World Bank Lifts Kenya's Growth Forecast On Construction Sector Optimism

Economic

Summary:

The World Bank lifted Kenya's economic growth forecast for this year to almost 5% on Monday, citing a pick up in the construction sector in East Africa's largest economy.

Some of Kenya's main industries like construction suffered last year, partly as concerns mounted about the government's finances, but the trend has begun to reverse, the development lender said.

"Signs of recovery are emerging," a new report on Kenya's economy said, adding that the rebound in construction in the first half of 2025 had offset a slowdown in manufacturing.

The result is that the economy is now projected to grow by 4.9% this year, up from the World Bank's May forecast of 4.5%, and maintain that rate of growth over the next two years.

Risks to the outlook stem from international trade uncertainty, including the expiry of a U.S. trade deal with the region, and ongoing fiscal consolidation that could curb government spending, the report said.

Government officials say Kenya's economic expansion has also been negatively affected by a heavy public debt burden characterised by high annual repayments that have absorbed much of its revenue.

The government has turned to measures like loans securitised on a motorists' road maintenance levy on petrol prices to raise funds to pay road contractors who had abandoned sites last year due to lack of payment.

It is also in talks with the International Monetary Fund to secure a new financial support programme. Differences remain, however, including over whether the securitised borrowing should be classified as government debt or not.

Monday's World Bank report laid out a set of reforms the government should carry out to boost competition and support investment and economic growth.

Barriers to competition include the presence of more than 200 state owned firms that benefit from undue advantages, distorting competition, and restrictions on foreign investments, it said.

"There is significant room to make Kenya's regulatory framework less restrictive to competition," the lender said.

Source: TradingView

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Justin

Economic

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

· US and Ukraine draft refined peace framework in Geneva talks

· Trump's peace plan criticized as favoring Russia, faces opposition

· European allies propose counter-plan with US security guarantee for Ukraine

The United States and Ukraine were set to continue work on Monday on a plan to end the war with Russia after agreeing to modify an earlier proposal that was widely seen as too favorable to Moscow.

The two sides said in a joint statement they had drafted a "refined peace framework" after talks in Geneva on Sunday, although they did not provide specifics.

The White House separately said the Ukrainian delegation had told them it "reflects their national interests" and "addresses their core strategic requirements," although Kyiv did not issue a statement of its own.

It was not clear how the updated plan would handle a host of issues, including how to guarantee Ukraine's security against ongoing threats from Russia. The United States and Ukraine said they would continue "intensive work" ahead of a Thursday deadline, although U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who led the American delegation during the talks, was flying back to Washington late on Sunday.

U.S. President Donald Trump has kept up the pressure on Ukraine to reach a deal. On Sunday, he said Ukraine had shown "zero gratitude" for American efforts over the war, prompting Ukrainian officials to emphasize their thanks for Trump's support.

Trump previously set a Thursday deadline for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to accept a peace plan, but Rubio said on Sunday that deadline might not be set in stone.

Zelenskiy could travel to the United States as soon as this week to discuss the most sensitive aspects of the plan with Trump, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The initial 28-point proposal put forth by the United States last week called on Ukraine to cede territory, accept limits on its military and abandon its ambitions to join NATO. Those terms would amount to capitulation for many Ukrainians after nearly four years of fighting in Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II.

The original plan came as a surprise to U.S. officials across the administration, and two sources said it was crafted at an October meeting in Miami that included special envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian envoy who is under U.S. sanctions.

EUROPEAN NATIONS ISSUE COUNTER-PROPOSAL

Democratic lawmakers have criticized it as essentially a Russian wish list, but Rubio has insisted that Washington authored the plan with input from both sides in the war.

European allies said they were not involved in crafting the original plan, and they released a counter-proposal on Sunday that would ease some of the proposed territorial concessions and include a NATO-style security guarantee from the United States for Ukraine if it is attacked.

The talks come as Russia has slowly gained ground in some regions, while Ukraine's power and gas facilities have been pummeled by drone and missile attacks, leaving millions of people without water, heating and power for hours each day.

Zelenskiy has also been under pressure at home, as a major corruption scandal has ensnared some of his ministers, stirring fresh anger at pervasive graft. That has complicated the country's efforts to secure funding to keep its economy afloat.

Kyiv had taken heart in recent weeks after the United States tightened on Russia's oil sector, the main source of funding for the war, while its own long-range drone and missile strikes have caused considerable damage to the industry.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Market Balances Fed Rate Cut Expectations As Gold Holds Firm

Gold prices remained stable in early Monday trading across Asia, reflecting a market cautiously assessing the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. The commodity has entered a holding pattern, driven by a blend of dovish remarks from influential Fed officials and a lack of fresh economic data due to the recent U.S. government shutdown.

On Friday, gold pared earlier losses after New York Fed President John Williams suggested there is room for a near-term cut in borrowing costs. His comment stood in contrast to the more guarded tone from other Federal Reserve officials, revealing a policy divide that has left investors guessing. Despite Williams' supportive remarks, gold ended Friday’s session slightly lower, showing that market confidence remains tentative.

Economic Data Vacuum Keeps Traders Cautious

The 43-day U.S. government shutdown has delayed several key data releases that typically inform interest rate expectations. Crucial figures such as September retail sales and producer price data due Tuesday, and weekly jobless claims on Wednesday are now expected to provide clearer insight into the current health of the economy. In the absence of this data, market sentiment remains speculative.

Fed fund futures currently reflect a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. This aligns with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may take action to counteract softening labor conditions and address persistent macroeconomic headwinds, particularly with inflationary pressures showing signs of moderation.

Technical Pause After Record Highs

From a price trend perspective, gold has entered a consolidation phase following its meteoric rise to an all-time high above $4,380 per ounce on October 20. As of Monday morning in Singapore, spot gold was quoted at $4,064.32 per ounce, largely unchanged, after losing 0.3% in the previous session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.1%, slightly reducing gold’s upside due to their inverse correlation.

Despite the current plateau, gold remains one of the top-performing assets in 2025, gaining approximately 55% year-to-date. This performance has been largely supported by geopolitical instability, ongoing trade tensions, and worsening fiscal balances in key economies factors that have historically driven flight-to-safety behavior and enhanced the appeal of bullion.

Gold’s Sensitivity to Monetary Signals

The link between rate expectations and gold prices is causal rather than merely correlated. Lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making them more attractive relative to interest-bearing instruments. Thus, dovish Fed commentary particularly from a central figure like John Williams has a direct impact on bullion sentiment.

However, this causal influence is currently diluted by data uncertainty. Without timely inflation or employment reports, markets cannot fully validate Fed signals, which introduces a feedback gap and suppresses stronger directional moves in gold.

Awaiting Clarity in a Foggy Macro Landscape

Going forward, the short-term trajectory of gold will depend heavily on this week’s economic releases and any further policy hints from Fed officials. If upcoming data confirms economic cooling or rising joblessness, the likelihood of a December rate cut will increase, strengthening gold's upside momentum.

At the same time, traders remain wary of premature pricing, especially given that inflation data like CPI will only arrive after the Fed’s December meeting. This timing gap could either force the Fed to act preemptively or maintain a holding stance, both scenarios carrying implications for gold.

Gold’s stability at current elevated levels reflects a market in transition: driven by policy speculation, constrained by delayed data, and bolstered by systemic risk factors. As investors await a clearer picture from upcoming U.S. economic indicators, the metal’s next move hinges on whether the Fed reinforces or retreats from its softening stance. In the meantime, gold remains a barometer of uncertainty both economic and geopolitical.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Cryptocurrency

· Germany sold Bitcoin earlier this year at higher prices

· A 35% BTC dip would allow a repurchase at original rates

· Strategic timing could benefit Germany's crypto holdings

Earlier this year, the German government made headlines for selling off a large chunk of its Bitcoin holdings. Now, the possibility of a price correction in the crypto market may give Germany a rare chance to buy those coins back — and at the exact prices they sold them for.

Why a 35% Drop Matters

Bitcoin has seen a strong rally throughout the year, pushing prices well above where they were when Germany decided to sell. But if the market were to fall by roughly 35%, analysts point out that this would bring the BTC price back in line with the original sale levels from Germany's liquidation move.

This means the government could theoretically buy back the same amount of Bitcoin it sold — without financial loss — and possibly even increase its holdings if conditions align.

A Strategic Play for Crypto Reserves?

The potential for a buyback raises important questions about whether Germany timed its initial sale as part of a longer-term strategy. With ongoing global discussions around crypto regulation, central bank digital currencies, and institutional adoption of Bitcoin, countries may begin treating digital assets like strategic reserves.

If Bitcoin were to correct significantly, Germany could be among the first major economies to take advantage of a discount window. Whether this will actually happen remains uncertain, but the idea alone reflects the evolving view of digital assets in national finance strategies.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Economic

Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television programme on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday.

"Japan has excessive foreign reserves, so it can become active in tapping them to conduct (yen-buying) intervention," said Aida, an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

"It can therefore be active in mitigating the side effect of a weak yen with intervention."

Aida advocates stimulating the economy by keeping interest rates low and boosting spending even at the cost of ramping up debt issuance.

In an interview with Reuters on October 9, Aida had said the yen's weakness benefits the economy and the hit to households from rising import costs can be offset by aggressive spending.

While a weak yen boosts exports, it has become a headache for Japanese policymakers fretting about the inflationary impact such as pushing up import costs.

The yen is down around 6% since Takaichi was elected leader of her party last month due to market concern that her administration could issue more debt to fund a big spending package, casting doubt on Japan's grip on finances.

As the yen fell to 10-month lows against the dollar, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama threatened last week to intervene, in a shift away from the administration's initially sanguine approach over the demerits of a weak currency.

Aida, who is chief Japan economist at Credit Agricole, sits on Takaichi's advisory panel which reviews and implements the administration's growth strategy.

Source: Reuters

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Winkelmann

Forex

Cryptocurrency

Economic

Tokenized digital assets, such as stablecoins, and the use of artificial intelligence took center stage at the annual Singapore FinTech Festival held in the city-state, with companies showcasing their latest services while regulators called for rule-making to support their healthy development.

"If we look ahead to the next 10 years, two transformative themes commonly come up. They are AI and tokenisation," said Chia Der Jiun, managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), in his speech on Nov. 13, the midpoint of the three-day event.

It featured around 600 exhibitors from financial institutions and fintech companies, attracting over 65,000 visitors.

At the booth of Singapore fintech company StraitsX, an orange juice vending machine was set up, allowing users to easily purchase juice with stablecoins -- which hold value linked to a legal tender -- through a payment app. Users scanned the QR code displayed on the vending machine with their smartphone payment app and chose stablecoins such as the dollar-pegged Tether (USDT) or USD Coin (USDC).

This service was launched in September through a partnership between GrabPay, crypto exchange OKX Singapore and StraitsX, and is already available at some vending machines and stores in the country. Stablecoins used for the purchases are converted from dollar equivalents to StraitsX's Singapore dollar-pegged stablecoin, XSGD, with retailers receiving legal tender in Singapore dollars.

From 2024, StraitsX partnered with GrabPay and Ant Group's platform Alipay+, enabling overseas travelers to use stablecoins for QR code payments in Singapore. StraitsX is further expanding its reach, announcing a partnership with Thailand's Kasikornbank on Nov. 4, with future expansions planned for Taiwan and Japan, according to the company.

"We realized that [stablecoin] has an opportunity to help us really bridge the cross-border use cases across Asia-Pacific," Liu Tianwei, CEO and co-founder of StraitsX, told Nikkei in an interview on the sidelines of the event.

Liu Tianwei, CEO and co-founder of StraitsX, poses during an interview with Nikkei at the Singapore FinTech Festival. (Photo by Fumika Sato)

With the technology, users can use their e-wallets from their home country while traveling abroad. At the same time, cross-border payments and remittances benefit from reduced costs and shorter processing times, according to Liu.

"If you look at it in the past, where there's an overseas acquirer like us that facilitates an Alipay, WeChat Pay or any foreign wallet, typical fees that the merchants have to pay are around 1% to 1.5%," said Liu, adding that settlements would need two to three business days.

With stablecoin, "What it means is they (merchants) pay only 0.5% to 1%, which is like 50% better than what they are doing with the foreign domestic payment," he said. "And they get their settlement on the same day or on the next business day, which is a huge improvement."

Partnerships with apps like Grab and Alipay, which have large user bases, would make it easier to use stablecoins without downloading new apps, thereby driving broader customer adoption. On Nov. 18, StraitsX announced a new partnership with Grab, aimed at developing infrastructure to enable stablecoin payments at GrabPay-affiliated stores across Southeast Asia.

As digital assets become more common, Liu predicts that tokens of real-world assets (RWAs) such as bonds, stocks and mutual funds will increase.

"You're going to see a lot of RWA and financial products that will be denominated in local currency," he said. "They will drive the kind of use cases that will be interesting to a local that already has very strong payment rails."

Chia of the MAS said in his speech that "sound and robust regulation of stablecoins will be critical to underpin their stability," pointing out that regulations are taking shape rapidly across nations. "This is an important start."

In the U.S., the Genius Act stablecoin regulation bill was passed in July. The MAS has also "finalized the features of our stablecoin regulatory regime and will be preparing draft legislation," Chia revealed. "Under our regime, we have given importance to sound reserve backing and redemption reliability."

The other theme, the use of AI, was also a hot topic.

AI use by financial institutions is expanding from improving internal business processes to software development, customer service, market analysis, credit screening and fraud detection. In the future, autonomous AI agents are expected to be used for a series of lending operations and insurance claim processes, from credit screening to approval, according to the event participants.

"If I think about generative AI, that helped a lot of financial institutions to think about moving to this hyper personalized experience for customers," Mark Micallef, managing director of Southeast Asia at Google Cloud, said at the event. He said that many banks are "reimagining customer experience through the lens of that."

Shayan Hazir, HSBC's chief digital officer for Asia (excluding Hong Kong) and MENAT, poses during an interview. (Photo by Fumika Sato)

HSBC, in collaboration with Google Cloud, released the Digital Frontiers 2030 report at the event, which surveyed 2,436 consumers in six Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The personalized banking service most valued by users was "smart budgeting tools" (53%), followed by "investment advice" (48%) and "spending insights" (43%).

Shayan Hazir, HSBC's chief digital officer for Asia (excluding Hong Kong) and MENAT -- which stands for the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey -- emphasized the need to develop solutions that integrate AI with digital assets, quantum and other emerging technologies.

"Technology operates never in silos," he told Nikkei in an interview, saying that AI, digital assets and quantum together form the new tech stack and work in tandem. "(AI) agents will find it easier to execute on a blockchain, on digital assets, on programmable money, than they would for fiat currency. So I think convergence will happen across all aspects," he said.

Meanwhile, during the event, the MAS published the Guidelines for AI Risk Management, which require financial institutions to identify AI risks and manage the entire process from development to operation, based on the scale and risk of AI use.

"As AI adoption in the financial industry grows, governance and safety are essential," Chia said. "In fact, one of the key factors determining the pace of AI use, and the extent of AI autonomy permitted in work processes, is the robustness of guardrails and controls over the AI life cycle. FIs (financial institutions) have told us that they would like more regulatory clarity."

Source: Asia_Nikkei

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Benchmark System Under Threat As China Redefines Copper Trade Dynamics

The global copper industry is entering a pivotal phase as benchmark pricing negotiations face increasing strain. At the core of this instability is China’s expansive grip on copper concentrate supply, which has drastically weakened traditional pricing frameworks such as the annual treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs). These mechanisms, historically set during consensus-based negotiations between miners and Chinese smelters, are now teetering under the weight of China’s industrial growth and structural shifts in raw material availability.

What was once a predictable pricing ritual now faces disruption, with bilateral deals, price caps, floors, and even quarterly arrangements becoming increasingly viable alternatives. Analysts from CRU Group and Mysteel Global note that these developments mark not just temporary deviations, but a structural breakdown of the global benchmark system.

China's Expansion Crowds Out Global Smelters

The core causal factor in this pricing upheaval is China’s aggressive expansion of smelting capacity, even as global mined copper supply struggles to keep pace due to disruptions at major sites like Glencore’s Mount Isa operations. This mismatch has not only pushed spot treatment charges into negative territory where processors effectively pay miners to access material but also led to the closure of smelters outside China.

While Chinese processors suffer from low TC/RCs, they benefit from surging refined copper prices and increased demand for sulfuric acid, a byproduct. As a result, China's refined copper output rose 9.7% year-over-year through October, crowding out non-Chinese players and crushing fee structures across the board.

This trend reflects a causal, not merely correlational, market transformation. China’s ability to secure the lion’s share of global concentrate supply allows it to control not just downstream copper flows but also upstream pricing power, leaving others to absorb the consequences of margin erosion.

Smelter Pushback And Fragmentation Of Pricing Mechanisms

In response, smelters in Japan, South Korea, and Spain have united to protest what they deem punitive TC/RCs and uncompetitive practices. Mitsubishi Materials, one of Japan’s key producers, described current market conditions as “significantly deteriorated,” and JX Advanced Metals announced plans to reduce output by tens of thousands of tons.

This industrial pushback coincides with the Asia Copper Week and World Copper Conference in Shanghai, events that have become symbolic battlegrounds for pricing negotiations. Some miners, like Freeport McMoRan, are now openly reconsidering their participation in the benchmark system, favoring custom contracts that better reflect current market complexities.

Structural Supply Tightness Fuels Long-Term Volatility

Unlike past cycles of supply tension, current shortages stem from structural constraints. Panmure Liberum analysts characterize the 2026 TC/RC negotiation backdrop as “a brutal game of industrial survival.” This year’s spot treatment charges plunged to as low as negative $60 per ton, signaling an unprecedented cost environment.

Furthermore, disparities between term-based and spot-based pricing are growing, weakening the relevance of annual benchmarks. Analysts now question whether Chinese smelters can even lock in sufficient annual volumes or whether the market will splinter into fragmented bilateral relationships.

Strategic Consequences For Global Copper Markets

The collapse of coordinated pricing has deep strategic consequences. As long as Chinese smelters can afford to pay a premium, their dominance will persist. This not only reshapes global pricing architecture but also accelerates a bifurcation of copper trade one shaped by national policy objectives rather than multilateral market rules.

China’s ongoing commitments to economic growth and infrastructure expansion suggest continued capacity ramp-ups, reinforcing its upstream leverage. This momentum makes a reversal of current dynamics unlikely, leaving international smelters exposed to consolidation or closure unless alternative supply routes and pricing agreements are secured.

Copper’s 2026 pricing cycle may mark a turning point in the metal’s global trade regime. What began as a supply squeeze has evolved into a structural rebalancing of market power, with China emerging as the decisive actor in both volume and pricing control. As benchmark systems fragment and bilateral negotiations rise, the copper industry faces not just a pricing challenge but a foundational reckoning over how value is distributed across the global supply chain. Whether miners, smelters, and governments can adapt to this new landscape will determine the sector’s future resilience.