UK Consumer Spending Disappointed In November, Surveys Show

Summary:

British consumers kept a tight rein on their spending in November as they awaited finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget, while retailers said Black Friday sales disappointed, according to surveys on Tuesday.

Barclays said spending on its credit and debit cards fell by 1.1% in annual terms in November, the biggest drop since February 2021 when the COVID-19 pandemic still raged.

A separate survey from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) trade body showed spending at big retailers rose by 1.4% in annual terms last month, the slowest growth since May.

The surveys chimed with other indicators showing a weakening consumer economy. Official data showed retail sales fell sharply in October and the Confederation of British Industry said confidence among chains of stores hit a 17-year low last month.

"November was a month marked by uncertainty, as consumers were awaiting seasonal discounts and the details of the Autumn Budget," said Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays.

Reeves announced 26 billion pounds ($35 billion) of tax increases in her November 27 budget, although there was no increase to the main rates of income tax as had been expected for much of the month.

The BRC said computing and household appliance sales looked better than last year's Black Friday promotion period, but non-food sales growth was minimal overall.

"Rising household costs and nervousness about the economy continue to impact discretionary buying," said Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure at accountants KPMG, who sponsor the BRC survey.

"But retailers will be hoping that budget clarity has now provided more certainty for consumers about their ability to spend in the months ahead," she added.

The Barclays data covered card spending between October 25 and November 21, while the BRC survey spanned November 2 to November 29. Black Friday fell on November 28.

Source: Investing

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

A drone view shows the Morelos Dam, which diverts Colorado River water to the Mexicali Valley, as the Mexican government announced an immediate water delivery to Texas farmers to help address a shortfall under a treaty that has strained U.S.-Mexico relations and prompted tariff threats by U.S. President Donald Trump, in Los Algodones, Mexico, April 10, 2025.

President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose an additional 5% tariff on Mexico if it doesn't immediately provide additional water to help U.S. farmers, accusing the country of violating a treaty that outlines water sharing between the neighbors.

Under the treaty, Mexico must send 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. from the Rio Grande through a network of interconnected dams and reservoirs every five years.

Trump said in a social media post that Mexico "owes" the U.S. 800,000 acre-feet of water due to violations of the treaty over the past five years.

He demanded Mexico release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31, and more "soon after."

The lack of water was hurting crops and livestock in Texas, Trump said.

"As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water," Trump said. "That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn't released, IMMEDIATELY."

A spokesperson for Mexico's economy ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In April, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said that Mexico had agreed to increase its water shipments to Texas to help make up a shortfall under the 1944 treaty.

Mexico has argued that it is under drought conditions that have strained the country's water resources.

Source: CNBC

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Justin

Stocks

Economic

Michael Burry, the money manager made famous in The Big Short, says he holds sizable positions in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common stock and believes a re-listing of the US housing-finance giants is "nearly upon us."

In a 6,000-word blog post Monday, Burry outlined why he's now bullish on the government-sponsored enterprises, the political and regulatory hurdles that still stand in the way of a public offering, and the steps he says Washington must take before the pair can stage a comeback on Wall Street.

Burry earned renown for predicting the collapse of the US housing market before the 2008 financial crisis. In the post, he shared excerpts from an old note in which he dubbed the company "Frauddie Mac," and said that he had bought the company's five-year credit-default swaps in the years leading up to its meltdown, which led to government conservatorship. While some investors have famously held Fannie and Freddie positions for over a decade, Burry said he became bullish on the shares only after President Donald Trump's election last year.

"I personally own both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common stock in good size," Burry wrote in the post, in which he examined the current political dynamics and how shares may be valued in a sale and beyond. The offering price "is a key determinant of the intrinsic value of these companies, and I will certainly revisit this thesis as those numbers come into focus."

Shares of Fannie Mae rose 2% Monday, while Freddie Mac climbed 2.4%. The pair, which trade over-the-counter and are prone to volatile swings, have added about 12% since late November.

For a public offering to occur, Burry argues that regulators will need to ease Fannie and Freddie's capital requirements, convert certain preferred shares into common stock, and scale back the government's claim on the companies, warning that without the latter, their common shares are "worthless."

Still, he noted "there remains a final steep, windy and rocky climb to IPO for both."

Burry's Scion Asset Management last month terminated its registration status with the SEC, raising the possibility that he is shuttering his hedge fund or closing it to outside investors.

His post comes less than a month after billionaire investor and long-time Fannie and Freddie shareholder Bill Ackman took to social media to outline a proposal that calls for relisting Fannie and Freddie on the New York Stock Exchange.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Fiona Harper

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a delay in the release of October 2025 Producer Price Index data due to funding issues, rescheduled for January 14, 2026.

The delay heightens uncertainty in economic indicators, impacting Federal Reserve policies and potentially influencing cryptocurrency volatility. No direct on-chain data links to this delay yet.

Economic Data Postponement Amid Funding Shutdown

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced a postponement of the October 2025 Producer Price Index release due to a lapse in federal appropriations. The data for October will now be released in January 2026, alongside November data, per a bureau announcement and economic calendars highlighting the delay.

This disruption in data collection arises from a governmental shutdown, affecting economic assessments and predicting potential ramifications for Federal Reserve policy. The PPI delay implies higher uncertainty concerning inflation expectations, creating a more challenging environment for timely monetary decisions.

"The October and November PPI, or wholesale inflation reports will now be delayed until January 14th…We don't have very good alternate data when it comes to inflation…So the official data is very important."

Source: CryptoSlate

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Daniel Carter

Economic

A combine harvester is seen as it harvests soybeans while loading a grain transfer hoper in Deerfield, Ohio, U.S., October 7, 2021.

● $11 billion aid for row crop farmers, $1 billion for other crops.

● Farmers face higher costs, seek aid for seeds and fertilizer.

● Trump plans to cut farm machinery costs by reducing regulations.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday unveiled a $12 billion aid package for American farmers, the latest government effort to shore up a key political constituency hurt by the financial fallout from his trade policies.

Farm groups and Republican farm-state lawmakers have sought the aid in part to support farmers with purchases of seeds, fertilizer and other expenses for next year's growing season.

The aid package, which Trump says will come from tariff revenues, aims to support a crucial voting bloc that has largely stood by Trump despite facing billions in lost sales from his trade war with China.

Trump announced the aid at a roundtable at the White House alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and members of Congress. Growers of corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, rice, cattle, wheat and potatoes attended the roundtable, a White House official said.

"This relief will provide much needed certainty to farmers as they get this year's harvest to market and look ahead to next year's crops, and it'll help them continue their efforts to lower food prices for American families," Trump said.

Rollins said that $11 billion of the aid will go to row crop farmers and will be disbursed by February 28. The administration is holding back the remaining $1 billion for fruits, vegetables and other crops to finalize the details, Rollins said.

Bessent said the payments will be a "liquidity bridge during a period of adjustment" to support farmers until they see benefits from Trump's trade deals and other policies.

Amy Klobuchar, the top Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, said in a statement that Trump's trade policies have hurt farmers.

"The easiest way to give our farmers more certainty would be for the president to end his tariff taxes," she said.

The administration had been expected to announce a farm bailout totaling as much as $15 billion in October. Rollins previously said the 43-day federal government shutdown delayed the rollout.

LOWER EQUIPMENT COSTS, MORE SOYBEANS

Farmers have faced higher costs for agricultural inputs, opens new tab like seed and fertilizer, which the Trump administration has said it is examining. Soybean farmers expect to see their third consecutive year of losses in 2025, according to the American Soybean Association.

Trump said at the White House that he would further help farmers by eliminating many environmental regulations for farm machinery and that he would expect manufacturers like John Deere (DE.N), opens new tab to lower equipment prices.

"Farming equipment has gotten too expensive, and a lot of the reason is because they put these environmental excesses on the equipment, which don't do a damn thing except make it complicated," Trump said.

John Deere did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump also said he has asked China's President Xi Jinping to increase China's recently negotiated soybean purchase agreement.

"I think he's going to do more than he promised to do," Trump said.

During his first term, Trump gave about $23 billion in aid to farmers hurt by his trade policies. Farmers are set to receive a near-record $40 billion in government payments this year, fueled by ad-hoc disaster and economic aid.

Net farm income could fall by more than $30 billion in 2026 due to a decline in government payments and low crop prices, according to an estimate from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.

Source: Reuters

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Daniel Carter

Political

President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 5% tariff on imports from Mexico if the country did not release water that his administration says must be allowed to flow under a treaty, escalating a fight with a major trading partner.

"I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn't released, IMMEDIATELY," Trump posted Monday on social media. "The longer Mexico takes to release the water, the more our Farmers are hurt. Mexico has an obligation to FIX THIS NOW."

"The U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after," he added, setting a deadline for the country to comply.

At issue are tensions over water supplies for farmers in South Texas as the Trump administration seeks to ramp up pressure on Mexican authorities over their obligations under a 1944 treaty. The US State Department said last month that officials from the two countries had met to discuss steps Mexico could take to "reduce shortfalls in water deliveries and ensure compliance."

The administration says that Mexico is 865,000 acre-feet short of delivery requirements.

Trump on Monday said the dispute was harming communities in Texas along the US-Mexico border, hours after his administration announced a $12 billion lifeline to boost farmers caught in the crossfire of the president's tariff regime.

"As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water," Trump said.

The US president has already imposed levies on Mexican imports to the US not covered by the USMCA trade pact negotiated in his first term, tariffs he said were intended to pressure the country to crack down on fentanyl trafficking.

Mexican officials have sought an agreement with Trump to lower those import taxes, with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum meeting him last week at the World Cup draw in Washington.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

BlackRock Inc.’s (BLK) flagship Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETF has delivered strong returns since its launch — but for most investors, the outcome has been far more modest.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) posted a more than-40% annualized return from its January 2024 debut through November 2025, data compiled by Bloomberg show, even after the recent crypto selloff. But the average investor earned just 11% annualized over the same period, according to new analysis by Morningstar. Much of that disconnect owes to poor timing: many investors piled in only after the fund had already surged — underscoring how market timing can blunt even the best-performing products.

That underperformance matters now because it helps explain why money is starting to flow out after a sweeping crypto downturn. IBIT just saw its sixth straight week of outflows — the longest losing streak since its inception — in a sign that the recent Bitcoin rebound has yet to restore investor conviction. In November, investors pulled more than $2.3 billion from the exchange-traded fund — the largest monthly redemption and only the second monthly withdrawal this year.

One reason: for many investors, the payoff hasn’t matched the pitch. The ETF wrapper may have solved the Bitcoin access problem — but not the timing problem.

“The ETF has done its job — it has tracked Bitcoin almost perfectly and thus notched excellent total returns since inception,” Jeffrey Ptak, a managing director at Morningstar, wrote. “The problem is investors appear to have arrived late to the party.”

BlackRock declined to comment. BlackRock´s Bitcoin ETF Investors Came Late to the Crypto Party_1

The gap stems from the difference between what the fund earned and what investors actually experienced. Morningstar’s Ptak compared IBIT’s total return and dollar-weighted return. The result is a more realistic picture of how the average dollar fared.

In IBIT’s case, most inflows came after the ETF had already surged. By the time the fund’s asset base swelled, the pace of gains had slowed. That pattern — enthusiasm peaking after performance — is common in high-volatility investments, but the magnitude here was notable. Nearly 60% of IBIT’s total dollar gains came in its first 66 days, wrote Ptak, when few investors were actually in the fund.

“The large gap between the ETF’s dollar-weighted and total return underscores the importance of staying the course,” he said. “If current investors do so, their average dollar’s return should gradually converge toward the ETF’s total return. If not, it will likely continue to lag.”

All told, the average Bitcoin-ETF investor underperformed gold, the S&P 500 and even a plain-vanilla 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio, which returned more than 15% annualized over the stretch Ptak looked at.

To be sure, Ptak, in his conversations with BlackRock, highlighted factors that help explain the chasm, such as limited access to the Bitcoin funds early on, institutional derivatives-driven outflows — since big money funds like hedge funds use a popular trading strategy called the basis trade — and in-kind Bitcoin transfers, a recent development.

Many crypto enthusiasts also argue that the token is a long-term hold, given its ability to rally back forcefully following major drawdowns.

And regardless of one’s view, there’s no denying that demand has been strong. IBIT, for one, has received positive net flows on 80% of trading days since inception, according to Morningstar. Assets across US spot-Bitcoin ETFs total some $117 billion.

In the eyes of James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence, the analysis is fair. But dollar-weighted returns are just one window into a fund’s performance.

“Dollar-weighted returns are more a critique of the investor than the fund adviser,” Seyffart said. “We know on average investor behavior is not great, particularly in high-momentum funds like this.”