Russia’s New 'Unfriendliest Nation': U.S. Drops to Fourth as Germans Top the List

Political

Summary:

For the first time in over a decade, Russians no longer see the U.S. as their most unfriendly country. According to a recent Levada Center poll, Germany has overtaken the U.S....

Changing Perceptions Under Trump’s Return

In a striking shift in Russian public opinion, only 40% of respondents now consider the U.S. Russia’s main adversary, a sharp drop from 76% just one year ago, according to the Levada Center’s latest poll. This marks the first time since 2012 that the U.S. has not ranked first on Russia’s list of least-friendly countries.

This turnaround in sentiment coincides with Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. Since resuming office, Trump has made gestures toward improving bilateral ties with Russia and has even positioned himself as a potential mediator in the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. These diplomatic signals appear to have softened Russian public attitudes.

Germany Rises to the Top of the 'Unfriendly List'

The new “most unfriendly nation” in the eyes of Russians is Germany, cited by 56% of respondents. The shift appears tied to the foreign policy direction of newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who succeeded Olaf Scholz in May. Merz has taken a markedly tougher stance toward Moscow, lifting restrictions on the range of German-supplied weapons to Ukraine and openly considering the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to the Ukrainian government.

This aggressive posture has made Germany the focal point of Russian ire, especially among those who previously viewed Berlin as a more moderate actor. In 2021, only 16% of Russians identified Germany as a primary adversary.

The United Kingdom and Ukraine follow closely behind Germany, with 49% and 43% of Russians respectively labeling them as “unfriendly.”

Trusted Allies: Russia’s Inner Circle

On the other end of the spectrum, Belarus remains Russia’s most trusted ally, with 80% of respondents expressing a positive view. China follows at 64%, reflecting a growing political and economic partnership. Kazakhstan (36%), India (32%), and North Korea (30%) round out the top five most friendly nations according to Russian public opinion.

This pattern suggests a consolidation of alliances within Eurasia and the Global South, particularly among countries either neutral or supportive of Russia in the Ukraine conflict. Notably, North Korea’s presence in the top five shows how geopolitical friction with the West can draw previously peripheral actors into tighter alignment with Moscow.

Trump Diplomacy and European Tensions Shift Russia’s Global Outlook

The dramatic drop in anti-American sentiment in Russia highlights the tangible impact of Trump’s second-term diplomacy. At the same time, escalating tensions with European leaders—especially Germany’s hawkish turn—are redrawing the public’s map of friends and foes.

While long-standing distrust of the West remains, the ranking reshuffle signals a nuanced recalibration of Russia’s perceived threats, driven by real-world policy changes and leadership shifts on the global stage.

Source: RT

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Daniel Carter

Central Bank

Economic

Spain's central bank has adjusted its economic growth forecast for the year, lowering it to 2.4% from the previous 2.7%, according to Governor Jose Luis Escriva. The revision, announced on Monday, is attributed to ongoing global trade tensions, although Spain's projected growth still surpasses the euro zone's average.

In addition to the adjustment for this year, the Bank of Spain has also slightly decreased the growth outlook for the following year, bringing it down to 1.8% from 1.9%. This is a step down from the 3.2% expansion experienced last year, a reduction that Escriva attributes to diminished growth in other economies due to the uncertainty brought about by the ongoing tariff war involving the United States, China, and Europe.

Escriva noted that Spain's central macroeconomic scenario incorporates moderate tariff increases and a fiscal boost in defense spending. This comes as the European Central Bank has projected an average growth of 0.9% across the common currency area in 2025, and 1.1% in 2026.

In addition to the growth forecast, the Bank of Spain has also made adjustments to the inflation forecast for this year, lowering it to 2.4% from the previous 2.5%, as stated by Escriva.

Source: Investing

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaway:

Analysts predict XRP could hit $20–$27 in 2025.

XRP ETF approval odds jump to 98% on Polymarket.

XRP recouped losses made between Wednesday and Friday and hovered around $2.26, up 9.7% from its local low of $2.06.

Analysts said the altcoin may rally into double-digits amid increasing optimism of a possible spot XRP ETF approval in 2025.

Approval odds for an XRP ETF jump to 98%

The likelihood of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025 jumped to 98% on Tuesday, according to Polymarket data. XRP Price Will Hit $25 if ETF Approved, Then Crash 90%, New Analysis Says _1

XRP Price Will Hit $25 if ETF Approved, Then Crash 90%, New Analysis Says _1

XRP ETF approval odds on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

Multiple spot XRP ETF applications from major players like Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton and 21Shares have intensified pressure on the SEC, signaling robust demand for regulated XRP investment vehicles.

The launch of XRP futures ETFs by the CME Group on May 19, with $19 million in first-day trading volume, demonstrated market maturity and institutional interest, addressing SEC concerns about regulated derivatives markets.

Three companies across different sectors have unveiled plans to invest over $471 million in XRP treasuries, including Webus International’s $300 million XRP strategic reserve filing with the SEC, further underscoring corporate adoption and growing institutional trust.

Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong.

These factors and Ripple’s legal clarity after the SEC dropped a lawsuit in March have bolstered market sentiment.

Despite SEC delays on the filings, the CME futures market’s success and corporate strategies have driven Polymarket’s approval odds from 68% in April to as high as 98% in early June, reflecting expectations for approvals by Dec. 31.

Approval of these funds could unlock institutional capital, amplifying demand for XRP and potentially driving prices higher, with some analysts predicting $50 if major players like BlackRock step in.

Analysts anticipate XRP price climbing above $25

XRP price has been stuck below $3.00 since Feb. 1, but analysts say that the crypto could see a massive recovery from the current level, with a target of $25 and above.

XRP price is “targeting double digits” in 2025, according to market analyst Egrag Crypto.

Using his “The Guardian Arch” analysis, the analyst suggested that XRP’s price may rally to $20, potentially topping out at $27 based on past price patterns and timelines.

This analysis uses the relative positions of the 21-week exponential moving average and the 33-week simple moving average as key indicators to identify potential turning points.

The analysis also considers the formation of a bull flag in the monthly time frame, which suggests a continuation of the uptrend toward $20, followed by a possible 86% drop to $3.00 during the bear market.

“The measured move suggests $20, but I believe the next #Bullish phase could be harsh and might drop like the 2021 bear market - around 86%. That could bring #XRP down to roughly $3.00 if we hit $27.”

XRP/USD monthly chart. Source: Egrag Crypto

Fellow analyst Jaydee_757 echoed this, saying that XRP’s current technical setup is “comparing the 2017 hidden bullish divergence” in the weekly time frame.

Jaydee_757 explained that the bullish divergence in 2017 led to a 20x rise in XRP price from around $0.0055 to all-time highs above $3.40.

If the 2017 scenario is repeated, a playout of the bullish divergence could see the price rally toward $25 and beyond, representing an over 1,000% increase from current levels.

Jaydee_757 also said that this massive rally could be followed by a 90% price crash during the bear market, suggesting that $25 could mark the top for XRP’s bull cycle in 2025.

“The present time has a similar structure! Biblical move to $25, then historical crash.”

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: Jaydee_757

These analyses align with previous predictions of XRP reaching $27 based on chart fractals, Eliot wave analysis and Fibonacci extensions.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Bond

US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.

An early rally that mirrored moves in European bonds lost steam ahead of the Wall Street open for equity trading. Treasuries were clinging to gains on maturities out to the 10-year. That left US government bonds still nursing the bulk of sharp losses from Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report that saw traders dial back Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations.

A quieter day for economic data Monday is shifting attention to US and China trade talks in London, and events later this week, including consumer inflation on Wednesday and the debt sale the following day. While scheduled bond auctions are typically routine affairs, Thursday’s $22 billion offering will be particularly scrutinized given the recent volatility in long-dated global bonds. Yields have soared in recent weeks amid growing concern over major governments’ spiraling debt and deficits.

“The 30 year is a kind of tail risk type of rate,” said Jeffrey Klingelhofer, portfolio manager at Aristotle Pacific Capital LLC in Newport Beach. “Concerns over deficit spending” matter far more for the long end than, “the seven to 10 year and certainly the shorter part of the curve,” he said.

The US 30-year yield has been marching higher since early April, hitting a peak of 5.15% on May 22, the highest since 2023. It was up around two basis points at 4.99%, from a session low of 4.94% on Monday, while the 10-year yield hovered around 4.51%.

“This is going to be key and really set the tone into June as a whole,” said Lauren van Biljon, fixed income portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, on Bloomberg TV, about the 30-year Treasury auction. “We know how much anxiety there is around longer-term financing.”

Mike Riddell, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said he’s entered a steepener position, which profits from long-dated bonds underperforming shorter ones. Like PGIM Fixed Income, he said the forces driving ultra-long bonds have shifted away from monetary policy.

“It’s no longer about policy rates, it’s all about the fiscal story and demand supply dynamics,” Riddell said. It’s “really concerning” that there “doesn’t appear to be any change in policy on the back of these market moves,” he added.

The US will also hold auctions for three and 10-year notes on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Bond traders must also navigate the May CPI report, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting the year-on-year rate ticking up from 2.3% to 2.5%.

“Signs of inflation pressure could knock risk sentiment, and it may even limit dollar upside, especially if it threatens the US’s 30-year Treasury auction on Thursday,” Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB wrote in a note.

Source: Bloomberg

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Damon

Economic

Wall Street's main indexes were mixed on Monday as investors watched a fresh round of U.S.-China negotiations aimed at mending a trade rift that has rattled financial markets for much of the year.

Top officials from both countries have kicked off discussions at London's Lancaster House, looking to address disagreements around a preliminary trade agreement struck last month that had briefly cooled tensions between the world's largest economies.

The meeting, which could run into Tuesday, comes four days after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke by phone, their first direct interaction since Trump's January 20 inauguration.

The leaders had, however, left key issues unresolved.

"The talks will have to go on for some time before we decide whether or not there's actual progress being made. However, most investors remain hopeful that there will be some positive results," said Peter Andersen, founder at Andersen Capital Management.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC in an interview on Monday the U.S. trade negotiators are seeking a handshake in London to seal an agreement struck by Trump and Xi to allow the export of China's rare earth minerals and magnets to the United States.

Hopes of more trade deals between the U.S. and its major trading partners, along with upbeat earnings and tame inflation data, helped U.S. equities rally in May, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab notching their best monthly gains since November 2023.

The S&P 500 remains a little more than 2% below all-time highs touched in February, while the Nasdaq is about 3% below its record peaks reached in December.

Major data releases this week include readings on May consumer prices and initial jobless claims. While investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged next week, focus will be on any signs of pick-up in inflation as Trump's tariffs risk raising price pressures.

At 10:06 a.m. ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab fell 129.75 points, or 0.30%, to 42,633.12, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab lost 0.32 points, or 0.01%, to 6,000.04 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab gained 44.81 points, or 0.23%, to 19,574.76.

Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sub-sectors fell, with healthcare stocks (.SPXHC), opens new tab, down 0.6%, declining the most. On the flip side, information technology stocks (.SPLRCT), opens new tab advanced 0.6%.

Most megacap and growth stocks were mixed. Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab shares edged 0.5% lower after brokerage Baird downgraded the stock to "neutral". Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab gained 1.3%.

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O), opens new tab shares jumped 9.5%, the most on the S&P 500, after the company said it would separate its studios and streaming business from its fading cable television networks.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O), opens new tab fell 7.4% after S&P Dow Jones Indices left S&P 500 constituents unchanged in its latest rebalancing, following recent speculation that the online brokerage would be added to the benchmark index.

Merck (MRK.N), opens new tab rose 1.1% after the drugmaker's oral cholesterol pill succeeded in two late-stage studies.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.65-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.44-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 10 new 52-week highs and one new low while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 63 new highs and 27 new lows.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Commodity

Oil prices were stable on Monday as investors awaited U.S.-China trade talks in London in the hope that a deal could boost the global economic outlook and subsequently fuel demand.

Brent crude futures gained 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $66.58 a barrel by 1312 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $64.64.

Brent rose 4% last week and WTI 6.2% as the prospect of a U.S.-China trade deal boosted risk appetite for some investors.

U.S. President Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping spoke on the telephone on Thursday before U.S. and Chinese officials meet in London on Monday in an effort to calm trade tensions between the two nations.

A trade deal between the U.S. and China could support the global economic outlook and in turn boost demand for commodities including oil.

Monday's talks could dampen the impact on prices of a slew of Chinese data releases, said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

Chinese export growth slowed to a three-month low in May as U.S. tariffs curbed shipments while factory gate deflation deepened to its worst in two years, heaping pressure on the world's second-largest economy at home and abroad.

"Bad timing for crude oil, which was testing the top of the range and knocking on the door of a technical break above $65," Sycamore said, referring to WTI prices.

The data also showed that China's crude oil imports declined in May to the lowest daily rate in four months as state-owned and independent refiners began planned maintenance.

The prospect of a potential China-U.S. trade deal outweighed concern over the price impact from increased output by the OPEC+ group of oil producers next month.

Source: reuters

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Warren Takunda

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

Other governments have so far taken three main approaches to dealing with Donald Trump’s trade threats. China hit back hard at the U.S. president’s tariffs and got him to back down partly. Canada also retaliated and avoided some of the pain Trump inflicted on other countries. Meanwhile, Britain cut a quick deal that favoured the United States. None of these is a model for the European Union.

The 27-member group is not China. Though its bilateral goods trade, with the United States last year was worth 70% more than between the U.S. and the People’s Republic, the EU is not an autocracy that can outpunch Trump. If it antagonises the U.S. president, he might up the stakes by pulling the rug from under Ukraine and undermining the EU’s defences. American hard power gives it what geopolitical strategists call “escalation dominance”.

The EU is not Canada either. Ottawa was able to hang tough because its people were infuriated that Trump was trying to blackmail Canada into becoming part of the United States. While anti-Trump sentiment is high in the EU, politicians who are sympathetic to him, such as Poland’s new president, can still get elected.

On the other hand, the EU is not the United Kingdom. Both are at risk from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the EU trades seven times more goods with the United States than Britaindoes - so Washington has more to lose if economic relations break down. The EU Can Play It Cool With Trump’s Trade Threats_1

The EU Can Play It Cool With Trump’s Trade Threats_1

There is another way for the EU to handle Trump’s threats: play it cool. That is more or less what the bloc is doing. It involves neither escalating the conflict nor accepting a bad deal. It means being open to a good agreement if the U.S. lowers its demands, but willing to play the long game if it does not.

One reason to buy time is to help Kyiv. The longer the EU has to prepare its own support package for Ukraine, which should include getting it a lot of cash, the less the damage if Trump ultimately cuts off all U.S. aid to the country.

The president’s own vulnerabilities may also increase over time. Just look at the spectacular end of his alliance with Tesla boss Elon Musk. The fragile U.S.trade truce with China may break down causing more financial turmoil, making Trump less keen to pick a fight with the EU. If the Supreme Court stops him using emergency powers to impose tariffs, his negotiating position will be weaker. And tariffs could hurt the U.S. more than its supposed victims, by pushing up inflation and crimping growth.

A QUICK DEAL?

Trump has zig-zagged in his trade threats and actions against the EU. The current state of play is that there are 50% tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminium from the bloc, a 25% tariff on cars and 10% so-called reciprocal tariffs on most other goods.

The U.S. president has threatened to jack up these reciprocal tariffs to 50% if there is no deal by July 9. He is also looking at more “sectoral tariffs”, including on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

While the EU has complained to the World Trade Organization (WTO), it has delayed its own retaliation. Its negotiators accept that they are unlikely to overturn the reciprocal tariffs, the Financial Times has reported.

The bloc still aims to avoid the sectoral ones. Those on cars and any on pharmaceuticals would hurt it the most. It has dangled the possibility of buying more U.S. equipment and natural gas to get a deal.

An agreement on those lines could be good for the EU. It needs to beef up its defences and eliminate its purchases of Russian gas. While it would be best to have its own arms and energy supplies, buying more from the U.S. makes sense as an interim measure. An important nuance, though, is that the EU should reserve the right to take action against the reciprocal tariffs after the WTO issues its verdict, says Ignacio Garcia Bercero, a former senior EU trade official.

Such a pact would involve quite a climbdown by Trump. True, arms and gas purchases would narrow the U.S. goods deficit with the EU, which was $236 billion, last year. But his administration has a host of other complaints including the bloc’s value-added tax and food safety standards as well the digital taxes that some of its members impose on tech giants. It is hard to see the bloc agreeing anything in those areas, says Simon Evenett, professor of geopolitics and strategy at IMD.

BACK TO WAR?

Although the U.S. side described last week’s trade talks with the EU as “very constructive”, discussions could easily break down. The question then is how the bloc would react if Trump imposed higher reciprocal tariffs.

The EU has so far imposed no countermeasures. Though it has agreed to tax 21 billion euros of U.S. imports in response to the steel and aluminium tariffs, it has delayed these until July 14 to try to get a deal. The European Commission, its executive arm, is also consulting on taxing a further 95 billion euros of U.S. imports in response to the car tariffs and the reciprocal ones. But added together, these tit-for-tat measures would be equivalent to only a third of the 379 billion euros of EU imports subject to Trump’s tariffs. The EU Can Play It Cool With Trump’s Trade Threats_2

The EU Can Play It Cool With Trump’s Trade Threats_2

Some analysts, think the bloc needs to be tougher. One idea is to crack down on American services, where the U.S. had a 109 billion euro, surplus with the EU in 2023. Another is to activate its “anti-coercion instrument,allow retaliation against U.S. companies operating in the bloc. Yet another is to threaten to ban exports of critical goods, such as the lithographic equipment necessary to make semiconductors.

Extreme events may require extreme responses. But for now, the EU should keep its cool. It should not kid itself that it is stronger or more united than it is. It should remember that Trump may get weaker with time. And it should never forget Ukraine.