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Source: Reuters

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Following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, analysts and officials have raised alarms, suggesting the operation gives Moscow and Beijing a green light for similar missions in Ukraine and Taiwan.

The logic seems straightforward: The U.S. doesn't recognize Maduro, just as Russia and China don't recognize the independence of Ukraine and Taiwan. If Russia were to seize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky or China were to capture Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, how could Washington object?

This comparison, however, is built on a fundamental misunderstanding of modern warfare. It overlooks the immense gap in military capability that separates the United States from its rivals.

A Deceptively Simple Operation Sparks Flawed Comparisons

To the untrained eye, the U.S. operation to capture Maduro looked almost effortless. Helicopters arrived, secured the target, and left. The apparent ease of the mission has even fueled speculation that Maduro was simply handed over in a backroom deal.

This perception feeds a common narrative: that other countries are constrained by international norms, while a uniquely unrestrained United States under President Donald Trump simply does as it pleases. This line of thinking is wrong for two critical reasons.

The Myth of Norms: Capability is the Real Constraint

First, the argument assumes the U.S. violated a norm that Russia and China currently respect. No such norm exists. Russia has shown no hesitation in targeting foreign leaders, as seen in its attempt to capture Zelensky at the start of the 2022 invasion. Likewise, China’s military doctrine for a Taiwan contingency explicitly includes leadership targeting.

Second, and more importantly, this view ignores the sheer complexity of the U.S. operation. The mission involved thousands of personnel from military and intelligence agencies, all working in tight coordination. It leveraged some of the world's most advanced technology, including:

• Cyber-operations

• Clandestine intelligence gathering

• Preparatory strikes on Venezuelan air defenses

• Highly specialized helicopters flown by elite pilots

What the U.S. possesses is a rare combination of cutting-edge technology and decades of experience in high-risk special operations. Russia and China don't refrain from similar missions because of moral or legal scruples; they refrain because they lack the ability to succeed.

Russia's Failed Kyiv Gambit: A Lesson in Limitations

Russia’s own actions provide the clearest evidence of this capability gap. In the first days of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow tried precisely this type of operation and failed catastrophically.

Russian agents already inside Kyiv were tasked with seizing Zelensky. They were meant to hold him until airborne forces, landing at the nearby Hostomel airport, could reinforce them. Both parts of the plan collapsed. Russian airborne units were decimated in the air and on the ground, while the network of agents in the capital was swiftly dismantled. Having failed with the scalpel, Russia has since resorted to brute force to grind down Ukraine.

China's PLA: High-Tech Rehearsals vs. Real-World Gaps

China's military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), is arguably more technologically advanced than Russia's, but it faces a different, equally critical, weakness: a profound lack of combat experience.

The PLA’s last major conflict was the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979—nearly half a century ago. With high personnel turnover, the military has struggled to retain experienced noncommissioned officers who form the backbone of complex operations. Unlike the U.S., China does not have a deep cadre of combat veterans to train the next generation.

While the PLA rigorously prepares for a Taiwan scenario, even building a full-scale replica of Taiwan's Presidential Office Building for training, rehearsal is not a substitute for real-world experience.

Why Taiwan Isn't Venezuela: The Challenge of a Hard Target

There is also a more obvious obstacle: Taiwan is a far more difficult target than Venezuela. Although its military also lacks recent combat experience, it is extremely well-practiced in monitoring and intercepting hostile aircraft. Taiwan operates a sophisticated network of air- and ground-based early warning systems.

For China to execute an operation comparable to the U.S. mission in Venezuela, it couldn't just neutralize a dozen targets; it would likely need to strike hundreds. Such an effort would demand days of preparatory attacks, giving Taiwan’s leadership ample time to disperse. A "smash and grab" raid on a secure residence in Taipei isn't plausible unless it's part of a full-scale invasion. At that point, it’s no longer a special operation—it’s the beginning of a major war.

Brute Force Over Finesse: The Real Threat from Russia & China

The PLA seems to understand these limitations, which is why its strategy for Taiwan relies on overwhelming power. As demonstrated in recent military exercises, China’s plan involves blockading the island and using air, sea, and land forces to launch precision strikes.

A commentator for the PLA-run outlet China Military Online, Jun Sheng, described "leadership decapitation" as a key objective of these drills. The goal is to show that the PLA can "impose precise punitive measures against the principal instigators at any moment." This is not the language of a covert raid; it's the logic of all-out assault.

Ultimately, the discourse around the Venezuela operation highlights the "invisibility" of American military dominance. U.S. forces are so proficient that their complex operations can appear almost magical. In the last year, the U.S. has conducted combat missions over Yemen, Iran, and Venezuela without a single confirmed loss of a manned aircraft to enemy fire. In contrast, Russia routinely loses aircraft over Ukraine, and the PLA explicitly trains its pilots to avoid dogfights, acknowledging U.S. tactical superiority.

This doesn't dismiss the threats posed by Russia and China. It clarifies them. Both nations rely on brute force to compensate for tactical inferiority. This approach can be effective, but it is not suited for precision special operations. Russia and China won't be emboldened to copy the U.S. because they can't. Russia already tried and failed. China knows it isn't ready.

There is more to the debate than the scale of capital requirements.

Brazil's export sector achieved a record-breaking performance in 2025, demonstrating remarkable resilience in the face of steep US tariffs by strengthening trade ties with China and other global partners.

Government data released Tuesday confirmed that total exports for the year climbed to $348.7 billion. This figure marks a 3.5% increase from 2024 and stands as the highest annual total since records began in 1997.

Navigating US Trade Pressure

The impressive growth occurred despite a major trade dispute with the United States. In August, President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on key Brazilian products, including beef and coffee. The move was intended to pressure Brazil over the imprisonment of former leader Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years for plotting a coup following his 2022 election loss.

In response, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva accelerated a strategy to diversify Brazil's export markets. While President Trump has since lifted the levies on most major Brazilian goods after relations improved, the impact of the trade shift is clear. Shipments to the US fell by 6.6% compared to 2024, while exports to China, Brazil's largest trading partner, grew by 6%.

A Breakdown of Brazil's Economic Engine

The record export figures were driven by strong performance in key sectors of the Brazilian economy. A year-over-year comparison from January to December 2025 shows a mixed but overall positive picture:

• Agriculture: Output surged by 7.1%.

• Manufacturing: Activity expanded by a solid 3.8%.

• Extractive Industry: Production contracted slightly by 0.7%.

For the second consecutive year, oil was Brazil's single most valuable export, representing 12.8% of all shipments. This export boom, a hallmark of Lula's return to office in 2023, has provided a critical boost to an economy grappling with high interest rates.

Future Outlook: New Deals and New Challenges

Looking ahead, Brazil's Trade Ministry projects that exports in 2026 will total between $340 billion and $380 billion, with the trade surplus expected to land between $70 billion and $90 billion.

However, new challenges are emerging. In late December, China introduced quotas on foreign beef imports to protect its domestic farmers. This is a significant development for Brazil, the world's largest beef producer, as China purchases nearly half of its beef exports. The Brazilian government has announced it will open negotiations with Beijing to address the issue.

At the same time, President Lula continues to pursue new trade avenues beyond the world's two largest economies. Efforts are focused on fast-growing Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia and fellow BRICS member India.

Furthermore, a long-sought free trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur—the South American trade bloc founded by Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay—appears closer than ever. After more than 25 years of negotiations, Italy is expected to support the pact, potentially allowing the deal to be signed on January 12. Meanwhile, talks with the US are ongoing to secure the full removal of all remaining tariffs.

Source: cnbc