Uzbekistan's Solar and Wind Energy Projects Set to Surge in 2025

Commodity

Summary:

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has declared 2025 “the Year of Environmental Protection and Green Economy,” according to a statement issued by the presidential press service.

· Uzbekistan plans to increase its renewable energy usage from 16% to 26% by the end of 2025, with a goal of 54% by 2030.

· The government is prioritizing the development of industries with high energy efficiency and value added.

· Uzbekistan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030 and install solar panels on 50% of all roofs.

Uzbekistan is launching a green energy offensive in 2025 that aims to boost the share of renewable energy usage in the country from 16 percent at present to 26 percent by the end of the year.

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has declared 2025 “the Year of Environmental Protection and Green Economy,” according to a statement issued by the presidential press service.

“The ‘Green economy’ is not only the development of clean energy, but also the improvement of energy efficiency in various industries,” the statement notes. “This year, the goal is to maintain the rate of economic growth at a level of at least 6 percent and increase the gross domestic product to more than $125 billion. To achieve this, rationality and savings are key factors.”

To help meet the administration’s goal, 16 solar- and wind-energy generating projects with the capacity of 3.5 Gigawatts are expected to come online in 2025.

Earlier in January, Mirziyoyev announced a goal to increase the share of renewables in Uzbek energy generation to 54 percent by 2030, instead of the previously planned 40 percent. “We will introduce national systems for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and trading emission quotas,” an Uzbek government statement quoted Mirziyoyev as saying. “By 2030, we intend to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35 percent and constantly increase this indicator.”

Mirziyoyev mentioned on January 28 that by 2030, 55 percent of new industrial and infrastructure projects should be “green” with the aim of catering to environmentally conscious importers in the West. He also instructed government ministries to prioritize developing industries that produce more value per unit of energy used, such as automobile, pharmaceutical and food industries that, according to him, “produce 15-20 times more value added per ton of [oil equivalent of] energy than chemical, construction and textile sectors.”

Mirziyoyev is pushing the use of solar panels, setting a goal of generating 1GW of power via solar panels on the roofs of businesses and private houses. Solar panels have already been installed on 60,000 roofs throughout Uzbekistan, and the plan is to install them on 50 percent of all roofs in the nation, according to a presidential press service statement, which did not specify a timeframe for reaching the goal.

Mirziyoyev’s green energy push is likely motivated by a desire to diversify the Uzbek economy, which is heavily dependent on revenue generated by raw material exports. The president also is betting on green energy to drive an economic transformation that better positions Uzbekistan in the global trading framework.

Source: oilprice.com

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Damon

Political

Economic

Donald Trump’s return to the White House, besides ushering in another turbulent four-year term with serious implications for trade, global conflicts and the future of US foreign alliances, has raised concerns about the future of Iran's economy.

Reports say Trump’s staunch pro-Israel nominees for cabinet and coterie of top advisers plan to reinstate his trademark “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran with the aim of choking off the Islamic Republic oil income by “going after foreign ports and traders who handle Iranian oil”.

Trump adopted the strategy during his first term as he took a dim view of a six-nation agreement with Tehran known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in the hope of architecting a new deal which could bring in American companies from the cold into Iran’s ripe market of many opportunities.

While it is too early to know what approach Trump might take in his new tenure given his mercurial nature and unpredictable policymaking style, the Iranian economy is not what it was in 2018. It has developed a level of flexibility and resilience that stricter sanctions can no longer threaten growth and development in a big way.

In his campaign for a second term, Trump signaled a more conciliatory approach to Iran, stating that he “would like to see Iran be very successful”. He further expressed a hope for improved relations: “I’m not looking to be bad to Iran, we’re going to be friendly, I hope.”

The New York Times even reported a meeting between Iran’s ambassador to the UN and Elon Musk, the tech billionaire closely allied with Trump, in a bid to defuse tensions in the new administration, but the Iranian foreign ministry “categorically denied” it and was “surprised” by the coverage in US media.

The stated goal of Trump's maximum pressure campaign in 2018 was to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero from about 2.3 million barrels per day. It ultimately failed to deliver that as Iranian oil continued to flow to the market, though at a quarter of pre-sanctions levels.

Throttling Iran’s sales with new sanctions would have even much less success since customers wary of the US retribution do not buy any oil from the country and those who do are not worried about sanctions or exposed to the US financial market.

Oil market analysts say increased enforcement of sanctions would trim just 200,000-500,000 barrels per day off Iran’s exports at worst.

Faced with restrictions, Iran's economy has continued to power ahead in the past five years and been able to build up domestic capacities in some sectors to counter challenges.

The country has also diversified its business partners, strengthening economic relations with neighbors. This is reflected in Iran’s recent membership in several international organizations.

In July 2023, Iran became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a political and military alliance founded by China and Russia. In 2024, its membership in the BRICS+ group and inclusion in a free trade area with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) brought Iran closer to other member states commercially while carrying significant symbolic weight for the country.

The country has also boosted its non-oil exports as a way of countering US sanctions. According to the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, non-oil exports hit $43.14 billion in the first nine months since last March, up 18% from the same period a year ago.

Last October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its economic growth forecast for Iran in 2024 amid signs the country is becoming increasingly immune to the economic impacts of US sanctions.

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecast Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 3.7 percent, up from a previous estimate of 3.3 percent. The country’s economy will continue to grow in 2025, albeit at a lower rate of 3.1%, according to the UN financial agency’s latest report.

To neuter sanctions, Iran's economy should continue to move on the path of growth, irrespective of global political developments and Trump’s direction.

To achieve sustainable economic growth and national development, there is also need for serious reforms to stamp out imbalances in the economy which have recently cropped up in the energy sector.

Source: presstv.ir

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Apple reported earnings for the fiscal first quarter of 2025, showing that sales in China fell 11% from the same quarter in the fiscal year 2024. Despite this, Apple’s shares jumped more than 3% in after-hours trading. Investors are optimistic about its growth prospects in Apple Intelligence, while Apple’s diversified product range has contributed to overall revenue growth.

Apple remained the world’s largest company, with a market capitalisation of $3.58 trillion (€3.43 trillion), with its stock declining 4.56% this year as of market close on 30 January.

A record quarter

Apple’s overall sales rose by 4% to $124.30 billion (€119.2 billion) during the December quarter, which is a record quarterly number. The company also achieved a record profit, with earnings per share at $2.4 (€2.3), up 10% from a year earlier. The gross margin came in at 46.9%, compared with the estimated 46.5%. Apple expects continued growth of low to mid-single digits in the March quarter.

Additionally, Apple’s active devices have reached a record high of 2.35 billion globally, compared to 2.2 billion a year ago. CFO Kevan Parekh, said: “We are also pleased that our installed base of active devices has reached a new all-time high across all products and geographic segments.”

CEO Tim Cook indicated holiday shopping had supported sales: “We were thrilled to bring customers our best-ever lineup of products and services during the holiday season.”

However, sales of Apple’s biggest segment, the iPhone series, fell slightly from last year due to a sharp decline in Greater China. In other product categories, the new iPad and MacBook series have contributed to the overall growth, both of which saw a 15% increase in sales from last year. Meanwhile, sales of Apple Wearables, including Apple Watch, AirPods, Bests, and Apple Vision Pro, fell by 2% year on year.

Services revenue remained a bright spot, increasing 14% year on year. The division, which includes Apple TV+, iCloud, and App Stores, is a key driver for Apple’s profitability. The company expects Apple services to grow low double digits for the current quarter.

Ongoing weakness in China

Apple’s sales in Greater China, including mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, declined 11.1%, making the largest drop since the same quarter in 2023. Greater China is Apple’s third largest market and recorded an annual sales decline throughout 2024, due to growing competition from local brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi, alongside overall sluggish consumer demand. “Ultimately, investors don’t have a very shiny Apple right now,” Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro Australia wrote in a note.

The December quarter is the first full quarter following the launch of the iPhone 16 handset series, and the slowdown may also suggest that Apple Intelligence lagged behind other tech giants in rolling out its artificial intelligence-backed products.

During an interview with CNBC, Cook indicated that the decline in China was partly due to delays in launching Apple Intelligence, which is only available in some English-speaking regions. He noted iPhone 16 sales were better in countries with the AI software available compared with those where is not.

“Through the power of Apple silicon, we’re unlocking new possibilities for our users with Apple Intelligence, which makes apps and experiences even better and more personal. And we’re excited that Apple Intelligence will be available in even more languages this April,” he commented in the earnings report.

Source: Euronews

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Warren Takunda

Economic

"Gold prices hit a fresh all-time high early on Friday, surpassing the $2,800 level as demand for haven assets surged amid uncertainty over the impact of the new U.S. administration’s tariffs on inflation and economic growth," says Ricardo Evangelista, an analyst at ActivTrades.

Gold has recorded a month-on-month gain of $135.76 (5.17%), with the latest push coming on the eve of expected announcements by the U.S. administration that it will implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

The moves are anticipated to be the first in President Donald Trump's stated desire to ramp up of tariffs to boost domestic industry and realign global trade, which he says has been "very unfair" to the U.S. He is also wielding tariffs as a negotiating tool to force concessions from other countries.

"These tariffs could drive inflation higher in the US and potentially trigger a trade war, darkening the global economic outlook," says Evangelista.

Gold Price Records Fall, With No Let Up in Sight_1

Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, and the rise in the precious metal signals expectations for tariffs to be inflationary.

"Against this backdrop, further gains in bullion prices cannot be ruled out," says Evangelista.

Central banks continue to cut interest rates, with the European Central Bank announcing a fifth 25 basis point cut on Thursday, taking the deposit rate to 2.75%.

The rate cut comes amidst a stagnating economy; however, inflation remains above the ECB's 2.0% target, with core inflation proving particularly reluctant to fall.

Peter Schiff, Chief Economist & Global Strategist at Euro Pacific, says the ECB might have cut too far:

"The price of gold is up another 25 euros per ounce, trading at another record high. Gold is clearly warning that the ECB is too easy, and Europe will be hit with higher inflation."

High inflation and low growth signal a nascent stagflationary cycle that naturally supports gold.

"Gold tends to perform well in a stagflationary environment characterised by high inflation and low growth," says Evangelista.

Central banks themselves are hinting they are aware of this, not via their official communications (why would you admit you are getting it wrong?), but rather through their actions.

In 2024, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold - the second-highest annual purchase in history - following a record high of 1,082 tonnes in 2023 and analysts forecast ongoing demand in the year ahead.

"We expect central bank demand to remain solid - we forecast purchases of around 900 metric tons in 2025 - driven by diversification and de-dollarization trends," says Wayne Gordon, a Strategist at UBS.

China is a particularly potent source of demand as it looks to diversify its asset base away from foreign bond holdings.

"Strong gold demand in China was one of the key narratives in the gold market in 2024," says Hamad Hussain, an economist at Capital Economics. "Recent macroeconomic and geopolitical developments suggest that China’s gold demand will be even stronger in 2025 than we first thought."

Goldman Sachs Research expects the buying spree to persist amid concerns about U.S. financial sanctions and the growing U.S. sovereign debt burden, setting a $3,000 per ounce price prediction on gold for 2025.

"Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, central banks have been buying gold at a brisk pace — roughly triple the amount prior," says Goldman Sachs. "Gold is our strategists' preferred near-term long (the commodity they most expect to go up in the short term), and it’s also their preferred hedge against geopolitical and financial risks."

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Thomas

Economic

Economic growth in the eurozone slowed to a halt in the fourth quarter, dragged by contractions in two of its major economies, France and Germany, official data revealed Thursday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) was flat, with a zero increase in the final quarter of 2024 in the 20-nation eurozone, the EU statistics agency Eurostat said.

The stalling growth in the single-currency area disappointed predictions by analysts at Bloomberg and FactSet, who had forecast a 0.1% expansion after growth of 0.4% in the third quarter. Consumers remained cautious about spending after being stung by inflation, even though inflation has come down from its peak of 10.6% in October 2022.

Annual growth for 2024 stood at 0.7% in the 20-nation eurozone, after 0.4% the previous year – entrenching Europe's economic stagnation compared to faster-growing rivals the United States and China.

Germany is laboring under multiple headwinds, including the loss of cheap energy from Russia, choking bureaucracy and political paralysis in Berlin. Its economy contracted 0.2% in the fourth quarter.

The German economy, Europe's largest, also contracted 0.2% for all of 2024, the second straight year of declining output.

The outlook for this year isn't much better. On Wednesday, the government slashed its 2025 forecast to 0.3% from 1.1%.

Leading European economies Germany and France are both unsettled by political turmoil that has left businesses and consumers uncertain about what the future holds in terms of government spending, regulation and taxes. Germany's confusion could clear up after a national election on Feb. 23 following the collapse of Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz's governing coalition, which has been mired in months of bickering over what to do about the economy.

France may take longer to emerge from paralysis since Parliament is deeply divided and a new election can't be held until July at the earliest. Political forces are at odds over how to address the country's large budget deficit.

Business prospects have been unsettled by the election of Donald Trump in the U.S., whose advocacy of new and higher import tariffs could hurt Europe's export-oriented economy. The slowing uptake of electric vehicles and Germany's cancellation of purchase subsidies for EVs has hurt demand for parts suppliers.

'Worse than most think'Jack Allen-Reynolds, chief eurozone economist at Capital Economics, said the fourth-quarter stagnation "supports our view that the region's economic prospects are worse than most think."

After hiking borrowing costs in 2022 to tame runaway energy and food costs, the European Central Bank (ECB) has brought them steadily back down as inflation slows and the eurozone economy looks weak.

It was expected to cut its key interest rate later Thursday, a step that could help boost growth.

The ECB faces a juggling act since lower rates help growth by making credit more affordable but also can worsen inflation, which has risen in recent months and was at 2.4% in December as energy prices rose.

Allen-Reynolds predicted the lackluster growth figures could prompt the ECB to accelerate its campaign beyond the latest quarter-point reduction it is expected to announce later Thursday.

For the 27-nation EU as a whole, the data painted only a slightly better picture, with annual growth of 0.8% – 0.1 points less than forecast by the European Commission in November.

But there were stark disparities between eurozone countries, spelling a potential headache for the ECB as it weighs future rate cuts.

At one end of the eurozone spectrum, Spain saw its economy expand by 3.2% last year – while at the other, Germany endured a 0.2% contraction and a second year of recession.

Somewhere in between, France leveraged a boost from the Paris Olympic Games to notch annual growth of 1.1%, doing better than Italy at 0.5%.

But the French economy's fortunes faded at the end of the year – and it shrank by 0.1% in the fourth quarter as the summer Olympic boost gave way to months of political crisis.

Source: dailysabah.com

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Damon

Economic

(Jan 31): The pace of price growth in Tokyo picked up, while other economic data suggested that Japan’s moderate recovery continues, backing the central bank’s economic outlook a week after authorities raised the benchmark rate again.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food in the capital climbed 2.5% in January from a year earlier, the fastest pace since last February, according to the ministry of internal affairs Friday. Overall price gains also sped up to 3.4%, the fastest clip in nearly two years, as the cost of fresh food jumped.

Separate data showed the labor market appeared to remain tight as the jobless rate slightly decreased to 2.4%, and jobs to applicant levels remained at 1.25, meaning there were 125 job openings for every 100 job seekers. Industrial production and retail sales data were also broadly better than expected.

Friday’s batch of indicators largely fits in with the market view that there will likely be another rate hike in about six months. The latest Tokyo inflation figures, a leading indicator for the national trend, indicate that inflationary pressure remains elevated, an outcome that supports the Bank of Japan’s decision last week to raise borrowing costs to the highest level since 2008.

“With food prices such as rice rising and government subsidies for energy disappearing, I think that consumers’ perception of inflation is much higher than the data show,” said Hideo Kumano, economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute. “I think that the BOJ has no reason to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes and will continue to raise interest rates at regular intervals.”

According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, July is the most likely timing for the BOJ’s next rate hike, with September seen as the next most likely month for action. In a risk scenario, the rate change could come as early as April, according to 45% of the surveyed analysts.

Gains in Tokyo’s cost of living were led by processed food prices as the cost of rice surged 73% from a year earlier. Fresh food also surged 24% as both fruit and vegetable prices continued to rise.

The central bank surprised many economists by upgrading its quarterly inflation projections more than expected last week. For all three fiscal year outlook periods through March 2027, the BOJ for the first time expects inflation to be at or above its price target of 2%.

“The pickup in Tokyo’s inflation in January will likely strengthen the Bank of Japan confidence that consumer-price gains are becoming secure around its 2% target — consistent with our view that it will continue to pare stimulus this year,” said Bloomberg Economics.

With inflation still elevated and his public support edging down, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba decided to reinstate the government’s subsidy program for utility bills from this month, a development that will be reflected from February data, likely slowing price gains going forward.

Separate data released Friday showed Japan’s factory output fell 1.1% compared to the previous year in December and retail sales rose 3.7%, according to the industry ministry. Industrial production rose 1.3% last quarter, potentially supporting overall growth in the final three months of 2024, but economists broadly see the Japanese economy shrinking last year.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Samantha Luan

Economic

India’s digital economy will grow twice as fast as the rest of the economy, and constitute 13.42% of national income by the end of 2024–25, as against 11.74% in 2022–23, according to a report prepared by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) based on a study by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology.

By 2030, the report says, India’s digital economy will account for nearly a fifth of overall GDP. This is the first such attempt by the government to quantify the size of India’s digital economy.

To quantify the size of the digital economy, ICRIER has combined definitions by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), but also included the “Digital share of traditional industries like trade, banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) and education,” essentially casting a wider net to measure the share that digitally-enabled services and activities have in the economy.

Under this framework, “The digital economy in 2022–23 was equivalent to ₹28.94 lakh crore (~$368 billion) in [Gross Value Added (GVA)] and ₹31.64 lakh crore (~$402 billion) in GDP,” the report says. Even under the expanded definition that includes digitising industries, the “traditional ICT” sector remains the largest portion included in these measures and estimates.

Information and communications technology firms, telecom activities, and electronics manufacturing add up to 7.83% of national GVA, the report highlights. Big Tech players and online “intermediaries” account for 2% of national GVA, as do BFSI, trade and education combined. This, the report says, indicates that “India’s digital economy is steadily moving beyond the realm of the ICT industries, diffusing across all parts of the economy through digital platforms and the digitalisation of brick-and-mortar sectors”.

Notably, the contribution of sectors like e-commerce and digital-only services is highly limited at present. While core digital firms (such as those outlined above) contribute the bulk of value added, e-tailers (an OECD term that the report enlarges by including direct-to-consumer brands) contribute only 0.3%. BFSI firms’ digital activities contribute four times that much.

This will change in the coming years, though, the report says. “In the short run, the highest growth is likely to come from the growth of digital intermediaries and platforms, followed by higher digital diffusion and digitalisation of the rest of the economy,” ICRIER writes. “This will eventually lower the share of digitally enabling ICT industries in the digital economy.”