Trump And His Tariffs Weigh On Fed’s Rate Decision

When the Federal Reserve last met to decide on interest rates, back in mid-March, Chair Jerome Powell played down concerns about US growth and the inflationary threat from anticipated tariffs, even hinting that any effect on prices could be transitory.

In the six weeks since that meeting, it’s fair to say a lot has happened.

President Donald Trump on April 2 declared “Liberation Day” by imposing the biggest tariffs in a century on imported goods. Financial markets went into a tailspin, and businesses big and small complained about the turmoil the move would cause to their operations. Trump eventually pressed pause on a chunk of his planned tariffs but pressed ahead with levies on sectors such as autos and steel, a 10% rate on most countries and a whopping 145% on most goods coming from China.

But the fallout continues. This week alone Ford Motor Co. suspended its full-year financial guidance and said Trump’s auto tariffs will take a toll on profit. Mattel Inc. withdrew its forecast for a return to sales growth in 2025, citing the effect Trump’s tariffs will have on its Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels cars and other toys.

How all of this ultimately affects the economy remains an intense debate. The White House says the shock-and-awe tariffs are forcing billions of dollars in corporate investment in the US that will create new jobs. The stock market rout turned into a historic rally as the S&P has unwound a wild selloff.

Which is why executives and investors are leaning on observers in the middle, who strive to stay above the political fracas, for guidance on where all of this is going. One of those observers is Powell, who on Wednesday will decide—with his policy board after a two-day meeting—on whether to lower interest rates.

Investors are betting rates won’t be cut, at least for now, given the economy continues to hold up (April’s jobs data suggest ongoing labor market strength) and inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

Which means listeners to Powell’s news conference will want to hear not just his views on how businesses and households are handling the impact of tariffs right now but also, and more crucially, his thoughts on how they will be doing in the months ahead. The Fed in March lowered its growth projections for the economy, and Powell may be asked if another downgrade is coming.

There’s an extra political edge here too. The Fed chair has come under intense criticism from Trump, who has accused him of being too slow—“Mr. Too Late”—to cut interest rates and said Powell’s termination from office can’t come soon enough (even as he says he won’t fire him).

Against that backdrop, Powell won’t want to drag the Fed into the white heat of the political row over tariffs.

But neither will he get a pass from investors if he sticks to a line that it’s too soon to gauge how much pain the tariffs will inflict. Powell drew criticism for missing the buildup of inflation post-pandemic. He won’t want to be accused of misreading the tariff effect either.

Related: One Ship, $417 Million in New Tariffs: The Cost of Trump’s Trade War

Bliss Bednar’s 2023 Volkswagen Atlas was running just fine. Sure, it wasn’t the fanciest car she’d ever owned, but with home renovations to plan and rising construction costs already threatening her remodeling budget, the retired teacher in central Texas planned to stick with the three-row SUV for the foreseeable future.

Then President Donald Trump outlined 25% tariffs on auto imports, and she joined the millions of Americans racing to dealerships to snap up new models before the higher levies drive up prices by thousands of dollars.

“I was a little reluctant, because there was nothing wrong with the car I had,” says Bednar, 58. After offloading the VW, she purchased a 2025 BMW X3 for about $65,000 with a $20,000 down payment, leaving her with a $500 monthly bill. It’s affordable for now, but she worries she’ll feel squeezed if everyday prices continue to rise. “I was afraid of tariffs, and I was afraid prices were going to skyrocket. Then I was like, ‘Maybe I jumped on this too soon,’ ” she says.

Because of Trump’s tariffs, which went into effect on April 3 for finished cars and trucks but will take time to trickle down to the models on dealers’ lots, financial planners across the US say they’ve received an onslaught of inquiries from clients trying to purchase new vehicles. The president’s directives signed last week are meant to soften the car-tariff blow, in part by preventing multiple levies from piling on top of each other, but those buyers who raced to lock down vehicles are still on the hook for years of payments. For financially stable buyers, getting out ahead of price hikes can be a “prudent decision,” says Michael Girard, senior director for asset-backed securities in North America for Fitch Ratings Inc. But the high cost of new cars combined with the urgency to buy before tariffs hit could be a recipe for remorse should the economy slip into recession.

Claire Ballentine and Keith Naughton write about the potential for a financial hangover: Pre-Tariff Car Buying Frenzy Leaves Americans With a Big Debt Problem

Caroline Biddle thought she was doing the right thing when she opened up to her employer about her need for fertility treatment. Then she got her next paycheck and saw her salary had been docked for every time she had attended an appointment. Even more shocking, Biddle thought, her employer—a high school near Birmingham, England—wasn’t breaking any rules.

The law in the UK, like in most places, doesn’t afford any protection to people who take time out of work for in vitro fertilization, a process that can involve dozens of unpredictable appointments for scans, blood tests and procedures, alongside self-administered hormone injections that commonly cause mood swings, brain fog and intense fatigue.

The performing arts teacher remembers returning to work two days after a treatment, even though it was still painful to walk, because she couldn’t afford any more unpaid leave. Within a year, she’d quit her job and moved to a more supportive school, but after she finally had a child, she decided not to return to teaching. “I just remember feeling really devalued,” Biddle says. “I became really jaded with my whole career.”

Few would dispute that women drop out of the workforce or downgrade to less strenuous roles after having children. Less well known is that for many, the process starts long before a child’s birth.

Fertility treatment is specifically difficult on women’s responsibilities because there’s little flexibility as to when certain procedures take place. Natasha Doff writes about what that costs women: Why Juggling IVF With Work Can Be a Career Killer

Source: Bloomberg Europe