Trump and Petro Set For Tense White House Meeting

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Source: investinglive

The U.S. government is preparing to issue a general license that would permit companies to resume pumping oil in Venezuela. This marks a critical step in the Trump administration's plan to ease sanctions and rebuild the nation's struggling energy sector.

Sources familiar with the plan indicate the Treasury Department could release the new license as early as this week. While the Treasury has not officially commented, the White House has signaled its intent.

"The President's team is working around the clock to ensure oil companies are able to make investments in Venezuela's oil infrastructure. Stay tuned!" said Taylor Rogers, a White House spokeswoman.

This policy shift is designed to attract U.S.-linked companies to help rebuild production in Venezuela, a nation with some of the world's largest oil reserves. The move follows a U.S. military operation in Caracas that resulted in the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro.

A Broader Strategy to Revive the Oil Sector

The upcoming license for production builds on previous measures aimed at restarting Venezuela's oil trade. Last week, the U.S. issued a separate general license authorizing companies to buy and sell Venezuelan crude. That license covered downstream activities like loading, exporting, and refining oil, provided the operations were handled by an "established US entity."

Before that, the administration had granted individual approvals to trading giants Trafigura Group and Vitol Group to restart Venezuelan oil sales. These moves helped clear a bottleneck caused by a partial U.S. naval blockade that had stifled exports and filled the country's storage tanks to capacity.

With exports flowing again, Venezuela's heavy sour crude is re-entering the global market. The primary destination is now shifting from Chinese buyers, who had absorbed discounted supply under previous sanctions, back to U.S. refiners, which were historically the top market for Venezuelan oil.

The New Political and Economic Framework

Following the capture of Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, the Trump administration has backed his former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. A core part of its stabilization plan involves asserting control over Venezuela's dilapidated oil industry.

A central pillar of this strategy is a new payment system. Companies with U.S. connections operating in Venezuela are now required to deposit payments into a U.S.-controlled bank account in Qatar. The Trump administration then releases these funds to Venezuela's Central Bank, which in turn auctions the dollars to private local operators.

Investor Caution and Signs of Opening

Despite these new frameworks, companies without an existing presence in Venezuela remain cautious. According to sources, concerns about political risk and the long-term stability of the current government are holding back new investment.

Still, the Rodríguez government is taking steps to improve the business climate, running parallel to the U.S. initiatives. These measures include:

• Improving fiscal terms for oil companies.

• Releasing political prisoners.

• Separately, the U.S. has reopened Venezuelan airspace to commercial flights.

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Outlook

Source: investing

Key Points:

• Support emerges near $80: Silver is attempting to carve out a floor, with the $80 level and the 50‑day EMA offering initial support. Traders hope for a measured recovery toward $100 rather than another impulsive rally.
• Downside risk to $50 persists: A drop below $70 could see the metal retest the long‑term $50 breakout point. This scenario explains why caution and disciplined risk management remain essential.
• Recovery may be slow: Friday's sell‑off scarred the market; wide stops and small positions are prudent as confidence rebuilds. Still, the current stabilization could signal the start of a gradual rebound.

Silver Price Analysis – Silver Starting to Build a Floor

Silver continues to search for a bottom after last Friday's wipeout. Although prices are stabilizing, caution remains warranted in this volatile market.

Silver finds support near $80 and the 50‑day EMA

The silver market rallied slightly during early Tuesday trading as the $80 level — and the 50‑day exponential moving average — provided support. Traders see short‑term dips as buying opportunities as the metal tries to grind back toward the $100 mark. However, analysts caution that a slow and steady advance would be healthier than the impulsive behaviour seen previously.

Source: TradingView

Market scenarios and recovery outlook

There remains a distinct possibility that silver could fall below $70 and retest $50, a level that served as a ceiling for decades. The market broke out above $50 without retesting it, so some traders are watching for a pullback to that region.

Last Friday's dramatic candlestick has left the market scarred, and confidence may take time to rebuild. Wide stop losses and smaller position sizes are advised to manage risk: the last thing you want is to be caught in another large move and see your account evaporate. Despite the uncertainty, the recent stabilization represents a promising start to a potential recovery.

Source: FX Empire

The Canadian government is weighing the return of federal subsidies for electric vehicles as it prepares to launch a new national automotive strategy. According to sources familiar with the matter, the administration of Prime Minister Mark Carney is working to balance its climate objectives with a rapidly changing global trade landscape.

A Look Back at the Original iZEV Program

The potential revival follows the suspension of Canada's original EV incentive program, known as iZEV, over a year ago. The initiative, which provided buyers with up to $5,000 toward the purchase of eligible zero-emission vehicles, was halted after its funding was depleted by a surge in consumer demand.

What to Expect from the Broader Auto Plan

The upcoming national strategy is expected to provide clarity on several key issues facing the sector. A senior Canadian official indicated the plan will address not only consumer rebates but also the status of the recently paused federal EV sales mandate. Furthermore, it will tackle crucial topics like infrastructure requirements and how to manage recent interest from foreign investors.

Trade Deal with Beijing Shapes Domestic Policy

This policy shift comes on the heels of a high-profile visit to Beijing, where Prime Minister Carney negotiated new automotive trade terms. During the summit, Canada agreed to lower tariffs on as many as 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles imported annually.

In return for this concession, Beijing committed to reducing or removing its trade barriers on a range of Canadian agricultural exports. The senior official emphasized that the new auto strategy would provide much-needed direction for a sector already facing "extreme pressure" from evolving global trade dynamics.

Cabinet members have not disclosed the potential financial scale of any renewed rebate program. The finalized national automotive strategy is reportedly scheduled for a public release later this month.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on Tuesday tempered expectations that a productivity boom could clear the way for further interest rate cuts, highlighting a critical debate taking shape at the U.S. central bank. While acknowledging that rising productivity is helping ease cost pressures for businesses, he expressed skepticism that the trend is strong enough to fundamentally alter the inflation outlook.

Gauging the Productivity Surge

The debate centers on recent economic data. Productivity saw a sharp jump of nearly 5% in the third quarter of 2025, a figure that has fueled arguments for a more dovish monetary policy.

However, Barkin urged caution, pointing out that productivity is a volatile and imperfectly measured metric. He suggested that the four-quarter average, which he estimates to be around 2%, offers a more reliable gauge of the underlying trend. While this represents an improvement over recent years, it falls short of the kind of explosive growth that could single-handedly tame inflation.

"I do think productivity is up," Barkin told reporters. "The hard part with productivity, of course, is it's not perfectly measured."

He added that while he is open to the idea of sustained improvement, he remains unconvinced of a more robust growth outlook for now. "We may get more information over time... that what we saw in the third quarter is actually continuing," Barkin said. "That would be awesome. But I think you want to kind of see."

A Key Debate for Fed Policy

Higher productivity allows companies to increase output with fewer resources, reducing the need to pass on costs to consumers through higher prices. This dynamic is central to the case being made by figures like Fed chief nominee Kevin Warsh and current Fed Governor Stephen Miran. They argue that technological advances, particularly in artificial intelligence, could unleash enough productivity to warrant further rate cuts, even with inflation still running about a percentage point above the Fed's 2% target.

Barkin acknowledged that productivity gains, combined with deregulation and tax cuts, could bolster the economy. However, he pushed back against direct comparisons to a pivotal moment in Fed history.

Why This Isn't a Repeat of the 1990s

Barkin argued that the current economic environment is fundamentally different from the one former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan navigated in the 1990s. At that time, Greenspan famously resisted calls to raise interest rates, betting correctly that the emerging computer technology boom would fuel non-inflationary growth.

Barkin outlined the key distinctions:

• The 1990s: Demand was strong, but inflation was not a significant concern.

• Today: Demand is not as robust, while inflation remains stubbornly high and has not improved over the past year.

"In their case, demand was quite strong... but inflation wasn't. In our case, demand is not as strong, and inflation is higher," Barkin explained. "It is just a different conversation." He stressed that the public is now contending with a five-year period where the central bank has missed its inflation target.

The Logic Behind Pausing Rate Cuts

This persistent inflation is a primary reason the Federal Reserve paused its rate-cutting cycle last week. Policymakers are concerned that an extended period of high prices could become embedded in public psychology, making it harder to bring inflation back down.

"Inflation... still remains above our target. That's been the case since 2021," Barkin said. "I take this sustained miss seriously... Today's inflation numbers, regardless of the 'why,' significantly influence tomorrow's inflation."

Although Barkin is not a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year, his perspective aligns with the central bank's current wait-and-see approach as it monitors incoming data on the economy, labor market, and prices.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Richmond Fed president said he expects the economy to stay resilient, supported by "significant stimulus" from deregulation and tax reductions. He noted that business leaders remain confident, reporting that "demand is fine," making it unlikely that consumers or companies will pull back on spending.