Wall St Futures Inch Up After Deep Losses On Nvidia Swing, Cooling Rate Cut Bets

The growth in Singapore's key exports is expected to moderate in 2026 to 0 per cent to 2 per cent as tariff impact materialises and frontloading eases, Enterprise Singapore said on Nov 21.

The trade agency also narrowed its 2025 forecast for growth in non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) to around 2.5 per cent, from its previous forecast range of 1 to 3 per cent.

In its quarterly review of trade performance, EnterpriseSG noted that the World Trade Organisation expects global trade growth to fall to 0.5 per cent in 2026 from 2.4 per cent in 2025.

"This slowdown primarily reflects the materialisation of tariff-related impact and the easing of frontloading effects," said the agency.

"Downside risks include potential re-escalation of tariff actions as well as sector-specific tariffs that could raise global economic uncertainty and dampen demand," it added.

In the third quarter, Singapore's key exports fell 3.3 per per cent from a year ago after a 7 per cent increase in the second quarter. Non-electronic shipments shrank while electronics grew at a slower pace.

Exports of electronic products grew 7.1 per cent year on year. Personal computers expanded 69.5 per cent, integrated circuits grew 9.2 per cent while disk drives were up 16.5 per cent.

Non-electronic shipments fell 6.5 per cent in the third quarter, dragged down by food preparations (-39.4 per cent), petrochemicals (-21.2 per cent) and pharmaceuticals (-9.3 per cent).

Key exports to the United States tumbled 30.7 per cent, while those to Indonesia dropped 29.3 per cent. Nodx to China fell 8.3 per cent.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced on Nov 21 that Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been upgraded from "1.5 to 2.5 per cent" to "around 4.0 per cent". It largely reflects the better-than-expected performance of the Singapore economy in the third quarter of 2025.

But growth is expected to slow to 1 per cent to 3 per cent in 2026.

Source: Straitstimes

The recent downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market could be the result of deep holes in the balance sheets of market makers, according to Tom Lee, chairman of Ether treasury company BitMine.

Speaking with CNBC on Thursday, Lee suggested that the Oct. 10 market crash, which saw a record $20 billion liquidated from the market, ultimately caught some market makers off-guard, causing severe liquidity issues.

With less capital to operate, combined with reduced capital from traders as their primary source of revenue, it's a tough time for market makers, Lee said. As a result, this has also led them to shrink their "balance sheet further" in a bid to free up more capital.

"And if they've got a hole in their balance sheet that they need to raise capital, they need to reflexively reduce their balance sheet, reduce trading. And if prices fall, they've got to then do more selling. So I think that this drip that's been taking place for the last few weeks in crypto reflects this market maker crippling," he said.

Tom Lee offers his current read on the market. Source: CNBC

Lee, who is also the co-founder of Fundstrat, likened the importance of crypto market makers to "central banks" and suggested that the market may face more pain for a few more weeks until the market makers' liquidity issues are resolved.

"Today's stock market looks a lot like an echo of what happened on October 10th. But on October 10th, that liquidation was so big [...] it really crippled market makers," he said, adding:

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at over $121,000 before the Oct. 10 crash, and has since declined back to $86,900, with most of the market following a similar pattern.

Lee said there may be another couple of weeks of market maker unwinding before the market starts to heal, as he pointed to a similar occurrence from 2022:

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

The US Justice Department has charged four people in a scheme to illegally export Nvidia artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China, prompting a key House Republican to call for urgent passage of a chip-tracking bill on Thursday.

"China recognises the superiority of American AI innovation and will do whatever it must to catch up," said John Moolenaar, the chair of the US House Select Committee on China. "That's why the bipartisan Chip Security Act is urgently needed."

The legislation, which Moolenaar introduced in May and has 30 cosponsors, would require location verification for chips, make it mandatory for chipmakers to report and share information about potential diversion, and look at additional ways to stop US chips from ending up in the wrong hands.

The case highlights the challenges Washington faces in enforcing its sweeping restrictions on high-tech exports to China, which are designed to hobble Beijing's military development and keep the US ahead on technology. China has criticised US export curbs as part of a campaign to weaponise economic and trade issues.

The indictment, which the US Department of Justice announced on Thursday, charges two US citizens and two Chinese nationals with conspiring to export Nvidia GPUs to China without required licences. The defendants allegedly created fake contracts and provided false documentation to ship the chips to third countries, knowing they were destined for China.

They then exported 400 Nvidia A100 GPUs to China through Malaysia between October 2024 and January 2025, according to the indictment. Law enforcement stopped attempts to export 10 Hewlett-Packard supercomputers with Nvidia H100 GPUs and 50 separate Nvidia H200 GPUs through Thailand, the US Department of Justice said.

In the Florida case, the conspiracy included the use of a Tampa company as a front to purchase and export chips, and nearly US$4 million (RM16.58 million) in wire transfers from China to fund the scheme, the Justice Department said.

A lawyer for one defendant declined to comment and a lawyer for a second defendant did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The other defendants could not immediately be reached.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Asian shares extended a global rout on Friday as the much anticipated U.S. jobs data failed to provide clarity on interest rates, with investors returning to dumping riskier assets even after Nvidia's earnings dazzled.

Japan's Nikkeitumbled 2% on Friday, Australia's resources-heavy sharesslid 1.4%, while South Koreaplunged almost 4%.

Wall Street dived overnight as jitters over inflated tech stock prices returned after temporary relief from Nvidia's stellar forecasts, resulting in the Nasdaq's widest one-day swing since April 9 when President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs spooked markets.

Data showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in September, but a rise in the unemployment rate and downward revisions to prior months painted an ambiguous picture for the Federal Reserve as it considers whether a cut in interest rates is needed next month to bolster the labor market.

Treasury yields fell as futures moved to imply a 40% probability of a U.S. rate cut in December, up from 30% a day earlier, but still not enough to convince investors of a December move, with the next payrolls numbers available only after the Fed meeting.

"The markets had plenty to be positive about and initially Nvidia's banging quarterly results meant Wall Street burst out of the gates. The U.S. jobs data was probably as good as you could have hoped for too," said Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com.

"However, the momentum simply was not there to carry the rally through, with the passing of two critical risk events – both with positive outcomes, no less – not enough to kill the bearishness gripping the markets currently."

There are now more concerns about financial market stability among Fed officials, including the potential for a sharp drop in asset prices, as they debate when and even whether to cut interest rates further.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned on Thursday that cutting rates further right now carries a wide range of risks for the economy. Fed Governor Lisa Cook sees a risk of outsized asset price declines.

In the currency markets, the dollar jumped on the risk-sensitive commodity currencies, hitting a three-month high on the Aussieand a fresh seven-month top on the kiwi (NZD).

It was steady at 157.50 yen, after scaling a new 10-month peak of 157.9 overnight, as traders stayed on high alert for intervention from Japanese authorities given the yen's recent rapid fall.

Data showed Japan's core consumer prices rose 3% in October, keeping alive expectations of a near-term interest rate hike. However, prospects of economic stimulus from Japan's new government, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, have undermined the yen.

The government is set to unveil an economic stimulus package worth over 20 trillion yen, the biggest since COVID-19, on Friday.

Treasuries rose overnight as investors raised bets for a Fed cut next month. Two-year Treasury yields (US2YT=RR) slipped 1 basis point to 3.545%, having fallen 4 basis points overnight, while the 10-year yieldwas steady at 4.092%, after easing 3 bps overnight.

Oil prices fell in early trade. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crudedropped 0.9% to $58.47, and was down 2.7% this week.

Spot gold priceswere flat at $4,077 per ounce, having been little moved overnight.

Source: TradingView

A short walk from the selfie stick-wielding crowds of Tokyo's Harajuku, the serene side streets of Omotesando are peppered with fashion-conscious tourists. Sporting Dior saddle bags and silk Hermès scarves, they're scavenging for the must-have memento of their trip: a secondhand designer handbag.

"There is huge demand here," says vintage dealer Kris Jiang, 29, who's on track to make $1.6 million this year from reselling luxury bags mostly sourced from Japan. "It's the modern-age tourist souvenir: Come to Japan, and buy a vintage bag."

As the weak yen lures record numbers of bargain-hungry tourists, the country's vintage industry is booming. Instagram and TikTok are awash with "Tokyo vintage haul" videos, featuring bags and clothing from foreign brands that Japanese consumers bought new during a luxury boom in the 1980s and '90s and kept in mint condition. Travel agents are launching tours of the best shops across major cities, and resellers such as Jiang are seeing their profits soar.

Japan's secondhand fashion market topped ¥1 trillion ($6.4 billion) for the first time last year, with sales of luxury vintage goods jumping 16% in 2024 alone, according to a study by the Reuse Economic Journal.

The influx of customers has transformed Omotesando's formerly sleepy secondhand stores into tourist hot spots, perhaps none more so than vintage reseller Valuence Holdings Inc. In July, the company shelled out an eye-popping $10.1 million at Sotheby's Paris to buy the original Hermès Birkin bag, created for the late actress Jane Birkin — an expensive marketing ploy only possible because of its surging revenue.

"Had it been five or even three years ago, there's no way we could have dreamed of making such a purchase," says Shinsuke Sakimoto, Valuence's chief executive officer. "The weak yen has undoubtedly been a boon for sales."

The 10-minute auction, which Sakimoto says ultimately pitted him against Jeff Bezos' wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, put Valuence on the global map. His winning bid marked the most ever paid for a handbag at auction, and the company featured in 400 news articles in the three weeks that followed — buzz that Sakimoto estimates would normally have cost about ¥700 million to generate. Sánchez Bezos didn't reply to a request for comment via the Bezos Earth Fund. Sakimoto expects the bag will cost Valuence around ¥10 million a year in storage and insurance.

Sakimoto, who took over the fashion portion of his father's secondhand goods business in 2011 after briefly dabbling in professional soccer, concedes he's not a Birkin fan himself. "I prefer quiet luxury over the flashy items," he says, fiddling with a Hermès Chaine d'Ancre bracelet on his right wrist, which retails for almost $2,000. But the deal sent ripples through Omotesando, where stores compete daily to impress tourists with the hottest, rarest designer pieces.

"The purchase of the original Birkin was the talk of the industry," says Shinoko Itakura, brand director of Amore Vintage. Its flagship store, with a basement devoted to a rainbow of vintage Chanel, is a few streets away from Valuence's headquarters. "The price was astonishing," she says.

Amore is no stranger to high-ticket items. Its customers include Kim Kardashian, rapper Kendrick Lamar and pop star Dua Lipa, whose autographs adorn the store's bubblegum-pink walls. When the Los Angeles Dodgers were in town this spring, the chain sold a rare Chanel baseball shirt to the wife of a player, though Itakura coyly deflected when asked to disclose which one.

Celebrity interest in Japanese vintage has skyrocketed since borders reopened after the pandemic, according to Itakura, as the country's reputation for well-preserved, hard-to-find pieces proliferated on social media. Amore sources all its inventory from domestic auctions and sells almost exclusively to foreign tourists.

"Japanese people generally take very good care of their possessions, and only use expensive items on special occasions," says Itakura, leaning forward to avoid crumpling the Chanel bomber jacket draped over the back of her chair. "Luxury pieces in good condition circulate in abundance in Japan. There's an almost never-ending supply that keeps the vintage industry running."

That deep pool of secondhand designer goods sets the country's market apart from global peers, according to Shinya Nagasawa, a professor at Waseda Business School in Tokyo, who specializes in design and brand innovation. It's a result of the heady days of Japan's bubble economy in the mid-1980s to early '90s — an era of cheap credit and rising asset prices that sparked an explosion in firsthand luxury purchases, especially among women.

With extra disposable income, many splashed out on rare, limited-edition items, Nagasawa says. "One in three, or maybe even one in two Japanese women owned something from Louis Vuitton" during that time, he estimates.

Most bubble-era bags have been stashed away in closets for the better part of 30 years, but with living costs now rising and '90s fashion trending again, "people are realizing they can fetch a pretty penny for the designer items they've taken good care of," Nagasawa says. That's causing a surge in selling, creating a healthy supply-demand cycle for the vintage market, he says.

Still, with demand inextricably linked to the weak yen, currency moves could derail the boom.

Valuence's Sakimoto says a strengthening in the yen — which could be on the horizon if the Bank of Japan raises rates in December — would "inevitably hit" its retail sales. It would also be a blow for Amore. Tourists from the US are the company's largest customer base, and fewer may travel if costs climb.

For now, President Donald Trump's tariffs remain a demand driver, says Itakura, as the levies increase costs for Americans buying vintage online. That's adding to the appeal of shopping in Japan, where tourists can pick up items tax-free at stores, though levies should still apply if they return home with more than $800 worth of goods in their luggage.Tariffs are one reason Jiang, based in New York, has begun making regular trips to Japan for on-the-ground sourcing. Her business, Rebelonging, ships vintage finds to the US, where she sells them at pop-ups and online with a 25% markup. Meeting suppliers in person gives her a chance to persuade them to shoulder some of the duty costs at the US border in return for a bulk purchase, she says.

Jiang documents her search for rare Japanese vintage on TikTok, where she's amassed almost 80,000 followers in two years. Chanel Classic bags are her best sellers and typically go for at least $3,000.

Japan's reputation for high-quality goods and strict counterfeit checks has earned its vintage industry a cult-like following in the global "fashion girl" community, Jiang says. Demand is so strong that, even if currency moves were to force her to hike prices, she sees no signs of her business slowing down. "I just see exponential growth," she says.

The original Birkin arrived in Tokyo earlier this month and is being displayed at Valuence's Omotesando store through Nov. 24. A recent visit found the bag under a spotlight in a blacked-out room on the third floor. Customer numbers at the shop have tripled to around 150 a day since the exhibition began, according to the company.

Sakimoto has no plans to sell the Birkin — which cost more than Valuence's total operating profit last fiscal year — but hopes its presence will drive foot traffic, regardless of forex rates."I have no doubt it'll bring financial returns," he says. "Given the industry we're in, the investment was a no-brainer."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Japanese manufacturing activity picked up in November but still remained in contraction territory, while services were strong, preliminary purchasing managers index data showed on Friday.

The S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 48.8 in November from 48.2 in the prior month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, with the sentiment-based print signaling that Japanese manufacturers still remained largely negative over their prospects.

But manufacturing PMI still contracted at its slowest pace in three months, pointing to some improvement.

Sticky inflation, however, pushed up input and selling prices, while overall demand for manufactured goods also remained weak.

Services were a point of support, with the S&P Global services PMI remaining at 53.1 in November, the same as October. This helped Japan's composite PMI rise to 52.0 in November from 51.5 in October.

Sentiment was seen improving marginally as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi flagged plans for more fiscal support. But doubts over how Takaichi will fund her spending plans also crept into markets, sparking a rout in bonds in November.

Inflation also remained a key concern for business, as both input and selling costs increased. Friday's PMI data comes shortly after government data showed consumer inflation rose as expected in October.

Source: Investing