US Crude Exports Hit Four-Year Low in July on low Domestic Supplies

Commodity

Energy

Summary:

Exports of U.S. crude to Asia fell to 862,000 bpd in July, the lowest since January 2019, and well below the three-month average of 1.1 million bpd, Kpler data showed.

U.S. crude oil exports eased in July to the lowest levels in nearly four years on low domestic supplies and as Asian and European buyers found cheaper alternatives, undermining U.S. President Donald Trump's push for more foreign countries to purchase U.S. energy supplies.

The decline in exports from the top global producer underscores the extent to which oil flows are dictated by price and the economics of shipping, even as the Trump administration recently has pushed countries to commit to more U.S. oil purchases as part of trade negotiations.

U.S. crude exports tumbled to about 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, the lowest since October 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged demand, according to data from ship tracking firm Kpler.

Exports averaged 3.2 million bpd over the last five weeks, compared with 3.6 million bpd in June, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The decline came as the spread between European and U.S. benchmark crude futures narrowed, making it less economically attractive to ship barrels across the Atlantic.

"Markets are driven by economics, and companies are driven by profits, and so companies are going to continue to purchase what is the cheapest or the best feedstock for them," said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.

"There's a very, very incremental impact (from trade agreements on U.S. crude exports), but it's not going to move the needle," Smith added.

WTI's discount to Brent in May and June, when oil delivered in July is traded, averaged about $3 a barrel, well above the $4 discount that typically encourages foreign countries to buy U.S. oil.

"There's just not the incentive there to be pushing those barrels out. They're more needed at home than they are abroad," said Smith.

Exports of U.S. crude to Asia fell to 862,000 bpd in July, the lowest since January 2019, and well below the three-month average of 1.1 million bpd, Kpler data showed.

China, the world's top oil consumer, took no barrels for the fifth straight month as trade tensions continued between the two countries, while shipments to South Korea, the second largest buyer of U.S. crude in 2024, nearly halved in July, and those to India fell 46%.

Meanwhile, exports to Europe fell 14% to 1.6 million bpd from June.

Inventories of oil at the key storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, hovered just above operational levels, amid lower Canadian oil flows due to a wildfire and last year's Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. That kept more domestic barrels in the U.S., traders and analysts said.

Exports of Canadian crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast also eased 31% to 78,000 bpd in July, as U.S. refiners snapped up the barrels to replace lower Venezuelan and Mexican imports.

SHORT-LIVED REBOUND SEEN

Exports to Asia of U.S. crude are expected to step up in the fourth quarter as Middle East oil prices strengthened, making it more economic to ship oil to Asia from the U.S., trade sources said last week.

Energy Aspects forecast about a 400,000-bpd increase to August from July in U.S. Gulf Coast exports.

While Washington's push for countries to commit to energy purchases as part of trade deals may help inch exports higher in the short term, traders and analysts remained skeptical of any longer-term boost to exports from the agreements.

South Korea said it would purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas or other energy products, while the European Union pledged to buy $250 billion of U.S. energy supplies per year.

Pakistan is set to import its first-ever cargo of U.S. crude in October, while India's biggest refiner Indian Oil Corp bought 4.5 million barrels of U.S. crude this week as Trump threatens tariff hikes on the country for its purchases of Russian oil.

Purchases from trade deals would likely only push up U.S. exports for two or three months, said Jeremy Irwin, global crude lead at Energy Aspects.

Further, rising OPEC+ supplies especially into the end of the year are set to increase options for European and Asian refiners, and could weigh on export demand for light sweet U.S. crude.

The group agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 bpd for September, marking a full and early reversal of its largest tranche of output cuts.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Commodity

Union Jack Oil (UJO), a UK-listed oil and gas firm, is exploring a new path to monetize its gas resources by turning to Bitcoin mining, per an Aug. 7 statement.

According to the firm, the move is focused on harnessing the natural gas from its West Newton site in East Yorkshire to generate electricity for powering crypto mining operations.

Why Bitcoin mining?

Union Jack’s Executive Chairman, David Bramhill, expressed confidence in the project’s potential, noting that the Bitcoin mining strategy could lead to the creation of a new Bitcoin Treasury strategy for the oil and gas company.

To achieve this, the firm stated that Rathlin Energy and its joint venture partners, including Reabold Resources, have signed a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) with 360 Energy, a Texas-based firm specializing in natural gas monetization.

The agreement outlines a strategy to install gas-powered electricity infrastructure and Bitcoin mining units directly at the production site.

The initiative aims to use gas from the West Newton A and B wells to power onsite data centers. Speaking about these centers, Bramhill said:

“We continue to believe that this asset holds material value which could eventually deliver significant volumes of onshore low-carbon sales gas into the UK`s important domestic natural gas market. West Newton is estimated to contain gross recoverable 2C gas resources of almost 200 billion cubic feet, according to an independent assessment undertaken by RPS in 2022.”

These centers will run 360 Energy’s “In-Field Computing” (IFC) system, designed to convert raw gas into electricity for crypto mining.

According to Union Jack, early production concepts like this allow them to unlock value from existing wells without waiting for full field development. If successful, the model could be replicated at other nearby discoveries.

Mining difficulty surging

Union Jack’s Bitcoin mining plans come at an interesting time when Bitcoin mining difficulty is rising.

According to data from Cloverpool, Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to surge to an all-time high of over 130 trillion on Aug. 9.

Despite this milestone, the broader growth in mining activity appears to be decelerating.

According to insights from Blockware, the year-to-date increase in mining difficulty stands at just 16%. If this pace holds, 2025 could register as the slowest year of mining difficulty growth in Bitcoin’s history.

The slowdown is primarily attributed to maturing hardware capabilities, infrastructure limitations, and the growing interest of data center operators in alternative sectors like artificial intelligence.

Blockware suggested that this deceleration in mining difficulty is ultimately bullish for Bitcoin miners, as it translates into less competition for the daily 450 BTC mined.

Source: Cryptoslate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

India’s stock market showed little sign of panic a day after the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on goods from the country and threatened secondary sanctions over its continued oil trade with Russia.

The Sensex, the benchmark index for India’s blue-chip stocks, ended the day around 0.1% higher on Aug. 7.

From bureaucrats to businesses, there’s a broad consensus in India that the latest escalation from the U.S. is only a pressure tactic to fast-track trade talks. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi now has something he didn’t have, even a day earlier: the support of the Indian opposition to push back.

Rahul Gandhi, the leader of India’s largest opposition party, the Indian National Congress, described the penalty for Russian oil purchases as “economic blackmail” by Trump.

Consequently, the Indian negotiators’ resolve may only get stronger, especially in talks over areas that directly affect the country’s farmers.

“India will never compromise on the interests of the country’s farmers, fishermen, and livestock breeders. I know it will cost me personally, but I am ready,” Modi said on Thursday morning, hours after the U.S. increased tariffs.

Economic impact

By most estimates, the cost of losing trade with the U.S. is significant for India but not debilitating.

The most pessimistic estimate is from Morgan Stanley. It says that if all goods are subject to a 50% duty, the impact on India’s gross domestic product is likely to be 60 basis points, about $23 billion at current exchange rates.

On the other hand, the cost of allowing U.S. dairy exports into India — one of the most contentious issues— is expected to cost India 1.8 lakh crore rupees ($20 billion) alone, according to SBI Research, a unit of the country’s largest bank. A little over half of that burden will hit farmers directly in the form of falling retail prices, SBI said, unless the government compensates for the loss.

The additional tariffs could also be catastrophic for India’s gem and jewelry companies, a spokesperson for the industry lobby told CNBC-TV18 on Thursday, while Indian seafood exporters, who sell the bulk of their produce to the U.S., may lose nearly $3 billion a year at the 25% tariff effective today, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

India’s labour-intensive textile industry, meanwhile, expects $5 billion worth of business to move away from India in the next few months due to the tariffs.

High U.S. duties will also affect India’s ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), according to Arvind Sanger from Geosphere Capital Management, a New York-based broker.

India’s position is bolstered by the fact that over 60% of its GDP comes from domestic consumption, however.

The Indian rupee will be the immediate casualty, according to Mahesh Patil, who oversees more than 3 lakh crore rupees ($35 billion) worth of financial assets at the Mumbai-based Aditya Birla Mutual Fund as its chief investment officer. However, Patil also noted that the rupee settling at lower levels against the U.S. dollar may offset some of the hit on Indian exporters, and the impact may be visible with a lag of a few months.

About 40% of India’s entire trade with the U.S. is in services, which is not even a point of discussion so far as the U.S. exports more services to India than it imports. Trump also hasn’t paid heed to the call for curbs on the H1-B visa, which is a route mostly used by Indian nationals looking to fill talent gaps — particularly in the tech sector — in the U.S.

India’s middle ground

Amid Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions on India, Modi is planning his first visit to China since 2018. And, close on the heels of U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval is visiting Russia in an effort to pursue India’s interests through diplomacy.

Meanwhile, India’s foreign ministry has hit out at what it calls U.S. hypocrisy in ignoring its own trade with Russia that has continued through the war in Ukraine, an allegation that Trump brushed aside but didn’t deny. It’s also important to note that Indian companies own stakes in many Russian oil fields.

Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro, has also alleged that India uses the dollars from trade with America to pay for Russian oil, however most of India’s oil trade with Russia is settled in dirhams, the currency of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), refiners have told CNBC-TV18.

India has been a lot more willing than Brazil and China to find a middle ground with the U.S.

The government has already reduced duties on imports of U.S. motorcycles, bourbon, ethernet switches, synthetic flavoring essences and fish hydrolysate, to name a few. It has also allowed Tesla

to set up shop in Mumbai and withdrew the equalization levy on internet giants, widely known as the Google tax.

India has also increased its oil purchases from the U.S. by 120% in the last six months, source in the Indian government told CNBC-TV18, which was one of Trump’s primary demands when Modi visited the White House in February 2025.

However, since then, Trump has moved the goalposts from just reducing the U.S.′ trade deficit with India to the South Asian country’s relationship with Russia.

Watch and wait?

Trump has said India’s purchases of Russian oil are why it’s now facing tariffs of 50%, with this full rate due to be imposed 21 days after Trump’s executive order was signed Wednesday.

Despite this, New Delhi’s tone and rhetoric have been milder than the statements coming from Beijing or Rio De Janeiro, but it’s also sticking to its red lines. India is keen to use the 21 days before to find a win-win situation, a government official told CNBC-TV18.

While the Indian government hasn’t hinted at any escalation on its end, some experts believe that India has some legal options at its disposal.

“It is important that we talk to our trading partners and like-minded countries who have been hit by similar actions by the U.S.,” Anjali Prasad, the former Indian ambassador to the World Trade Organization, said.

“Only when we get together, decide on a strategy, will there be some action effectively possible, because there is strength in numbers.”

The fact that Trump is due to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming days, meanwhile, shows that the U.S.′ priority is to end Russia’s war on Ukraine.

If there’s a breakthrough in talks between Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, India’s oil purchases from Russia might no longer be a problem.

The incentive for India to watch and wait, instead of rushing with concessions, is right there.

Source: cnbc

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

The oil market is shrugging off President Donald Trump’s threats to impose heavy tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy exports.

Trump has given Russia until Friday to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. If Moscow does not comply, the U.S. will impose 100% “secondary tariffs” on countries that buy Russian exports, the president has said. This would in theory force countries to choose between buying Russian oil or trading with the U.S.

India, China and Turkey are the most exposed as the three biggest importers of Russian oil. Trump on Wednesday targeted India with a 25% tariff for buying Russian crude, a much lower rate than the 100% penalty he originally threatened. Oil prices closed 1% lower as traders seem to believe the president is bluffing and the tariff won’t really go into effect.

“Given the price response to the news, it would appear that current threats are considered a negotiation tactic by Trump and little more,” Matt Smith, an oil analyst at Kpler, told CNBC.

India is Russia’s biggest oil customer, importing about 1.7 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data. If Trump follows through on the tariff, oil prices would jump because barrels that Russia exports to India cannot be easily rerouted to other destinations, Smith said. Moscow would have to shut in some production, which would take supply out of the global market, he said.

But the market senses right now that Trump is going to back down, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy. The additional tariff against India does not go into effect for 21 days, providing time for the countries to reach an agreement.

“Traders believe that there will be a deal, that it really won’t go into effect,” McNally said of the tariff. “And if it did, India would probably just pay the tariffs and keep importing Russian oil,” he said of traders’ thinking.

The Trump administration has not always backed up its words with actions when it comes to energy sanctions, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a note to clients. Iran’s oil exports, for example, remain elevated despite declarations from the White House that it is imposing a maximum pressure campaign, Croft said.

“Our base case is that Russia will resist making serious concessions, believing that President Trump will blink at imposing measures that could push energy prices materially higher and that the White House’s newfound support for Ukraine will dissipate,” Croft told clients in the July 30 note.

Steep tariffs on Russian oil buyers would jeopardize Trump’s push to reduce energy prices. The president said last month that he wants U.S. crude prices to fall below $64 per barrel. In an interview with CNBC Tuesday, the president said low oil prices would force Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

“If you sanction hard enough that Russia can’t sell its oil, prices at the pump will soar — that’s just the barrel math,” McNally said.

Trump seemed to acknowledge Wednesday that there would not be ceasefire by his deadline. He said his special envoy Steve Witkoff “had a highly productive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

“Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Trump and Putin have agreed in principle to meet in the coming days, according to the Kremlin. If Putin refuses to make concessions, Trump will likely continue down the road of energy sanctions, McNally said. This includes targeting big importers of Russian oil, namely China.

“He will have to go gingerly because of the blowback risk in terms of higher oil prices,” McNally said. “He has to do so in a way that isn’t counterproductive and that’s a tricky problem to solve.”

Source: cnbc

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Political

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top candidate to serve as the central bank’s chair among President Donald Trump’s advisers as they look for a replacement for Jerome Powell, according to people familiar with the matter.

Trump advisers are impressed with Waller’s willingness to move on policy based on forecasting, rather than current data, and his deep knowledge of the Fed system as a whole, the people said. Waller has met with the president’s team about the role, but has yet to meet with Trump himself, the people said on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, and Kevin Hassett, currently Trump’s National Economic Council director, also remain in contention for the job, the people said, which will open up when Powell’s tenure as chair expires in May 2026.

“President Trump will continue to nominate the most competent and experienced individuals,” White House Spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “Unless it comes from President Trump himself, however, any discussion about personnel decisions should be regarded as pure speculation.”

A representative for the Fed declined to comment.

“I think that Governor Waller has really built up a really impressive track record in the last two years at the Fed with his predictions about inflation, and with his predictions about where Fed policy needed to move to respond to that inflation,” Stephen Miran, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Thursday.

Trump said on Wednesday that the administration has narrowed the list of candidates for Fed chair to three people. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are on the search committee, Trump said.

Hassett has met with Trump to discuss the chair job and has also impressed both the president and the team, Bloomberg News has reported. Warsh interviewed for the job in 2017 but was ultimately passed over for Powell. In November, he was also considered to serve as Treasury secretary.

The search for a new Fed chair is happening simultaneously with talks to fill a soon-to-be vacant slot from Adriana Kugler’s early departure from the Fed board. Trump said he planned to fill that seat with a temporary governor, who would serve for just a handful of months.

Later, he will name a candidate for a 14-year Fed governor term which opens up in early 2026. Trump is likely to appoint someone to that seat who has stated a preference for lower interest rates.

Last week, Waller was one of two Fed board members to vote against the central bank’s decision to hold its benchmark rate steady for a fifth consecutive time. He and his colleague Michelle Bowman, both Trump nominees, preferred a quarter-point reduction, citing growing signs of labor-market weakness.

A few days after the Fed announced its decision to hold interest rates, a jobs report showed that job growth cooled sharply over the previous three months, lending credence to Waller and Bowman’s dissent.

Waller’s views differed from those of Powell and other policymakers on the board, who have so far described the labor market as broadly solid and have supported a patient approach to adjusting rates so that the central bank can continue to gauge how Trump’s tariffs will impact the economy. That view has frustrated the president, who has repeatedly assailed Powell for not cutting rates sooner.

Waller, a Ph.D. economist, has attracted the attention of Trump’s economic advisers over the past year as the president talked about the economy while on the campaign trail.

Fed Experience

Trump nominated Waller to the Fed in 2020. Before that, he had served as a research director and executive vice president at the St. Louis Fed. In 2020, senators voted 48-47 to support Waller’s nomination to the Fed board.

As a Fed governor in 2022, Waller engaged in a public debate with influential economists outside the Fed, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, with his argument that the central bank could successfully lower the post-pandemic inflation without significantly raising unemployment. In the end, Waller proved right as inflation came back below 3% and unemployment never moved back above 4.2%.

Trump’s dissatisfaction with Powell has triggered questions about whether his next pick to lead the Fed would back monetary policy independence for the central bank. Waller said in April that the Fed’s independence is “critical to the well-functioning of the US economy.”

He noted that markets, Fed watchers and consumers all criticize the chair.

“If you don’t like being criticized, don’t take the job,” Waller said. “The president is free to say what he wants to on policy, just like anybody else.”

Last month, Waller told Bloomberg Television that he hasn’t yet directly heard from the president about the Fed chair role.

“If the president contacted me and said, ‘I want you to serve,’ I would do it,” he said in July. “But he has not contacted me.”

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Gold and silver prices are higher and hit two-week highs in midday U.S. trading Thursday. News that China’s central bank continues to add to its gold reserves and more-bullish near-term technical postures in both gold and silver recently are boosting both metals today. December gold was last up $17.70 at $3,451.00. September silver prices were last up $0.438 at $38.34.

The People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves in July, marking nine straight months of purchases that are helping it diversify its holdings away from U.S. dollars. Bloomberg reported gold held by the central bank increased by 60,000 troy ounces, to 73.96 million troy ounces last month. This brings the total of purchases since last November to around 36 tons. Buying by central banks, including China’s, is among the key drivers of the 30% rally that gold has seen this year. While the central bank buying spree is expected to continue, the pace has slowed amid elevated gold prices.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures are slightly lower and trading around $64.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.233%.

Gold, silver gain on central banks buying gold, bullish charts_1

Technically, December gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $3,509.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $3,319.20. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3,470.30 and then at $3,500.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,430.00 and then at $3,400.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Gold, silver gain on central banks buying gold, bullish charts_2

September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $39.91. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $36.28. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $38.76 and then at $39.00. Next support is seen at $38.00 and then at $37.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Source: kitco

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Owen Li

Economic

Political

President Donald Trump's overall and economic approval ratings remain in negative territory despite a slight improvement in the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.

More troubling for the president, however, could be that the survey shows positive approval of only one of seven key issues, with the public holding negative views on his handling of tariffs, inflation, taxes and federal spending.

There also was a modest rise in the public's preference for the Democrats to control Congress, rising to a 49%-44% advantage from 48%-46% in April. It was the largest lead for Democrats since 2021.

At the same time, favorability of the Democratic party among registered voters sank to a net -32 percentage points, with 24% positive and 56% negative. The -32 rating appeared to be the lowest rating for either party going back to at least 1996.

The public disapproves of the job Trump is doing as president by a 51%-46% margin, up from 51%-44% in the April survey. The change is within the survey's +/-3.1 percentage point margin of error as is the gap in his approval rating.

The president's economic approval rating remains negative with 45% approving and 53% disapproving, a modest gain from 43%-55% in April. But it's the second time in a row that his economic approval was worse than his overall approval, a reversal from his first term when the president was always stronger on the economy.

"What seemed to be keeping President Trump's overall approval level from really dropping down was the strong economy and the credit that he got from the public," said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the survey's Democratic pollster. "He cannot rely on that at this point."

Overall, the survey of 1,000 people nationwide conducted July 29-Aug 3 showed a series of conflicting political and economic crosscurrents, with individuals and demographic groups offering sometimes contradictory opinions.

"Trump's approval is stable, but his individual ratings are down on issue after issue, except for tariffs," said Micah Roberts, partner with Public Opinion Strategies, which conducted the poll and served as its Republican pollster. "Economic optimism is higher, but there's been no relief in this data from inflation."

For example, just 39% of Independents approve of the president's handling of the economy, and that drops to 24% on inflation. Even Republicans are 9 points lower on inflation than their economic approval rating.

The president is underwater on inflation by 23 points, with 37% approving and 60% disapproving, unchanged from the last survey. The conflicts could be the result of the public simply having trouble keeping up with the breakneck changes to the economy, immigration, taxation and the political system issuing from the Trump administration.

Party-line split on Trump

But Republicans remain solidly behind the president and Democrats solidly against. Half of Independents disapprove of the president, with 36% approving.

Roberts added that the survey is "capturing a country that's in a shifting moment across all of these issues."

Views on the economy are equally conflicting.

On the current state of the economy, attitudes have improved, with 31% saying it's excellent or good and 68% calling it just fair or poor. Those are the best numbers since the early years of the Biden administration as the nation emerged from the pandemic, and an 11-point improvement from the CNBC survey in April.

The move was driven largely by growing optimism among Republicans, with some improvement among Independents. But the outlook for the economy barely budged, with 36% saying it will get better, 17% saying it will stay the same, and 46% expecting it to get worse.

Republicans became a bit less optimistic and Independents somewhat less pessimistic.

Views on the stock market also improved with 46% saying it's a good time to invest and 42% saying it's a bad time. The sharp improvement to +4 percentage points from -15 percentage points has come with a surge in stocks that followed the president backing off in from sweeping reciprocal tariffs and the passage of tax legislation.

Even 36% of those with no investments think it's a good time invest, the highest on record for a group that is typically negative on stocks.

Views on other matters

But the survey shows some gathering areas of concern for the president on key issues.

Approval on measures taken to secure the southern border is the only one of seven that is above water with a 53% to 44% positive approval rating. The public is evenly split on deportations 49% to 49%, with sharp divides by party, age, race, gender, geography, income and education.

There are even splits within parties.

For example, 98% of MAGA Republicans, who represent 26% of the party, approve of the deportations, compared with 61% of non-MAGA Republicans. That compares with 97% of liberal Democrats disapproving of Trump's deportations and 78% of moderate Democrats.

There also is unambiguous disapproval of the President's foreign policy (-14 points), federal spending (-19 points), taxes (-13 points) and inflation (-23 points), which is unchanged from April.

In fact, 60% of the public still say their incomes are falling behind the rising cost of living, with women and those with lower incomes saying they are especially hard hit.

Tariffs could be playing a role in the inflation outlook: 49% say tariffs hurt workers compared to only 37% who say they help; 67% say they raise the cost of everyday goods. But by a 47%-37% margin, tariffs are seen helping US companies who produce in the U.S.

Still, almost three-quarters of the public say foreign trade represents an economic opportunity for the U.S., rather than a threat. The public on net disapproves of the President's tariffs by a 51%-45% margin.