Ukraine Civilian Deaths Spiked Amid Trump's Peace Push

Ukadike Micheal

Data Interpretation

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Political

Summary:

European data: Russia escalated Ukrainian civilian attacks in 2025, surging with Trump's peace talks.

A comprehensive assessment by European governments reveals a disturbing trend: Russia intensified its attacks on Ukrainian civilians throughout 2025, with major escalations coinciding directly with President Donald Trump's efforts to negotiate an end to the war.

The analysis, which has not been made public but was reviewed by Bloomberg, found that Russian attacks killed approximately 2,400 civilians and injured nearly 12,000 more in 2025. This represents a nearly 30% increase in casualties compared to 2024.

These figures align with data released by the United Nations, adding weight to the report's grim conclusions.

Civilian Casualties Surge in 2025

Since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022, the conflict has exacted a heavy toll on non-combatants. The European governments' report estimates the total civilian casualties at around 15,000 killed and over 40,000 injured.

The assessment also provides specific figures on child casualties, reporting that 758 children have been killed and another 2,445 injured. The UN Monitoring Mission in Ukraine independently reported similar numbers for 2025, citing 2,514 civilian deaths and 12,142 injuries, noting that older populations in frontline areas were disproportionately affected.

A Timeline of Escalation and Diplomacy

While the report does not speculate on the Kremlin's motives, it highlights a clear pattern where Russian aggression spiked immediately following diplomatic milestones aimed at peace.

• Post-March Trump-Putin Call: After the two leaders agreed to begin ceasefire talks, more than 2,000 of 2025's civilian deaths occurred.

• Post-May Direct Talks: Following the first direct negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials in three years, Russia launched the 40 largest air attacks of the entire war in the subsequent months.

• Post-August Anchorage Meeting: In the second half of the year, after Trump met with Putin in Alaska, Russia's use of drones surged. The monthly average hit 5,300, more than five times the average rate in 2024.

• Post-November Peace Plan: After a 28-point peace plan drafted by American and Russian officials was reported, Russia launched over 9,000 drones and 350 missiles at Ukrainian cities, killing more than 220 civilians.

Interpreting Moscow's Strategy

European officials familiar with the findings told Bloomberg the data suggests Russian President Vladimir Putin is not genuinely committed to the peace process. The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

An alternative interpretation is that Russia is using escalating violence as a brutal negotiating tactic. By increasing attacks on civilians, Moscow may be attempting to gain leverage in talks and erode Ukrainian morale.

Establishing a definitive death toll in the conflict remains a challenge. President Trump himself has frequently cited military casualty figures that are significantly higher than other public estimates.

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Adam

Commodity

Gold and silver climbed to records in a broad-based metals rally as the US Justice Department threatened the Federal Reserve with a criminal indictment, reviving concerns over the central bank’s independence.

The yellow metal spiked toward $4,600 an ounce, while silver rose above $84 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the potential indictment comes amid “threats and ongoing pressure” by the administration to influence interest-rate decisions. The dollar weakened and US 10-year Treasury yields edged higher.

Repeated attacks on the Fed by the Trump administration were a major factor aiding gold and silver last year, and that driver looks set to persist.

“We see increased interference with the Fed as a key bullish wildcard for the precious metals in 2026,” said Julius Baer Group Ltd.’s Carsten Menke. The silver market, smaller in size, is more sensitive to moves in rates and the dollar so is “likely to react more strongly to such concerns,” he said.

Gold and Silver Storm to Records as Fed Hit With Subpoenas_1

Precious metals are being driven higher by a confluence of tailwinds, including falling US rates, heightened geopolitical tensions and a perception that the US will slacken its efforts to manage inflation. More than a dozen money managers said they’ve opted not to take too much money off the table in gold, holding conviction in its long-term appeal.

The possible Fed indictment “is a reminder of how many uncertainties markets are juggling — geopolitics, the growth/rates debate, and now a fresh headline-driven reminder of an institutional risk premium,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.

The US Supreme Court, meanwhile, set Wednesday for the next possible opinion day on President Donald Trump’s tariffs. A ruling against the levies would undercut his signature economic policy and deliver his biggest legal defeat since returning to the White House.

Traders are also waiting for results from the so-called Section 232 investigation, which may lead to US tariffs on silver, platinum and palladium. That report is expected this month.

Silver Climbs

Silver jumped as much as 6% on Monday to just above $84.60 an ounce.

The white metal surged almost 150% last year, in part reflecting a historic short squeeze. The dominant spot market in London has seen continued tightness as tariff fears prevent supplies from flowing from packed warehouses in the US, though borrowing costs for the metal have eased somewhat this week.

“We see the deficit in the silver market continuing throughout 2026, primarily on higher investment demand,” BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions Inc., said in a note on Monday. Industrial consumption has also tightened the physical market to an unprecedented degree, it said.

A speculative frenzy in China has helped turbocharge the metals rally in recent weeks, with traders and deep-pocketed funds piling into commodities such as nickel, platinum and silver. The nation’s only pure-play silver fund even had to turn away new investors, worried about a high-risk spike in premiums over the value of its underlying assets.

Deadly protests in Iran, meanwhile, highlighted the haven appeal of precious metals on the possibility that the Islamic Republic could be overthrown. Trump said Sunday he was mulling potential options on Iran, while also reiterating threats to take Greenland and questioning the value of the NATO alliance, just over a week after seizing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

Gold rose as much as 2% to a record $4,599.87 an ounce, trading up 1.9% at $4,593.46 an ounce as of 11:18 a.m. in London.

What Bloomberg Strategists Say...

“Gold is near its highs of the day, and its rally reflects a convergence of political, monetary and geopolitical risks that are reinforcing demand for haven assets. A move toward $5,000 soon seems highly plausible given that backdrop.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.3%. Both palladium and platinum advanced about 3%.

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Forex

Commodity

The dollar and Wall Street futures dropped and gold jumped on Monday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment over the refurbishment of the central bank's headquarters.

This escalated worries about the Fed's independence from political influence to a new level and added to a frenetic start to 2026, which has already seen the U.S. capture Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and ramp up talk of taking control of Greenland.

S&P 500 futures fell more than 0.5%, while safe-haven gold - which investors buy as hedge against both turmoil and inflation - hit another record high as money markets priced in a slightly higher chance of short-term U.S. interest rate cuts.

Europe opened with a modest 0.2% dip from record highs too . The Swiss franc - another classic safe-haven - strengthened 0.6% to 0.796 per dollar and the euro was 0.4% firmer at $1.168. /FRX

"The latest development marks a significant escalation in the fight between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell," MUFG's Lee Hardman said, adding that "the repeated attacks on the Fed’s independence" continued to pose downside risks for the dollar.

Fed funds futures have added in about three basis points more in cuts this year, which is small but points to the risk that the Fed gets pushed into being more aggressive.

Gold struck a record high of more than $4,600 an ounce, also buoyed by rising geopolitical tensions around Iran, although oil prices saw little reaction.

Trump said on Sunday he was weighing a range of strong responses, including military options, to a violent crackdown on Iranian protests which pose one of the biggest challenges to country's clerical rule since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Monday via English translation that the situation was "under total control".

Brent crude futures lost 9 cents to sit at just over $63 a barrel in early London trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.02 a barrel, down 10 cents.

Both benchmarks rose more than 3% last week in their biggest such increase since October, as Iran's clerical establishment stepped up its crackdown on the demonstrations.

While a premium has formed in oil prices in recent days, the market is still underestimating the risk given a wider conflict could affect the Strait of Hormuz, Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee said.

"The market is saying, 'Show me the disruption to supply', before materially responding," he added.

TRUMP VS POWELL

The second full week of the year will include U.S. inflation data, trade figures from China and a slew of U.S. earnings beginning with JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) and BNY (BK.N) on Tuesday, but for traders that was all for another day.

Fed chief Powell had responded to the Trump administration's threat of a criminal indictment by calling it a "pretext" aimed at pressuring the central bank to cut interest rates.

"This unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure," Powell, whose term is due to end in May, said in a statement.

Economists said the developments amount to a dramatic escalation in the fight between Powell and Trump, which dates back to the banker's first years as chair in 2018.

"Trump is pulling at the loose threads of central bank independence," said Andrew Lilley, chief rates strategist at Barrenjoey, an investment bank based in Sydney.

"Investors won't be happy about it, but it shows actually Trump has no other levers to pull. The cash rate will stay what the majority of the FOMC wants them to be."

The dollar had the sharpest reaction, falling even against typically risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The dollar index (.DXY) was 0.4% lower in Europe and on track for its biggest one-day drop since mid-December.

The greenback had a miserable 2025, dropping more than 9% against major peers due to shrinking interest rate differentials as the Fed cut rates and as concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and political uncertainty swirled.

"This open warfare between the Fed and the U.S. administration ... it's clearly not a good look for the U.S. dollar," said National Australia Bank's head of currency strategy, Ray Attrill.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Political

Economic

A landmark case accusing Myanmar of committing genocide against minority Muslim Rohingya will open at the United Nations' top court on Monday.

It will be the first genocide case the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will hear in full in over a decade. The outcome will have repercussions beyond Myanmar, likely affecting South Africa's genocide case at the ICJ against Israel over the war in Gaza.

Myanmar has denied accusations of genocide.

"The case is likely to set critical precedents for how genocide is defined and how it can be proven, and how violations can be remedied," Nicholas Koumjian, head of the U.N.'s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar, told Reuters.

The predominantly Muslim West African country of Gambia filed the case at the ICJ - also known as the World Court - in 2019, accusing Myanmar of committing genocide against the Rohingya, a mainly Muslim minority in the remote western Rakhine state.

Myanmar's armed forces launched an offensive in 2017 that forced at least 730,000 Rohingya from their homes and into neighbouring Bangladesh, where they recounted killings, mass rape and arson.

A U.N. fact-finding mission concluded the 2017 military offensive had included "genocidal acts".

Myanmar authorities rejected that report, saying its military offensive was a legitimate counter-terrorism campaign in response to attacks by Muslim militants.

In 2019 preliminary hearings in the ICJ case, Myanmar's then leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, rejected Gambia's accusations of genocide as "incomplete and misleading".

The hearings at the ICJ will mark the first time that Rohingya victims of the alleged atrocities will be heard by an international court although those sessions will be closed to the public and the media for sensitivity and privacy reasons.

The hearings start at 10 a.m. (0900 GMT) on Monday and will span three weeks.

Myanmar has been in further turmoil since 2021, when the military toppled the elected civilian government and violently suppressed pro-democracy protests, sparking a nationwide armed rebellion.

The country is currently holding phased elections that have been criticised by the United Nations, some Western countries and human rights groups as not free or fair.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Sunday that the Department of Justice had served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over his testimony this summer about the Fed's building renovations.

The move represents an unprecedented escalation in President Donald Trump's battle with the Fed, an independent agency he has repeatedly attacked for not cutting its key interest rate as sharply as he prefers.

The renewed fight will likely rattle financial markets on Monday and could over time escalate borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans.

Market reaction was initially modest, with S&P 500 futures down less than 1% after pre-market trading opened.

The subpoenas relate to Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June, the Fed chair said. The testimony concerned the Fed's $2.5bn (€2.14bn) renovation of two office buildings, a project that Trump has criticised as excessive.

Powell on Sunday cast off what has up to this point been a restrained approach to Trump's criticisms and personal insults, which he has mostly ignored. Instead, Powell issued a video statement in which he bluntly characterised the threat of criminal charges as simple “pretexts” to undermine the Fed’s independence when it comes to setting interest rates.

“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president," Powell said.

“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

It's a sharp departure from the Fed's understated response to Trump this year. The central bank has attempted to placate the administration by dialling back some policies, such as efforts to consider the impact of climate change on the banking system, that the administration clearly opposed.

Confidence in US investments

The renewed attacks on the Fed’s independence, and Powell’s full-throated defence, reignite what had appeared to be a dormant battle between Trump and the chair he appointed in 2017.

The subpoenas will renew fears that the Fed's independence from day-to-day politics will be compromised, which could undermine global investors' confidence in US Treasury securities.

“We expect the dollar, bonds and stocks to all fall in Monday trading in a sell-America trade similar to that in April last year at the peak of the tariff shock and earlier threat to Powell’s position as Fed chair,” Krishna Guha, an analyst at Evercore ISI, an investment bank, wrote in a note to clients.

“We are stunned by this deeply disturbing development which came out of the blue after a period in which tensions between Trump and the Fed seemed to be contained,” Guha added.

In a brief interview with NBC News Sunday, Trump insisted he didn’t know about the investigation into Powell. When asked if the investigation is intended to pressure Powell on rates, Trump said: “No. I wouldn’t even think of doing it that way.”

Powell's term as chair ends in May, and Trump administration officials have signalled that he could name a potential replacement this month.

Trump has also sought to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented step, though she has sued to keep her job and courts have ruled she can remain in her seat while the case plays out. The Supreme Court will hear arguments in that case on 21 January.

Clashes over Fed renovations

At the Senate Banking Committee hearing in June, Chairman Tim Scott, a Republican from South Carolina, said the Fed's building renovation included “rooftop terraces, custom elevators that open into VIP dining rooms, white marble finishes, and even a private art collection”.

Powell disputed those details in his testimony, saying “there’s no new marble. ... there are no special elevators" and added that some of the controversial items are “not in the current plan.”

In July, Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, said in a letter to Powell that his testimony about changes to the building plans “raises serious questions about the project's compliance” with previous plans approved by a planning commission.

Still, later that month, Trump visited the building site and, while standing next to Powell, overstated the cost of the renovation. Later that day, Trump, speaking to reporters, downplayed any concerns with the renovation. He said, “they have to get it done” and added: “Look, there’s always Monday morning quarterbacks. I don’t want to be that. I want to help them get it finished.”

When asked if it was a firing offence, Trump said: “I don’t want to put that in this category.”

Prosecutions of political opponents

The Justice Department in a statement on Sunday said it can’t comment on any particular case, but added that Attorney General Pam Bondi “has instructed her US Attorneys to prioritise investigating any abuse of tax payer dollars”.

Timothy Lauer, a spokesperson for US Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s office, said they don’t comment on ongoing investigations.

With the subpoenas, Powell becomes the latest perceived adversary of the president to face a criminal investigation by the Trump administration's Justice Department. Trump himself has urged prosecutions of his political opponents, obliterating institutional guardrails for a Justice Department that for generations has taken care to make investigative and prosecutorial decisions independent of the White House.

The potential indictment has already drawn concern from one Republican senator, who said he’ll oppose any future nominee to the central bank, including any replacement for Powell, until “this legal matter is fully resolved”.

“If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none,” said North Carolina senator Thom Tillis, who sits on the Banking Committee, which oversees Fed nominations.

“It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question.”

Source: Euronews

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Stocks

OPENING CALL

Stock futures were down on Monday following news of prosecutors investigating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as well as escalating tensions in Iran.

The weekend's developments will force the market to "grapple with fresh political turbulence and rising geopolitical risk," said Hargreaves Lansdown.

Investors turned to safe haven assets, with gold and silver surging to record highs after the news while the dollar fell.

Powell said in a video statement the government investigation is a pretext for Trump's efforts to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates and undermine its independence.

The challenge to the Fed's independence could cause Fed board members to dig their heels in and delay cutting interest rates in order to "defend the institution," ABN Amro said.

Investors also await inflation data due to be released on Tuesday for clues on the possible pace of rate cuts.

Meanwhile, officials said Trump is scheduled to be briefed Tuesday on options to respond to protests in Iran.

The U.S.'s largest banks are also scheduled to report earnings this week, starting with JPMorgan Chase.

Stocks to watch

Allegiant Travel reached a roughly $1.1 billion deal to buy Sun Country Airlines, as budget airlines struggle with competition from bigger rivals. Shares fell 2% offhours, while Sun Country's stock rocketed 16% higher.

American Express, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Bank of America: Shares of the biggest U.S. banks and credit-card companies lost 2% or more ahead of the open.

Exxon Mobil: Trump said he might block the oil company from drilling in Venezuela after Chief Executive Darren Woods described the country as "uninvestible" at present. Shares dropped about 1% premarket.

Synchrony Financial, Capital One Financial: Shares in both companies fell after Trump called late Friday for credit-card interest rates to be capped at 10% for a year.

Walmart will enter the Nasdaq-100 on Jan. 20, Nasdaq said Friday. Shares rose about 2.5% premarket.

Watch For:

World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-For Years, Powell Avoided Fighting Trump. That's Over.

-The Speed-Obsessed Texas Wildcatter in Pole Position for Venezuela's Energy Riches

-Weakened by War, Iran's Regime Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.

"The downside risks for the dollar from any indications of further determination to interfere with the Fed's independence are substantial," ING said.

Bonds:

Medium- and long-term Treasury yields extended their rise after the government actions against Powell.

Energy:

Oil prices slipped despite increased supply risks due to escalating protests in Iran and uncertainties over Venezuelan crude exports.

Geopolitical risks are likely to continue driving oil price swings, but a wave of excess supply is expected to keep futures lower this year before a modest recovery in 2027, Goldman Sachs said.

Metals:

Gold prices surged on the back of Powell's criminal probe and as heightened geopolitical risks spurred safe-haven demand .

Increased interference in the Fed could be a "bullish wildcard" for precious metals this year, said Julius Baer.

Phillip Nova said the outlook for gold remains positive over the long term , but risks are higher in the near term due to elevated prices. Gold's long-term bullish case remains well supported by U.S. central bank easing expectations, sustained ETF inflows and resilient physical demand.

Gold chart

Comex gold futures' short-term trend remains bullish, based on the daily chart , RHB Retail Research said.

Silver

Silver rose as worries about the Fed independence grew with geopolitical concerns also supporting prices.

The reaction in precious metal markets seems somewhat outsized , particularly for silver. "We believe that silver's outperformance over gold has become excessive," Julius Baer said.

Copper

Copper prices climbed, holding above the $13,000-a-ton mark on persistent concerns over tightening supply and tariff uncertainty in the U.S.

Iron

Iron ore prices were higher in early trade amid stable demand. The demand for molten iron has rebounded and has further room to rise, Nanhua Futures said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Heineken CEO Dolf Van Den Brink to Step Down

Heineken said Chief Executive Dolf van den Brink plans to step down at the end of May after almost six years at the helm, leaving the world's second-largest brewer searching for a new leader at a challenging time.

His departure comes as the Dutch brewer struggles with weakening demand and changing consumer preferences. Beer sales are falling and the company cut guidance twice last year in response to weak consumer sentiment.

Abivax Surges on Report Ely Lily is Preparing $17.5 Billion Bid

Shares in Abivax surged on a report that Eli Lilly was ready to offer 15 billion euros ($17.45 billion) for the biotech startup.

Stock in the French company rose 22% in early European trading to 120.80 euros after climbing as much as 30% earlier in the session. It has a market capitalization of around 7.78 billion euros.

Trump 'Inclined' to Keep Exxon Out of Venezuela

WASHINGTON-President Trump said he might block Exxon Mobil from drilling in Venezuela after the company's top executive publicly acknowledged the barriers involved in doing business in the country.

"I'll probably be inclined to keep Exxon out," Trump said Sunday evening, speaking to reporters traveling with him aboard Air Force One.

Allegiant Travel to Buy Sun Country Airlines for About $1.1 Billion

Allegiant Travel reached a roughly $1.1 billion deal to buy Sun Country Airlines as budget-focused U.S. airlines struggle with stiff competition from larger rivals.

The proposed cash-and-stock deal would bring together two carriers that have primarily served price-sensitive, U.S. vacation seekers at the same time that the industry has come under strain. Larger carriers such as United Airlines and Delta Air Lines have deployed their own bare-bones fares to lure bargain hunters while catering to faster-growing demand from well-heeled travelers willing to pay up for extras.

Gold Breaks Through $4,600 on Fed Concerns, Haven Boost

Gold prices climbed to a record high, breaking above $4,600 a troy ounce as a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revived concerns over the central bank's independence, while protests in Iran boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

In midmorning European trading Monday, futures in New York rose 2.2% to $4,600.50 an ounce after touching an intraday high of $4,612.70. Silver surged 6.1% to $84.22 an ounce, having hit a record high of $84.69 earlier in the session.

U.S. Prosecutors Are Investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell

U.S. prosecutors are investigating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his testimony last summer about the central bank's building renovation project, according to government officials with knowledge of the matter.

The Fed received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department on Friday that threaten a criminal indictment, the Fed chair said in a statement.

U.S. Steps Up Planning for Possible Action in Iran

WASHINGTON-President Trump is scheduled to be briefed Tuesday on options to respond to the protests in Iran, according to U.S. officials, a sign the president is considering reprimanding the regime for its crackdown on demonstrators as he has repeatedly threatened.

The president's planned meeting with senior administration officials will be a discussion about the next steps, which could include boosting antigovernment sources online, deploying secretive cyber weapons against Iranian military and civilian sites, placing more sanctions on the regime and military strikes, the officials said.

U.S. Steps Up Planning for Possible Action in Iran

Democrats See Path to House Control in 2026

WASHINGTON-Democrats are entering the 2026 midterm elections with a clear path to reclaiming control of the House, helped by President Trump's wobbles in his second term, Republican retirements and tight margins across the map that are set to tilt the balance of power in their direction.

Republicans currently hold a 218-213 majority in the House, with four vacancies. That slim edge means Democrats would need a net gain of just a handful of seats to win back the gavel, sharpening focus on a small number of competitive districts likely to decide control of the 435-seat chamber.

South Africa Risks Angering Trump by Hosting Navies of Iran, Russia, China

JOHANNESBURG-South Africa, already on the outs with the Trump administration, is risking further ire from Washington this week by welcoming Iranian, Russian and Chinese warships to its waters.

The naval exercises, which kicked off on Friday, are intended to promote maritime safety, trade and interoperability, according to South African officials. But analysts and opposition politicians say the U.S. president is likely to see the exercises as an intentional provocation.

Russian Flags Proliferate Over Shadow Fleet of Oil Tankers

Source: morningstar

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James Riley

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Political

The European Union has issued new guidance on a minimum pricing mechanism for Chinese electric vehicles, a move Beijing has welcomed as a "soft landing" in the heated trade dispute over EV tariffs.

This development signals a potential de-escalation after months of tension. At the end of 2024, the European Commission secured backing from member states to impose tariffs ranging from 7.8% to 35.3% on EV imports from China, citing unfair subsidies.

Those tariffs, effective since July 2024, prompted a swift reaction from China. Beijing launched anti-dumping investigations into key EU exports, including brandy and pork, in a move widely seen as targeting France, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark.

A New Framework for Chinese EV Pricing

Following extensive negotiations, the European Commission released its "Guidance Document on the submission of price undertaking offers on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China."

According to the Commission, the guidance outlines the key elements for a potential price agreement, covering critical aspects such as:

• Minimum import prices

• Approved sales channels

• Rules on cross-compensation

• Frameworks for future investments in the EU

Beijing Welcomes Dialogue Over Tariffs

China’s Commerce Ministry responded positively, highlighting the EU's commitment within the document. The ministry noted that the "EU acknowledges that it will assess each price undertaking offer against the same legal criteria in an objective and fair manner, following the principle of non-discrimination and in accordance with relevant WTO rules."

Beijing views this progress as evidence that both sides can resolve differences through dialogue under the WTO framework. The ultimate goal, according to the ministry, is to maintain stability in the global automotive industrial and supply chains.

This sentiment was echoed by the China Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (CCCEU), which praised "the positive outcome achieved through dialogue and consultations between China and the European Union, which has enabled a soft landing in the electric vehicle case."

The tariff dispute comes as China continues to expand its global dominance in the EV market. Its lead has grown as both the EU and the U.S. have recently adjusted previous policy commitments, a move that reduces competitive pressure on Chinese manufacturers.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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