Trump Praises Putin's Ceasefire as Kyiv Faces New Attacks

James Riley

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Remarks of Officials

Political

Energy

Summary:

A Trump-brokered Ukraine ceasefire ended with Russia's largest 2026 air assault, sparking demands for sanctions.

President Trump stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin honored a temporary ceasefire agreement, a deal that came to a close just as a major new wave of air strikes hit Ukraine.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Trump confirmed that a one-week pause in attacks, which he personally requested from Putin, had expired on Sunday. "It was Sunday to Sunday, and it opened up and he hit them hard last night," Trump said. "He kept his word on that… we'll take anything, because it's really, really cold over there."

The agreement was first announced by Trump on Thursday, January 29. He explained that he had asked Putin to refrain from firing on Kyiv and other cities for a week due to the extreme cold weather, a request to which the Russian president reportedly agreed.

Russia Unleashes Largest Air Attack of 2026

Despite the brief pause, Russia launched what Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, has called the biggest air attack since the beginning of 2026. The overnight assault on Tuesday targeted power generation and distribution facilities, leaving thousands of people without electricity.

A residential building in Kyiv sustains heavy damage following a Russian air strike on February 3, 2026.

The attack involved over 70 missiles and several hundred drones, which damaged power and thermal plants already undergoing slow and costly repairs.

This escalation coincides with a new round of trilateral peace talks. American, Ukrainian, and Russian representatives gathered in the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday for discussions expected to continue until Thursday in Abu Dhabi.

Ukraine Contests Timeline and Demands Sanctions

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy challenged the timeline of the truce, stating it only began last Friday, a day after Trump's public announcement, and therefore did not last a full week.

In a statement Tuesday night, Zelenskyy directly addressed the renewed attacks. "We await the reaction of America to the Russian strikes," he said. "It was the U.S. proposal to halt strikes on energy during diplomacy and severe winter weather. The president of the United States made the request personally. Russia responded with a record number of ballistic missiles."

Zelenskyy urged international partners to impose further consequences on Russia:

• U.S. Action: He called for progress on a new sanctions bill currently being worked on by the U.S. Congress.

• European Measures: He pushed for European partners to take "decisive steps" regarding the earnings Russia generates from its oil tankers.

"Russia must feel pressure so that it moves in negotiations toward peace," he added.

Humanitarian Crisis in Freezing Temperatures

The latest assault has intensified the humanitarian crisis, with Ukrainian officials describing it as a "winter genocide." The strikes occurred as temperatures in the capital dropped to -20°C (-4°F).

In the aftermath of the attack, more than 1,000 residential tower blocks in Kyiv were left without heating, marking a severe end to the short-lived truce negotiated by Trump and Putin.

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Adam

Economic

European stocks are mixed on Wednesday. The FTSE 100 is rising, and the Eurostoxx 50 index is down a touch, gold and silver are higher for a second day, as European markets mostly shrug off a steep decline in US tech stocks on Tuesday. The sell off was spurred by news that Anthropic was releasing an AI tool so powerful that it threatens the business models of many global software providers.

Traditional software providers such as Salesforce, Microsoft, Oracle and SAP are the big losers in the AI race so far this year. SAP is down by a fifth since the start of this year, and Salesforce has fallen by 25%. Asian software providers such as Infosys and Tata are also following their US peers lower today, and Infosys stocks are lower by 7% so far today. Traditional software firms provide global corporates with programmes and data that tells computer hardware what to do and how to do it. Typically, these software programmes are expensive and cumbersome, requiring many resources to keep them updated and working effectively.

AI changing how corporates use tech

This has been the case for decades, and software companies have been the centre of the tech industry. However, AI is changing that. Anthropic, a private AI research company, released its Claude Cowork legal plugin this week, and the stock market shivered, with tech stocks particularly exposed. AI plugins are now the biggest threat to the software business model. They are cheaper and easier for companies to use, they require simple commands that anyone can input, and their output rivals any software provider.

Can AI bring down inflation?

Thus, we are entering the era where AI could upend the traditional tech ecosystem. This was not the case in recent years, where software providers could rally alongside AI developments, this is now not the case. We are in an era where AI can automate tasks in legal, sales, marketing and data analysis. This has big implications for the stock market and the overall economy. AI is now targeting professional services. This will mean reduced demand for consulting, reduced headcount and more focus on higher level AI oversight. There will be a major boost to productivity in countries that adopt these tools fastest, and potentially a rise in job losses.

The impact on the stock market is already being felt, but there are other consequences. For example, if there are major productivity gains, then this could push inflation down, by reducing the cost of producing goods and services, which will impact central bank policy. If increased productivity weighs on wage growth in the coming months and years now that tools like Anthropic’s are being adopted, this could make it easier for central banks to cut interest rates.

Thus, it will be worth listening out for any commentary around this topic at tomorrow’s BOE and ECB meeting. There has been no change in rate cut expectations in recent days and bond yields are relatively stable. The question is, will they stay this way as AI makes its mark on the world?

Investors get choosy about their stock picks

We expect software stocks to remain under pressure in the near term; however, it is not all bad for the AI supply chain. Memory and chip makers will be necessary to power Anthropic’s latest tools and the others that come after it. The AI trade is not moving in unison in 2026, and idiosyncratic factors may continue to drive stocks in the short term. This could keep the Nasdaq under pressure as other value-orientated sectors of the market and small caps are favoured over tech giants. S&P 500 futures are mostly unchanged right now, as fears about tech disruption come up against a strong fundamental backdrop in the US and Europe.

Rather than trading in unison, traders are getting picky about which companies they want exposure to. Earnings will be important for the direction of individual names. AMD’s stock could come under pressure later today after it reported earnings and a future outlook that disappointed analysts. In Europe, Novo Nordisk’s shares are lower by 18%, after it warned that sales will decline between 5% and 13% this year, lower than analysts had expected. This has wiped out the stock’s YTD gains.

Gold and Silver reclaim milestones

In contrast, the rally in gold and silver in the last two sessions has seen gold reclaim the $5,000 handle, and silver is back above $90. The oil price is also up a notch as geopolitical tensions come back to haunt markets. In the current period of AI disruption, we expect hard, real assets like commodities to remain in demand, which may help gold and silver’s recoveries to extend.

Without US economic data, the market is sensitive to headlines. The focus will shift to earnings, including Alphabet. BOE and ECB central bank meetings on Thursday will also come into focus for rates and the FX market, as the pound and the euro continue to rally vs. the USD into these meetings.

Source: xtb

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Edward Lawson

Commodity

Energy

Economic

Middle East Situation

Political

Syria's state-owned petroleum company has signed a memorandum of understanding with U.S. energy firm Chevron and Qatar-based Power International Holding to develop the nation's first offshore oil and gas field.

The deal was finalized on Wednesday in Damascus, with U.S. Special Envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, in attendance. This agreement marks Syria's first official move into offshore energy exploration as its new government works to expand hydrocarbon production and attract foreign investment.

Unpacking the Energy Partnership

According to Syria's state news agency, SANA, the agreement is designed to build strategic partnerships within the energy sector. The cooperation will focus on several key areas:

• Offshore exploration and development of oil and gas resources within Syria's territorial waters.

• Broader initiatives to support investment and growth in the country's energy infrastructure.

This pact represents a significant step for Syria as it seeks to leverage international partnerships to unlock its untapped offshore potential.

Rebuilding a Battered Oil Industry

Syria's oil and gas sectors were severely damaged during the country's nearly 15-year conflict, which resulted in widespread destruction and the loss of half a million lives.

Before the conflict began in March 2011, the oil sector was a cornerstone of the Syrian economy. In 2010, the country produced approximately 380,000 barrels of oil per day, with exports, primarily to Europe, generating over $3 billion. At the time, oil revenue accounted for about a quarter of the government's budget.

New Leadership Focuses on Economic Revival

The country's new authorities, which came to power after removing President Bashar Assad in December 2024, are prioritizing economic recovery.

This energy deal follows recent developments on the ground. Last month, Syrian government forces captured large areas of the oil-rich northeast and eastern regions from Kurdish-led fighters. This strategic gain could open up some of the country's largest oil fields for further exploration and development, aligning with the new government's economic agenda.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Gold prices are back above $5,000 an ounce and could continue to attract more bullish attention as the U.S. labor market shows signs of slowing momentum, according to the latest data from private payrolls processor ADP.

On Wednesday, ADP announced that 22,000 jobs were created last month. The report was weaker than expected, as consensus forecasts had called for job gains of 46,000. The subdued momentum follows downwardly revised numbers for December, which showed that 37,000 jobs were created.

“Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable.”

The gold market is not seeing much reaction to the latest U.S. employment data; however, analysts note that the report should continue to support the precious metal’s recovery after sharp losses on Friday and Monday. Spot gold last traded at $5,045.60 an ounce, up 2% on the day.

The ADP numbers are the only employment data markets will receive this week, as a brief government shutdown has delayed the release of the government’s official report.

Despite the limited data, economists note that there is clear evidence the U.S. labor market is slowing, which could support plans for the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates through the second half of the year.

The ADP report also shows that wage inflation, while elevated, is starting to cool. The report said that wages for workers who stayed in their jobs saw annual pay remain relatively unchanged at 4.5%. For workers who changed jobs, annual wages increased by 6.4%, down from December’s increase of 6.6%.

Source: kitco

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King Ten

China–U.S. Trade War

Remarks of Officials

Political

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone conversation on Wednesday, as reported by China's state-run Xinhua News Agency.

The official report confirmed the discussion took place but did not provide any specific details about its content. The call occurred just hours after President Xi had also spoken with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

A Tenuous Stability in US-China Relations

The high-level communication comes during a period of relative calm between the world's two largest economies. Relations have largely stabilized since Xi and Trump agreed to a one-year trade truce in South Korea last year.

Looking ahead, the two leaders are slated to meet four times this year. A potential summit could be scheduled as soon as April, continuing the dialogue established by the temporary trade agreement.

Persistent Geopolitical Friction Points

Despite the recent calm, ongoing geopolitical tensions threaten this fragile peace. President Trump's actions related to countries allied with China, including Venezuela and Iran, are testing the limits of the current understanding.

Further complicating the relationship, the U.S. president has criticized Canada for its trade agreements with Beijing. In a move aimed at reducing economic dependency on China, the Trump administration has also begun efforts to secure alternative supplies of rare earths, seeking to loosen China's control over the critical mineral market.

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Adam

Stocks

FTSE 100 breaks new ground

The FTSE 100 touched a fresh all-time high, outperforming European peers as strength in oil and mining stocks offset continued weakness in technology names. The index benefited from its heavy weighting toward commodities and old economy stocks, a rare advantage in a market increasingly nervous about artificial intelligence (AI) disruption.

BP and Shell both rose around 2% as Brent crude oil climbed toward $68 a barrel, providing support for the energy-heavy index. Miners also advanced as gold pushed back above $5000 per ounce and silver rebounded sharply from recent lows.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) lifted the index after posting strong results and reiterating guidance, with shares rising as much as 1.7% to their highest level since 2001. Analysts described the pharmaceutical giant's update as "good enough" to justify the breakout above long-term resistance.

Commodities and deal activity support UK rally

The rally in oil and precious metals provided crucial support for the FTSE 100, with the index's commodity bias proving an asset rather than a liability. Brent crude's move toward $68 reflects supply tightness and ongoing geopolitical risks, benefiting the UK's large energy contingent.

Gold's return above $5000 per ounce and silver's sharp rebound underscore renewed haven demand amid technology sector turbulence. Miners responded positively, adding weight to the index as investors rotated away from growth stocks into tangible assets.

Deal activity also bolstered sentiment, with Beazley jumping about 9% after Zurich raised its takeover offer. The move reinforces a broader trend of overseas bids for UK-listed companies, highlighting perceived value in London's undervalued market.

Sterling rose about 0.2% to above $1.37 against the US dollar, while gilt yields remained little changed across the curve. The stability in rates markets suggests investors view United Kingdom (UK) assets as relatively insulated from the AI-driven volatility hitting US tech stocks.

Wall Street tech rout intensifies

US stocks fell sharply as investors worried that AI could intensify competition and compress margins for established software firms. The sell-off hit major technology names hard, with sentiment fragile ahead of earnings from Alphabet and Amazon later this week.

NVIDIA and Microsoft both dropped almost 3%, while Salesforce, Datadog and Adobe fell around 7%. Intuit plunged 11%, dragging the S&P 500 software and services index down 3.8% for a fifth consecutive session.

The rout reflects growing unease about how quickly AI could disrupt existing business models and whether incumbent software companies can defend their margins. Investors are pricing in the risk that new AI-native competitors could undercut pricing and erode market share across the sector.

Despite the broader weakness, the Dow Jones lost just 0.34% thanks to strength in industrial and retail names. Walmart rose about 3% to become the first brick-and-mortar retailer to reach a $1 trillion valuation, underscoring divergent fortunes across sectors.

AI winners and losers emerge

Not every AI-exposed stock suffered in the sell-off, with clear distinctions emerging between perceived winners and losers. Palantir jumped nearly 7% after posting strong results, bucking the broader rout as investors rewarded companies demonstrating clear AI monetisation strategies.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slipped 1.7% ahead of its earnings report, suggesting caution rather than panic among investors who want to see proof of sustained demand. The chipmaker's performance contrasts with NVIDIA's steeper decline, highlighting different risk profiles within the semiconductor space.

PayPal plunged 20% on a weak 2026 profit outlook, showing how quickly the market punishes companies that fail to articulate credible AI-driven growth plans. The payments giant's warning rattled investors already concerned about margin pressure and intensifying competition.

Healthcare weighs on US sentiment

Obesity drugmakers sold off sharply after Novo Nordisk warned of a steep sales decline, sending its US-listed shares down almost 15%. The warning caught investors off guard and raised questions about demand sustainability in what had been viewed as a high-growth category.

Eli Lilly and smaller obesity-focused peers also declined as the market reassessed growth assumptions for weight-loss treatments. The sector had been a bright spot in healthcare, making the reversal particularly painful for investors who had piled in expecting years of uninterrupted expansion.

Asian markets follow Wall Street lower

Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.78% after touching a recent record high, as software and chip-related stocks fell sharply in sympathy with the US rout. The index's pullback suggests Asian investors are taking Wall Street's AI anxiety seriously, particularly given Japan's exposure to the semiconductor supply chain.

Tokyo's technology names mirrored the global sell-off, with concerns about AI disruption fears spreading beyond US borders. The move shows how interconnected global equity markets have become, particularly in growth sectors where sentiment shifts rapidly across time zones.

Source:ig

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Nathaniel Wright

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Energy

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Commodity

Political

Indian refiners are facing a critical decision as sellers offer Russia's flagship Urals crude at an increasingly steep discount to Brent, a move that directly challenges a new trade agreement with the United States designed to limit Russian oil purchases.

A Widening Price Gap on Urals Crude

Sellers are now marketing Urals crude at an $11 per barrel discount, a significant increase from the $9 discount seen just ten days ago, according to traders familiar with the matter.

Under normal circumstances, such a favorable price difference would trigger a wave of buying from Indian refineries eager to lock in cheaper supply. However, the current market dynamics are far from typical.

The US-India Trade Pact Reshapes the Market

The primary complication is a new trade deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. This agreement ties lower U.S. tariffs on Indian products to a commitment from New Delhi to significantly reduce its imports of Russian crude oil.

The deal explicitly pushes India to increase its purchases of American oil and other commodities. In exchange for cutting ties with Russian supply, the U.S. has also suggested that Indian buyers could gain access to crude from Venezuela and potentially even Iran, offering alternative sources.

Refiners Pause and Await Government Clarity

In response to the deal, Indian refiners are reportedly halting new purchases of Russian oil as they seek official guidance from their government. Sources indicate that companies are preemptively pausing transactions until they receive clarification on how to navigate the new trade relationship with the U.S.

India's Major Shift in Oil Imports

The situation marks a potential turning point for India, the world's third-largest oil importer. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, India dramatically ramped up its intake of discounted Russian crude.

For nearly four years, this strategy made Russia its single largest oil supplier, accounting for approximately one-third of the nation's total crude imports. Now, refiners must weigh the immediate benefit of cheap Russian oil against the broader economic implications of the U.S. trade agreement.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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