Trump May Sideline Exxon from Venezuela Oil Revival

Isaac Bennett

Remarks of Officials

Energy

Economic

Political

Summary:

Trump eyes Exxon exclusion from Venezuela oil plans over skepticism, contrasting with rivals' readiness.

President Donald Trump has suggested he may exclude Exxon Mobil from a U.S.-led initiative to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry, citing his dissatisfaction with the company's cautious approach.

"I'd probably be inclined to keep Exxon out," Trump told reporters Sunday aboard Air Force One. "I didn't like their response. They're playing too cute."

The president's comments appear to stem from a White House meeting on Friday where Exxon's Chief Executive Officer, Darren Woods, expressed significant reservations about the plan.

Exxon's Skepticism at White House Meeting

During the meeting with nearly 20 oil industry executives, Woods reportedly described Venezuela as "uninvestable." This skeptical assessment stands in contrast to the president's ambitious push to reconstruct the nation's energy sector following the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro.

Woods’s caution is rooted in Exxon's past experiences. The company has had its assets seized by the Venezuelan government twice and ultimately left the country after its operations were nationalized in the mid-2000s under President Hugo Chávez.

"If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it's uninvestable," Woods stated at the meeting. However, he added that Exxon would be ready "to put a team on the ground" if it received an invitation from the Venezuelan government along with adequate security guarantees.

The Challenge of Venezuelan Reinvestment

Reviving Venezuela's oil sector after years of mismanagement and underinvestment is a monumental task. Estimates suggest it could require $100 billion and take a full decade to complete.

Despite recent U.S. actions to control Venezuelan oil exports, significant questions remain about how long-term investments can be protected in a country plagued by corruption and instability. When asked what guarantees he offered the oil companies, Trump said, "Guarantees that they're going to be safe, that there's going to be no problem. And there won't be."

It remains unclear how the president might formally exclude Exxon from any future plans. The company did not immediately provide a comment.

Competitors Signal a Different Approach

While other executives at the meeting also expressed caution, some were more optimistic about the opportunity in Venezuela.

Chevron, Exxon's largest U.S. competitor, has maintained operations in the country. Vice Chairman Mark Nelson told attendees that Chevron is prepared to increase its output from the current 240,000 barrels per day. He projected that production could rise by approximately 50% within the next 18 to 24 months.

Similarly, Josu Jon Imaz San Miguel, CEO of the Spanish company Repsol, said his firm was "ready to invest more in Venezuela today" once the necessary legal and commercial frameworks are established.

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Japan’s Deep-Sea Gamble: Sourcing Rare Earths from the Ocean Floor

In a major strategic move to lessen its dependence on China for critical minerals, Japan has launched the Chikyu, a mining test vessel, on a month-long mission to extract rare-earth-rich mud from the deep-sea floor near Minamitori Island, located 1,900 km southeast of Tokyo. This mission is the first in the world to attempt continuous lifting of rare-earth sludge from a depth of 6 km onto a vessel, showcasing Japan’s ambition to become self-sufficient in a resource it currently imports predominantly from China.

Shoichi Ishii, head of the government-backed project, emphasized that building a domestic supply chain is key to safeguarding Japanese industry, which relies on rare earths for manufacturing cars, smartphones, and defense technologies.

Rising Pressures from China Spark Urgency

The urgency of this mission is underscored by recent developments: China has reportedly broadened its rare-earth export restrictions to Japan, following a ban on dual-use items that serve both civilian and military purposes. Although China hasn’t officially confirmed the broader ban, state media have suggested Beijing is considering it. These actions echo the 2010 rare-earth standoff, when China halted exports to Japan following a maritime dispute an event that served as a wake-up call for Japanese policymakers.

In response, Japan has already reduced its dependence on Chinese rare earths from 90% in 2010 to about 60% today, through efforts such as investments in Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths via trading house Sojitz, and initiatives promoting recycling and alternative manufacturing processes.

Minamitori Island: A Strategic Shift Toward Domestic Supply

The Minamitori operation symbolizes a new frontier. Unlike previous efforts focusing on overseas partnerships, this project targets rare-earth self-reliance by tapping into Japan’s exclusive economic zone. While Japan holds the rights to these resources, technical and environmental challenges remain.

According to Takahide Kiuchi of the Nomura Research Institute, this project is a necessary step but unlikely to fully insulate Japan from supply risks in the short term:

“If this new round of export controls ends up covering a lot of rare earths, Japanese companies will again make efforts to move away from China, but I don’t think it will be easy,” Kiuchi noted.

G7 and Global Strategic Implications

Japan’s move is also gaining attention internationally. Finance ministers from the G7 industrial nations are expected to discuss rare-earth supply chain diversification in Washington, highlighting the global significance of resource security amid escalating China-U.S.-Japan tensions.

As China continues to leverage its dominance over rare earths as a geopolitical tool, Japan’s deep-sea expedition near Minamitori represents a critical pivot point not just for Tokyo’s industrial resilience, but also for how democratic nations will secure vital resources in a fracturing global trade system.

Source: Reuters

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James Riley

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Central Bank

Political

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has accused the Trump administration of launching a criminal investigation into his conduct as a direct assault on the central bank's political independence.

In a statement on Sunday, Powell asserted that the probe is a retaliatory measure for the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates. "The charges are a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President," he said.

Details of the Criminal Investigation

The US attorney for Washington, D.C., opened a criminal investigation into Powell on Friday, The New York Times reported. The inquiry centers on two main points:

• The renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters.

• Whether Powell misled Congress about the scale of the construction project.

A Fight Over Monetary Policy

Powell, whose term as Fed chair is set to end in May, framed the investigation as a pivotal moment for the future of American monetary policy.

He argued the core issue "is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation."

A History of White House Pressure

The investigation follows a prolonged period of public criticism from President Donald Trump, who has consistently attacked Powell and the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates as he demanded.

The President has previously threatened legal action over the Fed building's renovations and has openly stated his intention to fire Powell. In a related move, Trump fired Fed governor Lisa Cook amid accusations of mortgage fraud, though the Supreme Court later blocked her removal.

Succession Looms as Term End Nears

With Powell's term concluding, the Trump administration has already assembled a list of potential loyalist candidates to lead the central bank, many of whom are expected to favor lower interest rates.

Kevin Hassett, a key economic adviser to Trump, is widely seen as the leading candidate to replace Powell. Despite this, Hassett has stated that the President's opinions on interest rates would hold "no weight" on the agency's decisions if he were in charge.

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Record Gold Rally Amid Political and Geopolitical Stress

Global gold prices climbed sharply to record highs on Monday as investors sought refuge from mounting uncertainty in both U.S. domestic politics and global geopolitics. Bloomberg reports that bullion approached $4,600 per ounce, driven by safe‑haven demand after revelations that the U.S. Justice Department had issued grand jury subpoenas to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony, a development seen as a significant escalation in tensions between President Trump’s administration and the Fed.

At the same time, intensifying protests in Iran kept geopolitical risk elevated, adding to the appeal of precious metals. Market participants are pricing in risks from potential regime instability in Iran and its implications for regional security and energy markets, amplifying gold’s traditional role as a hedge against uncertainty.

Weak Dollar and Broader Precious Metals Strength

The surge in gold was accompanied by a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell nearly 0.3%, making dollar‑denominated gold more attractive to foreign buyers. U.S. stock futures also weakened, and government bond futures rallied as traders repositioned for risk‑off sentiment. Silver similarly jumped, trading close to all‑time peaks, while platinum and palladium also advanced.

Analysts note that the combination of political friction particularly threats against central bank independence and ongoing geopolitical strife creates a potent backdrop for precious metals. Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Markets, emphasized the layered uncertainties markets are balancing, from institutional risk and rate debates to headline‑driven volatility.

Structural Drivers and Continued Momentum

Gold’s recent uptrend was not an isolated move. Prices have already experienced unprecedented record breaks in 2025 as markets grappled with expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased central bank purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks, including conflicts and sanctions.

Looking ahead, some forecasts indicate that structural factors such as persistent safe‑haven demand, continued monetary easing, and sustained geopolitical uncertainty could support further upside for gold prices through 2026.

In summary, the latest surge in gold reflects a convergence of monetary policy uncertainty, geopolitical instability, and risk‑off investment behavior, driving bullion to historic highs as a hedge in turbulent conditions.

Source: Bloomberg

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Isaac Bennett

Middle East Situation

Remarks of Officials

Political

President Donald Trump is considering a partnership with Elon Musk's SpaceX to counter Iran's ongoing internet shutdown.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he intends to speak with billionaire Elon Musk about using his satellite technology to restore internet access in Iran, where a government-imposed blackout has stifled communication for four days amid widespread protests.

"He's very good at that kind of thing, he's got a very good company," Trump told reporters when asked about engaging Musk's company, SpaceX. The firm's Starlink satellite internet service has previously been used to bypass government restrictions in Iran.

As of the announcement, neither Musk nor SpaceX had commented on the potential collaboration.

A Complex Relationship: Trump and Musk Reconnect

The potential partnership comes as Trump and Musk appear to be rekindling a complex relationship. After initially helping fund Trump's winning presidential campaign and later orchestrating major cuts to the federal government, the two had a public falling-out last year when Musk opposed Trump's signature tax bill.

Recent events suggest a thaw in their relations. Trump and Musk were seen dining together at the Mar-a-Lago resort this month, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is scheduled to visit a SpaceX facility in Texas on Monday.

Starlink's Role in Global Conflicts

Using Starlink to provide internet to Iranians is not a new concept. Musk has previously supported the idea to help citizens circumvent government censorship, including during major protests in 2022. That year, following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody, the Biden White House engaged with Musk to facilitate the use of Starlink in Iran.

The satellite service has also played a crucial role in other geopolitical hotspots, most notably Ukraine. However, its deployment is not without controversy. In 2022, Musk reportedly ordered a shutdown of Starlink service during a critical Ukrainian military offensive.

Unrest and Information Control in Iran

The current wave of anti-government protests in Iran, described as the most significant since 2022, began on December 28. Initially sparked by soaring prices, the demonstrations quickly escalated into a direct challenge against the clerical rulers who have governed the country since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The government's response has included a near-total internet blackout, severely hampering the flow of information. Human rights groups estimate hundreds have been killed in the crackdown. The U.S.-based organization HRANA has reported specific figures from the two weeks of unrest, including:

• 490 protesters killed

• 48 security personnel killed

• Over 10,600 people arrested

The Iranian government has not released an official death toll, and Reuters was unable to independently verify these numbers.

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Gerik

Economic

Fed Independence Challenged as Political Interference Intensifies

Tensions between the White House and the U.S. Federal Reserve erupted over the weekend as Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly disclosed threats of criminal indictment allegedly issued by the Trump administration. The pretext, Powell said, was tied to the Fed's headquarters renovation, but the underlying motive was to pressure the central bank into cutting interest rates. The market reaction was swift: the U.S. dollar broadly declined, equity futures slipped, and Treasury futures rose, as investors scrambled to reassess the implications of heightened political interference in monetary policymaking.

This conflict signals a renewed phase in the long-simmering struggle over Federal Reserve independence, a pillar of market confidence in U.S. financial governance. The timing is especially sensitive as the Fed balances inflation risks with signs of slowing economic momentum in early 2026.

Investor Reactions: Not Panic, But Deep Concern

Despite the sharp rhetoric, market analysts are not yet signaling panic. Vishnu Varathan, Head of Macro Research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho in Singapore, noted that the independence debate has returned to the fore but may still be fluid:

“The Fed independence question is now well and alive and maybe subject to re-evaluation every few meetings… Trump could still appoint someone credible, so markets aren't panicking as yet.”

Andrew Lilley, Chief Rates Strategist at Barrenjoey in Sydney, offered a more direct interpretation. He suggested the legal threat was symbolic, not actionable:

“Trump is pulling at the loose threads of central bank independence… he knows he's not going to take control of the Fed, so he wants to exert as much undue pressure as he can.”

According to Lilley, the real power to change interest rates still resides with the FOMC’s internal majority, which remains intact:

“The cash rate will stay what the majority of the FOMC wants it to be.”

Market Signals Reflect Defensive Positioning

Following Powell’s remarks, the dollar index dipped 0.17%, while U.S. stock futures already under pressure from global geopolitical risks saw modest declines. U.S. Treasuries, in contrast, rose as investors shifted into safe-haven assets, reflecting cautious sentiment rather than full-blown risk-off behavior.

Markets appear to interpret the feud more as political noise than a shift in actual monetary policy. However, the underlying concern is not unfounded: persistent pressure from the executive branch can eventually erode institutional autonomy, which in turn could affect inflation expectations, rate credibility, and capital flows into U.S. markets.

The Trump-Powell confrontation introduces a new layer of uncertainty to U.S. monetary policy. While the Fed’s rate decisions remain insulated for now, the optics of political threats cast a shadow over future credibility. Investors are adjusting portfolios defensively, not because a rate shift is imminent, but because the risk premium for political volatility in U.S. monetary governance just went up. How this plays out will depend on whether rhetoric escalates into tangible institutional change or fades as an aggressive but ultimately symbolic gesture.

Source: Reuters

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Henry Thompson

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Political

President Donald Trump has declared that credit card companies will be "in violation of the law" if they fail to cap their interest rates at 10% for one year.

Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump reiterated his demand, setting a January 20 deadline for lenders to comply. He sharply criticized existing rates, which he claimed are punishing consumers unfairly.

"Some of them are charging 28, almost 30%," Trump stated. "People don't know they're paying 30%. They're working and have no idea they're paying 30%." He concluded that major lenders have "really abused the credit cards."

The Legal Mystery Behind Trump's Threat

Despite the strong warning, Trump did not cite any specific legislation or provide a legal basis for how lenders would be breaking the law by maintaining their current rates. The demand appears to be a presidential directive without explicit statutory backing.

The issue of high credit card interest rates, often exceeding 20% in recent years, has previously drawn attention from lawmakers. However, legislative efforts to impose caps have consistently faced strong resistance from the financial industry.

Industry Warns Rate Cap Could Hurt Consumers

In response to the president's call, major banking trade groups, including the Bank Policy Institute and the Consumer Bankers Association, adopted a measured tone. While acknowledging the president's goal, they pushed back on the proposed solution.

"We share the president's goal of helping Americans access more affordable credit," the groups said in a joint statement.

However, they argued that the evidence shows a 10% interest rate cap would backfire. The groups warned such a move "would reduce credit availability and be devastating for millions of American families and small business owners who rely on and value their credit cards."

The industry's long-standing position is that slashing rates would make lending to higher-risk borrowers unprofitable, potentially cutting off their access to credit and leaving them with options like payday loans and pawn shops.

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