Trump Swipes At Tulsi On Iran Nuke Contradictory Intel: 'I Don't Care What She Said'

Political

Summary:

President is 'looking for better than a ceasefire' in Israel-Iran war...

President Trump while on his way back from the G7 summit in Canada, which he cut short short due to the Middle East situation, said to reporters aboard Air Force One Tuesday morning that he wants "a real end" to Iran's nuclear problem. He expressed his assumption that Iran is "very close" to having nuclear weapons.

He asserted this means nothing less than Tehran "giving up entirely" its enrichment activities. "I didn't say I was looking for a ceasefire," he said. This was in follow-up to a scathing message he wrote on Truth Social, saying that French President Emmanuel Macron had "mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a 'cease fire' between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that."

Via Associated Press

Late yesterday Trump had issued an unprecedented written message telling some ten million Iranian inhabitants to "immediately evacuate" Tehran amid ongoing Israeli strikes, suggesting that a much bigger assault is coming - a warning made much more ominous by the open secret that Iran possesses nukes.

"You're going to find out over the next two days. You're going to find out. Nobody's slowed up so far," Trump said further, hours after the evacuation warning - which came just before 3am local time.

But he also caveated that "I may" send US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff or Vice President JD Vance to meet with Iranian officials to seek de-escalation and negotiations. "It depends what happens when I get back," he added.

What made the whole exchange even more interesting is that all of this was partially in response to a question regarding director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s March testimony that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. Here's the exchange:

CNN: You’ve always said you don’t believe Iran should have a nuke. Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that Iran wasn’t building a nuclear weapon.

Trump: I don’t care what she said. They were very close to getting a nuke.

It's also the case that the CIA's latest assessment maintains that the Islamic Republic is likely not seeking a nuclear weapon. Crucially this was part of the DNI's annual threat assessment.

Gabbard had previously firmly stated before the Senate Intelligence Committee that the US intelligence community "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003."

And yet currently, a second US aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz, is en route to Mideast waters, and US Air Force fuel tankers are being positioned in Europe - all for the Pentagon to ready more 'options' for President Trump should military action be initiated (Congress might want a word...).

While the tempo of the exchange of strikes have slowed, the exchange of missile fire has persisted...

Gabbard has in hours following Trump's comments insisted she and Trump are "on the same page" over Iran’s nuclear weapon timeline. "President Trump was saying the same thing that I said in my annual threat assessment back in March in Congress. Unfortunately, too many people in the media don’t care to actually read what I said," Gabbard told reporters as she arrived on Capitol Hill Tuesday.

Meanwhile, at the G7 which Trump left, a joint statement stress that "Iran can never have a nuclear weapons" while also urging de-escalation of the conflict. It added that Israel has a "right to defend itself" - however, made no mention of the Iranians being able to defend themselves (of course, this new war began with an Israeli aerial attack on the country).

Source: Zero Hedge

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Oil rose as comments from President Donald Trump reined in speculation about a quick end to the conflict between Israel and Iran, keeping the market on edge about potential crude supply disruptions in the Middle East.

West Texas Intermediate added about 3% to trade around $74 a barrel in a choppy session that saw prices swing between gains and losses. The uncertainty drove a gauge of crude market volatility to three-year highs.

After leaving the Group of Seven leaders meeting in Canada early, Trump played down the prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and said he wants “a real end” to the conflict. He told reporters aboard Air Force One that he wanted Tehran’s nuclear program “wiped out,” according to CBS.

Trump said on Tuesday that he hadn’t reached out to Iran for peace talks in “any way, shape, or form,” but that “if they want to talk, they know how to reach me.”

So far, Iran’s crude-exporting infrastructure has been spared, and most of the fallout has been confined to shipping. The market remains focused on any sign that Tehran may seek to disrupt crude flows across the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s daily output passes.

Elevated options trading indicates that “investors are still positioning for potential price spikes this month as tensions persist,” said Razan Hilal, market analyst at Forex.com.

An incident in which two oil tankers collided near the waterway was a reminder of the risks to energy flows in the region. Navigation signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are facing increasing interference that’s affecting positional reporting, according to the UK Navy, and some shipowners are reluctant to accept bookings in the region, citing safety concerns.

A blaze spotted in waters near the area on Tuesday isn’t security related, according to a maritime risk firm.

Oil prices still remain significantly higher than where they were before the attacks began, which prompted record volumes of producer hedging as well as futures and options changing hands. Morgan Stanley has hiked its price forecasts, citing increased risk from the conflict.

Israel said it has taken control over much of Iran’s airspace and severely damaged key facilities used in its missile and nuclear programs since the assault was launched on Friday, sparking fears of widening conflict in a region that produces around a third of the world’s crude.

“There might be growing hopes that a slow but irreversible de-escalation will follow soon, but it is simply impossible to foretell the outcome with great confidence,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM. “In the Israel-Iran war, the completion of the geopolitical cycle might take longer than just a few days.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Olivia Brooks

Cryptocurrency

In a surprising turn of events, a significant and unanticipated shift in Bitcoin prices has led to a considerable stir among traders and investors. Recently, prospects of a $104,000 rug pull have emerged, catching the attention of the cryptocurrency community. With Bitcoin currently trading at a delicate juncture, experts and market analysts are keenly observing these developments, speculating on potential major moves in the near future.

Rug Pull Alert: The $104K Bitcoin Scenario

The term ‘rug pull’ in cryptocurrency refers to a malicious maneuver in the DeFi sector where crypto developers abandon a project and run away with investors’ funds. Currently, the worries focus around Bitcoin potentially hitting the $104,000 mark, which some traders suggest could be a setup for a dramatic drop in value. This situation echoes the unpredictable nature of digital currency markets, where swift gains can sometimes lead to equally rapid losses. Analysts advise investors to be cautious and vigilant, especially when dealing with such high-stake investments.

Market Reactions and Predictions

The crypto market’s response to the potential Bitcoin rug pull has been notably mixed. While some see it as an opportunity for substantial profits, others are wary of the high risks involved. Leading crypto analysts have been debating whether this anticipated price point signifies a peak before a significant downturn, or if it could propel Bitcoin to new heights. Given the volatile history of cryptocurrencies, making an accurate prediction remains challenging. Nonetheless, enthusiasts and professionals alike are keenly watching the Bitcoin charts for any signs that might dictate their next move.

Implications for the Crypto Industry

A major price manipulation like a rug pull could have significant implications for the overall cryptocurrency market. It might undermine the trust of investors, particularly newcomers, and could prompt calls for stricter regulation in the crypto space. Industry stakeholders continue to emphasize the importance of regulatory frameworks to safeguard investments and maintain market integrity. The ongoing developments around Bitcoin’s pricing and market speculation highlight the complex dynamics that drive the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

In conclusion, the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $104,000 has stirred up considerable attention from various quarters of the crypto community. As market players and investors brace for potential outcomes, the discussion around cryptocurrency regulation and investor protection becomes increasingly pertinent. This situation serves as a reminder of the inherent risks and high volatility that come with investing in cryptocurrencies, urging participants to proceed with caution.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Stocks

Buyback capacity is moving up in a very big way for three stocks. Two tech stocks hoping to leverage and profit from AI are indicating that management has significant confidence in generating future returns. Additionally, an automobile components company can now buy back nearly a third of its shares.

MongoDB Expands Share Buyback Program to $1 Billion

On June 4, MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) reported earnings that ended its streak of disappointing results. The company also announced a big increase to its share buyback program. MongoDB raised its share repurchase authorization by $800 million.

Now, its total buyback capacity is $1 billion. This is a substantial buyback capacity, equal to approximately 5.9% of the company’s market cap as of the June 13 close.

MongoDB’s stock has dropped dramatically over the past 16 months or so. The stock reached a share price of around $500 in February 2024, but now trades in the low $200 range. MongoDB has never actually spent on stock buybacks before, and the timing of the authorization suggests the company sees value in its stock near current levels.

This was a welcome surprise, especially when paired with the company’s Q1 financials that beat on sales and adjusted earnings per share (EPS). Shares rose approximately 13% in the day after the results. This comes after the company’s March report, when shares saw a post-earnings drop of 27%.

The company issued its full fiscal year outlook that quarter, and analysts considered it disappointing. It has been waiting to gain traction in AI application-building use cases, but progress has been slow. Still, the company’s subscription growth last quarter was strong at 22%.

Autoliv Launches $2.5 Billion Share Repurchase Program

Next up is Autoliv (NYSE:ALV). The company just announced a massive share repurchase program. The company’s $2.5 billion authorization is equal to around 30% of its market capitalization as of the June 13 close. The program will last through the end of 2029, or approximately 18 quarters. Autoliv would need to significantly accelerate its buyback pace to utilize this full capacity over that period.

Since the company began repurchasing stock back in 2022, it has averaged buyback spending of around $82 million per quarter. To use the full $2.5 billion over 18 quarters, that number would need to ramp up to around $139 million per quarter, an increase of nearly 70%.

Autoliv also raised its dividend by 21%. Its next $0.85 per share dividend will be payable on Sept. 23 to shareholders of record on Sept. 5. This quarterly figure implies an annual dividend payout of $3.40, giving the stock an indicated dividend yield of approximately 3.2%.

DocuSign Adds $1 Billion to Share Buyback Authorization

DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU), a software firm implementing AI, also just announced a substantial addition to its buyback authorization.

The company’s additional share buyback authorization is worth $1 billion. This adds to the stock’s previous authorization, bringing its total buyback capacity to $1.4 billion. This total is equal to around 9.4% of the company’s market capitalization as of the June 13 close. DocuSign has really stepped up its buybacks recently, spending $700 million on repurchases over the last 12 months. From 2020 to 2023, its average annual spending was only around $300 million.

Shares have been moving on an upward trajectory, rising around 44% over the past 52 weeks. This strong performance comes even after the firm’s latest earnings, which caused shares to fall 19%. However, the company’s recent rise in buybacks indicates confidence in the generally improving outlook of its own business. Recent buyback activity and the sizeable new authorization suggest that the company thinks shares can keep rising.

DocuSign is in the process of releasing AI features for customers powered by its Iris AI engine. It plans to roll out AI contract agents later this year. This tool will analyze contracts in seconds, creating efficiencies over manual contract review.

These increases in share buyback capacity seem to indicate that management is confident in the direction of shares going forward. For Mongo, this may be more due to the huge drop in its share price. Management may think the stock is hitting a bottom near current levels.

For DocuSign, management may be bullish on its coming AI features and believes that markets are undervaluing its growth prospects. For Autoliv, the sheer size of the new authorization suggests a strong commitment to shareholder returns and confidence in long-term performance, especially following its recent dividend increase.

Source: investing

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Warren Takunda

Economic

U.S. retail sales dropped more than expected in May, weighed down by a decline in motor vehicle purchases as a rush to beat potential tariff-related price hikes ebbed, but consumer spending remains supported by solid wage growth for now.

The largest decline in sales in four months reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday added to moderate job growth last month in suggesting that domestic demand was softening. Federal Reserve officials meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to leave the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range while monitoring the economic impact of tariffs and tensions in the Middle East.

"Tariff announcements have had a clear impact on the timing of large-ticket purchases, notably autos, but there are few signs yet that tariffs are leading to a general pullback in consumer spending," said Michael Pearce, deputy chief economist at Oxford Economics. "We expect a more marked slowdown to take hold in the second half of the year, as tariffs begin to weigh on real disposable incomes."

Retail sales fell 0.9% last month, the largest decrease since January, after a downwardly revised 0.1% dip in April, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, decreasing 0.7% after a previously reported 0.1% gain in April.

Sales last month were also held down by lower receipts at service stations because of a decline in gasoline prices.

President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have raised fears over global growth, restraining oil prices. But hostilities between Israel and Iran have boosted oil prices. Unseasonably cooler weather likely also hurt sales. A 25% duty on imported motor vehicles and trucks came into effect in April.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.

SOME POCKETS OF STRENGTH

Receipts at auto and parts dealerships tumbled 3.5% after decreasing 0.6% in April. Sales at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers dropped 2.7%.

Receipts at service stations fell 2.0%, while those at electronics and appliance stores slipped 0.6%.

Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services component in the report, declined 0.9%. Economists view dining out as a key indicator of household finances.

But online sales jumped 0.9%, while those at clothing retailers increased 0.8%.

Furniture store sales soared 1.2%. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book store sales advanced 1.3%.

Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.4% in May after an upwardly revised 0.1% fall in April. These so-called core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, were previously reported to have dropped 0.2% in April.

May's solid rise and upward revision to April suggest a

modest pick up in consumer spending this quarter after it slowed sharply in the January-March quarter.

The Atlanta Fed is currently forecasting GDP rebounding at a 3.8% annualized rate in the second quarter. The anticipated surge will largely reflect a reversal in imports, which have fallen sharply as the frontloading of goods fizzled. The economy contracted at a 0.2% pace in the January-March quarter.

Downside risks to consumer spending are, however, rising. The labor market is slowing, student loan repayments have resumed for millions of Americans and household wealth has been eroded amid tariff-induced stock market volatility.

The uncertain economic environment could lead to precautionary saving.

"Past experience suggests the biggest price rises will come in July, though the full impact of the tariffs likely will emerge across the whole of the remainder of the year," said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"That will weigh on growth in real incomes at the same time as a softening labor market will make people cautious with discretionary spending. Meanwhile, households no longer have 'excess savings' or strong growth in stock prices to spur them to spend."

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Economic

Central Bank

The European Commission proposed on Tuesday to loosen the EU's overly strict securitisation rules for banks, in a bid to boost the underdeveloped securitisation market and free up capital for lending while still safeguarding financial stability.

It is the first Commission proposal under a new push by the EU executive arm to better integrate the 27-nation bloc's capital markets to provide more sources of financing for companies to better compete with China and the United States.

The proposal does not, however, address the problem of Europe's debt bias in corporate financing, an issue especially for small enterprises -- a vast majority of EU firms -- which often do not have sufficient collateral to secure a bank loan.

The Commission has said it would present ideas to increase equity financing, seen as more stable and beneficial, later.

The Commission proposal, which will have to be agreed among EU governments and the European Parliament before it enters into force, seeks to roll back some of the sharp tightening of securitisation rules in the wake of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States after 2007.

"This was the root cause of the great financial crisis, but we should not confuse the instrument with its misuse," EU Financial Services Commissioner Maria Albuquerque said.

"We have revised the securitisation framework which entered into force in 2019, and which was focused on making sure that there were no risks," she said, adding too much focus on risk avoidance stifled the whole market.

"Risk is like everything else -- if you take risk to zero, you kill all activity. So now we are trying to find a better balance between risk and the positive outcome that should come from the use of this instrument," she said.

FREE UP BANK CAPITAL

Securitisation means that banks can package loans to companies or households and sell them to investors, like insurance companies or asset managers, as securities.

This lets banks transfer the risk associated with the loans to the investors and use the bank capital they had to set aside to cover that risk, to make new loans.

But the Commission did not have any estimates of how much bank capital the relaxed rules could free up or how lending might increase as a result. "It is impossible to predict," one Commision official said.

The Commission said there was room for the securitisation market to grow because in the U.S. it was around $14 trillion while in the EU only 1.6 trillion euros ($1.85 trillion), still below the peak of 2 trillion euros from 2008, when the U.S. sub-prime crisis hit Europe.

"We've all learned the lesson, so the framework is more robust now," Albuquerque said. "We are still making sure that this is managed properly, hence the capital requirements and the floors that we are putting in place. We are lowering them, but we're not taking them off," she said.

Among the proposed changes, investors would no longer need to double-check from their side if the bank issuing the security fulfilled all the necessary requirements. Due diligence would also be more proportionate to the level of risk.

There would also be less paperwork, fewer details required to be disclosed and a lighter transparency regime for private deals compared to transactions with public entities.

"This isn't about returning to practices that led to financial turbulence," Albuquerque said. "Financial stability can never be endangered, but we think there is room to manage this better, increase the capacity and the efficiency of banks to lend to the economy and still preserve financial stability."

Source:Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

The gold market is trading in neutral territory below $3,400 an ounce, even as American consumers significantly cut back on their shopping last month.

U.S. retail sales dropped by 0.9% in May, following April’s revised decline of 0.1%, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Tuesday. The data came in weaker than expected, as economists had projected a 0.5% decline in the headline number.

Over the past 12 months, retail sales increased by 4.5%, the report said.

Core sales, which exclude vehicle purchases, fell by 0.3% in May, also missing expectations. Economists were forecasting a 0.2% increase.

At the same time, the control group—which excludes sales from auto dealers, building materials retailers, gas stations, and office supply stores, and which feeds directly into U.S. GDP—rose by 0.4%, exceeding expectations for a 0.3% increase.

The gold market is largely shrugging off the disappointing economic data, as investors continue to take profits following last week’s sharp rally above $3,400 an ounce. Spot gold last traded at $3,384.79 an ounce, roughly unchanged on the day.

However, some analysts suggest the weak sales data could provide support for the precious metal. Sluggish consumer spending may dampen economic growth, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, even if inflation risks remain elevated.

Adam Button, Senior Currency Strategist at Forexlive.com, described the sales data as a mixed bag.

“Overall, this is a tough series to read right now because sales jumped in March on tariff worries and have fallen in two consecutive months since,” he said.