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Even as a U.S.–China trade truce appears to be holding, analysts caution that the détente remains fragile in a rivalry increasingly defined by strategic competition.
Even as a U.S.–China trade truce appears to be holding, analysts caution that the détente remains fragile in a rivalry increasingly defined by strategic competition.
A flurry of decisions, outlined in the sweeping trade deal struck by U.S. President Donald Trump with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month, took effect on Monday, with rollbacks of steep tariffs and export controls.
The U.S. halved fentanyl-linked tariffs on imports from China to 10% and extended for a year a truce that lowered the reciprocal tariff rate from 34% to 10%.
In return, China's Ministry of Commerce rolled back several export restrictions on critical minerals and rare earth materials to the U.S. on Monday. Those curbs, first imposed on Oct. 9, had targeted materials vital for military hardware, semiconductors, and other high-tech industries.
Beijing also reversed retaliatory limits on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and other so-called super-hard materials such as synthetic diamonds and boron nitrides. Those measures, introduced in December 2024, were widely seen as a response to Washington's expanded semiconductor export restrictions on China.
Still, Morgan Stanley economists said that Beijing has not unwound the export-control framework it introduced in April – likely to maintain a "calibrated choke-point" meant to preserve leverage.
Given the persisting strategic rivalry, "we view rolling negotiations, episodic flare-ups, and policy asymmetry as the new equilibrium," the economists said.
China is also reportedly developing a so-called "validated end-user" system, or VEU, to block rare earth exports to companies with ties to the U.S. military, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.
The system, if strictly implemented, could make it more difficult for automotive and aerospace companies with both civilian and defense clients to import certain Chinese materials, the Journal reported.
Beijing on Monday added 13 fentanyl precursors to its export control list, requiring a license for shipments to the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
The Ministry of Commerce also suspended sanctions against five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of South Korea's shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean for a year, while the Ministry of Transport paused measures targeting the U.S. shipping sector, including port fees. The U.S. Trade Representative said Sunday it would suspend its own measures for one year.
As part of the bilateral agreement, the White House said China agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of this year and 25 million annually over the next three years. Beijing, which has not confirmed those numbers, appeared to have resumed soybean purchases from the U.S. recently, according to Reuters, after shunning them for most parts of this year.
"These steps suggest 'so far, so good,' but in reality, this is just the beginning," said Wendy Cutler, senior vice president at Asia Society Policy Institute. While there were incentives for both sides to keep the truce in place, such "de-escalatory moves tend to be short-lived," she added.
China's economy, weighed down by the prolonged trade war with Washington, grew 4.8% in the third quarter — its slowest in a year and down from 5.2% in the second quarter.
In a notice Monday, China's State Council announced 13 measures to promote private investment in several major state-dominated industries.
China's push for self-reliance amid "fierce international competition" at last month's top economic plenum was a sign that the leadership is linking growth goals more closely to strategic competition with the U.S., said Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society.
"Beijing is not chasing a grand bargain [but] seeking a truce to buy time and build leverage," Thomas added. He added that while Washington and Beijing both prioritize self-reliance over interdependence, Xi is betting that his strategic resolve will outlast Trump's.

The Senate Agriculture Committee has released a draft of its portion of a much-awaited digital assets market structure bill — a critical step toward accelerating institutional and retail adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Unveiled on Monday by Agriculture Chair John Boozman, R-Ark., and Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., the bipartisan discussion draft lays the groundwork for creating guardrails for the crypto industry in the U.S. It also establishes guidelines for institutions that want to work with digital assets, from bitcoin and ether to tokenized financial instruments.
"This is the most consequential roadmap for how an institution is going to integrate digital assets into their business," Cody Carbone, CEO of crypto trade association Digital Chamber, told CNBC. "It's like the best possible step-by-step of what type of compliance rules requirements they would need to follow to work with crypto."Here are five key takeaways from the discussion draft.
The text classifies some of the largest digital assets by market capitalization such as bitcoin and ether as "digital commodities," placing them under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's purview.
This provision removes a major blocker to digital asset adoption for institutional fiduciaries, Juan Leon, an analyst at crypto-focused asset manager Bitwise, told CNBC.
"Compliance and risk departments will finally have a federal statute to point to," Leon said. "This shifts the internal conversation … [and] it provides the legal certainty required to move assets into a formal, strategic allocation."
It will also create "a starkly bifurcated market" consisting of regulated and unregulated tokens, with the former class of assets seeing "a massive influx of institutional capital, deep liquidity and a robust derivatives ecosystem."
The draft calls for crypto companies to "establish governance, personnel, and financial resource separation among affiliated entities that perform distinct regulated functions."
Bitwise's Leon interprets the provision as a challenge to the "all-in-one" business model that is common among crypto exchanges. According to those models, an exchange, broker, custodian, and proprietary trading desk are all wrapped up into one entity.
In other words, digital asset firms could be required to keep their various businesses separated like traditional financial companies, according to Leon. The change would serve as "a foundational pillar for institutional adoption."
The text gives more power to the CFTC, empowering it to work in tandem with the Securities and Exchange Commission to issue joint rulemaking on crypto-related matters.
"There's a lot more power or authority delegated to the CFTC to have jurisdiction over this industry," Carbone said.
The shift comes after the SEC for years served as the main regulator of digital assets, after it edged out the CFTC to gain authority over the industry.
The draft calls for regulated entities to pay fees to the CFTC. Those fees would go toward registering digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers, in addition to conducting oversight of regulated entities and carrying out education and outreach.
The text calls for crypto exchanges to only permit trading of digital commodities that are "not readily susceptible to manipulation."
It's a provision that could reduce the number of "rug pulls" and other scams that are still common in some parts of the crypto industry, with the goal of establishing standards and building confidence in the market.
The Senate Agriculture Committee's discussion draft is far from final, but it does offer critical insights into the direction of efforts to pass crypto-friendly regulations in the U.S., according to Carbone.
"It's not final, it's not done, but this gives a good sense of where Congress is going and what the final rules may be," Carbone said.
The committee will likely spend the next few weeks getting feedback on their draft, meaning it may be "almost impossible to get [a final version of this part of the bill] done by the end of the year," he added.
However, that period will give lawmakers time to offer more concrete guidance on several issues that are bracketed – or not yet finalized – in the discussion draft. Those include provisions on anti-money laundering rules and regulations specific to decentralized finance players.
Several crypto players plan to work in tandem with lawmakers to help iron out those details, among others.
"We've long said crypto is a bipartisan issue, and this draft from Chairman Boozman and Senator Booker reflects that," Moonpay President Keith Grossman told CNBC. "It's critical that legislation distinguishes between centralized intermediaries and decentralized systems, and we look forward to working with the Committee to get it right."
The discussion draft is only one piece of larger legislative efforts to overhaul regulations for the crypto industry, according to Carbone. Ultimately, the text will be combined with the Senate Banking Committee's draft on the digital assets market structure in a bid to create one comprehensive bill.
And although lawmakers are nowhere near the finish line in that process, crypto firms are finding other ways to work with regulators and other authorities to meaningfully advance their industry, Grayscale Investments Chief Legal Officer Craig Salm told CNBC.
"In the absence of comprehensive legislation, we've still seen meaningful progress on the regulatory front," Salm said, adding that the SEC, Internal Revenue Service and Treasury Department have recently provided guidance around staking in crypto exchange-traded products. "That said, thoughtful legislation will be critical to solidifying the foundation of the digital asset industry in the U.S. and unlocking even greater value for investors and consumers."
Saudi Arabia is expected to host a U.S.-Saudi investment summit in Washington on November 19 during a visit by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to a source familiar with the planning.
Bin Salman will be in Washington to meet with President Donald Trump at the White House on November 18, a White House official said last week.
The summit will be held on the sidelines of bin Salman's visit and not be a part of his official schedule, the source said, declining to be identified because the event is not yet public.
Trump and Bin Salman may drop in, but their participation was not currently part of the program, the source added.
News of the summit was first reported by CBS News, which, citing an invitation, reported that the event would be held at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and co-hosted by the Ministry of Investment of Saudi Arabia and the U.S.-Saudi Business Council.

Bin Salman will visit Washington as Trump pushes Saudi Arabia to join the list of nations that have joined the Abraham Accords normalizing relations between Israel and Muslim-majority nations.
Saudi Arabia is one of the largest customers for U.S. arms, and Trump and bin Salman may also discuss a U.S.-Saudi defense agreement. The Financial Times reported last month that there were hopes the two countries could sign such an agreement during bin Salman's visit.
Australia's spy chief has accused hackers working for China's government of probing his nation's communications and infrastructure networks.
In a speech to a financial regulation conference on Wednesday in Melbourne, Mike Burgess, director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, said while the US has been the main target, the scope of Chinese state-linked actors has widened.
"We have seen Chinese hackers probing our critical infrastructure," he said, referring to the Volt Typhoon group. The same hackers "compromised American critical infrastructure networks to pre-position for sabotage," Burgess said.
Another group of state-sponsored Chinese hackers, Salt Typhoon, has been probing telecommunications networks in Australia and has penetrated networks in the US for espionage purposes, he said.
Australia's spy chief said cyber-enabled espionage is appealing to foreign intelligence agencies because it's low-cost and potentially high-impact, as well as being deniable and scalable. The Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon hacking groups work for Chinese government intelligence and the military, Burgess said.
"Once access is gained — the network is penetrated — what happens next is a matter of intent not capability," he said. "I do not think we – and I mean all of us – truly appreciate how disruptive, how devastating, this could be."
Australian and other allied intelligence services warned early in 2024 that Volt Typhoon had been inside some critical industry networks for years. The Chinese government has consistently denied that it is involved in hacking or cyber espionage.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to a request for comment sent outside normal working hours.
Burgess also referenced Australia's 2018 decision to exclude Chinese firms from building the nation's 5G network.
He said the telecommunications network was "at the top of the nation's most critical infrastructure list," which prompted the government to exclude "high-risk" vendors such as Huawei Technologies Co., a move that was later followed by a number of other countries across the world.
SoftBank Group shares fell over 7% Wednesday after the company said it sold its entire stake in U.S. chipmaker Nvidia for $5.83 billion, as the Japanese giant looks to capitalize on its "all in" bet on ChatGPT maker OpenAI.
In its earnings report, SoftBank said it sold 32.1 million Nvidia shares in October, and also trimmed its T-Mobile position, raising $9.17 billion.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Wednesday, after Wall Street traded mixed on hopes that the record-setting U.S. government shutdown could be nearing an end and AI trade stumbling.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.26%, while the Topix added 0.35%. South Korea's Kospi was flat, while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.62%.
Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index pointed to a slightly higher open, trading at 26,865, against the index's previous close of 26,696.41.
Investors will be keeping a close eye on SoftBank shares as well as tech stocks in Asia after the Japanese giant said Tuesday it sold its entire stake in U.S. chipmaker Nvidia for $5.83 billion, as it looks to capitalize on its "all in" bet on ChatGPT maker OpenAI.
Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to a fresh closing record Tuesday, while the Nasdaq Composite struggled as investors moved money away from technology stocks into other parts of the market that traded at lower valuations.
The 30-stock Dow rose 559.33 points, or 1.18%, to close at 47,927.96, with those on Wall Street buying up shares of various blue-chip names, including health care giants Merck, Amgen and Johnson & Johnson. The S&P 500 also rose 0.21% to finish at 6,846.61. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.25% to settle at 23,468.30.
Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles rose 23% in October to 1.9 million units, driven by strong demand across major markets, market research firm Rho Motion said on Wednesday.
Europe led regional electric vehicle growth with strong demand in Germany, France and the UK, while overall sales eased after a peak month and the European Union approved more battery projects.
China is the world's biggest car market and accounts for more than half of global EV sales, which in Rho Motion's data include battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.
The price parity between electric and ICE vehicles in China is a lot closer when compared with the European or the North American markets, Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said.
North America was a drag on monthly figures, with EV sales down 41% following record highs in August and September, as demand eased after a $7,500 tax credit expired, Lester added.
Battery-electric vehicles remain much pricier than comparable internal combustion models in the U.S., contributing to steep October sales declines across major automakers.
Global sales of battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids rose 23% to 1.9 million units in October, Rho Motion data showed.
Chinese sales rose to about 1.3 million vehicles. European sales jumped 36% to 372,786 units, while North American sales dropped 41% to 100,370. Sales in the rest of the world jumped 37% to 141,368 vehicles.

"In Europe, the overall year-to-date growth figure remains relatively high and we're expecting strong sales towards the end of the year," Lester said.
"Chinese automotive market is expected to show strong growth in November and December, helped by pull forward effect as the country is moving from a full purchase tax exemption to just a 50% exemption on NEVs," he said.
A US aircraft carrier strike group arrived in Latin America, the Pentagon said, adding to a military buildup in the region that the Trump administration says is aimed at narco-traffickers but has also prompted questions about possible attacks on Venezuela.
The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, arrived in the US Southern Command area of operation on Tuesday, the Pentagon said. It carries 4,000 sailors as well as fighter squadrons of F/A-18 Super Hornets, and was joined by guided-missile destroyers and a missile-defense command ship, the USS Winston S. Churchill.
The Pentagon didn't say exactly where the strike group had deployed to, but the Southern Command's area of operation includes the Caribbean Sea. The US has deployed several other ships to the region and successive military strikes have killed dozens of alleged narco-terrorists.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the naval strike group to Latin America in October to "detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities that compromise the safety and prosperity of the United States homeland and our security in the Western Hemisphere," Sean Parnell, chief Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement.
"These forces will enhance and augment existing capabilities to disrupt narcotics trafficking and degrade and dismantle Transnational Criminal Organizations," he added.
The sheer size of the military buildup has fed speculation that the administration may also be planning to target the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. In October, President Donald Trump confirmed he had authorized covert Central Intelligence Agency operations in Venezuela and later said the US military campaign would expand to include targets on land.
That would be a major escalation in the clash with Maduro who has accused Washington of plotting to oust his government.
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