Trump Announces Peace Deal Between Azerbaijan and Armenia at White House

Political

Summary:

Trump said the United States signed separate deals with each country to expand cooperation on energy, trade and technology, including artificial intelligence.

Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement on Friday during a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump that would boost bilateral economic ties after decades of conflict.

The deal between the South Caucasus rivals - assuming it holds - would be a significant accomplishment for the Trump administration that is sure to rattle Moscow, which sees the region as within its sphere of influence.

"It's a long time - 35 years - they fought and now they're friends, and they're going to be friends for a long time," Trump said at a signing ceremony at the White House, where he was flanked by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at odds since the late 1980s when Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous Azerbaijani region mostly populated by ethnic Armenians, broke away from Azerbaijan with support from Armenia. Azerbaijan took back full control of the region in 2023, prompting almost all of the territory's 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia.

Trump said the two countries had committed to stop fighting, open up diplomatic relations and respect each other's territorial integrity.

The agreement includes exclusive U.S. development rights to a strategic transit corridor through the South Caucasus that the White House said would facilitate greater exports of energy and other resources.

Trump said the United States signed separate deals with each country to expand cooperation on energy, trade and technology, including artificial intelligence.

He said restrictions had also been lifted on defense cooperation between Azerbaijan and the United States.

Both leaders praised Trump for helping to end the conflict and said they would nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. "So who if not President Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize?" Aliyev said.

Trump has tried to present himself as a global peacemaker in the first months of his second term. The White House credits him with brokering a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand and sealing peace deals between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Pakistan and India.

However, he has not managed to end Russia's war in Ukraine or Israel's conflict with Hamas in Gaza.

U.S. officials said the agreement was hammered out during repeated visits to the region and would provide a basis for working toward a full normalization between the countries.

Senior administration officials told reporters the agreement marked the first end to several frozen conflicts on Russia's periphery since the end of the Cold War and said it would send a powerful signal to the entire region.

The peace deal could transform the South Caucasus, an energy-producing region neighboring Russia, Europe, Turkey and Iran that is criss-crossed by oil and gas pipelines but riven by closed borders and longstanding ethnic conflicts.

Armenia plans to award the U.S. exclusive special development rights for an extended period on the transit corridor, administration officials told Reuters this week. The so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity has already drawn interest from nine companies, including three U.S. firms, one official said on condition of anonymity.

Daphne Panayotatos, with the Washington-based rights group Freedom Now, said it has urged the Trump administration to use the meeting with Aliyev to demand the release of some 375 political prisoners held in the country.

Azerbaijan, an oil-producing country that hosted the United Nations climate summit last November, has rejected Western criticism of its human rights record, describing it as unacceptable interference.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Since the Federal Reserve's decision last month to hold interest rates steady, a shift appears underway at the U.S. central bank, with several Fed officials sounding increasingly uneasy about the labor market and signaling their openness to, if not impatience for, a rate cut as soon as September.

Their evolving stance may please President Donald Trump, who has pushed aggressively for lower interest rates all year. The reasons for it, including new data indicating a weakening labor market that Trump has claimed is "rigged," may not.

Labor market worries were at the heart of arguments put forward by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman when they dissented from the Fed's July 30 decision to leave short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.50% range, where they have been since December. The 9-2 majority signed off on a statement that characterized labor market conditions as solid.

Days later, they looked far less so.

"Concerning" was how Fed Governor Lisa Cook earlier this week described revisions to the government estimates that slashed job gains in May and June to what economists see as recession levels. The same report also showed employers added far fewer jobs than expected in July, and a tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.

"The employment number did say that the risk on the employment side is much higher than it had been...I will definitely be looking carefully," said Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

Bostic said he continues to believe just one rate cut will be appropriate for 2025, and at least one other hawkish Fed policymaker felt the new data did not change the overall picture much.

But even as central bankers appear short of consensus for the need to ease policy, subtle shifts suggest policymakers are tilting more dovish than before.

"There are risks on both sides of our mandate, and when that happens, when you have risks on both sides, you have to take a balanced approach," St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said Friday. That's a shift from his earlier expressions of deeper concern about not meeting the Fed's inflation mandate than on missing its full employment goal.

"I'm comfortable with the decision we made in July, but I am increasingly less comfortable with making that decision again and again," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said earlier this week.

There's still plenty of data to digest before the Fed's next policy-setting meeting September 16-17, including a read on consumer prices next week that will help shape policymakers' assessments of whether the Trump administration's new higher tariffs will mean persistently higher inflation, as hawks fear, or just a temporary bump, as doves have argued.

Financial markets reflect heavy bets that the policy rate will be at least half of a percentage point lower by year-end.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Ethereum (ETH) surged past the $4,000 mark on Aug. 8, hitting its highest level this year after a sustained market rally that saw it gain nearly 50% in the past month.

Data from CryptoSlate shows the asset peaked at $4,047 during US trading hours. Notably, the last time ETH traded above $4,000 was in December 2024, when optimism around Donald Trump’s election victory fueled a wave of pro-crypto sentiment in the US.

Meanwhile, CoinGlass data reveals the latest rally caught bearish traders off guard. Short positions against ETH suffered losses totaling $134 million in the past 24 hours as prices defied expectations.

Institutional demand drives ETH

Ethereum’s breakout comes amid a surge in institutional interest in the digital asset for their treasury reserves.

Over the past month, major firms such as SharpLink and BitMine have accumulated significant ETH holdings and announced multi-billion-dollar purchase plans.

According to Strategic ETH Reserve data, these entities collectively hold over 3 million ETH—about 2.5% of the total supply—valued at more than $12 billion. BitMine leads with 833,100 ETH, worth approximately $5.2 billion.

Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, has expressed a cautious optimism regarding the increasing corporate interest in ETH.

While he welcomed the adoption, Buterin cautioned firms against overleveraging their ETH holdings.

According to Buterin:

“If you woke me up 3 years from now and told me that treasuries led to the downfall of ETH… my guess would be that they turned into an overleveraged game.”

In addition to these firms, the Ethereum network has also seen a surge in adoption via exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with a record $5 billion in inflows recorded in July.

According to SoSo Value data, the trend has continued into the new month, with the nine funds registering just two days of outflows in August compared to four days of outflows experienced by their Bitcoin counterparts.

Additionally, traditional financial powerhouses like BlackRock and Robinhood have expanded their activities around Ethereum, focusing on real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.

What’s next for Ethereum price?

Looking ahead, market optimism continues to rise along with expectations of Ethereum’s continued price growth.

Crypto bettors on Polymarket, the leading decentralized prediction platform, believe there is a 60% chance that ETH will exceed $5,000 by the end of the year. Meanwhile, 36% of traders believe it could reach $6,000, and 24% predict a rise to $7,000.

Notably, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bullish about Ethereum’s price hitting $10,000 by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, BitMine’s projections suggest a much higher potential, estimating ETH’s implied price at $60,000.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Manuel

Economic

Imports into the United States fell more than expected in June as concerns around shifting tariff policies hit retailers, raising fears of fewer product options in stores for shoppers, data from the National Retail Federation showed on Friday.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

The data comes as several of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs went into effect this week. As of August 7, duties range from 10% to 50%, with India, Brazil, and Switzerland facing some of the highest rates.

Since April's "Liberation Day" announcement of a 10% baseline tariff, Trump has adjusted rates frequently. A temporary truce with China in May reduced tariffs to 30%, but new hikes resumed in July.

BY THE NUMBERS

U.S. ports covered by NRF's report handled 1.96 million 20-foot containers or its equivalent in June, which was down 8.4% year-over-year, but up 0.7% from May.

That was a bigger drop from the NRF forecast from a month ago. The trade body had then projected ports would handle 2.06 million TEU in June, up 5.9% from May but down 3.7% year over year.

Moreover, import cargo volume at major container ports in the U.S. is tentatively expected to end 2025 5.6% below 2024's volume, NRF's forecast showed on Friday.

CONTEXT

Apparel retailers, including Under Armour, Deckers Outdoor have reported tariff impacts in the past couple of months and are taking steps to diversify their supply chain to avoid tariffs on goods routed through or sourced from Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam.

KEY QUOTE

"Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.

"We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them."

Tariffs will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy, he added.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Commodity

Here's a look at what happened in oil markets in the week of August 4-8 and what the focus will be in the days to come.

OVERVIEW: Oil prices are on track for steep weekly losses on mounting concerns over widening U.S. tariffs and news that U.S. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could meet as soon as next week to discuss the war in Ukraine. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, trades around $66 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge West Texas Intermediate is around $63 a barrel. Futures are also pressured by concerns over a looming supply surplus after OPEC+ agreed on another supersize output hike for September.

MACRO: Trump's sweeping new tariffs on dozens of countries went into force on Thursday but diplomatic efforts are far from over, with trading partners lobbying for exemptions.

Meanwhile, a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report put a September interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve back on the table. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders currently see a 89.4% chance that the U.S. central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points next month.

Trump's plan to nominate top economic adviser Stephen Miran to fill a vacancy on the Fed's Board of Governors would introduce a voice that challenges the conventional view around the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth, potentially marking a shift toward a more dovish monetary policy stance, market watchers said.

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS: A meeting between Trump and Putin could raise optimism around a peace deal in Ukraine, easing the geopolitical risk premium and potentially affecting Trump's secondary tariffs on India.

The President said this week he would double tariffs on New Delhi as part of a broader effort to target countries that buy Russian oil. However, the higher duties aren't set to take effect for another couple of weeks, leaving room for negotiations, analysts said.

"There is some hope that these secondary tariffs might never see the light of day, given the August 27 deadline leaves the door open for negotiations in the interim," said Kieran Tompkins, commodities economist at Capital Economics.

In this context, traders are also closely watching China, another big importer of Russian oil. However, "Trump seems to be shying away from imposing new punitive tariffs in view of the ongoing trade talks and the U.S.'s dependence on rare earths from China," analysts at Commerzbank said.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND: This week brought some encouraging demand signals, even as sentiment was weighed down by OPEC+'s decision to fully unwind its largest tranche of voluntary cuts much earlier than initially planned.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels last week against expectations of a 100,000-barrel build, sending positive signs about consumption trends in the world's largest crude consumer.

Also, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised the September price of its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers, signaling confidence in the demand outlook as OPEC+ continues to boost production.

"Despite rising supply, Saudi Arabia appears to be finding sufficient buyers for its oil," Commerzbank analysts said, adding that Russian oil buyers might look for oil from other major supplies including Saudi Arabia due to U.S. pressure.

WHAT'S AHEAD: Market focus will remain on U.S. trade negotiations and Russian supply risks.

Oil prices could extend their decline if President Trump holds off on imposing stricter sanctions on Russia, according to Commerzbank's Carsten Fritsch. "Without tougher sanctions, oil prices could fall further as market participants gradually shift their focus to the threat of oversupply in the fall," the commodities analyst said.

In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, OPEC, and the International Energy Agency will publish their monthly reports next week, with new forecasts for supply and demand.

Commerzbank expects the EIA to maintain its projection of stagnating U.S. oil production through the end of 2026 and reiterate expectations of an oversupplied market. The IEA is also likely to forecast a growing surplus, potentially amplified by OPEC+'s planned production hike in September. OPEC, by contrast, is expected to stick with its more bullish view based on stronger demand assumptions and a less pessimistic outlook on global supply.

On the macro front, investors will also focus on core CPI and PPI data for further clues on the Fed's rate path.

Source: morningstar

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Adam

Economic

President Donald Trump’s nominee to the Federal Reserve Board has implications for the central bank's monetary policy decisions.

The president nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to the Fed to replace Fed governor Adriana Kugler, who is stepping down Friday. Miran will hold that seat for a few months until the Jan. 31 term expires while the president looks for a different candidate to nominate for a full 14-year term as Fed governor.

But how will the nomination impact the central bank and the decisions it makes on setting interest rates? Here are three things you need to know about Miran’s views and what they could mean for the Fed.

Miran wants lower interest rates

Miran, who criticized the Fed last fall for cutting rates, warning that lower rates could perpetuate inflation further, is now in favor of cutting rates.

Miran, who holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University, believes that the Trump administration’s policies, from immigration to trade and deregulation, which he has helped create, are disinflationary. This contrasts with many on the Fed who believe the president’s tariffs could lead to higher inflation. If the Senate were to confirm Miran in time for the Sept. 16-17 policy meeting and the full committee is not convinced to lower rates at that time, Miran would likely dissent in favor of cutting rates. That would mark three on the committee who could dissent: Fed governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman both dissented at the July policy meeting, preferring to lower rates by 25 basis points.

Miran's 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' favors a weaker dollar

Miran favors a weaker dollar as a way to offset higher inflation from tariffs while also increasing exports, narrowing the trade deficit, and boosting growth. He is the author of what he dubbed the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," a reference to the 1985 Plaza Accord that succeeded in depreciating the dollar's value. The Mar-a-Lago Accord seeks to devalue the dollar while retaining the greenback as the world’s reserve currency. As one who favors a weaker dollar, Miran favors lower interest rates, which could lead to a weaker dollar if US rates are lower than the interest rates of other central banks around the world. The president has pushed for a 3 percentage point drop in the Fed’s benchmark policy rate. Investors will watch for how much Miran will push for the policy rate to drop if confirmed.

Miran wants a less independent Fed

Miran has advocated for major changes to the Fed. In a paper co-authored in 2024 with the now chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Miran called for an overhaul of the central bank by Congress that would give the White House more control over firing Fed governors, as well as not allowing Fed governors to serve in the executive branch for four years following their term as governor. He also argued for subjecting the Fed’s independent budget to congressional appropriations. The proposals for allowing the president to dismiss Fed officials at will have stirred fears that the move could politicize the central bank and push the Fed to make policy according to the whims of the political cycle and not the economic cycle.

Still, as only one governor on the Fed, and possibly a temporary one, Miran himself isn’t expected to tip the scales all that much. Any major changes to the structure of the central bank would have to come from Congress, and there’s still a 19-member committee that will make decisions on rates led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who, like the majority of the Fed, remains in a "wait-and-see" mode for the impact of tariffs on inflation.

Source:finance.yahoo

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Thomas

Stocks

Wall Street advanced on Friday, taking indexes closer to a strong weekly finish, after President Donald Trump's interim pick for a Federal Reserve governor post kept expectations alive for a dovish policy.At 11:29 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), rose 119.33 points, or 0.27%, to 44,087.97, the S&P 500 (.SPX), gained 39.20 points, or 0.62%, to 6,379.20 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), gained 167.47 points, or 0.79%, to 21,410.34.

Trump on Thursday nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran to a short-term board seat following Adriana Kugler's abrupt exit last week, as he narrowed his shortlist to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends on May 15.Miran, who is often aligned with Trump, has previously implied that Powell was "too late" in lowering rates.

On Thursday, Bloomberg News also reported that Fed Governor Christopher Waller was emerging as a leading contender for the chair post.

Investors remain conflicted about the Fed's leadership overhaul, balancing concerns about the institution's independence against growing anticipation of deeper rate cuts ahead.

"The reality is the president can't force a chair to step down or put any additional pressure to make the governors to force rates lower," said Phil Blancato, CEO, Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management.

"This is about him putting in folks who are going to be more dovish and ultimately (lead) to deeper rate cuts, whether they're justified or not."

In earnings-related moves, Gilead Sciences (GILD.O), surged 8.6% following its raising of the full-year financial outlook.Expedia (EXPE.O), jumped 4.4% after raising its annual forecast for gross bookings and revenue growth.

Trade Desk (TTD.O), sank about 40%, the biggest single-day drop on record, as the ad-tech firm reported a sharp slowdown in second-quarter revenue growth.

Pinterest (PINS.N), tumbled 8.7% after the social media platform missed analysts' estimates for second-quarter profit.

Most S&P 500 sectors rose, with a 1.1% jump in communication services (.SPSY), leading the gains on Friday. Consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD), was on track to be the week's top‑performing sector.

Healthcare (.SPXHC), was down 1.2% for the week, dragged primarily by Eli Lilly, whose shares tumbled in the previous session after late-stage study results showed its experimental GLP-1 pill lagged that of Novo Nordisk's (NOVOb.CO).

Meanwhile, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were on track for their best week in over a month, while the Dow was set to log adequate gains.

Traders now peg about a 90% chance of the first rate cut hitting next month, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool, with futures pointing to at least two cuts by year-end.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the central bank must balance risks to its inflation and jobs goals before deciding whether to cut interest rates.

Investors also monitored the seemingly debilitating U.S.-India trade relations as New Delhi shelved fresh U.S. arms and aircraft purchases, according to three Indian officials, after Trump raised tariffs on Indian exports to 50% this week - among the highest of any U.S. trading partner.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.42-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.15-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and 13 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 72 new highs and 72 new lows.