US Faces Winter Blackout Risks from Data Centers´ Power Needs

Stocks

Energy

Summary:

Winter is especially risky because solar generation is available for fewer hours and battery operations may be affected. Gas supplies, meantime, could drop off because of freeze-offs or pipeline constraints.

Rising electricity demand from data centers is raising the risk of blackouts across a wide swath of the US during extreme conditions this winter, according to the regulatory body overseeing grid stability.

Power consumption has grown 20 gigawatts from the previous winter, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. said Tuesday in its winter assessment. A gigawatt is the typical size of a nuclear power reactor. Supply hasn’t kept up.

As as result, a repeat of severe winter storms in North America that unleash a polar vortex, of which there have been several in recent years, could trigger energy shortfalls across the US from the Northwest to Texas to the Carolinas. All regions have adequate resources in normal conditions.

“Data centers are a main contributor to load growth in those areas where demand has risen substantially since last winter.” Mark Olson, manager of the reliability assessment, said in an emailed statement.

America’s power grid has been facing rising blackout risks for years as aging infrastructure is increasingly stressed by severe storms and wildfires. Now the data center boom, driven by the spread of artificial intelligence, is adding to the strain by supercharging US electricity growth after being stagnant for two decades.

The areas designated by NERC as having elevated risks of shortfall shifted from the previous winter to include the US southeast and parts of the West, including Washington and Oregon.

The Texas grid continues to be highlighted after cascading failures in February 2021 left millions of people without power for days and resulted in more than 200 deaths. New England also continues to face elevated risks on potential natural gas pipeline constraints.

Source: Bloomberg

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Commodity

Political

Oil rose as hawkish rhetoric by the European Union’s top diplomat raised expectations that sanctions on Russia will tighten.

West Texas Intermediate gained 1.4% to settle under $61 a barrel on Tuesday, pushing higher after the EU’s Kaja Kallas said that Moscow’s aggression against the bloc should be considered terrorism. The comments come against a background of surging diesel-market tightness, in which Russia is a significant player, with the difference between the two nearest ICE gasoil contracts surging Tuesday. Futures for the European benchmark rose by 4.5%.

Adding to bullish sentiment, the price of Russia’s flagship crude plunged to the lowest in over two years, with just days to go before US sanctions take effect against giant producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC over Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

Other impacts are emerging. Major Asian buyers paused at least some purchases. And traders making physical deliveries of diesel under ICE Gasoil contracts will soon be banned from supplying barrels made with Russian crude in third countries, ICE said.

Still, US benchmark futures are down this year as expectations for a glut weigh on the outlook, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a record surplus in 2026. The oversupply is being driven by the return of idled output from OPEC and its allies, as well as more supplies from outside of the group.

But for now, the price of WTI is staying stubbornly above the $60 mark, according to Frank Monkam, head of macro trading at Buffalo Bayou Commodities.

“It’s going to take a lot more than just a repeat of the same negative headlines to push the market below $60 a barrel unless we see a total unraveling of risk assets, particularly equities,” he said. “Absent of that, I think we’re still very vulnerable to an upside push here in the form of a short squeeze, if we see any headlines like we did today with the EU pressuring Russia on sanctions.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Central Bank

Stocks

Brazil’s government on Tuesday shut down Banco Master, a bank worth up to $16 billion in assets, following a sprawling federal police fraud investigation.

Central Bank executive Fabio Carlos Ferreira said in a statement that all assets belonging to Banco Master and its current and former administrators have been seized. The bank, which has faced liquidity problems for months, is now under the control of a government-appointed administrator.

Clients and creditors will seek to recover their money from a private entity sponsored by other banks, a standard procedure in previous Brazilian bank crises.

Hours earlier, the director-general of Brazil’s federal police, Andrei Rodrigues, told lawmakers that the force had uncovered a 12-billion Brazilian reais ($2 billion) fraud within the country’s banking system. He did not publicly confirm the case involved Banco Master or the state-run bank BRB, which had sought to acquire Banco Master months ago but was denied by authorities.

Brazil's federal police said Tuesday's raid focused on financial institutions suspected of fraudulent and reckless management and involvement in a criminal organization, among other crimes. The force confirmed the arrest of six people, the freezing of billions of Brazilian reais, and the seizure of luxury cars, artworks and watches.

The force also said the case involves one bank issuing bonds with interest rates much above the market average and another bank buying those despite liquidity risks.

Local media reported that several executives, including a key shareholder, were arrested. Brazil’s federal police did not respond to a request from The Associated Press to confirm the names of the banks involved in Tuesday’s raid and of the executives and former executives arrested so far.

Shortly before Banco Master was shut down, Brazilian investment group Fictor said they had agreed to buy it. The operation was called off.

Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad expressed confidence in the central bank’s decision, saying the shutdown was ordered after a thorough investigation.

“The central bank is the regulatory authority of the financial system, and I’m certain that, to have reached this point, the process must have been very robust,” Haddad said.

Source: AP

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Stocks

Political

A US district judge on Tuesday ruled against the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in its antitrust lawsuit against social media giant Meta (META).

In his ruling, Judge James Boasberg said the FTC failed to prove that Meta purchased Instagram and WhatsApp with the goal of eliminating them as competitors in the social media market.

The FTC was seeking to force Meta to divest itself of both Instagram and WhatsApp, despite the commission originally approving their purchases in 2012 and 2014, respectively.

Boasberg said government lawyers insufficiently argued that Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat make up what they referred to as a personal social networking market. Instead, the judge found Meta's argument that if there was a private social networking market, it doesn't exist anymore, and that the company also has to compete with major rivals such as TikTok and Google's (GOOG, GOOGL) YouTube.

"With apps surging and receding, chasing one craze and moving on from others, and adding new features with each passing year, the FTC has understandably struggled to fix the boundaries of Meta's product market," Boasberg wrote in his ruling.

"Even so, it continues to insist that Meta competes with the same old rivals it has for the last decade, that the company holds a monopoly among that small set, and that it maintained that monopoly through anticompetitive acquisitions. Whether or not Meta enjoyed monopoly power in the past, though, the agency must show that it continues to hold such power now," Boasberg added.

The FTC's case could have been devastating for Meta. The company would have lost one of its most important moneymakers in Instagram, which has helped it better compete with TikTok, while also having to divorce itself from one of the world's leading messaging apps in WhatsApp.

The Trump administration initially sued Meta in 2020, and the Biden administration continued the matter.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg and President Trump had an acrimonious relationship after the CEO suspended Trump's account following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. Trump subsequently threatened to jail Zuckerberg.

But Zuckerberg has had several face-to-face interactions since President Trump took office for the second time. Meta has also donated to Trump's inauguration fund, as well as to the construction of the White House's new East Wing.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Cryptocurrency

The asset once expected to “go to the moon” is struggling to keep pace with Treasuries. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% from its 2025 peak, lagging behind everything from tech stocks to T-bills.

Once promoted as a high-growth play, an inflation hedge, and a portfolio diversifier, the world’s largest cryptocurrency now faces the prospect of ending the year in the red — without fulfilling any of those roles.

Gold — often dismissed by Bitcoin believers as outdated — is easily outperforming the token, which the crypto faithful have dubbed digital gold. So are long-term bonds and the Nasdaq, in a year defined by falling interest rates and shrinking risk appetite.

The underperformance is even starker against benchmarks Bitcoin was supposed to outclass. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up sharply this year, and even the US Utilities Index — a byword for low-volatility, low-growth stability — has outpaced Bitcoin’s slide.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000 — roughly the average entry price of all ETF inflows since their launch — meaning the typical ETF investor was, for a while at least, underwater. The largest cryptocurrency climbed off the seven-month low to trade about 1.5% higher to $93,241 as of 11:46 a.m. in New York.

For many, this was supposed to be crypto’s breakout year. A pro-crypto White House, new rules allowing launch of exchange-traded funds across tokens, and a wave of institutional inflows had seemingly secured digital assets a place in mainstream finance. Instead, for investors who bought near the highs, Bitcoin’s 2025 story feels familiar: a burst of euphoria, a crash, and growing disbelief.

Once pitched as everything from an inflation hedge to a growth engine and an uncorrelated store of value, the token has fallen short on every count of late. Volatile? Always. Reliable? Less and less.

That matters for professional investors. In diversified portfolios, Bitcoin has failed to offset losses from tariff-driven selloffs or amplify gains during rebounds. Nor has it acted independently when other markets turned volatile. For fund managers who saw crypto as a strategic addition, the disappointment goes beyond performance — it cuts to purpose. Great Bitcoin Crash of 2025 Has It Lagging Bonds, Gold and More_1

Great Bitcoin Crash of 2025 Has It Lagging Bonds, Gold and More_1

Theories about what went wrong vary. Some blame October’s violent crash, which erased roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions and left deep psychological scars across the market. “10th October is definitely a longer lasting shock to the market than it appears on the surface,” said George Mandres, senior trader at XBTO Trading. “As much as market participants will try to forget or brush it off, it will remain deeply embedded in the appetite of market-makers to provide liquidity and in market participants’ conviction and risk appetite.”

Others point to broader market weakness. “Asia printed softer growth data overnight, Chinese equities weakened, and global tech valuations retreated as investors reassessed pricing ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on November 19,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at digital asset analytics firm BRN. “With liquidity conditions already thin, correlations snapped back to their high-beta defaults. Crypto traded not as a hedge, but as the most leveraged expression of macro tightening.” Great Bitcoin Crash of 2025 Has It Lagging Bonds, Gold and More_2

Great Bitcoin Crash of 2025 Has It Lagging Bonds, Gold and More_2

“Talks of an incoming bear market are starting to ring louder and louder,” said Augustine Fan, director at SignalPlus.

To be sure, Bitcoin still trades well above levels seen before Donald Trump’s re-election, and its history is filled with sharp declines followed by spectacular recoveries. Over longer horizons, returns remain impressive. But for now, traders are positioned defensively. Demand for downside protection around the $85,000 and $80,000 levels has surged, and options data suggest less than a 5% chance of Bitcoin revisiting its record high above $126,000 by year-end, according to data from Coinbase-owned Deribit.

What Bloomberg Strategists say...

“For now, Bitcoin looks like it’s trying to reassert its leadership role — only this time, as a sign of stabilization rather than stress. If $90,000 holds, it could mark the moment where the digital asset space starts leading risk sentiment higher, not lower.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Commodity

China–U.S. Trade War

China significantly accelerated its purchases of American soybeans in a move that ends a temporary pause and appears to signal a commitment to a trade truce reached late last month.

The US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday announced the sale of 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025-2026 marketing year, the biggest daily purchase in two years. That brings China’s total known purchases of US soybeans since early October to just over one million tons.

US President Donald Trump said Tuesday he wants China to “speed up” soybean purchases, and asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to make the request directly to Beijing. Even so, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that “our relationship with China has been very good. And as far as buying our farm products, they’re pretty much on schedule.”

Earlier, Bloomberg reported that state-owned agriculture trader Cofco Group booked nearly 20 cargoes of the American oilseed on Monday for delivery in December and January, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak to media.

The sales were from Pacific Northwest ports and US Gulf terminals, they said. Cofco did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

The purchases have reignited market optimism around the soybean trade between the two agricultural powerhouses, which was worth more than $12 billion last year. Until recently, China had held off buying US soybeans for much of the season as the country sought a bargaining chip during tariff negotiations. The move hurt American growers, who have been challenged by inflation and high farming input costs.

Still, US beans are already more expensive than Brazil’s ahead of what’s likely to be another bumper harvest in South America. Industry group Abiove earlier Tuesday hiked Brazil’s soy output for the incoming harvest to a new record of 177.7 million tons. China Makes Biggest Purchase of US Soybeans in Two Years_1

China Makes Biggest Purchase of US Soybeans in Two Years_1

Chicago soybeans were choppy Tuesday, following a Monday rally that saw prices at a fresh 17-month high.

“Traders have one eye on exports and one on South America’s crop-growing weather,” said Total Farm Marketing analyst Naomi Blohm.

Beijing’s latest purchases still leave plenty to be done in the coming months, at a time when stockpiles are plentiful. Washington has said Beijing pledged to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans by end of this year, followed by 25 million tons annually over the next three years.

While China has yet to confirm the specific purchase commitments, it has moved to reduce tariffs on the crop and lifted import bans on three American exporters, including CHS Inc., reciprocating similar conciliatory actions from the US.

“Close attention will be paid as to whether China continues to secure US soybeans,” AgResource Co. said in a note, adding that US soybeans were being purchased at a premium to Brazilian prices.

“The point is that China did not want to buy US soybeans — it was a political push from the Trump administration,” AgResource said in a separate note. Still, it expects additional purchases from China will be announced Wednesday.

Source: Bloomberg

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Central Bank

The Bank of England will cut interest rates in December and again early next year as inflation cools over coming months, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who last month expected borrowing costs to remain unchanged for the remainder of this year.

Next month's meeting will follow British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget on November 26 where she is no longer expected to raise income tax but will make up an expected shortfall through smaller tax rises from other sources.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to leave rates unchanged earlier this month, with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey casting the deciding vote, wanting to wait for evidence of declining inflation before committing to a cut.

Nearly 80% of economists, 48 of 61, expect the BoE will cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% on December 18, according to a Reuters poll taken November 13-18. The rest forecast no move.

That compares with 54% who expected unchanged rates for the remainder of the year in an October survey. Around that proportion now expect a follow-up cut to 3.50% in Q1 2026.

"We see a December rate cut as the default action, absent any wildly hawkish surprises in the next two inflation prints," said Gabriella Willis, UK economist at Santander CIB.

"We expect Governor Bailey to remain the swing voter. The October and November inflation prints, alongside signs of a softening jobs market, will be the final green light to a cut."

Interest rate futures have almost completely priced in a December cut.

Inflation has been stuck at 3.8%, nearly double the BoE's 2% target, since July. Data due to be released on Wednesday are likely to show a cooling to 3.6% in October.

Median forecasts predicted inflation averaging 3.0% and 2.5%, respectively, in the following two quarters.

Growth is expected to average 1.4% this year, slowing to 1.1% next year, according to poll medians.

"We are still expecting the Budget to be disinflationary, but less so than our original base case which included a larger hit to demand from lifting income tax," said Willis.