What's The Inflation Rate In October? We May Never Know

Economic

Summary:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to skip a month of data collection for the Consumer Price Index for the first time in its history because of the ongoing government shutdown.

Inflation is squeezing household budgets, but we may not know by how much.

Key Takeaways

The White House said October's inflation report is unlikely to be released.
The ongoing government shutdown has closed the government's statistical agencies, leaving critical economic data unreported.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to skip a month of data collection for the Consumer Price Index for the first time in its history because of the ongoing government shutdown.The Consumer Price Index, a widely watched gauge of inflation, is unlikely to be released for October, the White House said on Friday. The CPI is based on prices collected by an army of surveyors, who are currently on furlough and not working because of the government shutdown."Because surveyors cannot deploy to the field, the White House has learned there will likely NOT be an inflation release next month for the first time in history—depriving policymakers and markets of critical data and risking economic calamity," the White House said in a statement.

What This Means For The Economy

Investors, government officials, and businesspeople rely on government data to assess the health of the economy. Those decision makers could be left in the dark about important economic trends as the government shutdown drags on.

If October's data collection is skipped, it would create a remarkable gap in a dataset that spans more than a century. The BLS first published data for a national Consumer Price Index in 1921, including estimates for the national inflation rate dating back to 1913.The CPI report is one of many pieces of economic data going unreported as the government's statistical agencies remain closed. Republican and Democratic lawmakers have voted down one another's bills to fund the government amid a dispute over health care policy. The White House statement deepened concerns among economists that the government will have to skip many of the monthly economic reports scheduled for release in October.

The ongoing data blackout is especially problematic for officials at the Federal Reserve who set the nation's monetary policy with the aim of keeping employment high and inflation low. Although private companies, universities, and other groups produce their own measures of the economy's health, the federal government's statistics, based on extensive surveys, are considered by economists to be the most comprehensive and reliable.The White House announcement occurred shortly after the BLS released its CPI report for September, showing price increases accelerated less than forecasters anticipated, although remaining well above the Federal Reserve's target of a 2% annual rate. The BLS brought back some employees during the shutdown to publish the September CPI report since it is used to calculate Social Security annual cost-of-living adjustments to benefits.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

President Donald Trump is rattling his saber against Colombian President Gustavo Petro to punish him for accusing the US government of murdering Venezuelan fishermen. Trump has boasted of the killings by the US military but claims all the targets were drug smugglers. He has threatened to suspend all US government handouts for the Colombian government. Trump warned Petro that he "better close up" cocaine production "or the United States will close them up for him, and it won't be done nicely."Tapping his own psychiatric expertise, Trump proclaimed that Colombia has "the worst president they've ever had – a lunatic with serious mental problems." Is anyone in the Trump White House aware of the long history of U.S. failure in that part of the world? In 1989, President George H.W. Bush warned Colombian drug dealers that they were "no match for an angry America." But Colombia remains the world's largest cocaine producer despite billions of dollars of US government anti-drug aid to the Colombian government.

The Bill Clinton administration made Colombia its top target in its international war on drugs. Clinton drug warriors deluged the Colombian government with U.S. tax dollars as they literally deluged Colombia with toxic spray. The New York Times reported that U.S.-financed planes repeatedly sprayed pesticides onto schoolchildren, making many of them ill. Colombian environmental minister Juan Mayr publicly declared last year that the crop spraying program has been a failure and warned, "We can't permanently fumigate the country."

As I wrote in The American Spectator in 1999:

"Colombia has received almost a billion dollars of anti-narcotics aid since 1990. Coca production is skyrocketing–doubling since 1996 and, according to the General Accounting Office, expected to increase another 50 percent in the next two years. Colombia now supplies roughly three-quarters of the heroin and almost all the cocaine consumed in the United States."

The Clinton administration responded to the failure of its drug war by championing a far more destructive solution. As I noted in the Las Vegas Review Journal, Clinton officials "intensely pressured the Colombian government to allow a much more toxic chemical (tebuthiuron, known as SPIKE 20) to be dumped across the land, which would permit the planes to fly at much higher altitudes, Kosovo-style. Environmentalists warned that SPIKE 20 could poison ground water and permanently ruin the land for agriculture. Even as the Clinton administration decreed clean-air standards severely curtailing Americans' exposure to chemicals that pose little or no health threat, it sought to deluge a foreign land with a toxic chemical in a way that would be forbidden in the United States." Dow Chemical, the product's inventor, protested strongly that SPIKE 20 was not safe for use in the Andes and surrounding areas. Didn't matter.

Colombia at that time was wracked by a civil war—a fight between a corrupt government and corrupt leftist guerillas. The Dallas Morning News noted reports that "tens of millions of taxpayer dollars are going into covert operations across southern Colombia employing, among others, U.S. Special Forces, former Green Berets, Gulf War veterans and even a few figures from covert CIA-backed operations in Central America during the 1980's."Like Trump's attacks on Venezuelan boats, Clinton's aid for Colombia was lawless. Congress in 1996 prohibited any U.S. foreign aid to military organizations with a penchant for atrocities. The Colombian army had a poor human rights record but almost nobody in Congress gave a damn. Democrats winked at illicit conduct by their president and Republicans didn't care about any crimes committed in the name of eradicating drugs.

In a Baltimore Sun piece in June 2000, I observed, "The war on drugs is as unwinnable in Colombia as it is in the hills of Kentucky, where natives continue growing marijuana despite endless raids by police and the National Guard." I whacked the Clinton administration for "bumbling into a civil war." Colombia's ambassador to the United States vehemently attacked my piece, claiming that the Clinton administration aid package was carefully targeted to "strengthen law enforcement institutions and help protect human rights." Alas, U.S. aid was diverted to "carry out spying operations and smear campaigns against Supreme Court justices," The Washington Post reported, crippling the nation's judiciary.

At the same time that the Clinton administration was sacrificing the health of Colombian children in its quixotic anti-drug crusade, top U.S. antidrug officials made a mockery of the entire mission. Laurie Hiett, the wife of Colonel James Hiett, the top American military commander in Colombia, exploited U.S. embassy diplomatic pouches to ship fifteen pounds of heroin and cocaine to New York. She pocketed tens of thousands of dollars in narcotic profits.After she was caught and convicted, she received far more lenient treatment than most drug offenders—only five years in prison, "the same sentence a small-time dealer would get if he were caught with five grams of crack in his pocket," I noted in Playboy. Her husband—ridiculed as the "Coke Colonel" in the New York Post—received only six months in prison for laundering drug proceeds and concealing his wife's crimes.

Eric Sterling, president of the Criminal Justice Policy Foundation, explained the double standard:

"If Colonel Hiett had been Mr. Hiett, he would have been charged with conspiracy to traffic in more than a kilogram of heroin, with a mandatory minimum sentence of 10 years. He would possibly face life without parole…Mr. Hiett would, at a minimum, have been charged with aiding and abetting his wife's money laundering, facing 20 years."Most drug warriors pretended either that the Hiett case had never happened or that it didn't matter. Drug Czar Barry McCaffrey shrugged off the scandal:"What a tragedy…There are 3.6 million chronic cocaine addicts in America and every one of them produces that kind of criminality and tragedy."

"But when any of those 3.6 million is caught, they don't get coddled," as I wrote in Playboy.Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election did not entitle him to micromanage every acre of land in this hemisphere. The U.S. war on drugs has dismally failed in Colombia for more than a third of a century. There is no excuse for Trump or any other U.S. government official to burn American tax dollars by perpetuating Colombian pratfalls.

Source: Zero Hedge

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week as part of his trip to Asia, as the world’s top two economies seek to dial down tensions in search for a trade deal that has so far been elusive.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday that Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart on Oct. 30 on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, Summit.

“I think we are going to come out very well and everyone’s going to be very happy,” Trump said later on Thursday about his panned meeting with Xi.

South Korean presidential security advisor Wi Sung-lac confirmed Thursday the state visits by Trump and Xi during the APEC summit, although China has not officially made a statement about it.

It will be the first in-person meeting between the two heads of states since Trump returned to the office in January. The leaders, who have had at least two phone calls this year, last met in 2019 during Trump’s first presidential term.

The high-stakes meeting comes as a delicate trade detente between the economic superpowers nears its expiration on Nov. 10 if they fail to agree on another extension. Trump has also set Nov. 1 as the deadline for additional 100% tariffs announced earlier this month.

The trade truce has been threatened in recent weeks by a fresh wave of restrictive measures, ranging from hefty port fees on each other’s vessels, expanded export controls on technology and rare earth minerals.

The two economic powers have also tussled over lingering issues including tariffs, agricultural purchases, fentanyl flows, and geopolitical flashpoints such as Taiwan.

“This will be a high-risk, high-reward leaders’ meeting,” said Han Shen Lin, China director of global consultancy firm The Asia Group. “Both sides will try to hit the ‘reset’ button” for a relationship rattled by the latest round of tit-for-tat restrictions, he added, while avoiding “any big headline concession.”

The two countries may agree to resume the ongoing trade talks, rather than a sweeping trade deal, Han said, stressing that deeper structural disputes have not been resolved and “may never be.”

Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that rare earths, fentanyl, soybeans and Taiwan were among U.S.′ top issues for discussion with China. A senior Taiwanese foreign affairs official said Tuesday that Taipei is in close contact with Washington and will monitor closely the Trump-Xi meeting.

In a press briefing on China’s economic development plan on Friday, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao stressed that the U.S. and China could still find ways to talk and work together, rather than slide toward a decoupling.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. did not immediately respond to a request for confirmation on Xi’s trip to South Korea.

Chinese commerce ministry said Thursday that a delegation led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, also the country’s top trade negotiator, will meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Malaysia this week to discuss trade and economic issues.

De-escalation in sight?

Tensions between Washington and Beijing have flared up again in recent weeks, with both sides seeking to amass leverage ahead of critical negotiations.

Yet the confirmation of a Trump-Xi meeting signals an intent to de-escalate tensions and put negotiations back on track, analysts said.

The fact that the meeting will happen suggests China will commit to making certain concessions, such as agricultural purchase or investment in America, and prioritize rare earth approval for the U.S., said Dan Wang, China director at political consultancy Eurasia Group, while Washington could consider relaxing tech curbs on China.

Beijing in early October dramatically expanded its restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and related technologies, and Trump retaliated with threats of an additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Bessent blasted China’s move as an attempt at weakening the global economy and wanting to “pull everyone else down with them.”

The Trump administration has also been considering limiting exports of large swaths of products built with American software to China, and reportedly plans to launch a trade investigation into China’s failure to uphold the terms of a trade deal signed in Trump’s first term.

New York Times reported Thursday that the investigation could be announced as soon as Friday, paving the way for more tariffs on Chinese goods.

Earlier this month, the U.S. president had floated the possibility of scrapping his meeting with Xi amid anger over Beijing’s widened export controls on rare earth minerals. But in recent days Trump has softened his rhetoric, touting his “great relationship” with Xi, saying he expected the talks to deliver a “good deal” on trade.

The president said Wednesday that he has a “long” meeting scheduled with Xi during the upcoming trip to South Korea, where he expects to reach a deal with the Chinese leader over soybean purchases and limits on nuclear weapons.

Facing sweeping U.S. tech restrictions in recent years, China has pledged to deepen its self-reliance on technology over the coming five years, the ruling Communist Party said in a new economic blueprint released Thursday.

In the press briefing Friday, Chinese leaders pointed to the complex external challenges, underscoring Beijing’s drive to reduce reliance on the U.S. while advancing its own technological ambitions.

While both sides retain significant leverage, Beijing appears “more willing to walk away from a deal that does not satisfy its objectives,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at advisory firm Teneo, while Trump might want to avoid enforcing the 100% tariff threat.

Despite the recent escalation, the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting will be key to restoring “a measure of calm to the bilateral relations” and set the stage for a final negotiating push toward a trade deal in early 2026, Wildau added.

Trump is scheduled to travel to Tokyo on Oct. 27 for a meeting with Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s new prime minister, before heading to South Korea.

Source: cnbc

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Commodity

The gold market is displaying early indications of recovery after experiencing its most severe single-day correction in over eighteen years. Both spot gold and December Comex futures formed doji candlestick patterns on their daily charts Wednesday, suggesting a possible inflection point following this week's dramatic price action.

The recent volatility began Monday when spot gold reached an unprecedented high of $4,381 per ounce, while December Comex futures peaked at $4,398. However, the euphoria proved short-lived. By Tuesday, both markets had plunged more than $230 ($235 in futures contracts), marking the steepest one-day decline since 2013. Despite the severity of this correction, the pullback appears technically sound given gold's remarkable 57% year-to-date appreciation.

This represented the first substantial retracement since gold initiated its ascent from approximately $3,358 just two months prior. The subsequent formation of a doji candle on Wednesday suggests the underlying bullish momentum remains intact. Technical analysts classify Wednesday's pattern as a long-legged doji, characterized by an exceptionally elongated lower wick approximately five times the length of its body. This extended lower shadow indicates strong buying interest at lower price levels, with traders aggressively entering and re-entering positions, ultimately pushing gold to close $95 above its intraday low.

While any doji formation can signal consolidation or a directional pivot—and the candle's color bears little significance—current market action increasingly points toward the latter interpretation.

As of this writing, gold futures have advanced $26.60, or 0.65%, to trade at $4,132. Today's positive price action reinforces the hypothesis that a pivot is materializing and that gold's record-breaking trajectory may resume.

Gold markets signal potential rebound following historic single-day decline_1

The formation of today's green candle also extends a notable pattern: gold has consistently avoided consecutive down days throughout its recent rally, instead establishing a base after each pullback before advancing to new highs—a pattern that appears to be repeating itself presently.

Looking ahead, the primary economic catalyst with potential to materially impact gold prices is Friday's Consumer Price Index report, which has been postponed due to the ongoing government shutdown. Market consensus anticipates annual inflation for last month at 3.1%, a figure already reflected in current pricing. Should the data reveal substantially higher inflation than expected, it could materially alter market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of future Federal Reserve rate cuts—a factor that has been among the most significant drivers of gold's impressive rally this year.

Source: kitco

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Olivia Brooks

Economic

Stocks

The U.S. dollar was almost flat on Friday after dipping following fresh inflation data that showed that U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in September, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again next week.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% last month and 3.0% in the 12 months through September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI increasing by 0.4% for the month and rising 3.1% year-on-year.The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here.The U.S. dollar index was last down 0.003% at 98.934, after earlier falling as much as 0.2%.

"The headline was a bit softer than expected," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets. "The dollar was sold on the news, even though the market had nearly 100% confidence before the report that the Fed would cut rates, not only next week, but in December."

The CPI report was published despite an economic data blackout because of the government shutdown. The figure, used by the Social Security Administration to calculate its cost-of-living adjustment for millions of retirees and other benefits recipients, was initially due on October 15.

The euro rose and was last up 0.06% at $1.163. Business activity in the euro zone grew at a faster pace than expected in October, led by the bloc's services industry, a survey showed on Friday.

Trade war worries were back on the agenda after U.S. President Donald Trump said all trade talks with Canada were terminated over an advertisement by the province of Ontario which featured a recording of former President Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about tariffs.

The Canadian dollar was last weaker at 1.403 per U.S. dollar, but market reaction overall was fairly subdued. Investors' focus remained on the looming meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week.

The proposed Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea has spurred some expectations of a resolution to the on-again-off-again trade war between the world's top two economies.

"I think expectations are quite high for the Trump-Xi meeting, with the upside risk of a significant de-escalation following the face-to-face meeting," said Ben Bennett, head of investment strategy for Asia at L&G Asset Management.

New U.S. sanctions on Russian suppliers Rosneft (ROSN.MM), and Lukoil (LKOH.MM), over Russia's war in Ukraine pushed up oil prices.

That weighed on currencies tied to oil imports, including the yen. The yen's performance is also linked to the policies of Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, widely viewed as a fiscal and monetary dove.

The yen weakened to a two-week low and last fetched 152.87 per U.S. dollar. Data earlier on Friday showed Japan's core consumer prices stayed above the central bank's 2% target, keeping alive expectations of a near-term rate hike.

Takaichi is preparing an economic stimulus package that is likely to exceed last year's $92 billion to help households tackle inflation, government sources familiar with the plan told Reuters on Wednesday.

Sterling was up 0.08% at $1.334, after stronger-than-expected retail sales that were boosted by demand for gold from online jewellers. It was down about 1% this week after soft inflation data had investors adding to expectations for a rate cut from the Bank of England this year.

Source: Kitco

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

As we approach today’s delayed CPI report, it’s helpful to look beyond government statistics to focus on a more current and robust picture of inflation.

Implied Inflation: This is derived from comparing the yields of nominal Treasury securities to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The graph below (bottom left) shows that implied inflation, also known as break-evens, has been gently declining. The shortest measure of inflation expectations, the 2-year break-even, has fallen from nearly 3% at the start of the year to 2.50% today. The market doesn’t seem overly concerned with tariffs generating inflation.

Truflation: This independent organization uses over 30 million data points to compute its real-time inflation index. For comparison, the BLS uses about 80,000 items in its CPI report. Per the top graphic below, Truflation’s measure has waffled between 2.00% and 2.25% for the last few months. This leaves us to believe that inflation has not upticked significantly since April, as many feared.

Surveys: ISM services and manufacturing gauges (bottom right green/black lines) of price changes have stabilized at high levels due to anticipated tariff-related inflation. The indicator measures how many respondents think inflation is rising versus falling. It doesn’t try to quantify a perceived inflation rate.

Conversely, the University of Michigan Survey (bottom right- purple) asks consumers where they think inflation will be a year from now. After peaking at 6.5% on tariff concerns, it has fallen to 4.5%. Sentiment regarding inflation remains high. The risk is that consumers and corporate behaviors might stoke inflation if they believe it will increase.

It’s worth noting that implied inflation and Truflation tend to be much better predictors of inflation than the surveys.

Leveraged ETFs Are Growing Rapidly

Not only are some investors chasing the most speculative of stocks and other assets, but they are also employing record amounts of leverage to do so. The graph below, courtesy of BofA, shows that there are now over 700 leveraged ETFs. Most of these ETFs give their investors 2x or 3x the daily returns on an underlying index or individual stock. Some go as high as 5%.

Leveraged ETFs reset daily. Which means the funds must buy or sell the underlying index to stay balanced. Further, the leverage combined with the daily resets means that returns of the leveraged ETFs versus the underlying assets drift over time, especially in high volatility environments.

The increased leverage is not just a risk to those using the leverage, but it’s a broad market risk as well. For instance, these funds have to chase the market. When the market is upward trending, leveraged ETF managers are forced buyers, thus accentuating gains.

The opposite holds true in down markets. However, in a disorderly decline, the undue selling pressure can cause pockets of steep declines. A one-off example occurred in the cryptocurrency market on October 11th, as we documented in our Commentary, The AltCoin Liquidity Bloodbath.

While the proliferation of leveraged ETFs is relatively new, Wall Street has a long history of creating complex leveraged products, which tend to allow more access to risk and leverage. For some astute traders, leveraged ETFs and other forms of leverage can be very profitable. However, as history has shown time and time again, retail traders ultimately pay the price by getting caught chasing markets when they peak.

Inflation in Focus: What Market Data Tells Us_1

Source: investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Damon

Economic

US business activity growth accelerated in October to the second-fastest so far this year, according to early 'flash' PMI data, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen in 2025 to date.

Both Services and Manufacturing surveys increased more than expected in the preliminary October data (with Services continuing to lead)...

"October's flash PMI data point to sustained strong economic growth at the start of the fourth quarter," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "with business activity picking up momentum across both manufacturing and services despite some reports of businesses being adversely impacted by the government shutdown."

The survey data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.5% annualized rate in October after a similar rise was signalled for the third quarter.

But it wasn't all unicorns and fairytales:

"However, business confidence in the outlook for the coming year has deteriorated further, and is at one of the lowest levels seen over the past three years as companies worry about the impact of policies, most notably tariffs.

Companies are also concerned over disappointing export sales, especially in manufacturing, and factories are seeing an unprecedented rise in unsold stock.

Having bought excess inputs earlier in the year to front-run tariffs, producers are making more goods to use up these inputs but are often struggling to sell the end product to customers."

Finally, Williamson notes that there has been no pass-through of tariff-induced inflation to consumers

"Hence, although input costs continued to rise sharply again in October, principally reflecting the pass-through of tariffs, average selling price inflation has cooled to the lowest since April as firms compete on price to win sales."

Solid 'soft' data amid a vacuum of 'hard' data dude to the govt shutdown.