Trump Adopts Cautious Tone on Iran Protest Crackdown

King Ten

Political

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Middle East Situation

Daily News

Summary:

Trump's cautious shift on Iran de-escalates tensions, calming markets amid reports of subsiding protests.

President Donald Trump has signaled a shift to a more cautious "wait-and-see" stance on Iran, stating he believes the violent crackdown on protesters is subsiding and that there is no current plan for large-scale executions. The comments mark a de-escalation after earlier threats of U.S. intervention.

This development follows reports from Iranian state media that a 26-year-old man arrested during protests will not face the death penalty, contradicting earlier claims by a human rights group.

Key takeaways from the situation include:

• Trump believes there is no immediate plan for mass executions in Iran.

• Iranian state media has denied a death sentence for a 26-year-old protester.

• The possibility of U.S. military action has not been completely ruled out.

• Trump expressed doubt about opposition figure Reza Pahlavi's ability to lead.

This screengrab from Iranian state media shows burnt vehicles in Tehran, evidence of the intense unrest that has gripped the country.

Military Tensions and Market Reactions

Fears of a U.S. strike in the Middle East had been growing after Trump repeatedly threatened to intervene on behalf of Iranian protesters. On Wednesday, Iran warned its neighbors that it would target American bases in the region if the U.S. launched attacks. A U.S. official also confirmed that some American personnel were being withdrawn from regional bases, and Qatar acknowledged drawdowns from Al Udeid air base, the largest U.S. facility in the region, citing "current regional tensions."

Trump's subsequent remarks on Wednesday, however, helped calm the markets. Oil prices retreated from multi-month highs, and gold eased from a record peak on Thursday. While the president did not entirely rule out future military action, his tone suggested a move away from imminent conflict. "We are going to watch what the process is," he said, noting his administration had received a "very good statement" from Iran.

Last year, Iran launched missiles at Al Udeid in response to U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear installations during a 12-day war with Israel.

Protests Subside Amid Heavy Crackdown

The recent unrest, which began over soaring prices, has presented one of the most significant challenges to Iran's clerical establishment since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The crackdown has been severe, with reports indicating more than 2,500 people have been killed—a figure that far exceeds the death tolls from previous protests, including the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement and the 2009 election unrest.

Sources inside Iran contacted by Reuters said the protests appeared to have died down since Monday, although an internet blackout has made information difficult to obtain.

Speaking at the White House, Trump claimed to have received information from "very important sources on the other side" that the killings were subsiding. Echoing this, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told Fox News on Wednesday that "there is no plan for hanging at all," calling such a possibility "out of the question."

The Case of Essam Soltani

Adding to this narrative, Iranian state media reported Thursday on the case of 26-year-old Essam Soltani, who was arrested during protests in the city of Karaj. While a rights organization, Hengaw, had previously stated he was scheduled for execution, state media clarified that the death penalty does not apply to the charges he faces—"colluding against the country's internal security and propaganda activities against the regime"—even if a court confirms them.

Iranian authorities have framed the demonstrations as legitimate economic grievances co-opted by foreign enemies and "terrorists" who attacked security forces and public property.

Trump Questions Opposition Leadership

During the unrest, Reza Pahlavi, the U.S.-based son of Iran's last Shah, has emerged as a prominent voice in the fragmented opposition. In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Trump offered a mixed assessment of the 65-year-old, who has lived outside Iran since before his father was overthrown in 1979.

"He seems very nice, but I don't know how he'd play within his own country," Trump said. "I don't know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me."

When asked about the possibility of the government in Tehran falling due to the protests, Trump acknowledged that "any regime can fail." He concluded, "Whether or not it falls or not, it's going to be an interesting period of time."

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Gerik

Economic

A Broad-Based Visa Freeze Anchored In Welfare Concerns

The US State Department announced that it will pause the issuance of new immigrant visas for citizens of 75 countries, arguing that immigrants from these nations rely on public assistance at what it described as unacceptable rates. The freeze, which takes effect on January 21, represents one of the most expansive nationality-based immigration restrictions in recent years, both in scale and geographic scope.

According to official statements released on social media and later published on the State Department’s website, the policy is designed to prevent future immigrants from becoming a public charge. The administration framed the move as a fiscal safeguard, asserting that the United States must ensure new immigrants do not extract wealth from American taxpayers through welfare programs.

Global Reach Reflects A Systemic Policy Shift

The affected countries span every major region, including the Americas, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Africa. The list includes US allies, geopolitical rivals, and several nations that are also popular travel destinations for American tourists. This wide coverage suggests that the policy is not narrowly targeted at security threats or diplomatic adversaries, but instead reflects a systemic redefinition of immigration eligibility based on projected economic outcomes.

By focusing on anticipated welfare usage rather than individual circumstances, the policy links national origin with aggregate fiscal risk. The relationship implied here is correlational rather than case-specific, as the assessment relies on statistical patterns attributed to countries rather than individualized determinations of an applicant’s financial capacity.

What The Freeze Does And Does Not Affect

The suspension applies only to new immigrant visas, meaning it does not impact tourist visas, temporary travel, or visas that have already been granted. Individuals who currently hold immigrant visas are not affected. However, senior immigration officials have indicated that previously issued visas, particularly those granted during the prior administration, are under review.

Joseph Edlow, director of US Citizenship and Immigration Services, stated that a comprehensive reassessment of green cards issued to nationals from countries of concern is underway. This review has been positioned as a corrective measure aimed at reversing what the administration characterizes as overly permissive resettlement policies in recent years.

Policy Rationale And Economic Framing

The administration’s justification rests on the premise that immigration should be conditioned on economic self-sufficiency. By prioritizing fiscal considerations, the policy aligns immigration control more closely with domestic budgetary discipline. The stated goal is to ensure that future immigrants contribute economically rather than rely on social safety nets.

This framing establishes a direct causal link in policy logic between immigration intake and long-term public spending. However, it also raises questions about the complexity of labor market integration, wage trajectories, and the broader economic contributions of immigrants over time, which are not explicitly addressed in the policy announcement.

Implications For Immigration And Foreign Relations

The decision is likely to have wide-ranging implications beyond immigration flows alone. For affected countries, the freeze may strain diplomatic relations, particularly where long-standing partnerships exist. Domestically, it signals a continued shift toward restrictive, economically conditioned immigration criteria that favor upfront assessments of fiscal impact.

By embedding welfare risk into visa eligibility at the national level, the US is redefining how immigration policy intersects with social policy. Whether this approach effectively reduces public expenditure or instead reshapes migration patterns in less predictable ways will depend on how the policy is implemented, reviewed, and potentially expanded in the months ahead.

Source: CNBC

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Alexander

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Bond

Central Bank

China's central bank is cutting interest rates on its structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, a targeted move designed to support the economy as it moves into 2026.

A Closer Look at the New Lending Rates

Deputy Governor Zou Lan announced in a Beijing briefing on Thursday that the one-year rate for various relending facilities will fall from 1.5% to 1.25%. These instruments are designed to encourage commercial banks to extend credit to specific sectors of the economy.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will also roll out two other key initiatives:

• A new, dedicated relending program for private companies.

• Increased lending quotas for technology innovation loans.

Policy Context and Future Rate Path

These adjustments signal a commitment to targeted easing as China's economy navigates weak demand and persistent imbalances. The move follows a year of limited action. In 2025, the PBOC only reduced its main policy interest rate once by 10 basis points, far less than the 40 to 60 basis points of easing many analysts had anticipated.

Looking ahead, Zou noted that improved interest margins at commercial banks have created room for a potential reduction in the main policy rate, although he did not provide a specific timeline.

Additional Liquidity and Open Market Operations

To further bolster credit availability, the PBOC will merge and expand existing facilities, providing an extra 500 billion yuan for lending to small businesses and the agricultural sector.

Zou added that the central bank also intends to gradually increase its trading of government bonds through open market operations. This strategy aims to ensure the financial system maintains ample liquidity.

According to Zou, the monetary authority will release detailed documents outlining the implementation of these new policies shortly.

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Michael Ross

Remarks of Officials

Economic

The World Bank has upgraded Nigeria's economic forecast, projecting the nation's economy will expand by 4.4% in both 2026 and 2027. This would mark the fastest growth rate Nigeria has seen in over a decade, according to the bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report.

Key Drivers of the Upgraded Forecast

The optimistic outlook builds on momentum expected in 2025, when growth is anticipated to reach 4.2%. This increase is primarily fueled by a robust expansion in the services sector, particularly in finance and information and communication technology.

Other contributing factors include a modest recovery in agriculture and Nigeria's recent emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products. The World Bank expects this trend to continue, with a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activities further supporting the 4.4% growth projected for the following years.

How Reforms and Oil Output Support Growth

The World Bank highlights that ongoing economic reforms are crucial to this positive trajectory. Improvements to the tax system, combined with a prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity, boost investor confidence, and help bring down inflation.

Furthermore, higher oil output is anticipated to strengthen Nigeria's fiscal position and external balance. This increased production is forecast to offset the impact of lower international oil prices, thereby shoring up government revenues.

Regional Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa

Looking at the broader region, the World Bank projects that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will firm up to 4.3% in 2026. This recovery is supported by ongoing reforms in some of the continent's largest economies, solid domestic investment, and easing inflation.

Many economies in the region are pursuing fiscal consolidation in response to reduced official development assistance, elevated government debt, and higher debt-servicing costs.

Persistent Risks Cloud the Horizon

Despite the improved outlook, the report warns that significant challenges remain. The projected growth in per capita income across Sub-Saharan Africa is still insufficient to make substantial progress in reducing extreme poverty or creating enough jobs for the population.

The risks to the forecast remain tilted to the downside. Key threats to regional growth prospects include:

• Weaker-than-expected external demand

• Lower international commodity prices

• Increased political instability and conflict

• Further declines in donor support, which could heighten vulnerability to shocks like public health crises and natural disasters

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Profit-Taking After Record Rally

Gold prices slipped on Thursday following a sharp rally that pushed the metal to an all-time high in the previous session. Spot gold fell 0.7 percent to 4,589.71 dollars per ounce as of 0501 GMT, after reaching a record 4,642.72 dollars on Wednesday. US gold futures for February delivery declined 0.9 percent to 4,594.10 dollars.

This pullback reflects a short-term market adjustment rather than a structural reversal. After a rapid price surge, investors often lock in gains, particularly when prices approach psychological milestones. The timing of the decline suggests a strong relationship between recent record highs and near-term profit-taking behavior.

Geopolitical Tone Softens Safe-Haven Appeal

A shift in geopolitical messaging also contributed to reduced defensive demand. President Donald Trump signaled a more cautious, wait-and-see approach toward unrest in Iran, easing fears of immediate US military involvement. This change in tone coincided with the price retreat, indicating that gold’s recent surge was closely linked to heightened geopolitical anxiety rather than purely monetary drivers.

While Iran’s leadership continues to face its most severe domestic unrest since the 1979 revolution and has warned US military bases in the region, Trump’s comments suggested restraint rather than escalation. This adjustment lowered near-term risk premiums embedded in gold prices.

Federal Reserve Signals Add To Market Calm

Investor sentiment was further influenced by Trump’s remarks on Federal Reserve leadership. The president stated that he has no plans to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite an ongoing Justice Department investigation, although he noted it was too early to draw final conclusions. This statement helped temper fears of abrupt institutional disruption, reinforcing a calmer risk environment in the short run.

The relationship here is one of market confidence rather than direct policy action. Reduced uncertainty around central bank leadership tends to dampen immediate safe-haven flows, even if longer-term concerns remain unresolved.

Rates Outlook Continues To Support Precious Metals

Despite the pullback, the broader macro framework that has underpinned gold’s advance remains in place. Traders continue to price in two US interest rate cuts later this year, with weekly jobless claims data expected to provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Lower interest rates historically enhance the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold, particularly when combined with macroeconomic and political uncertainty.

This relationship operates through opportunity cost rather than price direction alone. As yields decline, the comparative disadvantage of holding gold diminishes, supporting demand over time.

Silver And Other Metals See Sharper Corrections

Other precious metals experienced steeper declines after recent record-setting moves. Spot silver fell 5.5 percent to 87.62 dollars per ounce after touching an all-time high of 93.57 earlier in the session. Platinum dropped 3.3 percent to 2,305.90 dollars per ounce after reaching a one-week high, while palladium slid 2.6 percent to 1,778.80 dollars, hovering near a one-week low.

These sharper moves highlight how stretched positioning can amplify short-term corrections once sentiment shifts, particularly in metals that have outpaced gold in percentage gains.

The latest decline in gold prices reflects a cooling phase driven by profit-taking and reduced immediate geopolitical stress rather than a breakdown in underlying support. As long as expectations for looser monetary policy, elevated political uncertainty, and structural demand for safe assets persist, the broader upward narrative for gold remains largely unchanged, even as volatility increases around record price levels.

Source: Reuters

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Amazon launched its "sovereign cloud" offering in Europe on Thursday in a move designed to keep it among the leading players in the region even as more stringent regulations for tech giants are enforced.

The term sovereign cloud broadly relates to cloud computing services where the data is stored, handled and not moved out of a specific jurisdiction.

The European Union (EU) has pushed for companies operating in the bloc to be compliant with its various data and privacy regulations, as concerns have risen about the dominance of U.S. tech giants in the cloud space and potential access to European citizens' data.

The Amazon Web Services (AWS) European Sovereign Cloud, based in Brandenburg, Germany, and first announced in 2023, is a new concept. Amazon said in a press release on Thursday that the cloud is "physically and logically separate" from other AWS regions. To do this, Amazon has created a new parent company for the sovereign cloud that will be locally controlled in the European Union (EU) and run by EU citizens.

Stéphane Israël will lead the AWS European Sovereign Cloud. Stefan Hoechbauer, who is vice president of AWS global sales for Germany and Europe Central, has been appointed as a managing director. AWS also announced five new members of an advisory board for the sovereign cloud, three of which are Amazon employees.

AWS said the sovereign cloud has "no critical dependencies on non-EU infrastructure" and it can continue to operate in the event of a communications disruption with the rest of the world. Under "extreme circumstances, authorised AWS employees of the AWS European Sovereign Cloud, who are EU residents, will have independent access to a replica of the source code needed to maintain the AWS European Sovereign Cloud services," the company said.

For the past few years, European politicians and regulators have grown concerned about the dominance of U.S. tech firms over critical technology infrastructure. Despite the EU pushing for regional companies to grow their businesses, AWS, Microsoft and Google account for 70% of the cloud computing market in the region, according to Synergy Research Group.

Even as AWS pushes its sovereign cloud, European regulators are currently investigating cloud computing services from Amazon and Microsoft under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), which aims to curb the power of Big Tech.

In 2024, Amazon said it would invest 7.8 billion euros ($9.1 billion) in the AWS European Sovereign Cloud in Germany through 2040. On Thursday, Amazon said it would expand the AWS European Sovereign Cloud to Belgium, the Netherlands, and Portugal.

Source: CNBC

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King Ten

Remarks of Officials

Data Interpretation

Economic

Central Bank

Chinese banks issued the smallest amount of new loans last year since 2018, with credit expansion continuing to slow in December. This downturn highlights sluggish demand from both businesses and consumers, posing a significant drag on the nation's economic growth.

The slowdown in loan growth is not a recent development. It began in early 2023 and persisted throughout the year, signaling deep-seated weakness in the economy. Tepid consumer spending and low business investment have pushed China into a deflationary environment, which in turn reduces the incentive to borrow by eroding corporate profits and household wages.

Drivers Behind the Credit Contraction

Several factors are contributing to the decline in credit expansion.

Initially, a surge in government bond sales during the first half of last year provided a temporary boost to overall credit growth. However, the impact of this stimulus has since diminished, partly because a higher base of comparison from 2024 has come into effect, pulling down the expansion rate.

Another headwind is the government's campaign to reduce "hidden" or off-balance-sheet debt, an effort that began in late 2024. As part of this initiative, Beijing has instructed local authorities to issue new bonds to replace these hidden liabilities, some of which were held as bank loans.

The Central Bank's Patient Approach

Despite the deteriorating credit data, officials are not expected to intervene aggressively in the short term. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has signaled a tolerance for the slowdown, framing it as part of a patient transition toward new economic growth drivers like advanced technology.

With the central bank taking a secondary role in managing an economy held back by weak demand and structural imbalances, fiscal stimulus is now expected to provide the primary support.

Modest Easing Unlikely to Reverse Trend

Looking ahead, economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate the PBOC will implement modest easing measures in 2026, including policy interest rate cuts totaling 20 basis points.

However, such moves are unlikely to reverse the decline in credit expansion on their own. Without a fundamental turnaround in the demand for financing from companies and individuals, the credit slowdown is poised to continue.

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