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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6827.42
6827.42
6827.42
6899.86
6801.80
-73.58
-1.07%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
48458.04
48458.04
48458.04
48886.86
48334.10
-245.98
-0.51%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23195.16
23195.16
23195.16
23554.89
23094.51
-398.69
-1.69%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
97.950
98.030
97.950
98.500
97.950
-0.370
-0.38%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.17394
1.17409
1.17394
1.17496
1.17192
+0.00011
+ 0.01%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33707
1.33732
1.33707
1.33997
1.33419
-0.00148
-0.11%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4299.39
4299.39
4299.39
4353.41
4257.10
+20.10
+ 0.47%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
57.233
57.485
57.233
58.011
56.969
-0.408
-0.71%
--

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Israel Says It Kills Senior Hamas Commander Raed Saed In Gaza

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Ukraine's Navy Says Russian Drone Attack Hit Civilian Turkish Vessel Carrying Sunflower Oil To Egypt On Saturday

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Israeli Military Says It Put Planned Strike On South Lebanon Site On Hold After Lebanese Army Requested Access

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Norwegian Nobel Committee: Calls On The Belarusian Authorities To Release All Political Prisoners

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Norwegian Nobel Committee: His Freedom Is A Deeply Welcome And Long-Awaited Moment

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Ukraine Says It Received 114 Prisoners From Belarus

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USA Embassy In Lithuania: Maria Kalesnikava Is Not Going To Vilnius

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USA Embassy In Lithuania: Other Prisoners Are Being Sent From Belarus To Ukraine

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Five Ukrainians Released By Belarus In US-Brokered Deal

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USA Vilnius Embassy: USA Stands Ready For "Additional Engagement With Belarus That Advances USA Interests"

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USA Vilnius Embassy: Belarus, USA, Other Citizens Among The Prisoners Released Into Lithuania

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USA Vilnius Embassy: USA Will Continue Diplomatic Efforts To Free The Remaining Political Prisoners In Belarus

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USA Vilnius Embassy: Belarus Releases 123 Prisoners Following Meeting Of President Trump's Envoy Coale And Belarus President Lukashenko

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USA Vilnius Embassy: Masatoshi Nakanishi, Aliaksandr Syrytsa Are Among The Prisoners Released By Belarus

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USA Vilnius Embassy: Maria Kalesnikava And Viktor Babaryka Are Among The Prisoners Released By Belarus

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USA Vilnius Embassy: Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Ales Bialiatski Is Among The Prisoners Released By Belarus

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Belarusian Presidential Administration Telegram Channel: Lukashenko Has Pardoned 123 Prisoners As Part Of Deal With US

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Two Local Syrian Officials: Joint US-Syrian Military Patrol In Central Syria Came Under Fire From Unknown Assailants

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Israeli Military Says It Targeted 'Key Hamas Terrorist' In Gaza City

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Rwanda's Actions In Eastern Drc Are A Clear Violation Of Washington Accords Signed By President Trump - Secretary Of State Rubio

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          Top Silver ETFs for Investors: Maximizing Exposure to Precious Metals

          Glendon

          Economic

          Summary:

          Explore the best silver ETFs of 2024 for diversified investment. From expense ratios to holdings, learn which ETFs offer optimal exposure to silver, ensuring stability and growth potential in volatile markets.

          Silver Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have become increasingly popular for investors aiming to diversify portfolios and hedge against inflation and market volatility. Silver is often considered a “safe haven” asset, similar to gold, with high utility in industries ranging from technology to healthcare. Here, we explore the best silver ETFs for 2024, providing a comparative analysis of their assets, performance, expense ratios, and holdings to help you make an informed investment decision.

          Why Invest in Silver ETFs?

          Silver ETFs offer a simplified way to gain exposure to silver without needing to own physical assets. Silver can act as a defensive investment, historically appreciating during periods of inflation and economic downturn. Moreover, the rise of green energy initiatives, which rely on silver in applications like solar panels and electric vehicles, has further boosted silver's demand, enhancing its long-term growth potential.

          Key Factors to Consider When Choosing a Silver ETF

          Expense Ratio: Lower ratios mean more returns are retained.
          Liquidity: Affects ease of trading, especially for large volume investments.
          Silver Holdings: Some funds hold physical silver, while others track futures or companies in the silver sector.
          Performance History: Previous returns indicate consistency and potential resilience.

          Best Silver ETFs for 2024

          1. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

          Assets Under Management (AUM): Approximately $14 billion
          Expense Ratio: 0.50%
          Holdings: Physical silver
          Overview: SLV is one of the largest and most popular silver ETFs, holding physical silver bars in its trust. Known for its simplicity and high liquidity, SLV provides a direct investment in silver, making it an ideal choice for investors seeking exposure to the precious metal itself. However, the fund’s price performance is closely tied to the spot price of silver, and it does not provide dividends or interest.

          2. Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR)

          AUM: Around $1 billion
          Expense Ratio: 0.30%
          Holdings: Physical silver bullion
          Overview: With a lower expense ratio than SLV, SIVR appeals to cost-conscious investors. This ETF is structured to track the price of silver directly, providing a pure-play on silver prices. Aberdeen’s SIVR also benefits from lower management costs and tends to be a popular option for those prioritizing fee efficiency in precious metal investments.

          3. Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL)

          AUM: Over $1 billion
          Expense Ratio: 0.65%
          Holdings: Equity stakes in silver mining companies
          Overview: Unlike SLV and SIVR, SIL provides exposure to the silver sector by investing in global companies that mine and produce silver. This indirect approach means SIL’s performance can benefit not only from rising silver prices but also from profitable operations within its holdings. However, SIL’s price can also be influenced by equity market conditions, adding an element of stock market risk to this ETF.

          4. ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ)

          AUM: $300 million
          Expense Ratio: 0.95%
          Holdings: Leverage-based silver futures
          Overview: AGQ is designed to offer twice the daily return of silver prices, making it a high-risk, high-reward option for those comfortable with leverage. This ETF can yield significant returns in a silver bull market but is highly volatile and not recommended for long-term holding due to the potential for compounding losses during downturns.

          5. Invesco DB Silver Fund (DBS)

          AUM: $100 million
          Expense Ratio: 0.79%
          Holdings: Silver futures contracts
          Overview: DBS follows the price of silver through futures contracts rather than physical holdings. While it is less liquid than SLV or SIVR, it allows investors to gain exposure to silver’s price movements. However, the reliance on futures contracts may lead to tracking errors, and the fund may be affected by contango, which can erode returns in volatile markets.
          Performance Comparison: Past 12 Months
          In the past year, silver prices have experienced significant fluctuations, driven by inflationary pressures, Federal Reserve rate changes, and global demand for industrial applications. Here’s a quick snapshot of the 12-month performance of some of these ETFs:
          SLV: +7.5%
          SIVR: +7.8%
          SIL: +12.1%
          AGQ: +15.0% (note: significant volatility due to leverage)
          DBS: +6.0%
          These funds’ performance closely mirrors silver prices, with leveraged funds like AGQ showing amplified gains. However, it’s crucial to remember that leveraged ETFs are typically suited for short-term trades rather than buy-and-hold strategies.

          Choosing the Right Silver ETF

          For investors seeking simple, cost-effective exposure to physical silver, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) are leading options, both providing pure silver exposure with low expense ratios. Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) is an excellent choice for those looking to capitalize on silver mining stocks, offering a diversified play on silver production. High-risk investors who want to take advantage of leverage may consider ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) but should proceed with caution.

          Conclusion

          Silver ETFs present an accessible means to include silver in a diversified portfolio, offering investors stability, potential growth, and inflation hedging. Given silver’s industrial applications and demand in green technologies, these ETFs hold promise for both conservative and growth-focused investors.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Alternative Views: A 10% Stake in a Bank Can Mean All or Nothing

          Cohen

          Economic

          It came as a surprise to many when Diona Teh Li Shian announced that her family would reduce its stake in Public Bank Bhd (KL:PBB) to 10% over the next five years. While the timing of the announcement was unexpected, it was a strategic move.

          It effectively answered the question as to how the Teh family would comply with the requirement of the Financial Services Act 2013 (FSA), which has restrictions on the shareholding of family companies and individuals in financial institutions. It also put to rest any speculation over the shareholding of the bank’s largest shareholder.

          Diona’s late father, Tan Sri Teh Hong Piow, had a 23.41% stake in Public Bank that is worth more than RM20 billion. The block of shares is held through Consolidated Teh Holdings Sdn Bhd and the estate of the late Teh.

          Even before Teh passed away, there had always been questions about who would succeed him and what would happen to his block of shares in the bank he founded.

          In fact, since 2013, when the FSA came into effect, Bank Negara Malaysia has made it clear that shareholdings in banks are restricted to 20% for institutions and not more than 10% for individuals.

          The exceptions to the rule are individuals who held more than 10% before the FSA came into effect by virtue of having founded the financial institution. Apart from Teh, the others who fall into this category are Tan Sri Azman Hashim of AMMB Holdings Bhd and the cigar-smoking Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan of Hong Leong Bank Bhd (KL:HLBB).

          The three are known as doyens of the local banking sector who managed to lead their financial institutions through four recessions since the 1980s and one major banking consolidation exercise in 1999/2000.

          They were allowed to hold on to their stakes and given exemptions in what was known as the “grandfather rule”. But the rule applies only to them and not to their children or successors.

          Azman has 11.8% in AmBank while Quek holds 64.5% in Hong Leong Bank through Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd.

          The Teh family’s disclosure could well set the template for the stakes held by Azman and Quek, who have to ensure that their successors comply with the FSA.

          Of the two, AmBank has less of a problem because Azman’s stake is just 1.8% above the 10% threshold. All he needs to do is seek Bank Negara’s approval to maintain the stake at 10% and dispose of the excess. Alternatively, his shares can be a merger block for any suitor.

          As for Quek, the family’s interest can go up to 20% as the stake is held through HLFG, which is an institution. But it is difficult for HLFG to trim its stake in the bank unless there is a merger, to which Hong Leong Bank is no stranger. In 2014, a research report paired Hong Leong Bank with Public Bank on the rationale that the former wanted a bigger platform and the latter could have succession problems.

          Bank Negara’s ‘fit and proper’ test

          Coming back to Public Bank, being able to keep a 10% stake can mean a lot for the Teh family as the bank was founded by their father. And any family member or their representative can seek a board seat provided Bank Negara gives its approval. This can be seen at RHB Bank Bhd where OSK Holdings Bhd has a 10.3% stake and its executive chairman Tan Sri Ong Leong Huat sits on the board.

          A 10% stake in a bank represents more power than it may appear. It can block or facilitate a potential takeover. This is because in a merger exercise between financial institutions, one bank takes over another through the acquisition of assets and liabilities. In reality, there is no such thing as a merger of equals.

          Under the acquisition of assets and liabilities method, the scheme requires 75% shareholder approval and not more than 10% opposing it, which means a 10% block can be an obstacle to a takeover. So while the stake may be small, it is meaningful in a bank, especially if it comes with board representation, which means that the entity and its representative have passed Bank Negara’s “fit and proper” test.

          But that 10% interest can also turn out to be inconsequential.

          Banks are highly regulated and the central bank keeps a close eye on board changes as it does not allow the banks to fail. The rules have become even more stringent after the 1998 Asian currency crisis. To Bank Negara’s credit, it has ensured that the banking system has not been in danger of a systemic risk as a result of the failure of any bank then.

          Since 2000, there have been instances of parties with more than a 10% stake that still had difficulty exerting control over the bank as the shareholder did not pass the “fit and proper” test.

          In 2005, when the UBG Group of Sarawak was a substantial shareholder in RHB Capital Bhd, which then controlled RHB Bank, Datuk Seri Sulaiman Abdul Rahman Abdul Taib had to wait eight months before the central bank gave him the green light to be a board member of RHB Capital. The following year, Sulaiman resigned and UBG subsequently disposed of its stake in the bank.

          In 2007, Hong Kong fund Primus Pacific Partners bought a 20.2% stake in EON Capital Bhd at a premium. Three years later, there was a boardroom battle, with Hong Leong Bank coming in to acquire EON Bank.

          Eventually, Hong Leong Bank took over EON Bank, and approvals from the central bank were relatively faster than normal.

          Aabar Investment PJS held 25% in RHB Capital (then the holding company of RHB Bank) in 2011. The investment arm of the Abu Dhabi government wanted to sell its block of shares. In an unprecedented move, both CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Malayan Banking Bhd received approval from Bank Negara to negotiate with Aabar.

          It was unprecedented as Bank Negara does not allow a bidding war for any bank. The deal was finally called off and Aabar sold off its interest in RHB Bank in 2019.

          In the next five years, the family of the late Teh will dispose of some 13.4% in the bank to employees, directors and shareholders through a restricted offer for sale. It will cause an overhang of Public Bank shares in the short term but will be good for the bank in the longer term.

          Public Bank’s hallmarks are its conservative lending, a strong retail franchise with a good following among small and medium enterprises and a steady group of shareholders with an appetite for consistent dividends. And with the Teh family committed to keeping a 10% stake, the future of the bank remains solid, even if speculation of an eventual merger with another bank is unlikely to go away.

          Source: The edge markets

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          The Cost Of Constructing A Greener Future For The Cement Industry

          ING

          Economic

          Energy

          A much-needed green revolution in cement production

          Cement is an essential material in today's modern world. It builds our homes, offices, bridges, dams, roads and sidewalks. Each year, we churn out over four billion tons of cement globally from around 4,000 plants, leading to 30 billion tons of concrete, its most common application.

          Cement production is, however, a major carbon culprit. It's responsible for 7% of global emissions. If the cement industry were a country, it would rank as the fourth largest emitter, on par with Russia and trailing behind only China, the US, and India.

          Emissions from cement are roughly on par with those from the steel industry. This makes cement and steel the top-polluting industrial sectors. Unlike steel, where technology can fundamentally change the production process and eliminate almost all emissions, cement production is inherently CO2-intensive. The chemical transformation of raw materials into cement emits CO2 and there’s no way around that, with these ‘process emissions’ making up 60% of the total. The remaining 40% comes from the high temperatures required (around 1450°C), which are typically achieved by burning coal or plastic waste.

          So, what can cement companies do to cut emissions, and at what cost? Fortunately, there are solutions. They can capture and store CO2 permanently or switch to more sustainable heating sources. We dive into these business cases in this article.

          According to the International Energy Agency, cement production is set to rise by 17% by 2050 under current policies. Even in their Net Zero Economy scenario, production levels remain close to today’s, highlighting the fact that cement and concrete will continue in their current roles as important building materials.

          In turn, we only explore ways to green the production of cement and concrete in this article. For now, we're not delving into ways of reducing demand for cement, for example by substituting concrete by wood in buildings or to optimise the design of buildings.

          CCS: The importance of Carbon Capture and Storage

          Deploying carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavoidable without the availability of new technologies that can fundamentally change the chemical process of cement making. CCS is therefore an integral part of any decarbonisation scenario for the sector and can be applied to both the process and heating emissions.

          CCS can reduce cement’s emissions by about 85%, based on our assumptions and calculations, which is a big achievement. Additionally, it increases the cost of cement production marginally – by about 10% in our reference case, where CO2 can be transported through pipelines and stored within a 150 km distance. For many cement plants, CCS will be the most impactful and cost effective decarbonisation solution.

          Capturing and storing CO2 emissions, along with using cleaner heating fuels, can significantly reduce emissions, though each comes with different costs

          Indicative emissions and costs of clinker production

          Source: ING Research

          Why CCS won't be a near-term solution for every cement plant

          The cost of carbon capture and storage varies significantly depending on the location of the site, and cement production facilities are often widely dispersed across a country or region.

          For instance, Europe has approximately 300 plants. Some of these are situated near the coast, allowing CO2 to be transported to offshore storage sites via pipelines. Our calculations assume that CO2 can be transported ‘cheaply’. We assume transport via pipelines to an offshore storage location within a maximum distance of 150 kilometres, which is feasible for countries like Norway, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. Currently, CO2 pipelines are being developed in the major industrial clusters in these countries, enabling cement plants in these areas to benefit from lower transportation costs. These sites are likely to be the first to apply CCS technology.

          Many plants are located inland – far from industrial clusters with CO2 pipelines, but near rivers, allowing CO2 to be transported by ships. However, this method is considerably more expensive, especially for distances up to 500 kilometres. These sites can also apply CCS technology once there are ports available where ships can unload their CO2 shipments.

          Additionally, there are cement plants situated deep inland, with no feasible options for CO2 transport via pipelines or ships, even in the future. In such cases, CO2 could be transported by trucks, but this would further increase costs and carbon emissions as it creates many truck movements. CCS won't be applied easily or quickly on these sites.

          All in all, the cost to capture, transport and permanently store a ton of carbon from cement production ranges from 50 euro to 200 euro, depending on site location and the transport mode (low cost for pipelines, high cost for ships).

          Switching heating sources

          Green hydrogen is powerful – but also too costly and precious

          Using hydrogen as a fuel is one way to achieve the high temperatures necessary for cement manufacturing. In theory, green hydrogen could replace coal and waste as a heating source. While this wouldn’t reduce process emissions (CCS is required for this), it would cut cement’s overall emissions by a third since the heating process itself wouldn’t emit CO2.

          However, there are significant drawbacks to using green hydrogen in the cement industry. Currently, it would nearly double the cost of cement production. The technology is still untested, and there isn’t enough green hydrogen available in the foreseeable future to meet the industry’s vast energy demands.

          Moreover, green hydrogen is an extremely valuable resource that could be more effectively used to decarbonise other sectors. In industries like steelmaking, shipping, and aviation, green hydrogen has the potential to transform carbon-intensive processes into fossil-free operations. For example, it can be used to produce synthetic fuels for ships, aeroplanes and trucks, or to eliminate coal in steel production.

          These applications of green hydrogen are far more transformative than merely replacing a fossil fuel while leaving the cement-making process unchanged. Other industries are likely to pay higher prices for green hydrogen as a result. We therefore believe that hydrogen will progress quicker in other energy intensive sectors.

          Small steps, big impact; marginal improvements matter

          So far, we’ve explored the most radical solutions to reduce emissions. Fortunately, there are also smaller, incremental steps that can make a difference. While these measures may not cut emissions by tens of percentage points at each plant, their widespread application across all plants can significantly impact the sector’s total emissions. Sure, they do not eliminate the need to capture and store carbon – but they do limit the extent to which CCS would be needed.

          Improving energy efficiency

          The process of making cement is almost unchanged from when it was first developed, except for increased energy efficiency. Traditional cement kilns have already achieved more than 60% energy efficiency and are unlikely to make significant upgrades, but on a plant level there might be room for improvement. Larger gains can be made by using the residual heat in other industrial processes, or to heat houses by building heating grids.

          Using less clinker

          Portland cement is the most used cement and has a clinker content of 95%. Clinker can be partially replaced by supplementary cementitious materials, like fly ash from coal power plants and blast furnace slag from steelmaking. This substitution reduces the clinker ratio, cutting down on energy use and avoiding some of the emissions inherent to clinker production. However, as the power and steel sectors in Europe move away from coal, these alternative feedstocks will become less readily available.

          Co-processing biomass

          Coal products and waste are the most common fuels for generating process heat in cement production. Biomass can also be used for co-firing, although fully substituting it is technically challenging due to the lower caloric value of most organic materials. Sustainably sourced biomass is considered a zero-emission fuel under current guidelines, thereby reducing the carbon footprint of cement. But here too, as with green hydrogen, biomass can add more value in greening other energy-intensive sectors. So, as we move towards a net-zero economy, we expect its use in the cement industry to be constrained by high demand in other sectors.

          Applying circular economy principles

          Adopting circular economy principles can significantly reduce the demand for cement. This includes optimising structural designs to use less concrete, creating infrastructure that can be easily disassembled for reuse and recycling, and substituting concrete with zero-CO2 materials like wood. An important and interesting topic – but one that we won’t dive into in this article due to its focus on greening cement production.

          Greening concrete – turning cement into a carbon sink

          While cement’s chemical reaction inherently produces CO2, the same reaction can also be used in reverse order to store CO2 in concrete, the main end product of cement. CO2 injection during concrete production involves introducing captured CO2 into the concrete mix. This chemical process permanently embeds CO2 in the concrete.

          Companies like CarbonCure are able to store up to 18 kilograms of CO2 per cubic meter of concrete. This is still a tiny fraction of the 350 kilograms of CO2 that comes with the use of unabated cement in concrete (depending on the type of cement and mixture of concrete, emissions range from 250 to 400 kilograms). But this figure drops to about 50 kilograms of CO2 if the CO2 is captured and stored during cement production.

          So, CO2 injection in concrete, together with CCS in cement production, could provide novel solutions and the possibility of carbon neutral cement and concrete in the future. The remaining emissions can be offset in voluntary carbon markets (32 kilograms of CO2 per ton of concrete in our example).

          Strategies towards carbon neutral concrete

          Indicative impact of CO2 reduction measures in kilograms CO2 per ton concrete

          Source: ING Research

          The cement industry has a long way to go to achieve carbon neutrality, and both CO2 injection and CCS face significant challenges. These technologies are still in their infancy and come with high costs – that is, if they are available at all.

          Innovation in the cement supply chain and further research are crucial to ensure that CO2-injected concrete meets local building codes and standards. Pilot projects can help build the business case for carbon-neutral concrete, making it scalable and cost-effective. Currently, demand isn’t the issue; leading developers and investors are willing to make net zero buildings and pay a premium for it, especially in the high end markets. And policymakers need to meet their emission targets, of which cement takes a fair chunk. This puts pressure on cement producers and policymakers to green the industry site by site.

          Appendix: cement’s tech explainer by an economist

          The production of cement begins with preparation of the raw materials – limestone, gravel and clay, where they are grinded into fine powder. Cement clinker is then produced by adding the prepared limestone into a cement kiln at a temperature around 1450 degrees Celsius. This allows for the calcination of limestone into cement and CO2. The CO2 is either emitted into the atmosphere or captured and permanently stored with CCS.

          Cement production with and without CCS

          Source: ING Research

          Economic assumptions explained

          Costs are calculated from a Northwestern European perspective and based on many economic and chemical assumptions. We list our main economic assumptions here: a gas price of €35/MWh, a power price of €85/MWh, a carbon price of €65/ton with full carbon pricing (no free allowances), and a coal price of €110/ton.

          We have applied technology costs of €21/ton/year for a cement kiln that runs 95% of the time (capacity factor). CO2 is captured and transported through pipelines over 150 kilometres to be permanently stored in an offshore empty oil or gas field. We’ve assumed the total cost to capture, transport and store CO2 of €100/ton and the CCS capture rate is set at 85%.

          We apply a Western-made alkaline electrolyser that costs around 1,000€/kW and runs with an efficiency of 70% and capacity rate of 70%. This results in green hydrogen costs around €5/kg at a power prices of €85/MWh.

          In practice, all these input variables show considerable variation which yields a wide range of outcomes for every technology. We have chosen to present point estimates as they often capture the main insights better than wide ranges. Treat these numbers as indicative outcomes around which real time projects will vary.

          This note is part of an ongoing series based around the greening of hard-to-abate sectors. Please find our other updates on the steel, plastics, aviation and shipping industries here.

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          The 'irresistible' Real Estate Bet Gripping Investors

          Owen Li

          Economic

          There’s a niche corner of dealmaking that’s quietly making inroads in the battered market for commercial real estate.

          It involves buying buildings with big carbon footprints and investing in green refurbishments. Asset managers Bloomberg interviewed spoke of doubling their clients’ money in just a few years by renovating older buildings, adding 20% to rents and then cashing in on gains when they sell.

          As a model for real estate investing, it’s simply “irresistible,” says Paul White, who runs a specialized fund for Hines, a Houston-based developer with more than US$90 billion of assets.

          Many investors Bloomberg interviewed said they plan to rely heavily on debt markets to amplify their financial clout, raising the stakes of such wagers. And analysts monitoring the market warn of rising capital expenditure, as well as a lack of skilled labour that could fan wage growth and significantly drive up renovation costs.

          Yet speculation on green refurbishments represents a sliver of optimism in a market that not long ago was pummeled by a post-pandemic spike in interest rates and volatile occupancy levels. MSCI Inc said its indexes show that commercial property prices fell about 14% in Europe between March 2020 and June 2024.

          Now, a new wave of environmental regulations and tenant preferences has a growing number of CRE fund managers looking to monetize the moment.

          Europe’s revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive went into force this year, and landlords have until the end of this decade to slash greenhouse gas emissions by at least 60% from 2015 levels. Owners of older buildings risk significant writedowns, with lawyers who advise the industry warning of “huge” refurbishment costs ahead.

          Landlords that wait too long face a bigger bill further down the road, according to Sven Bienert, project lead at Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor, which helps the real estate sector tackle emissions. He also says a lot of banks still haven’t grasped just how fast the collateral value of their CRE loans might be shrinking. It’s a “significant risk” on banks’ balance sheets, Bienert said.

          There’s evidence that some landlords would rather keep their heads in the sand than realize losses at the point of sale. They’re “disinclined to sell and crystallize the loss,” according to White, who says that’s why Hines hasn’t managed to buy as many properties as it would like. In the end, though, landlords will “have to accept the reality of new regulations,” he said.

          For now, flipping brown buildings to make them greener remains a niche undertaking mostly limited to investment managers willing to speculate on the risks. Asset managers creating funds that target the greening of commercial property include billionaire Tom Steyer’s Galvanize Climate Solutions, Fidelity International, Schroders Plc and Ardian SAS.

          The stakes are high, with huge swathes of property in the crosshairs. In Europe, as much as 80% of the office market was built more than a decade ago, leaving it outdated and in need of green refurbishment, according to an analysis by Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.

          A study published by Deepki, a sustainability-data provider for real estate owners and investors, found that over half of European CRE managers are now sitting on stranded assets equivalent to at least 30% of their portfolios because they don’t meet new green standards.

          At the same time, there’s evidence that a growing number are keen to invest in flipping brown buildings into green real estate. Of CRE managers surveyed, 87% “plan to increase the purchase of poor energy-performing buildings with a view to retrofitting them,” Deepki said in the study.

          Schroders manages a £460 million (US$600 million) investment trust that’s focused on improving the sustainability of about 40 UK commercial properties. The asset manager recently turned a Manchester warehouse into an operationally net-zero-carbon building, allowing it to charge up to 40% more in rents than older properties on the same estate. Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust says it’s now eyeing rental premiums as high as 30% across the portfolio.

          Coima, an Italian asset manager, plans to raise €500 million (US$540 million) for a fund it says will buy, renovate, rent and sell office and residential buildings in Rome and Milan. Fidelity International has a pair of funds targeting office and logistic buildings. Its investment committee initially balked at the high cost of buying and renovating a London office building, but gave the go-ahead when Fidelity negotiated a good price.

          Institutional investors are taking note. White says Hines has attracted 35 pension funds and other investors for its €1.6 billion fund dedicated to flipping brown properties into green assets. By the time Hines closes the fund in 2030, the firm expects to have turned that €1.6 billion into at least €4 billion, he said.

          “We usually sell pretty quick,” White said. “We can flip a building in three to four years.”

          Banks, meanwhile, may not be reflecting the risks of brown real-estate loans on their books.

          Priscilla Le Priellec, head of real estate, structured and development lending at La Banque Postale, says her team has rejected loans on environmental grounds only to see the business get absorbed by competitors.

          “It’s quite questionable,” she said in an interview.

          But ignoring climate risk is likely to come with a sting, especially as insurers retreat from properties found to be unprepared, she said. “You have to make sure that your assets can be insured.”

          BNP Paribas SA, the European Union’s largest bank by assets, sold a building in Madrid three years ago for €59 million, a 40% discount at the time relative to comparable grade-A assets in the area. The property is now the subject of a brown-to-green refurbishment project by French private equity firm Ardian.

          Edmund Eggins, managing director for real estate at Ardian, says that as an asset, the building was on track to “become stranded by 2030.”

          A spokesperson for BNP Paribas declined to comment.

          Flipping the property, known locally as Faro, entails rebuilding the entire single-glazed facade, as well as replacing all the air-conditioning and ventilation. New plumbing will cut water use, while solar panels will generate clean electricity and heat. Eventually, a cluster of 900 hidden sensors will constantly monitor and adjust building performance to ensure emissions stay low.

          The expected cost is €30 million, or roughly half the purchase price, Eggins says. Ardian, which has so far completed 70% of the work, plans to finish the project by the end of this year, after which it’s aiming for rents between 10% and 20% above the average in the building’s local area.

          The goal is to make Faro “the first zero-carbon building in Spain,” Eggins said.

          Spencer Corkin, head of value-add strategy at real estate manager AEW in Europe, says that “inefficient or non-compliant assets are at risk of becoming functionally obsolete and illiquid.”

          The flipside, according to White at Hines, is that those who invest now stand to ride a sustained wave of growth.

          “It is inevitable that the demand for sustainable real estate space will prevail,” he said.

          Source: The edge markets

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Why is Housing Supply Still so Low?

          JPMorgan

          Economic

          Housing inventories remain near record lows, yet builders are not increasing construction volumes enough to sufficiently meet demand. Why aren't builders ramping up activity? Several factors are keeping housing supply limited:

          Chronic underbuilding post-2008:

          Following the housing crisis of 2008, the U.S. experienced a period of chronic home underbuilding. The number of residential construction firms fell from 98,067 in 2007 to 48,557 in 2012, representing a 50% decline. It took a while for the industry to recover, with single-family housing starts finally returning to pre-GFC levels in 2020.

          Elevated mortgage rates:

          The housing market cratered in late 2022 due to the Fed's rate hikes, resulting in a 16% y/y drop in existing home sales. Although sales are now slightly below long-term average levels, elevated mortgage rates and home prices continue to dampen sentiment. In October, the housing market index increased by 2pts to 43, yet it remains below the neutral mark of 50. The Fed's rate cutting cycle should help lower mortgage rates over time, but it is more impactful for short rates. Long rates, which inform 30-year fixed mortgage rates, typically move according to growth and inflation levels, so these may take longer to decline.

          High costs for builders and homeowners:

          Since the pandemic, a tornado of factors has pushed up costs for homebuilders and homeowners. These include higher material costs, zoning laws and labor shortages, which have led to higher home prices as well as maintenance and insurance costs for buyers. Inputs for residential construction, as measured by the PPI, rose 14.6% y/y in 2021 and 15.0% in 2022. Although prices grew more moderately in 2023, the rapid increase after the pandemic has made building homes less affordable. The construction industry also faces persistent labor shortages. Total job openings have fallen by 14% over the past year, but construction job openings have declined by only 4%. Due to these factors, home prices are up 30% and are 20% more expensive to insure since 2020. At the national level, builders are still hesitant to invest in new units due to concerns there aren’t enough buyers that can afford them.
          Despite these challenges, there is potential for improvement. In fact, building activity has already increased significantly in some cities, particularly along the Sunbelt. For other areas, lower rates should spur more housing demand, which could boost builder confidence to increase construction volumes. Additionally, zoning reform efforts are taking place in more than 100 municipalities across the U.S., which could help reduce costs for builders1. While it will take time for supply to meet demand, the recent improvement in homebuilding activity is expected to continue.Why is Housing Supply Still so Low?_1
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Companies May Issue $1.5 Trillion of US Bonds in 2025

          Goldman Sachs

          Bond

          Economic

          Corporations have issued more than $1.4 trillion of investment-grade US bonds and have broken four monthly issuance records in 2024, putting them on track for the second-busiest year ever. Company bond sales are also expected to surge in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets.
          Companies May Issue $1.5 Trillion of US Bonds in 2025_1
          There are several reasons corporate debt offerings have been so plentiful. Many corporate treasurers and CFOs took care of their financing early this year to avoid the risk of a spike in volatility around the time of the US election, says John Sales, head of Investment Grade Syndicate in the Americas in Global Banking & Markets. At the same time, “funding conditions for the vast majority of this year have been about as good as you could ask for,” he says.
          Companies May Issue $1.5 Trillion of US Bonds in 2025_2
          There are signs that the momentum in bond offerings will continue. Between the annual need to refinance more than a trillion dollars of maturing debt and an increase in financing amid solid economic growth, Sales says it’s reasonable to expect borrowers to issue $1.5 trillion or more of corporate bonds in 2025 and potentially in coming years. “If the economy is growing, if companies are growing, if balance sheets are growing, you will see debt to finance that growth,” he says.

          Valuations and yields have boosted corporate bond issuance

          For corporate borrowers, the extra yield (or spread) they pay relative to Treasury bonds has seldom been lower. For much of 2024, investment-grade corporate bond spreads have been less than 100 basis points, according to the Bloomberg US Aggregate Corporate Index. That index hit 79 basis points the week of October 18, marking the tightest level since March 2005.
          Companies May Issue $1.5 Trillion of US Bonds in 2025_3
          “These are the best spread levels our issuers have seen in the last 20 years,” Sales says. The only comparable spreads came in the summer of 2021, when market volatility had evaporated and the Federal Reserve’s policy rate was near zero. “That's a big reason why folks are jumping to lock in the current rates,” he adds.
          Bond yields may be converging toward the long-term interest rate targeted by policymakers, known as the Fed’s terminal rate. Sales says his team expects the terminal rate to be around 3.5%. Ten-year US Treasury yields have already fallen to 4% or even lower. Taken together, with bond yields not far from the expected terminal rate, and spreads hovering around 20-year lows, “conditions are about as good as they’ve ever been, Sales says.

          M&A activity has propelled bond issuance

          Mergers and acquisitions in a range of industries have also propelled the supply of bonds.
          US investment-grade bond sales linked to corporate acquisitions are on track for their highest volume since 2019. Those transactions have been boosted by deals in the energy, healthcare, and consumer sectors, Sales says. “We've seen a lot of investment-grade supply to fund M&A,” he says. “That's a theme that we expect will continue into 2025 as M&A remains a top capital allocation priority for most of our large cap clients.”
          Companies May Issue $1.5 Trillion of US Bonds in 2025_4
          Issuance from utility companies has also surged amid capital expenditures to support power demand from data centers and electrification. Offerings from that sector have risen 18% this year compared with the same period in 2023 (as of October 10). “There's no question that we’ve seen a huge uptick in capex from the utility sector, and a big way in which the utility sector will fund that capex is through debt issuance, Sales says.”

          Money may flow from short-term debt to longer-term bonds

          As the Fed lowers interest rates, reducing the yields on shorter-maturity debt, money is poised to flow increasingly into longer maturity investment-grade bonds, Sales says. Many investors have been able to buy short-term Treasury bills yielding more than 5%, but that yield is falling.
          “I would expect that money will migrate away from high yielding T-Bills and into the investment-grade asset class,” Sales says. “That's something we are in the early stages of now, and that's a theme we expect will continue over the next handful of months and quarters as the Fed continues the cutting cycle.”
          When it comes to the economy, investors’ focus has moved from inflation, which is cooling, to the outlook for growth. Economists in Goldman Sachs Research recently lowered their probability forecast for a US recession in the next 12 months to 15%.

          US GDP growth is supporting corporate bonds

          And as rates fall, investors are snapping up debt with higher yields, or coupons. “If the Fed is going to be cutting, if we've hit a ceiling in terms of interest rates, investors want to lock in coupons for as long as they can,” Sales says. “Demand in the long end of our investment-grade market has been as strong as we've seen at any point over the last handful of years.”
          Put another way, growth is a primary reason the $1.4 trillion of corporate bonds sales outpaced expectations this year. “What you are seeing, plain and simple, is growth,” he says. “You're seeing growth in the economy. You're seeing growth in corporate America. You're seeing growth of the balance sheet. And as companies grow, they issue debt to finance that growth.”
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          US Extends 25% Semiconductor Tax Credit to Chip and Solar Wafers

          Alex

          Economic

          The Biden administration finalised rules for a 25% tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing projects, expanding eligibility for what is likely to be the largest incentive programme from the 2022 Chips and Science Act.

          The new regulations, which come more than a year after the initial proposed rules, mean that a wider swath of companies will be able to get the tax breaks. That includes businesses that produce the wafers that are ultimately turned into semiconductors, as well as manufacturers of chips and chipmaking equipment.

          The credits also will apply to solar wafers — an unexpected shift that could help spur domestic production of panel components. So far, the US has struggled to foster manufacturing of those parts, despite a surge of investment in US panel-making factories.

          But the benefits don’t extend all the way up the supply chain. Still excluded are facilities that produce underlying materials like polysilicon, which is used to make wafers. That approach is consistent with how the original law was written, a Treasury official said.

          The tax refunds are one of three main subsidy streams available from the Chips Act, which aims to revitalise the American semiconductor industry after decades of production shifting abroad. The law also set aside US$39 billion (RM168.6 billion) in grant funding — more than 90% of which has been allocated, though not yet spent — and US$75 billion in loans and loan guarantees, of which officials are likely to use less than half.

          The latter two incentive categories have garnered the most attention — President Joe Biden has even visited factories to herald the announcements — but it’s the tax credits that could be most meaningful for companies. Proposed grants typically cover 10% to 15% of project costs, compared with 25% for tax credits. The idea is to make it just as cost-effective to build a factory in the US as in Asia.

          “Our goal is to give you the minimum amount of money necessary to get you to expand on our shores in a way that advances our economic and national security objectives,” Mike Schmidt, director of the Commerce Department’s chips office, said in an August interview when asked about tax credits. “That means looking at all sources of funding and then figuring out how our funds get you over that hump.”

          Some companies argued in negotiations that the tax credits shouldn’t “count against” their other funding, Schmidt said — a line of reasoning that didn’t sway government officials.

          Chip companies have announced more than US$400 billion in planned US investment over the past several years, including massive factories from leading-edge manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co and Intel Corp. There also are efforts underway to make older-generation processors and other supplies.

          The surge in activity likely means that the Chips Act will be more expensive than anticipated.

          The Congressional Budget Office originally estimated that the tax credits would cost US$24 billion in forgone revenue. But the true number could be more than US$85 billion, according to a June report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics that used “very conservative assumptions based on the current investment trends.”

          That would exceed the original projected cost of the entire Chips Act, the report said, “resulting in a total cost overrun of nearly 80%.”

          Asked whether the Treasury Department has its own cost estimate for the tax credit, an official didn’t provide a specific number. But any overrun could be seen as a win by the Biden administration since it represents additional investments in American manufacturing.

          In almost every case, tax credits will account for the greatest share of Chips Act incentives going to any one company. Micron Technology Inc, for example, expects to get around US$11.3 billion in tax credits for two chip factories in New York. That’s compared with US$6.1 billion in grants and US$7.5 billion in loans to support those two facilities plus another plant in Idaho.

          Texas Instruments Inc anticipates US$6 billion to US$8 billion in tax credits — as much as five times the size of its Chips Act grant.

          Tax credits could also go to the many companies that didn’t win grant money — like Applied Materials Inc — but are still building factories for chips, equipment or wafers. Businesses can get refunds for construction that starts by the end of 2026 and is continuous after that point.

          Michigan politicians lobbied hard to extend the tax credit to polysilicon makers as well — in particular, locally based Hemlock Semiconductor LLC. But the Chips Act limited the tax credit to property “integral” to semiconductor production, and Treasury determined that wafers — but not materials — fit that definition.

          Hemlock is getting a grant, however. On Monday, the company struck a preliminary agreement for a US$325 million award, which covers a higher share of its project costs than most other Chips Act outlays.

          Source: The edge markets

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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