Ramaphosa Blasts Back At Trump Over Threatened Tariffs On BRICS

Economic

Summary:

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa stepped in to an escalating spat with Donald Trump over the US president’s threats targeting the BRICS group, saying that “it cannot be that might should now be right.”

“It is really disappointing that when there is such a very positive collective manifestation such as BRICS, there should be others who see it in negative light and want to punish those who participate,” Ramaphosa told reporters in Rio de Janeiro as he left the two-day summit of BRICS nations. “It cannot be and should not be.”

Ramaphosa was the first leader to break cover and criticize Trump for his comments overnight warning BRICS members of penalties for adopting policies he said were “anti-American.” The summit’s host, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, earlier declined to address Trump’s comments, saying that he’d speak only once the meeting was concluded.

The president huddled with his advisers ahead of an afternoon news conference, who implored him not to take the bait and jack up tensions further.

Members of the ten-nation grouping of emerging-market economies were mostly reluctant to engage with Trump’s warning of additional 10% tariffs. Several officials from different nations said that it wasn’t possible to second-guess what Trump will do, since his original social-media post may be a specific threat or more rhetoric. Wait and see is the only option for the group’s approach, they said.

However, the final day of the BRICS summit in Rio was heading toward a confrontation. Hours apart, Trump sent two posts on Truth Social that put Brazil firmly in his crosshairs, first as the host nation and then jumping in defense of Lula’s political foe and presidential predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

The backdrop is an ever-changing tariff deadline on trade deals that has a swathe of countries, many of them attending the summit in Rio, facing punishing levies. Over the weekend, the BRICS took aim at those US policies making clear they were directed at Trump while avoiding calling him out by name. A separate declaration also condemned US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Top officials waking up to the news in a rainy Rio were adopting a wait-and-see approach. The South African president, however, opted to enter the fray, and the spotlight will be on Lula when he gives a news conference slated for later in the day.

“There needs to be greater appreciation of the emergence of various centers of power in the world,” Ramaphosa said, adding that it “should be seen in positive light rather than in a negative light.”

“It cannot be that might should now be right where, in the end, those who are more powerful are the ones who seek to have vengeance against those who are seeking to do good in the world,” he said.

BRICS leaders representing 49% of the world’s population and 39% of global GDP agreed on a joint statement that took positions at odds with the Trump administration on matters of war and peace, trade and global governance.

While expressing “serious concerns” over tariffs, blasting soaring defense spending, and condemning airstrikes on BRICS member Iran, the group declined to call out the US by name.

Trump responded with his threat to slap an additional 10% levy on any country aligning themselves with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS.” Currencies from developing nations and stocks dropped early Monday, with South Africa’s rand leading losses among majors.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Olivia Brooks

Stocks

Economic

U.S. stocks fell Monday amid growing uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s plans for trade tariffs, after hitting record highs last week.

At 09:32 ET (13:32 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 95 points, or 0.2%, the S&P 500 index dropped 22 points, or 0.4%, and the NASDAQ Composite slipped 95 points, or 0.5%.

The main averages were closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both posted record closing levels on Thursday.

Caution over trade negotiations

Wall Street is set to start the new week on a cautious note with the expiration of a pause to Trump’s heightened reciprocal tariffs drawing close, and the trade talks having only yielded preliminary deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, as well as a trade truce with China.

That said, the United States will make several trade announcements in the next 48 hours, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday, ahead of a U.S. deadline on Wednesday to finalize trade pacts.

"We’ve had a lot of people change their tune in terms of negotiations. So my mailbox was full last night with a lot of new offers, a lot of new proposals," Bessent said in an interview with CNBC. "So it’s going to be a busy couple of days."

President Donald Trump said the United States would start delivering tariff letters on Monday outlining their new tariff rates, although some confusion has surrounded when the levies would come into effect, with media reports suggesting that rates may not kick in until August 1.

Markets are also uncertain over just how high Trump’s tariffs will be, given that the president in early-April announced tariffs going as high as 50% on major economies, while he also said over the weekend that the rates could reach 60% or 70%.

Adding to the uncertainty, Trump also said that countries aligned with the BRICS bloc will face an extra levy over allegedly anti-American practices.

Trump has repeatedly criticized the bloc, which consists of founding members Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, over its efforts to develop new trade alternatives to the United States.

Fed minutes due Wednesday

There’s little on the economic data slate Monday, and so eyes are likely to turn to the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday, with investors keen for more insight into how policymakers see interest rates evolving over the rest of the year.

At its gathering in June, the U.S. central bank chose to leave borrowing costs unchanged at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, arguing that a wait-and-see approach continued to be appropriate as more clarity emerged around the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the broader economy.

Tesla hit hard

There are only a few major companies scheduled to report earnings this week, including Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), packaged foods group Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) and jeans-maker Levi Strauss (NYSE:LEVI).

Elsewhere, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares fell sharply after CEO Elon Musk said he will launch a new political party, as investors fear that the move will likely further divert his attention away from the company.

Brokerage firm Wedbush warned in a Sunday note that Musk diving deeper into politics is “exactly the opposite direction” that Tesla investors and shareholders want from the CEO, especially as the electric car company grapples with declining sales and prepares a pivot into autonomous vehicles.

Musk’s announcement of the “America Party” also comes amid a bitter public feud between the Tesla CEO and U.S. President Donald Trump, especially over the recently-approved “Big Beautiful Bill.”

Elsewhere, Kalvista Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:KALV) stock soared after the company said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved its drug, the first on-demand oral treatment for a type of hereditary swelling disorder.

Correctional institutions Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) and CoreCivic (NYSE:CXW) both gained after the passing of Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, which significantly increases funding for immigrant detention.

Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) stock fell after the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened a recall query covering about 1.2 million of the auto giant’s Ram trucks over concerns related to the transmission.

Source: Investing

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Adam

Bond

U.S. Treasury yields were little changed Monday as investors monitored trade tensions amid an extension of the 90-day tariff reprieve deadline and as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened more tariffs.

At 6 a.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year yield was up just over one basis point to 4.353%. The 30-year bond yield was also up over 2 basis points to 4.882%. The 2-year Treasury yield was down one basis point to 3.871%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Investors have been monitoring the approaching deadline for Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve on most countries, with tariffs expected to revert to April 2 levels on Tuesday. However, Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified to reporters on Sunday that reciprocal tariffs will return to original levels on Aug. 1, for countries without a deal already.

“Tariffs go into effect Aug. 1. But the president is setting the rates, and the deals, right now,” Lutnick said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said on CNN on Sunday: “President Trump’s going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that if you don’t move things along, then on August 1, you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level.”

More tariff drama developed on Sunday as Trump threatened additional 10% tariffs on nations that align themselves with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.”

BRICS’ members — which include Brazil, Russia, India and China — are meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The bloc’s leaders criticized Trump’s tariff policies in a joint statement on Sunday, warning against “unjustified unilateral protectionist measures, including the indiscriminate increase of reciprocal tariffs.”

On the economic data front, it’s quiet this week, but investors will keep an eye out for the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday.

Source: cnbc

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin was inches away from all-time highs after it sealed another record weekly close.

Bitcoin traders are eyeing both a return to price discovery and a “false move” to take liquidity at $105,000.

The weekly close sealed July as a month for the record books, with “final resistance” now next on bulls’ to-do list.

US trade tariffs are the macro talking point of the week, while dollar weakness continues to fuel risk-asset relief.

Bitcoin funding rates are declining while price rises, setting up a potential short squeeze.

Investor greed is rising, with the Fear & Greed Index in “extreme” territory despite macro risks.

Bitcoin liquidity targets include $105,000 dip

After a late-week bout of weakness thanks to long-dormant BTC wallets reactivating after 14 years, Bitcoin is back on form as the week begins.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows price action focusing on the $109,000 mark as Wall Street returns. ‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Having flipped the key $108,000 level to support, BTC/USD is increasingly giving traders cause to believe that new all-time highs are around the corner. ‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_3

“$BTC Sets its high or low of the month within its first 12 days over 80% of the time,” trader Daan Crypto Trades noted in his latest analysis on X.

“It then usually proceeds to trend in the other direction for a sizeable 20%+ move from that high or low.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Trading resource Material Indicators noted that a return to price discovery was blocked by a band of ask liquidity at $110,000. ‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

BTC/USDT order-book liquidity data. Source: Material Indicators/X

Monitoring resource CoinGlass confirmed $110,000 as the key level to break through to the upside, while bid support was lining up at $107,800. ‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

“When price consolidates, liquidation targets are very powerful. They tend to act as price magnets,” fellow trader CrypNuevo continued in an X thread on Sunday.

CrypNuevo unearthed another liquidation target near $105,000, making a trip there a likelihood thanks to that level coinciding with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).

“The main individual liquidation level is at $105.2k. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see a false move to this zone first, confluence with the 1D50EMA,” he explained, describing such a low as a “good entry point.” ‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

BTC/USDT order-book liquidity data for Binance. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Weekly close keeps the records coming

After some last-minute gains on the back of US macroeconomic headlines, Bitcoin achieved another record weekly close on Sunday.

At around $109,240 on Bitstamp, the close saw BTC/USD build on a previous rebound, which erased an entire week’s downside.

The pair is up by 1.8% in the first week of July, adding to 2.8% gains from the month prior.

Reacting, some crypto market participants were highly optimistic, with commentator Matthew Hyland arguing that bulls were now “in control.” ‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

In separate X analysis, Hyland concluded that he “has to favor a continuation to all time highs here in July.” ‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/X

Prior to the event, trader and analyst Rekt Capital said that a new record close would be “truly pivotal.”

“Bitcoin has done it,” he subsequently confirmed.

“Bitcoin has just about Weekly Closed above the final major Weekly resistance (red), registering its highest ever Weekly Close. The goal for Bitcoin now is to turn this final resistance into support to springboard price to new All time Highs.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Tariff talk returns with risk assets riding high

Fed interest-rate watchers will gain further insight into recent decisions to hold rates at current levels as the minutes of its June meeting are released this week.

In what is a broadly quiet week for US macroeconomic data, attention remains focused on Fed policy, which has diverged significantly from government demands.

US President Donald Trump has remained vocal about cutting rates to as little as 1% from the current 4.25%, leveling personal criticism at Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The renewed buzz around US international trade tariffs over the weekend underscored the Trump-Fed divergence. At the June rates meeting and elsewhere, Powell repeatedly linked tariffs to inflationary pressures.

Now, with the deadline for reciprocal tariffs pushed to Aug. 1 from July 9, markets have only a brief respite from the issue.

“Markets have been pricing this in for weeks,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter argued in a recent X analysis, noting that a large number of countries had not reached out to the US to negotiate trade deals. ‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_11

‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_11

Source: Mosaic Asset

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic, trading firm Mosaic Asset linked strong risk-asset performance in the face of inflation uncertainty to dollar weakness.

“Another catalyst behind the risk-on move in the stock market is the US Dollar Index (DXY),” it told readers about the risk-asset “tailwind.”

“The dollar has fallen by over 10% this year, which makes 2025 the worst start for DXY since 1973.”

US Dollar Index (DXY) 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The week’s other key events include initial jobless claims and speaking appearances from senior Fed officials, including a speech on its balance sheet from Christopher Waller at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, on Thursday.

Funding rates buck BTC price trend

Bitcoin’s record weekly close was being met with some familiar skepticism by some traders, potentially setting up another uptick as a result.

Fresh commentary from the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant noted that funding rates are declining as BTC price action improves.

“As BTC enters a bullish trend, the declining funding rates indicate that Binance users are increasingly opening short positions. In other words, many traders are not buying into the rally and are instead betting against it,” contributor BorisVest wrote in a Quicktake blog post on Sunday.

“This mismatch between price direction and market sentiment often leads to forced short liquidations or margin top-ups, adding fuel to the upward move.”Bitcoin funding rates chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Mass liquidations of short BTC positions, as Cointelegraph reported, have characterized the market in recent months as BTC/USD hunts liquidity on either side of the order book.

“Short positions on Binance futures are increasing, signaling that many traders perceive the current rally as an opportunity to sell,” BorisVest said.

Last week, Cointelegraph noted that history has produced significant price upside as a result of negative funding rates.

Investor “greed” creeps back to extremes

Bitcoin at all-time highs mirrors exuberant US stocks, but the macro climate could hardly be more uncertain.

The growing gap between market mood and economic reality is highlighted in sentiment indexes for both TradFi and crypto.

According to the latest data from CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, TradFi investors are currently in a state of “extreme greed” despite tariff woes, inflation risks and geopolitical tensions.

The index measured 78/100 at the time of writing on Monday. ‘False Move’ to $105K? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_14

Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: CNN

“Investor sentiment and positioning reached extremely bearish levels during the April lows in the stock market. That was a key catalyst in driving a bottom and reversal higher in the stock market,” Mosaic Asset wrote on the phenomenon.

“Sentiment has been slow to shift back in the other direction despite the S&P 500’s recovery to fresh record highs. That’s now starting to change based on several measures of investor fear and greed.”Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The Index’s crypto equivalent shows a similar trend, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 73/100, its highest since late May and up 6 points in 24 hours.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Damon

Economic

Stocks

US equities fell at the open as concerns about trade returned with President Donald Trump planning to deliver tariff warnings later on Monday.

The S&P 500 Index dropped 0.4% by 9:32 a.m. in New York, with all of the eleven sectors in red, declines led by consumer discretionary and healthcare. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.2%. The Dow is just steps away from hitting a new all-time high.

Among individual stocks, Tesla Inc. shares slid 7.7% after Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party, deepening his involvement in a pursuit that’s weighed on his most valuable business. Netflix Inc. was downgraded to neutral from buy at Seaport Global Securities, which cites valuation in the wake of strong gains at the streaming-video company. CoreWeave Inc. said it will buy Core Scientific Inc. in an all-stock deal worth about $9 billion.

Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS,” in a social media post.

Still, US officials have signaled that trading partners will have until Aug. 1 before tariffs take effect, offering a three-week window for negotiations. Earlier, the administration had warned of a July 9 deadline for countries to reach a deal.

“While stocks are at elevated levels with the recent upward momentum, we could see choppy trading from overbought levels and ongoing tariff uncertainty as President Trump extends his July 9th deadline to August 1st,” said Ivan Feinseth, chief investment officer at Tigress Financial Partners.

The European Union said it’s nearing a framework trade agreement with the US after the head of the bloc’s executive arm, Ursula von der Leyen, held a call with Trump on Sunday.

Meanwhile, treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he’s going to be meeting with his Chinese counterpart “sometime in the next couple of weeks.”

After both S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 climbed to records in the past weeks, a gauge of market sentiment from Bloomberg Intelligence is approaching manic levels — a condition that, if sustained, has historically signaled slower forward returns and a shift toward more defensive market leadership.

Later this week, investors will turn their focus to the meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June rate decision.

“In a quiet week for economic releases, the most important will be the minutes of the Fed’s June decision,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. “They will probably reinforce that the Committee expected to hold interest rates steady at their July decision when they met in June.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Forex

Some of Wall Street’s tried-and-true currency strategies aren’t working anymore, and it’s baffling even the most seasoned traders.

Before President Donald Trump’s policies sent the dollar plunging, investors could reliably use a number of indicators to figure out how to trade. Europe cuts interest rates? Sell euros. Markets look jittery? Buy dollars. Oil prices spike? Time to snap up currencies from commodity exporters.

But now, those signals are misfiring more frequently. Traders at UBS Group AG and Mizuho International Plc, say the models they used to count on getting it right are instead getting it wrong. And the new forces driving currency markets, like the broad shift of money out of the US and foreign investors buying dollar hedges, are hard to track because the data is sparse, making it tough for professionals to adjust their systems. As a result, they’re running smaller and simpler trades.

“Rules of thumb have kind of gone out of the window,” said Lu Xin, a currency derivatives trader at UBS. “Everyone has come to accept that more uncertainty is the new norm.”

Xin says he’s being cautious when it comes to risk and that his trading strategies are stricter. “People are more afraid to be short options going into weekends,” he added.

At Mizuho, the confusion has become something of a running joke on the desk. Jordan Rochester says his colleague, options trader Nikhil Kochhar, was shouting “Why!?” to puzzling market swings so often that he gifted him a custom baseball cap with that tagline.

“What will happen in one or two months time is someone will tap us on the shoulder and say, ‘Why weren’t you short more dollars? It was obvious,’” said Rochester. “It wasn’t obvious.”

It all shows how experts have been blindsided by the dollar’s selloff and are now questioning whether the past few months will go down as a chaotic but short-lived adjustment or the start of a harder-to-navigate era.

With Trump’s threatening to start imposing tariffs on dozens of countries in the coming days, a fresh round of volatility could be in store for markets this week.

Plenty of investors are already paying the price for ill-timed bets. A BarclayHedge index of 25 currency programs that trade futures and cash forwards has returned just 0.6% this year. If that sticks on an annual basis, it would be the most dismal performance since 2017.

With the benefit of hindsight, there have been clear reasons behind currency moves. The biggest driver being Trump’s aggressive agenda of tax cuts and tariffs that sent the dollar down more than 10% against the euro and Swiss franc this year. Plus, it’s not unusual for markets to shift from one focus to another.

But traders say that the speed and severity with which it all unfolded this year surprised them, and it’s increasingly expensive to hedge swings in a market that’s the most volatile that they’ve seen in years.

Idanna Appio at First Eagle Investments is one of those investors wary of trusting her models. It’s currently sending a signal that she should be neutral on the dollar, partly because the US has higher interest rates than many other countries. But her instincts tell her that’s the wrong call, so she’s choosing to stay short the greenback versus the euro and the yen.

“Interest-rate differentials worked well for an extended period of time,” she said. “Now there’s something else going on.”

What Bloomberg Strategists Say

“When big structural shifts hit FX, old correlations don’t just break — they mutate. The market is leaning hard into the de-dollarization narrative, underpinned by the belief that the US administration wants a weaker currency. In this environment, when flows talk, everything else walks.”

—Vassilis Karamanis, FX strategist, Athens

Take the dollar and euro. In June, the European Central Bank cut borrowing costs for the eighth time in this cycle, bringing the deposit rate to 2%. While in the US, the Federal Reserve last chose to hold in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

All else being equal, that would argue for a strong dollar and weak euro. The opposite has happened, with the euro surging 13% this year to a four-year high.

That’s starting to ring alarm bells for Brad Bechtel, global head of FX sales and trading at Jefferies LLC. He warns there will eventually be a snap back in the dollar to bring it in line with interest-rate trends.

“Whatever the driver, it’s pushing things to the extreme because it’s not impacting central bank policy or growth expectations,” he said. “Something’s off.”

Part of the difficulty is that the link between asset prices has shifted in some unusual ways. In the case of the dollar, it has a tendency to move in the opposite direction to the VIX Index, meaning it may fall when investors are fearful, instead of rising alongside other safe havens.

That played out to some extent in how the dollar has responded to the conflict in the Middle East. While previously, traders could count on a spike in oil and the dollar when tensions rose in the region, it’s not as easy to predict as it used to be.

For instance, on June 23, oil prices swung wildly in the aftermath of Iran’s attack at a US air base in Qatar. Brent surged past $81 a barrel and touched the highest level since January, before sharply retreating as the strikes were viewed to be largely symbolic. In contrast, the moves in the dollar on that day were smaller than might be expected.

“When the correlations break down, it makes it very, very hard,” said Kochhar, the currency trader at Mizuho. “In an event like when the Israel-Iran war started, now you wonder whether that’s going to lead to a dollar bid or a dollar selloff.”