US natural gas price analysis: Weather-driven spike or onset of bullish trend

Commodity

Summary:

US natural gas is pulling back on warmer weather, strong output and ample storage, though LNG exports keep support intact. The trend remains bullish unless prices fall below key $4.70–$4.50 support levels.

On Tuesday, US natural gas price extended losses from the previous session in reaction to forecasts of warmer weather in most parts of the country. Near-record output and ample inventories have further fueled the pullback, even as the bulls remain in control. Meanwhile, European prices are under selling pressure as investors weigh the prospects of a peace deal and subsequent easing of Russian sanctions.

Europe Vs US natural gas prices: The paradox that lies within

This time of the year is usually marked by higher natural gas prices as investors price in increased warming demand during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter season. In fact, weather forecast is one of the bullish factors that bolstered US natural gas prices to a three-year high late last week. Besides, record LNG exports to Europe have fueled the months-long rally.

While the short-term outlook remains positive, investors appear to weigh on whether the recent surge is the onset of a larger bullish trend or just a weather-driven spike that will soon fade. Indeed, this dilemma, coupled with the expected profit-booking, explains the pullback recorded since the start of the week.

According to the updated weather forecast, most parts of the US are expected to experience warmer temperatures in the near term. Atmospheric G2 has indicated that the eastern and southern US will be colder for the period between 18th and 22nd December, while other regions remain warmer.

In its latest weekly report, EIA highlighted a draw of 12 Bcf compared to the expected 15 Bcf. Subsequently, the surplus surged from 160 Bcf to 191 Bcf. In addition to the ample amount of natural gas in storage, the near-record output is weighing on the prices.

Nonetheless, steady LNG exports continue to offer support to US natural gas prices while exerting selling pressure in the European market. In the current month, the natural gas flows to the eight major LNG export plants within the US are averaging at 18.9 Bcf/per day compared to the monthly record high hit in November at 18.2 Bcf/per day.

Meanwhile, prospects of a peace deal that could see the return of Russian gas have pushed the benchmark for European prices, Dutch TTF, to the lowest level since April 2024.

US natural gas price technical analysis

Late last week, the Henry Hub natural gas futures rallied to a three-year high at $5.50 per MMBtu as it marked seven consecutive weeks of gains. Since late September, it has recorded higher highs and higher lows as a positive demand outlook fuels the bullish sentiment.

On Tuesday, it extended losses from the previous session, having pulled back below the psychologically crucial zone of $5.00. At the time of writing, the US natural gas was trading at $4.81.

Despite the pullback, the bulls are still in control as the asset continues to trade above the 25 and 50-day EMAs. Indeed, the decline can be perceived as a cool-off rather than trend reversal.

In the immediate term, the range between Monday’s intraday high of $5.20 and the resistance-turn-support zone of $4.70 will be worth watching. Below that zone, the bulls will be keen on defending the crucial support at $4.50 as they gather enough momentum for a rebound. On the flip side, a bounceback past the range’s upper limit will give buyers a chance to retest the 3-year high at $5.50.

Source: invezz

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Adam

Economic

Amazon on Wednesday committed to investing over $35 billion in India’s cloud and artificial intelligence space by 2030, as hyperscalers race to get a foothold in the market.

The commitment, unveiled at the Amazon Smbhav Summit in New Delhi, builds on nearly $40 billion already invested in the country.

In a press release, Amazon said the new funds will target AI-driven digitization, export growth and job creation, aligning with India’s national priorities to build up its local AI environment.

By 2030, Amazon said the plan is expected to generate an additional 1 million direct, indirect, induced and seasonal jobs in India, quadruple exports to $80 billion and deliver AI benefits to 15 million small businesses.

India is one of the fastest‑growing regions for AI spending within Asia Pacific, Deepika Giri, IDC’s regional head of research for big data & AI, told CNBC.

“A major gap, and therefore a significant opportunity, lies in the shortage of suitable compute infrastructure for running AI models,” Giri said.

She added that countries across Asia are accelerating efforts to build sovereign AI capabilities as the technology becomes more regionalized due to trade tensions and tariffs, with infrastructure as a central pillar of those strategies.

The investment highlights Amazon’s bet on India’s booming digital economy, where it has been building fulfillment centers, as well as data centers and payments infrastructure under its Amazon Web Services subsidiary.

It also comes soon after Microsoft announced plans to invest $17.5 billion in India’s AI infrastructure as Big Tech players accelerate their push into the market.

“We are humbled to have been a part of India’s digital transformation journey over the past 15 years,” said Amit Agarwal, senior vice president for emerging markets at Amazon.

“Looking ahead, we’re excited to continue being a catalyst for India’s growth, as we democratize access to AI for millions of Indians.”

Source: cnbc

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Devin

Central Bank

The Bank of Canada held its key policy rate steady at 2.25% on Wednesday as widely expected, and Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy was proving resilient overall to the effect of U.S. trade measures.

Despite tariffs between 25% and 50% on some critical sectors such as cars, lumber, aluminum and steel, Canada's economy has shown signs of strength.

Third quarter annualized GDP grew by 2.6%, much more than expected, while employment data showed the economy added 181,000 new jobs between September and November.

"So far, the economy is proving resilient," Macklem said in opening remarks to reporters, adding that inflationary pressures continue to be contained. Overall inflation is just above the bank's 2% target.

"Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy," said Macklem.

Uncertainty remains high and if the outlook changes, the bank is ready to respond, Macklem said, reiterating comments he made when the bank cut rates in October to their current level.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will also announce a rate decision on Wednesday and a majority of economists expect it will cut rates by 25 basis points.

Macklem said even though the economy had shown some resilience, he expected GDP growth to be weak in the fourth quarter and hiring intentions to be muted.

While the economy is adjusting to tariffs, volatility in trade and quarterly GDP numbers are making it more difficult to assess the underlying momentum of the economy, Macklem noted.

The recent data has "not changed our view that GDP will expand at a moderate pace in 2026 and inflation will remain close to target."

Andrew Kelvin, Head of Canadian and Global Rates Strategy at TD Securities called the bank's commentary a fairly cautious tone.

"It leads me to be very comfortable with the idea that the bank will be on hold for quite some time," he said.

CHOPPINESS IN INFLATION

The consumer price index eased to 2.2% in October but economists have regularly flagged that measures of core inflation, which strips out volatile components, have stayed around 3%, the top end of the BoC's inflation target.

In the months ahead, the BoC expects some choppiness in headline inflation which would push inflation temporarily higher in the near term.

But Macklem said the ongoing economic slack would roughly offset these cost pressures. He said the bank expects the growth in final domestic demand to resume after registering a flat growth in the third quarter.

The Canadian dollar weakened after the announcement and was trading down 0.13% to 1.3865 to the U.S. dollar, or 72.12 U.S. cents. Yields on the two-year government bonds fell 3.3 basis points to 2.556%.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Political

Economic

An overview of Caracas amid rising tensions between the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro's government, in Caracas, Venezuela, November 27, 2025. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa

· Lawmakers want more information after briefing by top Trump aides

· Trump would consider extending anti-drug operations to Mexico, Colombia

· Trump criticizes Europe's political leaders as 'weak'

· President declines to rule in or rule out land operations in Venezuela

President Donald Trump's top national security advisers briefed members of Congress about the administration's campaign against suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers on Tuesday, as the president suggested he could extend U.S. military operations to Mexico and Colombia.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine and CIA Director John Ratcliffe held a classified briefing for Congress' "Gang of Eight" representing intelligence committee and Senate and House of Representatives leaders from both parties after members of Congress clamored for more information.

Democrats emerged from the meeting dissatisfied. "I asked them what their strategy is, and what they were doing, and again, did not get satisfying answers at all," Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York told reporters after the briefing.

Republicans mostly declined to comment beyond saying they were still studying the issues.

Trump said in a wide-ranging interview with Politico conducted on Monday that he could extend anti-drug military operations to Mexico and Colombia and hinted at land operations in Venezuela. He also took aim at Europe, including another call for Ukrainian elections and support for Hungary's leader.

Trump repeatedly declined to rule out sending troops into Venezuela as part of an effort to bring down President Nicolas Maduro. Asked if he would consider using force against targets in other countries where the drug trade is highly active, including Mexico and Colombia, Trump said: "I would."

MONROE DOCTRINE 2.0

The U.S. military has massed much of its naval strength in the southern Caribbean since early September, conducting at least 22 strikes on boats in waters around Venezuela that have killed nearly 90 people.

The campaign has come under heightened scrutiny in recent days as details emerged of a September 2 decision to launch a second strike on a suspected drug boat that killed survivors of the first attack.

Trump's comments in the Politico interview reiterated much of his world view outlined in the sweeping national security strategy released last week that seeks to reframe the country's global role.

That strategy, which aides called the Trump Corollary to the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine asserting U.S. dominance in the Americas, focused on the U.S. reasserting itself in the Western Hemisphere while warning Europe that it must change course or face "erasure."

"They're weak," Trump told Politico, referring to Europe's political leaders. "They want to be so politically correct."

A spokesperson for the European Commission, asked about Trump's comments, defended the bloc's leaders and said the region remained committed to their union despite challenges such as Russia's war in Ukraine and Trump's tariff policies.

In the interview, Trump again said he thought it was time for Ukraine to hold elections as the war nears its four-year mark. Ukraine is expected to share a revised peace plan with the U.S. later on Tuesday, one day after hastily arranged talks with European leaders.

He also said he did not offer a financial lifeline to the government of ally Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who met with Trump last month at the White House.

"No, I didn't promise him, but he certainly asked for it," he said.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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James Whitman

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

President Donald Trump held talks with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz as the US pushes for a deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

The leaders spoke by phone Wednesday, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

The call came as Ukraine and its European allies prepared to send the Trump administration revised proposals for a possible peace agreement with Russia.

Three documents are being discussed between the countries. One is an overall framework to end the war, the second concerns security guarantees for Kyiv and the third focuses on Ukraine's reconstruction.

On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the main sticking points remained over territory and security guarantees.

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Forex

Central bank divergence is the critical variable

The case for a stronger British pound rests primarily on central bank divergence, with markets pricing a more aggressive Federal Reserve(Fed) easing cycle than Bank of England (BoE) cuts. If that plays out, sterling could push through 1.35 and target 1.38-1.40 over the coming year.

The Fed's trajectory is critical. If US unemployment rises on AI-related displacement and the Fed front-loads easing, the US dollar risk premium narrows sharply. But the question is whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing or whether it ends up cutting too late, triggering a harder downturn that supports the dollar through haven flows.

The Bank of England (BoE) faces its own dilemma. UK growth remains subdued, but services inflation is proving stickier than hoped. If the BoE accelerates easing due to growth weakness while inflation stays elevated, sterling struggles regardless of what the Fed does. The bank needs inflation to cooperate if it's going to maintain a measured pace that supports the currency.

Fiscal credibility and political stability matter

Fiscal credibility matters more for sterling than the market currently appreciates. Post-election budget plans will be scrutinised for evidence that the government can consolidate without strangling growth. Credible fiscal signals could tighten gilt spreads and provide underlying support for the pound.

The UK's challenge is smaller in scale than the US deficit problem, which creates an opening. US deficit concerns are larger and more intractable, and renewed focus on Treasury supply could weigh on the dollar if bond vigilantes resurface. If the UK demonstrates better fiscal management than the US – admittedly a low bar – sterling could benefit from a relative credibility premium.

UK political stability following the 2025 election could remove part of sterling's discount. The UK has carried a political risk premium since Brexit, and a period of stable government could narrow that meaningfully. US politics into the 2026 mid-cycle pose their own risks, especially around trade or tech policy shocks that raise dollar volatility.

Growth and inflation create competing pressures

Growth divergence cuts both ways. UK productivity has been dismal for years, but any upside surprise from investment would lift sterling. The bar is low, which means pleasant surprises are possible. US activity will hinge on how deep the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing cycle goes – a shallow cycle would keep the dollar supported.

If UK services inflation proves stickier than US inflation, sterling stays capped. Faster US disinflation would increase the likelihood of multiple Fed cuts and lessen dollar strength.

Risk appetite and the AI theme

Risk appetite provides another lens. A global risk-on environment driven by AI-led capex and tech earnings tends to weaken the dollar and lift pro-cyclical currencies like sterling. But any correction in tech valuations or jump in volatility would quickly reverse those flows.

Sterling benefits when investors are optimistic about global growth. A sustained period of risk-on sentiment would support the pound even if other factors remain neutral. The challenge is that risk appetite can shift quickly, often with little warning.

Base case and what could go wrong

The base case for mild sterling appreciation is plausible if the Fed cuts more quickly than the BoE and UK fiscal signals improve. This requires central bank divergence to play out as currently priced and for UK politics to stabilise post-election.

But it's a narrow path. The Fed needs to cut aggressively without signalling panic. The BoE needs inflation to cooperate. UK fiscal policy needs to be credible but not excessively tight. And global risk appetite needs to remain constructive.

The main risk is a deeper UK slowdown that forces the BoE to cut more aggressively, or a shorter, shallower US easing cycle. Either scenario would undermine the divergence trade that underpins sterling strength.

GBP/USD – technical analysis

Sterling has enjoyed a steady recovery from November’s lows at $1.30, and has regained the $1.32 level, which had marked the lows in May and August. The early September low at $1.33 is now being fought over, but a close above here helps to reinforce the bullish view.

Beyond this lies the September high at $1.37, and then on the July high at $1.38.

The weekly chart shows a continued recovery from the 2022 lows, with a series of higher highs and higher lows, leaving a bullish case intact for the time being.

GBP/USD weekly candlestick chart

GBP/USD daily candlestick chart

Source: ig

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Adam

Commodity

Silver’s breakout above $60 may be the opening act for Gold. With Treasury futures under pressure and term premium rising, the market is sending a clear message: risk is being repriced.

Silver breaks above $60 after an ascending triangle coil.

Gold bullish breakout risk builds.

Treasury futures slide; 30-year contract breaches 200DMA.

Term premium rising as political, legal events near.

Summary

Futures tied to the world’s benchmark interest rate sit at a pivotal level, reflecting a market clouded by extraordinary uncertainty. This isn’t just about the Fed’s next move—it’s about whether Treasuries and the US dollar can still be relied upon as safe havens in a world where politics, litigation, and fiscal risk are colliding.

With 30-year bond futures already breaking down through key levels and term premium reasserting itself, the message is clear: risk is being repriced, and it’s happening fast. Against that backdrop, the surge in gold and silver looks less like a coincidence and more like a rotation into alternative havens as confidence in traditional ones erodes.

Treasuries Under Strain

Political risk and legal uncertainty are now front and centre for U.S. markets. The looming Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could significantly widen the primary deficit and even open the door to litigation against the government. Add to that the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Fed chair and the unresolved status of Lisa Cook—dismissed by Trump earlier this year and reinstated by court order—and you have a cocktail of risks that challenge the perception of Fed independence.

When confidence in central bank autonomy wavers, traditional havens like Treasuries and dollar have understandably lost some of their shine. That’s exactly what we’re seeing: term premium is back, and it’s biting the long end of the U.S curve.

Benchmark Futures Teeter Above Key Level

Rejected comprehensively at the influential 50DMA last week, US 10-year Treasury note futures have spent the period since sliding lower, leaving the contract teetering at 114’20’0 less than 24 hours out from the Fed’s December FOMC meeting. 114’20’0 has acted as support and resistance for lengthy periods in 2025, underlining its importance for medium-term directional risks.

With RSI (14) pushing lower below 50, downside is favoured over upside, especially with MACD confirming the bearish signal. Should we see an extension of the unwind through 114’20’0, a retest of the 200DMA comes into view and, beyond that, the intersection of 113’16’0 support and the uptrend running from the January lows.

If the bearish move stalls at 114’20’0, the 50DMA may be targeted by bulls looking for a retracement, although price action beneath 115’00’0 should be monitored given there were buyers lurking beneath it for periods in November. It may therefore revert to offering resistance.

30-Year Bond Futures: A Warning Signal

Providing a warning on what may be on the way for benchmark Treasury futures, U.S. 30-year bond futures broke beneath the key 200-day moving average earlier this week, pointing to increased risk of yields lifting further for this key anchor for U.S. mortgage rates.

While it’s not textbook, the breakdown through the neckline from what resembles a head-and-shoulders pattern over the past three months adds to the sense that we could see more downside for price, putting 117’28 and the May uptrend in focus in the near term. A break of the latter would open the door for a far deeper flush, pointing to the possibility of underlying 30-year yields topping 5% again.

RSI (14) and MACD continue to deliver bearish signals, favouring downside over upside. Without a subsequent lift in 30-year inflation breakevens to accompany rising yields, the broader macro signal would point to increased term premium being demanded by traders to hold long-dated U.S. government debt. That means greater compensation to account for perceived risks.

Precious Metals: Alternative Havens?

The acceleration in the bullish move for both gold and silver kicked off in late August, the exact moment Donald Trump first began threatening Lisa Cook’s tenure as Fed governor. That timing is hard to ignore. It feeds the view that the surge in precious metals, alongside the move in rates, at least partially reflects concern over the Fed’s independence.

Gold and Silver Shine as Treasury Risks Mount_3

Coiling price action within an ascending triangle eventually resulted in a major breakout for silver above $54.50 resistance, sending the price surging above $60. While RSI (14) and MACD sit in extremely overbought territory on the weekly timeframe, convention suggests there could still be more left in the tank for silver, even with stretched positioning. The price action in silver may also be relevant for gold given similarities in its setup prior to the breakout.

Gold and Silver Shine as Treasury Risks Mount_4

Like silver, gold saw an acceleration in the bullish move from late August, before topping out and retracing beneath $4,000, then resuming its push higher. Now sitting beneath the October highs within an ascending triangle, bullish breakout risk is something to monitor as we head towards year-end.

$4,245 is the level to watch overhead in the near term, having capped bullion twice in November. RSI (14) and MACD are overbought and showing signs of waning topside strength, but the overall momentum signal still favours bullish setups over bearish. It’s more a cautionary message to bulls than an outright warning that bears are gaining control.

Event Risk Looms in Early 2026

With the back end of the U.S. curve selling off into key monetary and political events, the traditional safe-haven playbook may be in the process of being rewritten. That might explain why precious metals are carrying the haven torch right now. If Fed independence remains in question and legal risks materialise, we may see continued stress in Treasuries and a sustained bid for precious metals as we move into 2026.