Rupee At Risk Of All-time Low, Leans On Central Bank For Support

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The India rupee is poised to open weaker on Friday, with the imbalance between robust importer hedging and hesitant exporter flows making it vulnerable to a lifetime low and dependent on central bank support.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupeewill open in the 89.40-89.42 range versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 89.3050 on Thursday, and within striking distance of last week's all-time low of 89.49.

The Reserve Bank of India stepped in heavily at the beginning of the week in a bid to break the cycle of weakness that threatened to deepen after last week's breakdown.

Its intervention briefly lifted the rupee back through the 89 handle, offering a short-lived reprieve. The relief, however, faded with persistent dollar demand from importers, hesitant exporter hedging and lacklustre portfolio flows eroding much of the RBI-spurred recovery.

The fact that the rupee is back under pressure despite the RBI's support is noteworthy considering the softness in the dollar.

The dollar indexis headed for its worst week in four months on mounting confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a third straight rate cut next month, a tailwind that would normally offer rupee some respite.

Fed funds futures now imply an 86% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut on December 10, up from about 40% just a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

"You don't get this kind of this slow relentless push higher (on dollar/rupee) unless corporate flows are skewed and there is nothing to offset it," a currency trader at a private sector bank said.

For speculators, there's no macro trigger to chase USD/INR higher, he added.

Source: TradingView

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Gerik

Economic

Diplomatic Recalibration in East Asia

As tensions rise between China and Japan over Taiwan-related security discourse, Beijing has launched a diplomatic effort to draw international allies into its corner. This week, China’s top foreign affairs official, Wang Yi, initiated a strategic conversation with France in an attempt to secure support ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron’s upcoming state visit to China.

The diplomatic row began after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made public remarks on November 7 that linked Japan’s national security to a Taiwan Strait contingency. Beijing interpreted this as an implicit endorsement of potential Japanese military involvement in a Taiwan-related conflict. Chinese officials condemned the comments as a breach of international norms and an affront to China's sovereignty, asserting a causal relationship between the statements and perceived threats to regional stability.

The Chinese Communist Party's flagship newspaper, People’s Daily, reinforced this view in an editorial that framed the comments as a "serious provocation." Beijing demanded a retraction, which Takaichi refused, instead reiterating Japan’s longstanding position of assessing each regional incident based on available intelligence and security needs.

Wang Yi’s Outreach to France

In a phone call with Emmanuel Bonne, the diplomatic adviser to the French president, Wang Yi urged mutual support between Beijing and Paris on matters concerning each country’s "core interests." He emphasized the need for France to uphold the one-China principle, a recurring condition in China’s international diplomacy, particularly when Taiwan is involved.

This appeal is significant given Macron’s scheduled visit to China next week, during which economic and commercial issues will dominate the agenda. Wang’s timing reveals a strategic intent to shape diplomatic perceptions prior to bilateral talks and reflects China's preference for multilateral leverage when dealing with disputes involving fellow G7 members.

UN Outreach and International Framing

China also attempted to internationalize its grievance by submitting a formal complaint to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. The letter accused Prime Minister Takaichi of violating international law and escalating tensions with comments that hinted at potential Japanese military engagement in a Taiwan crisis.

This reflects China’s effort to portray itself as the defender of international legal norms while framing Japan’s comments as escalatory. However, this move could also signal a desire to shift the diplomatic battleground from bilateral dialogues to global platforms, where China's interpretation of sovereignty issues tends to receive broader support from non-Western nations.

France's Role and Strategic Calculations

So far, France has not publicly responded to Beijing's statement. However, Japan and France reaffirmed their security cooperation just days earlier during a call between Takaichi and Macron on November 23. The two countries are progressing toward a Reciprocal Access Agreement to facilitate military cooperation, a development that implicitly challenges Beijing’s narrative.

This bilateral defense dialogue between Paris and Tokyo demonstrates a correlational pattern between shared democratic values and resistance to unilateral coercion in the Taiwan Strait. While it remains unclear whether France will publicly endorse China’s position, current defense agreements and diplomatic ties with Japan suggest limits to Beijing’s ability to reshape European perceptions on the issue.

China’s diplomatic maneuver to enlist France in its feud with Japan reveals the broader strategic stakes surrounding the Taiwan Strait. The episode illustrates how individual remarks by leaders can trigger wider geopolitical recalibrations and influence alignments among major powers. The effectiveness of China’s diplomatic outreach to France may hinge less on historical loyalty and more on strategic calculations linked to trade, security, and global standing factors that neither Beijing nor Paris can afford to navigate carelessly.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

A Long-Awaited Legislative Breakthrough

After years of political stalemate, Australia has enacted a significant overhaul of its environmental protection laws. With support from the minority Greens party, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government successfully passed reforms to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. The new legislation promises enhanced ecological safeguards while also addressing longstanding criticisms regarding inefficiencies in development approvals.

The original 1999 framework had long been criticised by both environmentalists and industry stakeholders for being outdated and overly complex. Environmental lawyer Claire Smith noted that despite its original intentions, the old law failed to effectively prevent environmental degradation. The newly enacted reforms aim to correct these shortcomings through stricter enforcement mechanisms and the establishment of a more streamlined governance structure.

Institutional Reforms and Enforcement Enhancements

A major institutional shift is the creation of a federal Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), designed to operate alongside existing state and territory-level agencies. This new national body will apply consistent environmental standards and oversee the approval of large-scale projects. In addition, stricter penalties have been introduced for violations affecting endangered species and other environmental harms, with fines now reaching up to A$825 million. This policy shift reflects a causal relationship between inadequate past enforcement and persistent biodiversity threats, which the new penalties aim to deter.

One of the core tensions addressed by the legislation lies in reconciling Australia’s reliance on mining, energy, and natural resource exports such as iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas with the imperative to protect its unique ecosystems. The revised law now mandates emissions disclosures for major developments, a move that aligns with global ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) trends. However, efforts by the Greens to include carbon-intensity assessments in project approvals were unsuccessful. This outcome highlights a correlation, not causation, between the emissions transparency requirement and the broader climate regulation landscape, which remains governed by separate legislation.

Economic Impacts and Growth Potential

Beyond ecological concerns, the government expects the new law to act as a catalyst for economic development. By accelerating the approval timeline for critical sectors particularly housing, renewable energy, and critical minerals the law is projected to generate up to A$7 billion in economic benefits. This estimate underscores a cause-effect relationship, where regulatory reform directly stimulates investment by reducing bureaucratic delays.

Australia’s landmark environmental reform signals a shift toward a dual-purpose policy framework: ensuring long-term environmental resilience while supporting economic ambitions. Though not all environmentalist demands were met, the new law introduces a more robust and future-facing legal infrastructure. Whether it can effectively reconcile the country’s ecological vulnerabilities with its economic aspirations will depend on the implementation rigor of the newly formed EPA and the responsiveness of industry stakeholders to these higher standards.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Political

Commodity

Mexico's Attorney General Alejandro Gertz Manero resigned under pressure from President Claudia Sheinbaum, who had grown increasingly frustrated over his handling of high-profile investigations.

The Senate approved his resignation Thursday afternoon and announced that the next attorney general will be selected through an open contest allowing up to 10 candidates to compete for the job. People familiar with the matter said Ernestina Godoy, who served as Mexico City's prosecutor when Sheinbaum was mayor, has the president's support.

The president's office didn't immediately reply to a request for comment.

Sheinbaum's dissatisfaction with Gertz Manero deepened as her team considered his office responsible for leaking sensitive information related to a widening fuel-smuggling scandal known in Mexico as "huachicol fiscal," the people familiar added, requesting anonymity because they're not authorized to speak publicly.

The last straw was how the Attorney General's Office handled a probe into one of the owners of Mexico's Miss Universe franchise, Raul Rocha Cantu, who is facing allegations of smuggling fuels and weapons into the country as part of the "huachico fiscal" scheme.

Details of the investigation leaked to the press revealed Rocha Cantu's ties with state oil company Pemex and the father of the current Miss Universe winner, raising questions about the fairness of the competition.

Sheinbaum was displeased by media reports that the attorney general had offered criminal immunity to Rocha Cantu during the investigation, the people familiar said. She was particularly upset about the probe's impact on Miss Universe, a cherished event in Mexico, according to one of the people.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday morning, the president said the investigation into Rocha Cantu's dealings should not overshadow the beauty queen's win.

"That's separate from the young woman who won the contest," Sheinbaum said. "They want to lump it together, but it's different. They want to take away her merit."

In his letter to the Senate, Gertz Manero justified his resignation by saying Sheinbaum offered him the position of ambassador to a "friendly country," without specifying which one.

The 86-year-old lawyer became Mexico's attorney general in 2019 after the position was revamped the previous year. He had three years left in his mandate. A former Mexico City prosecutor, federal security minister and congressman, he was appointed by former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador — a move questioned by some within the ruling party given his roles in previous administrations and his age.

Gertz Manero's replacement marks the second major change in Sheinbaum's one-year-old administration after she appointed Edgar Amador as finance minister in March.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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MarketPulse by OANDA Group

Forex

Technical Analysis

While US Markets are away for the Thanksgiving holiday, leaving the broader session fairly calm, the FX markets remain open and active, with all eyes turning to the Kiwi Dollar (NZD), posting yet another strong session.

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_1

1-Day FX Performance – NZD demarks itself in the calm Thanksgiving Session – Source: Finviz

The Antipodean currency has faced its share of struggles this year, weighed down by a slowing New Zealand economy that proved more sensitive than its neighbor Australia to the slowdown in global trade post-tariffs—a weakness that was starkly evident in a terrible Q2 GDP growth rate of -0.9%.

However, after 325 basis points of cuts, the data has started to come back in a flash. New Zealand Retail Sales just posted a strong beat of 1.9% versus the 0.5% expected, a sign of strong recovery that follows stronger inflation prints and improving Manufacturing PMIs.

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_2

New Zealand's Main Interest Rate (OCR) since 2020 – Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Adding to the shift in sentiment, RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby mentioned that a future rate cut faces "significant hurdles."

This wording sufficed the market to assume that the 2.25% rate is the lower bound for the Kiwi rate, with markets now pricing rates to stay put throughout 2026.

This fundamental pivot is a clear sign of renewed strength for the NZD, which is up 2.65% against the US Dollar since last Friday.

Let's look at the major Kiwi pair, NZD/USD, to spot where that takes the action looking forward.

NZD/USD Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_3

NZD/USD Daily Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Since July 1st and the comeback of the US Dollar, the NZD/USD has been in a one-way descent, exacerbated by diverging policies between the Fed and the RBNZ.

Taking the pair all the way down to a retest of the Liberation Day troughs in a Monthly Downward Channel, the action is now marking a first clear rebound in months.

Propulsed by changing fundamentals and bullish daily divergences, the ongoing action is strong and will face hurdles at the 50-Day Moving Average (0.57268) and Channel highs.

Still, when looking at how strong the current candles are, these hurdles could be breached soon. For confirmation, look at a session close above the 50-MA.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_4

NZD/USD 4H Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The ongoing rally is also facing a few hurdles on the intraday timeframe:

Overbought RSI levels within the Pivot Zone (0.5720 to 0.5750) could trigger some small mean-reversion.

A retest of the 4H-MA 200 (0.5690) could see higher probability for the action to continue its path higher.

NZD/USD Technical Levels to keep on your charts:

Resistance levels (NZDUSD)

· Main Support turned Pivot 0.5720 to 0.5750 (testing)

· Daily highs 0.5730

· 0.58 Key Resistance

· 0.59 (+/- 150 pips) Resistance

Support levels

· 4H 200 MA at 0.5690

· October Rebound Support at 0.5660 to 0.57

· 4H 50-period MA 0.56385

· January 2025 Support 0.5650

1H Chart

NZD/USD Posts Major Reversal Higher After RBNZ Cut_5

NZD/USD 1H Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking even closer, the action is strongly following the 20-Hour MA at 0.57140;

· A break below would point to a retest of the 4H MA 200 mentioned on the 4H Timeframe

· A break and close above the Daily highs (0.5730) will then face a 100-pip resistance to breakout of the Weekly bear Channel

· Above this, the next Resistance is 600 pips higher.

Source: MarketPulse by OANDA Group

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Winkelmann

Political

Economic

· Three renovation contractors held in manslaughter probe

· Fire Department expects to wrap up search and rescue operations with hours

· Residents spend second night in shelters, some camp out in nearby mall

Hong Kong fire authorities said they expected to wrap up search and rescue operations after the city's worst fire in nearly 80 years tore through a massive apartment complex on Friday, killing at least 94 people and leaving scores more missing.

Soon after dawn on Friday, firefighters had mostly contained the blaze that destroyed the Wang Fuk Court housing complex in the northern district of Tai Po. The eight-tower estate housing more than 4,600 people had been undergoing renovations and was wrapped in bamboo scaffolding and green mesh.

Police said they had arrested three construction company officials on suspicion of manslaughter for using unsafe materials, including flammable foam boards blocking windows.

Firefighters said they expect a search and rescue operation at the still-smoldering complex to be completed by 9 a.m. (0100 GMT).

"We'll endeavor to effect forcible entry to all the units of the seven buildings, so as to ensure there are no other possible casualties," Deputy Fire Services Director Derek Chan told reporters early on Friday.

As many as 279 people were listed as missing in the early hours of Thursday morning, but that figure has not been updated for more than 24 hours. Chan said 25 calls for help to the Fire Department remain unresolved, including three in recent hours which would be prioritised.

Rescuers battled intense heat, thick smoke and collapsing scaffolding and debris as they fought to reach residents feared trapped on the upper floors of the complex.

A distraught woman carrying her daughter's graduation photograph searched for her child outside a shelter, one of eight that authorities said are housing 900 residents.

"She and her father are still not out yet," said the 52-year-old, who gave only her surname, Ng, as she sobbed. "They didn't have water to save our building."

Most of the victims were found in two towers in the complex, while firefighters found survivors in several buildings, Chan said, but gave no further details.

WORST FIRE SINCE 1948

The confirmed death toll rose to 94 early on Friday, the Hospital Authority said. It is Hong Kong's deadliest fire since 1948, when 176 people died in a warehouse blaze.

Police arrested two directors and an engineering consultant of Prestige Construction, a firm that had been doing maintenance on the buildings for more than a year.

"We have reason to believe that the company's responsible parties were grossly negligent, which led to this accident and caused the fire to spread uncontrollably, resulting in major casualties," Police Superintendent Eileen Chung said on Thursday. Prestige did not answer repeated calls for comment.

Police seized bidding documents, a list of employees, 14 computers and three mobile phones in a raid of the company's office, the government added.

The city's development bureau has discussed gradually replacing bamboo scaffolding, opens new tab with metal scaffolding as a safety measure.

Hong Kong's leader, John Lee, said the government would set up a HK$300 million ($39 million) fund to help residents while some of China's biggest listed companies announced donations.

On the second night after the blaze, dozens of evacuees set up mattresses in a nearby mall, many saying official evacuation centres should be saved for those in greater need.

People - from elderly residents to schoolchildren - wrapped themselves in duvets and huddled in tents outside a McDonald's restaurant and convenience shops as volunteers handed out snacks and toiletries.

Hong Kong, one of the world's most densely populated cities, is scattered with high-rise housing complexes. Its sky-high property prices have long been a trigger for discontent and the tragedy could stoke resentment towards authorities despite efforts to tighten political and national security control.

The leadership of both the Hong Kong government and China's Communist Party moved quickly to show they attached utmost importance to a tragedy seen as a potential test of Beijing's grip on the semi-autonomous region.

The fire has prompted comparisons to London's Grenfell Tower inferno, which killed 72 people in 2017. That fire was blamed on firms fitting the exterior with flammable cladding, as well as failings by the government and the construction industry.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Political

Stocks

Nexperia warned that customers across industries are facing impending production halts, while calling on its Chinese unit to take concrete steps to re-establish dialog.

The Dutch chipmaker, which has lost the cooperation of its Chinese subsidiary since the Netherlands government took action to gain influence over decision making, said it welcomed efforts by Chinese authorities to facilitate the resumption of exports but its customers were "still reporting imminent production stoppages."

"This situation cannot persist," Nexperia wrote in an open letter to Nexperia's entities in China on Thursday. The company designs and makes essential semiconductors for the automotive and consumer electronics sectors. Carmakers from Asia to Europe have raised alarm about disruption of its output.

The Dutch government last week suspended an order that gave it powers to block or revise decisions at Nijmegen-based Nexperia. Dutch Economic Affairs Minister Vincent Karremans had called it a "show of goodwill," noting that discussions with Chinese authorities were continuing.

Nexperia said in its letter that it had made repeated attempts to directly communicate with its subsidiary through calls, emails, proposed meetings and even "formal correspondence to demand performance of rights," but did not receive "any meaningful response."

The Dutch company also pushed its Chinese unit to engage in talks either through email or a "neutral, professional third-party mediator" to restore predictable supply flows.

Wingtech Technology Co., the chipmaker's Chinese owner, did not immediately respond to an email requesting comment. It has asked for the restoration of its full control and shareholder rights over Nexperia in the Netherlands.

Earlier on Thursday, the Chinese government urged the Netherlands to take concrete actions to resolve concerns around Nexperia and to bring back stability to the global supply chain.