White House Says Average Tax Refunds May Be $1,000 Higher

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, once considered a leading candidate for Federal Reserve chair, said Friday he is content in his current role and fully supports President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh for the top job.

Speaking to CNBC, Hassett expressed no disappointment, stating he understands and backs the president's choice.

"I've got my dream job," Hassett said in a "Squawk on the Street" interview. "I think President Trump made a great choice, and I'm really thrilled and humbled by all the kind things he said about me."

A Key Player Staying at the White House

President Trump explained his decision in a Truth Social post, noting that Hassett was too valuable to move from his current position.

"He is doing such an outstanding job working with me and my team at the White House, that I just didn't want to let him go," Trump wrote. "Kevin is indescribably good so, as the expression goes, 'if you can't do better, don't try to fix it!'"

Hassett echoed this sentiment, highlighting the effectiveness of the current economic team, which includes himself, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. "We've been hitting on all cylinders, and it's a really bad time to change teams," he said. "You don't change quarterbacks when you're way ahead."

He affirmed the administration's commitment to the nominee, adding, "I really have high regard for Kevin, and we're going to put every effort that we have into getting him confirmed as soon as possible, so that we can get the Fed moving in the right direction."

The End of a Lengthy Selection Process

The nomination of Warsh concludes a selection drama that began in the summer of 2025 and followed years of President Trump's criticism of the central bank's policies under current Chair Jerome Powell.

The field of potential successors initially included 11 names. For a period, the race was widely seen as a contest between "the two Kevins"—Warsh and Hassett. At one point, prediction markets even favored BlackRock executive Rick Rieder for the position.

Ongoing Criticism of Fed Interest Rate Policy

The change in leadership aligns with the administration's long-held view that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates too high. During his CNBC interview, Hassett reiterated this critique, calling the Fed's decision earlier this week to hold its benchmark interest rate steady a "mistake."

Hassett also addressed potential political hurdles for Warsh's nomination. Senator Thom Tills (R-S.C.) repeated a threat on Friday to hold up any Fed nominees while the Justice Department continues its investigation into the renovation of the central bank’s Washington, D.C. headquarters.

Despite this, Hassett projected confidence. "The White House is highly, highly confident that Kevin Warsh is a great nominee and that he should be confirmed as soon as possible," he stated. "Every single resource we have at our disposal is behind him."

If confirmed, Warsh is set to fill the seat of Governor Stephen Miran, whose term ends Saturday. He would then assume the role of Fed chair in May, following the expiration of Jerome Powell's term.

The UN's nuclear watchdog held an emergency meeting on Friday to address growing fears over the safety of Ukraine's nuclear facilities, as Russian attacks continue to cripple the country's power grid.

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), opened the board meeting by stating that the war in Ukraine "continues to pose the world's biggest threat to nuclear safety." The primary concern is that a loss of electricity supply to nuclear plants could lead to a catastrophic disaster.

UN Watchdog Convenes Emergency Meeting

The four-hour extraordinary session in Vienna was prompted by a letter from 13 countries, led by the Netherlands, expressing "growing concern about the severity and urgency of nuclear safety risks."

Ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian ambassador Yurii Vitrenko emphasized that it was "high time" for the IAEA board to confront the situation. In response, an IAEA expert mission is currently assessing 10 Ukrainian substations and power plants considered "crucial to nuclear safety," with its work expected to conclude next month.

Power Grid Attacks Threaten Nuclear Plant Stability

Since its 2022 invasion, Russia has systematically targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure. These attacks have repeatedly jeopardized the external power needed by nuclear plants to run essential cooling and security systems, even when their reactors are shut down.

The Zaporizhzhia plant, Europe's largest nuclear facility, has been under Russian occupation since March 2022 and has been a constant source of international alarm. Its six reactors are currently shut down, but the site still requires a stable electricity connection to prevent overheating.

Earlier this month, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a localized ceasefire to permit repairs on the last remaining backup power line to the Zaporizhzhia plant, which had been disconnected by military activity in early January. Last week, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant also temporarily lost all of its off-site power, further highlighting the system's vulnerability.

Russia and Ukraine Clash at IAEA Forum

The diplomatic tensions were evident at the meeting. While Ukraine urged for more decisive action, Russian Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov dismissed the gathering as "absolutely politically motivated," claiming there was "no real need to hold such a meeting."

Both Moscow and Kyiv have consistently accused each other of risking a nuclear catastrophe by launching attacks near the Zaporizhzhia site.

Silver Technical Analysis

Silver daily chart.

The silver market initially tried to rally but then fell rather significantly during the early hours here on Friday, even breaking below the $100 level to reach near $95, an area that is round number, and seems to have been attractive for buyers.

We have turned around and recovered since then, but this to me looks a lot like serious problems just waiting to happen. It does make sense, after all; the silver market has been out of control for a while. Sooner or later, you see some type of deep correction or panic move. I have been warning about this for a couple of weeks now, and I suspect there are quite a few retail traders out there who have just blown their accounts.

Position Sizing and Market Volatility

This is the behavior of a market that is out of control. While you can make massive profits rather quickly, you can also get eliminated from the game just as quickly, and this is where position sizing matters.

The question now is whether or not we can stay above the $100 level on Friday at the close. That for me will tell you most of what you need to know about whether or not the correction is over. This is not a market you want to jump into with a huge position with this type of behavior at the moment. Quite frankly, this could be the beginning of something rather ugly. I would wait at this point until after the market closes to get a read on what is really going on.

Source: FX Empire

Silver - daily

Silver - 4 hour

Silver - 1 hour

Source: investinglive

Germany's unemployment level has crossed the 3 million mark for the first time in 12 years, triggering an urgent response from Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has declared an economic recovery his top priority for the year.

The bleak labor market data contrasts with other indicators showing unexpected resilience in Europe's largest economy, including better-than-forecast GDP growth in the fourth quarter and a minor uptick in inflation.

Labor Market Shows Significant Strain

Data released by the Labour Office on Friday revealed a stark picture of the German jobs market, which is lagging behind the broader economy.

• Total Unemployed: The number of people out of work rose by 177,000 in January compared to December, bringing the total to 3.08 million.

• Unemployment Rate: In seasonally unadjusted terms, the unemployment rate climbed 0.4 percentage points to 6.6%.

"The rise in the number of unemployed to more than three million is an alarm signal," Chancellor Merz stated on the social media platform X. "The economic upturn must be this year's central priority."

Labour Office director Andrea Nahles noted the weakness, saying, "There is currently little momentum in the labour market." She explained that the sharp increase in January was partly due to seasonal factors.

When adjusted for seasonal trends, the situation appears more stable. The number of unemployed was unchanged from December at 2.976 million, keeping the adjusted jobless rate steady at 6.3%. This was better than the 4,000-person increase analysts had predicted.

A Mixed Bag: GDP Growth and Inflation Data

While the jobs report raised concerns, other data offered a more positive outlook. The German economy demonstrated greater resilience than anticipated after two years of a mild contraction.

German gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, outperforming the consensus forecast of 0.2%. The Statistics Office also confirmed its initial estimate of 0.2% growth for the full year.

Meanwhile, inflation data showed a slight acceleration in January, with the year-on-year rate hitting 2.1%. This was just above the 2.0% forecast and the European Central Bank's target. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also rose to 2.5% from 2.4% in December.

Government Vows Action Amid Calls for Deeper Reform

Chancellor Merz has already committed to reviving the economy through increased spending on infrastructure and defense, but these measures are taking longer than anticipated to produce tangible results.

The government lowered its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on Wednesday, acknowledging that its fiscal policies have not taken effect as quickly as hoped.

This has drawn skepticism from economists. Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank, said the government's fiscal package is "unlikely to fall on fertile ground," as most companies lack confidence in its economic policy.

Economy Minister Katherina Reiche argued that Germany must pivot to new "growth engines," stating that its traditional export strengths "no longer carry our growth."

Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, warned against complacency and called for structural reforms. "The biggest domestic risk remains any sudden shift from national depression to national complacency," he said.

Why the ECB Might Not Worry About Inflation

Economists suggest the modest rise in German inflation is unlikely to concern the ECB.

"The small pick-up in German inflation in January won't worry the ECB too much as it was driven mainly by an increase in food inflation," explained Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics. She added that officials would be encouraged by a significant easing in services inflation.

Commerzbank's senior economist Ralph Solveen also noted that while core inflation ticked up, it remains below the roughly 2.75% level seen in the autumn.

This German data precedes the broader euro zone inflation reading, which economists forecast will slow to 1.7% in January from 1.9% in December.

A growing global oil surplus is expected to keep prices anchored near the $60 per barrel mark this year, overpowering the market impact of geopolitical flare-ups, according to a recent Reuters monthly poll.

Analyst Forecasts Signal a Subdued Market

The January survey, which included 31 economists and analysts, projects that Brent Crude will average $62.02 per barrel in 2026. This represents a slight increase from the December forecast of $61.27.

For the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude, the consensus forecast is an average of $58.72 per barrel, also a modest rise from the previous month's estimate of $58.15.

Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Short-Term Spike

Despite these bearish long-term forecasts, current market prices are telling a different story. Early on Friday, Brent crude was trading at $70.50, while WTI surpassed the $65 mark to trade at $65.17.

This recent price surge is linked to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. The market reacted after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that a "massive armada" of U.S. Navy ships, led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, was en route to the Persian Gulf.

"Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary," President Trump stated. In response, Iran asserted that its military is prepared to react "immediately and powerfully" to any act of aggression.

Why Fundamentals Outweigh Political Noise

Even with the heated rhetoric, analysts believe market fundamentals—specifically, oversupply—will ultimately dictate the price trajectory. The Reuters poll suggests this supply glut will offset the risk premium from political tensions.

Norbert Ruecker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer, told Reuters that geopolitical events are creating temporary volatility but won't change the underlying market balance. "Geopolitics brings lots of noise but neither the events in Venezuela nor Iran should ultimately alter the big picture," he said. "The oil market appears to be in a lasting surplus."

Key Market Drivers to Watch in 2026

Looking ahead, analysts identified three critical factors that will shape oil prices throughout the year:

• Oil Demand Trends: Consumption patterns, particularly in China, will be closely watched.

• OPEC+ Supply Policy: Decisions made by the producer group will have a direct impact on global supply.

• U.S. Trade Policies: Broader trade dynamics will influence global economic health and energy demand.