Trump Floats India Trade Deal to Cut Russian Oil

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has reportedly ordered the commencement of nuclear negotiations with the United States. The move comes as U.S. President Donald Trump balances threats of military action with public hopes for a diplomatic deal to de-escalate rising tensions in the Middle East.

The diplomatic signal from Tehran follows a period of intense pressure, including the deployment of a U.S. aircraft carrier group to the region and a deadly government crackdown on widespread anti-government protests within Iran. While Trump has expressed optimism about reaching an agreement, Tehran has maintained its desire for a diplomatic solution, even as it promises a powerful response to any military aggression.

Figure 1: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has reportedly authorized negotiations with the United States on the country's nuclear program, according to local media reports.

Tehran Signals a Push for Negotiations

According to a Fars news agency report citing an unnamed government source, President Pezeshkian has officially ordered the opening of talks. The report was echoed by the government newspaper Iran and the reformist daily Shargh.

Adding to these reports, U.S. news outlet Axios cited two sources stating that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to meet with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in Istanbul on Friday to explore a potential deal.

The push for dialogue follows Trump’s warning that "time is running out" for Iran to negotiate on its nuclear program, which Western powers believe is intended to produce an atomic bomb—a claim Iran has consistently denied.

In a recent CNN interview, Araghchi appeared to outline a basis for a deal. "President Trump said no nuclear weapons, and we fully agree," he stated. "That could be a very good deal," he added, clarifying Iran's expectation for "sanctions lifting" in return.

Earlier, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that Tehran was developing a framework for negotiations, with messages being relayed through regional intermediaries.

Regional Diplomacy Heats Up as Tensions Mount

Turkey has taken a leading role in diplomatic efforts to defuse the situation. Last week, Foreign Minister Araghchi visited Istanbul and held discussions with counterparts from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

Following these talks, Jordan's top diplomat, Ayman Safadi, assured Araghchi that the kingdom would "not be a battleground in any regional conflict or a launching pad for any military action against Iran."

Despite these diplomatic overtures, Iran's leadership, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued stark warnings that any U.S. attack would ignite a "regional war."

Domestic Unrest and Economic Pain Shape Iran's Stance

The geopolitical maneuvering is set against a backdrop of severe domestic turmoil and economic hardship. Ali Hamidi, a 68-year-old pensioner and veteran in Tehran, expressed a mix of defiance and frustration. "I am not afraid of war," he said, adding, "America should mind its own business."

However, he also criticized the government's handling of the economy. "Iranian officials are also at fault for not providing for the people. The economic troubles are back-breaking... The officials should do something tangible, not just talk."

The protests, which began in late December over economic strain, rapidly intensified in early January. The Iranian government has characterized the demonstrations as "riots" instigated by the United States and Israel, with Khamenei calling them a "coup" attempt.

The human cost of the crackdown remains disputed. The presidency recently published the names of 2,986 of the 3,117 people it confirmed were killed, stating that most were security forces or innocent bystanders who died in "terrorist acts." In contrast, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reports it has confirmed 6,842 deaths, primarily protesters killed by security forces, and warns the true figure is likely much higher.

The atmosphere of fear has driven some to leave. Selina, a 25-year-old who traveled to Iraqi Kurdistan, described "living in fear." She told AFP, "It's not safe for us" in Iran. "We don't even dare to go out after 6:00 pm because soldiers are everywhere."

International Pressure Mounts with New Sanctions

The brutal response to the protests has triggered a wave of international condemnation and punitive measures. The European Union has designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. In retaliation, Iranian lawmakers passed a measure on Sunday applying the same label to European armies.

The EU has also imposed new sanctions on Iranian officials, including the interior minister. The UK followed suit on Monday, announcing sanctions on 10 individuals for their role in the "brutality against protesters."

In response, Iran's foreign ministry summoned all EU member state ambassadors in Tehran and has promised further action.

Meanwhile, arrests have continued. Iranian state television announced that four foreigners had been detained in Tehran for "participation in riots," though their nationalities were not disclosed. Rights groups estimate that at least 40,000 people have been detained in connection with the protests.

Tehran’s leadership is growing increasingly concerned that a U.S. military strike could shatter its hold on power by driving an enraged public back onto the streets, according to six current and former Iranian officials. The concern follows a brutal crackdown on anti-government protests that has left the nation on edge.

In a series of high-level meetings, officials have reportedly warned Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that public anger is at a breaking point. Four officials briefed on these discussions stated that the leadership was told the fear that once deterred dissent is no longer effective after last month's crackdown—the deadliest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Internal Alarms: Officials Warn Khamenei of Public Rage

The core message delivered to Khamenei was that many Iranians are prepared to confront security forces again. An external shock, such as a limited U.S. military strike, could embolden them and cause irreparable damage to the political establishment.

"An attack combined with demonstrations by angry people could lead to a collapse of the ruling system," one official told Reuters on the condition of anonymity. "That is the main concern among the top officials and that is what our enemies want."

This private anxiety marks a stark contrast to Tehran's defiant public stance toward both the protesters and the United States. While the sources did not disclose how Khamenei responded to the warnings, the internal discussions reveal deep-seated misgivings about the regime's stability.

The warnings come as U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing military options against Iran. These options are said to include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders, a move intended to inspire protesters. Meanwhile, a U.S. aircraft carrier and its supporting warships have moved into the Middle East, expanding Washington's capacity for military action.

"The Wall of Fear Has Collapsed"

A former senior official with a moderate stance said the political landscape has fundamentally changed since the crackdown in early January. "People are extremely angry," he said, noting a U.S. attack could trigger another popular uprising. "The wall of fear has collapsed. There is no fear left."

This sentiment is echoed by opposition figures who were once part of the establishment. They have warned that "boiling public anger" could result in the collapse of the Islamic system.

Former Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi, who has been under house arrest since 2011, issued a powerful statement from his confinement. "The river of warm blood that was spilled on the cold month of January will not stop boiling until it changes the course of history," he declared. "In what language should people say they do not want this system and do not believe your lies? Enough is enough. The game is over."

During the January protests, security forces used lethal force, killing thousands and wounding many more, according to witnesses and human rights groups. The Iranian government blamed the violence on "armed terrorists" linked to the U.S. and Israel.

The Specter of a Future 'Bloodbath'

While the streets are currently quiet, analysts and insiders say the deep-seated grievances fueling the protests have not disappeared. Public frustration continues to simmer over economic decline, political repression, corruption, and a widening gap between the rich and poor.

Officials fear that if protests resume amid heightened foreign pressure, demonstrators will be bolder and more determined, driven by the feeling they have little left to lose. One official warned that if the establishment comes under U.S. attack, it will respond to new protests with even harsher methods. The result, he said, would be a "bloodbath."

Ordinary Iranians also expect a severe response to any future demonstrations. However, for some, the risk is now worth taking.

A Tehran resident whose 15-year-old son was killed on January 9 said protesters were only seeking a normal life but were met "with bullets."

"If America attacks," she said, "I will go back to the streets to take revenge for my son and the children this regime killed."

Russia has largely halted its attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on Monday, providing a crucial reprieve as Kyiv prepares for trilateral peace talks with Russian and U.S. officials.

While energy facilities in frontline areas continue to take fire, Zelenskyy noted a 24-hour pause in targeted missile and drone strikes on the national grid. This lull comes as Ukraine struggles to repair its power system amid a harsh winter and Russia appears to be shifting its military focus to transport logistics.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses the ongoing conflict and diplomatic efforts.

"The de-escalation measures... are helping to build public trust in the negotiation process and its possible outcome," Zelenskyy said after meeting his negotiating team. "The war needs to be ended."

Looking ahead to peace talks scheduled this week in Abu Dhabi, he added, "Ukraine is ready for real steps. We believe it is realistic to achieve a dignified and lasting peace."

A Disputed Truce Timeline

While both Russia and Ukraine acknowledged a halt to strikes on each other's energy infrastructure last week, they disagree on the ceasefire's duration.

The Kremlin stated that U.S. President Donald Trump personally asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to avoid striking Kyiv until February 1. However, Zelenskyy maintained the truce was intended to last for one week, beginning on January 30.

Race Against Time to Restore Power

For Ukraine, the pause is critical. The country is scrambling to restore its battered energy system and ensure stable electricity and heating following several major Russian attacks this month. Repair efforts have been severely hampered by freezing temperatures.

"Today we are coming to the critical point. We need some time to recover what is destroyed for the last three months," explained Maxim Timchenko, CEO of private energy company DTEK. He stressed that an "energy ceasefire is extremely important for us to recover partly and avoid any tragic consequences because of no power supply."

Russia Shifts Focus as Attacks Continue

Despite the lull in energy strikes, other attacks persist. DTEK reported on Monday that one of its coal mining operations in the Dnipropetrovsk region was attacked for the second time in 24 hours. A previous strike on Sunday killed 12 miners at a different coal mine in the same region.

President Zelenskyy also noted that Russian forces are now concentrating on transport logistics, particularly railway infrastructure.

The human cost remains high in frontline regions. Officials in the Donetsk region reported that a Russian strike killed a father and son, while wounding two other children and their mother.

A statement posted on OPEC's website on February 1 revealed that, in a meeting held on Sunday, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman "reaffirmed their decision on 2 November 2025 to pause production increments in March 2026 due to seasonality".

According to a table accompanying the statement, "required production" in March this year is 10.103 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.574 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.273 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.411 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.580 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.569 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 971,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 811,000 barrels per day for Oman.

The statement highlighted that the eight OPEC+ countries, "which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023", met virtually on February 1 "to review global market conditions and outlook". It said the eight participating countries "reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner".

"The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023," the statement said.

"The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee," it added.

"They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024," it continued.

The statement went on to note that the eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings "to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation", adding that the eight countries will meet on March 1.

A separate statement posted on OPEC's site on Sunday announced that the 64th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) took place via videoconference that day, adding that the JMMC reviewed the crude oil production data for the months of November and December 2025 "and noted the overall conformity for OPEC and non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation".

"The committee reiterated the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation, and reviewed the updated compensation schedules," the statement said.

"The committee also reaffirmed that it will continue to monitor adherence to the production adjustments decided upon at the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) held on 5 December 2024, and the additional voluntary production adjustments announced by some participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries as agreed upon in the 52nd JMMC held on 1 February 2024," it added.

"The JMMC retains the authority to convene additional meetings or to request an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, as established during the 38th ONOMM held on 5 December 2024," it continued.

The next meeting of the JMMC is scheduled for April 5, according to the statement.

In another statement posted on OPEC's site on February 2, the OPEC Secretariat announced that it had received updated compensation plans from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kazakhstan, and Oman.

A table accompanying this statement showed that these compensation plans amount to a total of 659,000 barrels per day in January 2026, 789,000 barrels per day in February, 665,000 barrels per day in March, 706,000 barrels per day in April, 707,000 barrels per day in May, and 807,000 barrels per day in June.

"As agreed during the virtual meeting held by the eight countries with additional voluntary adjustments, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman on 4 January 2026, the OPEC Secretariat received updated compensation plans," the OPEC Secretariat said in the statement.

Source: Rigzone

The European Union faces a major struggle to reduce its dependence on China and other nations for the critical minerals and rare earths essential for modern technology, from smartphones and wind turbines to military hardware.

A stark report from the European Court of Auditors (ECA) concludes that the bloc's 2030 self-sufficiency targets are "out of reach." The auditors point to a severe lack of progress in developing domestic production, refining capacity, and recycling programs.

"It is therefore vital for the EU to up its game and reduce its vulnerability in this area," said Keit Pentus-Rosimannus, the ECA member who led the audit.

The report highlights a wide gap between the EU's goals—such as generating 42.5% of its energy from renewables by 2030—and the reality of its insecure supply chains.

Domestic Production Woefully Behind Schedule

The ECA's findings on the EU's internal capacity are particularly damning. The report states that mining and exploration within the bloc are "underdeveloped."

Even when new mineral deposits are discovered, the process is painfully slow. According to the audit, "it can take 20 years for an EU mining project to become operational." This timeline makes any significant contribution by the 2030 deadline difficult to imagine.

The EU aims to boost domestic mining to reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers, but new projects can take up to 20 years to become operational.

Global Alliances Scramble to Counter China

As the EU's internal efforts lag, Western nations are coordinating to diversify their mineral sources and de-risk their supply chains from China.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio convened a summit of approximately 20 countries in Washington to address the sourcing of lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements—all vital for solar panels, wind turbines, and electric car batteries. The summit is viewed as an effort to mend transatlantic relations after friction with Donald Trump.

Separately, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his Japanese counterpart, Sanae Takaichi, agreed during talks in Tokyo to accelerate cooperation on critical minerals.

Mapping the EU's Deep Dependence on Imports

An analysis of the EU's supply chains reveals a heavy reliance on a few key countries, particularly China and Russia. Russia, for example, supplies 29% of the nickel used in the EU's automotive and aerospace industries.

Reliance on China

The EU is heavily dependent on China for at least seven of the 26 critical minerals studied. Key imports include:

• Magnesium: 97% (used in hydrogen production)

• Gallium: 71% (used in smartphones and satellite communications)

• Tungsten: 31% (used in drilling and mining)

China also dominates the market for rare earths, controlling between 69% and 74% of six crucial elements. This includes neodymium and praseodymium, which are essential for the permanent magnets found in everything from car locking systems to wind turbines. In 2024 alone, 17,000 of the 20,000 tonnes of permanent magnets used by EU industry came from China.

Other Key Suppliers

The EU's dependency extends beyond China. Chile is a major source of lithium for electric car batteries, while Turkey supplies 99% of the bloc's boron, a material used in solar panels.

A Vicious Cycle Threatening EU Autonomy

The ECA warns that the EU may be "trapped in a vicious circle." Without a secure supply of these materials, its strategic goals are at risk.

"Without critical raw materials, there will be no energy transition, no competitiveness, and no strategic autonomy," said Pentus-Rosimannus. "Unfortunately, we are now dangerously dependent on a handful of countries outside the EU for the supply of these materials."

This sentiment was echoed by EU industry commissioner Stéphane Séjourné, who stated that Europe was "doomed to be just a playground for its competitors" if it fails to develop an "ambitious, effective and pragmatic industrial policy."

The auditors concluded that the EU's "efforts to diversify imports have yet to produce tangible results." In fact, partnerships established with seven countries to boost supplies actually saw deliveries fall between 2020 and 2024.

The statistics paint a stark picture: 10 of the 26 main critical minerals are entirely imported, none of the 17 rare earth metals are mined within the EU, and only 16 critical raw materials are currently recycled in the bloc.

Greenland’s government has accused Washington of continuing to pursue control over the strategic Arctic island, asserting that the U.S. objective remains unchanged even after President Donald Trump ruled out military action.

Figure 1: U.S. President Donald Trump's stated interest in Greenland has created diplomatic and psychological pressure on the Arctic island's population.

In a speech to the island's parliament in Nuuk, Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen delivered a stark warning about Washington's intentions. "The view upon Greenland and the population has not changed: Greenland is to be tied to the U.S. and governed from there," Nielsen stated, adding that the U.S. continues to seek "paths to ownership and control over Greenland."

Background: Trump's Push and NATO's Role

Earlier this year, President Trump intensified calls for the U.S. to take control of Greenland, citing national security concerns related to Russia and China. The move drew criticism from some European NATO allies, who defended Denmark's sovereignty over the territory and warned that Trump's pressure could fracture the alliance.

While the U.S. president later stepped back from any threats of force, he claimed to have secured "total U.S. access" to Greenland through a NATO deal, though the specifics of this arrangement have not been clarified.

Public Anxiety Prompts Mental Health Survey

The sustained pressure from the U.S. has taken a toll on the island's population. The Greenlandic government recently launched a survey to assess the mental health of its citizens, citing an environment of "extraordinary pressure."

"Some of our compatriots have severe sleep problems, children feel the worry and anxiety of adults, and we all live with constant uncertainty about what may happen tomorrow," Nielsen said. "We want to say it very clearly: This is completely unacceptable."

Diplomatic Talks Begin Amid Tensions

In response to the escalating situation, diplomatic talks involving the United States, Denmark, and Greenland commenced last week. According to Denmark's foreign ministry, senior officials met to "discuss how we can address American concerns about security in the Arctic while respecting the Kingdom's red lines."

Throughout the crisis, Nielsen has praised Denmark as a close and reliable partner. He has previously said that if Greenlanders were forced to choose between the U.S. and Denmark, they would unequivocally choose Denmark. His latest speech made no reference to independence for Greenland.

Cultural Divide Over Land and Sovereignty

The debate over ownership directly conflicts with the cultural values of Greenland's native Inuit population. Under Greenlandic law, which reflects the Inuit concept of collective land stewardship, individuals can own houses but not the land on which they are built. This foundational principle stands in sharp contrast to the U.S. approach to land ownership, adding another layer of complexity to the diplomatic standoff.