Then the next target will be followed as the $ 3,400 area.

In the lower region, if $ 2,700 cannot be passed, we may see a new swing towards $ 2,430. On this path, the range of $ 2,540-2,580 may appear as an intermediate support. As a result, Ethereum is likely to move quickly towards the exit direction from the $ 2,400-2,700 range.

Source: Investing

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Adam

Commodity

Gold and silver prices are near steady in early U.S. trading Tuesday, as the general marketplace appears to be pausing amid a lack of major fundamental news developments early this week. August gold was last down $0.40 at $3,354.40. July silver prices were last up $0.034 at $36.835.

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings today in New York. Much of the marketplace is pausing amid the closely watched U.S.-China trade talks in London that have entered a second day but with no official announcements on any progress. There are rumors of some progress in the talks, with some news outlets reporting both sides are willing to make some concessions.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $65.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.45%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index.

Gold, silver seeing price pauses as traders await new inputs_1

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $3,427.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,250.00. First resistance is seen at $3,375.00 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,321.30 and then at this week’s low of $3,313.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Gold, silver seeing price pauses as traders await new inputs_2

July silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $40.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $34.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $37.03 and then at $37.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $36.425 and then at $36.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

source : kitco

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Political

Britain and other allies imposed sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, on Tuesday over "their repeated incitements of violence against Palestinian communities", the UK's foreign ministry said.

Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway joined Britain in freezing the assets and imposing travel bans on Israel's national security minister Ben-Gvir - a West Bank settler - and finance minister Smotrich.

"Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have incited extremist violence and serious abuses of Palestinian human rights. These actions are not acceptable," British foreign minister David Lammy, along with the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway said in a joint statement.

"This is why we have taken action now to hold those responsible to account."

Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Saar, said the move was "outrageous" and the government would hold a special meeting early next week to decide how to respond to the "unacceptable decision".

Smotrich, speaking at the inauguration of a new settlement in the Hebron Hills, spoke of "contempt" for Britain's move.

"Britain has already tried once to prevent us from settling the cradle of our homeland, and we cannot do it again. We are determined God willing to continue building."

Britain, like other European countries, has been increasing pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to end the blockade on aid into Gaza, where international experts have said famine is imminent.

In Tuesday's joint statement, allies tried to soften the blow by saying Britain reiterated its commitment to continuing "a strong friendship with the people of Israel based on shared ties, values and commitment to [its] security and future".

"We will strive to achieve an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the immediate release of the remaining hostages by Hamas which can have no future role in the governance of Gaza, a surge in aid and a path to a two-state solution," the statement said.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

President Donald Trump’s trade wars are expected to slash economic growth this year in the United States and around the world, the World Bank forecast Tuesday.

Citing “a substantial rise in trade barriers’’ but without mentioning Trump by name, the 189-country lender predicted that the U.S. economy – the world’s largest – would grow half as fast (1.4%) this year as it did in 2024 (2.8%). That marked a downgrade from the 2.3% U.S. growth it had forecast back for 2025 back in January.

The bank also lopped 0.4 percentage points off its forecast for global growth this year. It now expects the world economy to expand just 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024.

In a forward to the latest version of the twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill wrote that the global economy has missed its chance for the “soft landing’’ — slowing enough to tame inflation without generating serious pain — it appeared headed for just six months ago. “The world economy today is once more running into turbulence,” Gill wrote. “Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep.’’

America’s economic prospects have been clouded by Trump’s erratic and aggressive trade policies, including 10% taxes — tariffs — on imports from almost every country in the world. These levies drive up costs in the U.S. and invite retaliation from other countries.

The Chinese economy is forecast to see growth slow from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% this year and 4% next. The world’s second-largest economy has been hobbled by the tariffs that Trump has imposed on its exports, by the collapse of its real estate market and by an aging workforce.

The World Bank expects the 20 European countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow just 0.7% this year, down from an already lackluster 0.9% in 2024. Trump’s tariffs are expected to hurt European exports. And the unpredictable way he rolls them out — announcing them, suspending them, coming up with new ones — has created uncertainty that discourages business investment.

India is once again expected to the be world’s fastest-growing major economy, expanding at a 6.3% clip this year. But that’s down from 6.5% in 2024 and from the 6.7% the bank had forecast for 2025 in January. In Japan, economic growth is expected to accelerate this year – but only from 0.2% in 2024 to a sluggish 0.7% this year, well short of the 1.2% the World Bank had forecast in January.

The World Bank seeks to reduce poverty and boost living standards by providing grants and low-rate loans to poor economies.

Another multinational organization that seeks to promote global prosperity — the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — last week downgraded its forecast for the U.S. and global economies.