'Progress' Reported In Gaza Talks, As Trump Denies Telling Israeli PM To Not Be 'F*cking Negative'

Political

Summary:

Negotiator reports that a spirit of optimism prevails...

Axios last week reported that President Trump recently told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop being so "f*cking negative" and "take the win" after Hamas voiced its initial agreement to free the 48 remaining hostages (both dead and alive) as part of the US 20-point peace plan for Gaza.

However, in more recent remarks Trump has denied ever saying this, or clashing with the Israeli leader on the pending agreement. "No, it’s not true. He's been very positive on the deal," Trump said of Netanyahu.

Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer - who is the top negotiator for Israel (center), via Associated Press.

Asked specifically whether he has any red lines for Hamas in new round of negotiations that kicked off Monday in Egypt, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he does: "If certain things aren’t met, we’re not going to do it," he said.

Commenting on the potential for private vs. public friction further, Israeli media concludes the following:

Trump at times has avoided criticizing Netanyahu in public, even as reports have mounted about his private frustration with the Israeli premier, including during a tense phone call last week in which the Axios news site reported the US president responded angrily when Netanyahu said Hamas’s ambivalent response was "nothing to celebrate."

US envoy Steve Witkoff is in Egypt joining the talks Wednesday, as is Trump's son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, and Erdogan too has sent Turkish officials, which may amount to too many cooks in the kitchen. The Turkish delegation is led by spy chief Ibrahim Kalin.

Top Hamas leader Taher al-Nunu has offered a generally positive assessment of where thing stand so far. "The mediators are making great efforts to remove any obstacles to the implementation of the ceasefire, and a spirit of optimism prevails among all parties," he said.

The two warring sides have exchanges lists of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners to be released in the major swap. But even if this is agreed to, the question of ending the war, and a future Gaza where Hamas is disarmed, remains a big open one.

In Tuesday comments in the Oval Office, Trump said "So the primary guarantee is, once this deal happens, if it does happen — look, they’re in negotiations right now."

"We are going to do everything possible. We have a lot of power, and we’re going to do everything possible to make sure everybody adheres to the deal," he added. However, it's notable that Trump stopped short of explicitly vowing that Israel would be barred from resuming military operations. For now, media reports say "progress" is being made in

Source: Zero Hedge

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Adam

Economic

The resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has shown that this latest French government crisis is different to the previous ones because, this time, key allies of the government had been instrumental in toppling it, rather than the opposition.

Since then, a wider trend has emerged of allies turning against French President Emmanuel Macron. This has accelerated this week with his own former prime ministers coming out one after the other to criticize the president for his handling of the political deadlock that has gripped the National Assembly.

The most notable criticism has come from Gabriel Attal, once Macron’s protégé, and the youngest ever prime minister when appointed in early in 2024.

He lost the job just a few months later after Macron decided to call a snap election in June 2024, blindsiding even some of his closest allies, including Attal, who since then has been gradually distancing himself from his mentor.

Now the leader of Macron’s centrist group in parliament, Attal said on television Monday evening that “like many French, I no longer understand the president’s decisions” adding that the president gives ” the impression of a form of relentlessness, of wanting to keep control.”

Then on Tuesday Morning, Edouard Philippe, Macron’s very first prime minister during three years of his first term in office, made a shock call for an early presidential election, talking about a “woeful political game” and “a political crisis that worries and dismays our fellow citizens.”

He continued, “we’re not going to let what we’ve been experiencing for the past six months drag on for another 18 months; that’s far too long.” In his view, this crisis, “is not just a chronicle and a dance of posturing and ambitions, this crisis is a crisis of the state.”

On Tuesday evening, it was the turn of Elisabeth Borne.

Prime minister between May 2022 and January 2024, she came out with what may be both the way to solve the current crisis and the undoing of Macron’s legacy: suggesting the possible suspension of the infamous pension reform.

Borne was in charge of the government during the tough times of the negotiations and protests around the controversial reform to raise the minimum pension age from 62 to 64 years old.

Despite being adopted a couple of years ago, the reform continues to be a lightening rod for French politics, with both the left and the far-right calling for its amendment, if not its repeal altogether.

The freezing of the reform could open a potential path for negotiations with the Socialist Party with the aim of avoiding a dissolution of parliament. But the undoing of the totemic reform of Macron’s mandates would be highly symbolic.

Maybe it will be the necessary sacrifice to avoid a deeper crisis and deleterious spiral for French politics and institutions, arguably a much worst legacy for Macron.

Source: cnbc

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Adam

Stocks

Two currencies are at the center of Forex movement in this volatile session: the Kiwi and the Yen — and not in a favorable spot.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a 50 bps rate cut, twice as large as many anticipated and only half priced in before the event.

The decision followed a string of disappointing economic data that confirmed deeper cracks in New Zealand’s fragile economy — a trend that had pushed markets toward a dovish repricing earlier this summer.

With the move from the central bank, the NZD took a large hit, particularly from the hesitant pre-meeting pricing (a smaller 25 bps was also 50% priced).

But how much worse can it get? A larger cut today may take out pricing for future cuts.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen finds itself trapped in a different kind of storm — political uncertainty.

Newly elected LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, the first woman to hold the role, is facing difficulties forming a coalition with the Komeito party, leaving Japan’s leadership in partial deadlock.

This uncertainty, paired with growing fiscal concerns, has capped the yen’s prior momentum.

What started as a pre-election strengthening has now flipped into an N-shaped reversal (for nope), with traders sharply selling the currency until clarity returns to Tokyo’s political landscape.

Let's dive into two charts for both currencies: NZDUSD and USDJPY to spot what's next.

NZDUSD two-timeframe analysis and levels

NZDUSD Daily Chart

NZDUSD Daily Chart, October 8, 2025

The major pair is caught in a downward channel which acted as a sudden support from the selling spikes.

Still largely in a bearish sequence, the pair trades below its 2025 Key support (0.59) and even below its momentum pivot.

However, some value-seeking dip buyers entered to bring back the pair +0.70% from its daily lows as peak dovishness from the RBNZ might be getting priced in.

Let's take a closer look:

NZDUSD 2H Chart and levels

NZDUSD 2H Chart, October 8, 2025

NZD Buyers did change the picture quite sharply after the cut, sending more balanced signs into the price action: If the cut was so dovish, the action would still be at the lows.

Hence, it might be equivocal to look at a more rangebound price action as long as it is contained between the Monthly channel lows and the topline seen on the chart.

Keep an eye on the Pre-Cut level and Daily lows for further momentum insights.

Levels of Interest for NZDUSD trading:

Support Levels:

March highs Support and Channel lows 0.5730 to 0.5770

Session lows for Bulls to defend 0.5737

0.5650 March Lows Support

0.56 Psychological Level

Resistance Levels:

Pre-cut levels for Sellers to defend 0.57955

Current High timeframe Pivot 0.5850, topline and MA 200

0.59 Main Resistance Zone (+/- 150 pips)

USDJPY two-timeframe analysis and levels

USDJPY Daily Chart and levels

USDJPY Daily Chart, October 8, 2025

The most volatile FX major pair is now up 3.50% from its weekend gap up, followed by the strongest bull candles seen since December 2024 and some hawkish repricing for the FED.

Japanese politicians will have to be careful with their wordings as the charts are sending worrying signs.

Breaking through all-types of resistance levels, the pair is raging higher in an attempt to reprice Yen weakness from the worsening Fiscal outlook.

Keep in mind that Markets are pricing in the worst case for the Yen, therefore any better-looking comment may have a sell-the news effect.

For now, Kazuo Ueda cancelled his speech so the current trade plays on.

The pair will be volatile for while now and traders should expect to see levels breaking up and down depending on upcoming speeches from the Bank of Japan and politicians.

Levels of interest for JPY Trading:

Resistance levels

Early 2025 interest zone 153.00 to 153.70

Major Resistance 155.00

Following Key Resistancee 157.00

Support levels

151.00 to 152.00 Key Resistance now Pivot

150.00 Psychological Support

147.80 to 148.00 Key supporta and MA 50 & 200

Source: marketpulse

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Adam

Stocks

European stocks were higher on Wednesday, as investors reacted to proposed tariffs on steel imported into the European Union.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally ended the session up 0.8%, with most sectors and major bourses in positive territory.

The U.K. has been left fearing for its beleaguered steel industry after the European Union announced plans on Tuesday to reduce tariff-free quotas on imported steel, and to hike tariffs from 25% to 50% on any excess imports.

The industry is already facing significant pressure from unsustainable levels of global overcapacity, the bloc said. The U.K.’s steel industry warned that the EU measures could be an existential blow to the already limping sector.

Regional steel producers rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 on the news, with Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal stock advancing 6.6%, Sweden’s SSAB adding 5.3%, and Thyssenkrupp rising by 4.7%.

Autos stocks provisionally closed down 2.1% amid widespread concern that steel tariffs will push up prices for vehicle manufacturers. BMW, down 8.3%, led losses in the sector after the German carmaker trimmed its margin guidance on the back of weak China sales. Daimler Truck ended the day 1.7% lower, while Mercedes-Benz shed 2.9%.

“We do not contest the need for some level of protection for a commodity industry like steel but we feel that the parameters as proposed by the Commission go too far in ring-fencing the European market,” European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association Director General Sigrid de Vries said in a statement. “We need to find a better balance between the needs of European producers and users of steel in this measure.”

SoftBank to buy ABB robotics unit

Meanwhile, SoftBank Group is set to buy the robotics division of Swiss engineering firm ABB in a deal worth $5.4 billion. Shares of ABB provisionally ended the day 0.8% higher.

France also remains in focus for regional investors after the shock resignation of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu on Monday morning, before he’d even presented the fractious National Assembly with budget plans — which have undone two previous short-lived administrations.

In a surprise twist, however, French President Emmanuel Macron gave Lecornu another 48 hours for “final discussions” with rival parties to try to break the impasse. Lecornu is due to report to Macron on Wednesday evening on any potential breakthrough.

U.S. stocks were slightly higher on Wednesday after the S&P 500 snapped a seven-day winning streak. A fall in Oracle shares called into question the sustainability of the artificial intelligence trade. The government shutdown is also in its second week.

Source: cnbc

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Devin

Economic

The Senate is set to vote again on Wednesday on competing Republican and Democratic funding proposals to end the government shutdown, which stretched into its eighth day with no hint of progress toward a resolution.

The dueling stopgap measures will be the final two in a series of three votes that were scheduled to begin at 11:20 a.m. ET. The resolutions failed to pass in five previous votes.

Both parties' leaders blame each other for the shutdown, which began on Oct. 1.

Republicans, who hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress, want a short-term measure that will resume funding the U.S. government at current levels through Nov. 21.

Democrats demand that any such bill include health-care protections — especially an extension of enhanced Obamacare subsidies that are set to expire at the end of this year.

"Republicans are shutting down the government because they refuse to fix and address the crisis in American healthcare," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said before the votes began.

Republicans currently need about eight votes from senators in the Democratic caucus to pass their short-term funding measure to overcome the Senate's 60-vote filibuster rules.

President Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans have largely refused to negotiate with Democrats, whom they accuse of holding the government hostage.

The Democrats' funding proposal "doesn't pass here, doesn't pass the House, wouldn't get signed into law by the president," Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said on the chamber floor after Schumer.

The White House has also warned that federal workers will be fired, and floated the possibility of denying back pay to furloughed employees, if the shutdown drags on much longer.

But House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said on Wednesday that he agrees that federal law requires furloughed workers to be paid upon their return to work.

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Stocks

Stocks are sitting at record highs, but some Wall Street strategists say that very optimism could be a warning sign.

In a note to clients on Monday, Citi strategist Chris Montagu said buying activity has been strongest among smaller companies, with the Russell 2000 (^RUT) seeing the largest weekly increase in bullish bets. This has left markets more fragile, especially if momentum stalls, he said.

"Profit-taking risks have rapidly risen across markets, and are particularly elevated for Nasdaq, potentially hampering further upside," Montagu said.

Notably, the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) has surged roughly 46% since the April lows, underscoring how quickly enthusiasm, particularly around AI, has fueled the latest leg higher.

Citi's Levkovich Index — which tracks flows, positioning, and risk appetite — shows markets are still deep in euphoria. Historically, returns from this level have been weaker as optimism leaves less room for upside surprises.

That picture is echoed elsewhere. Goldman Sachs said client sentiment is at its highest level since December, while Barclays' sentiment tracker also sits firmly in "exuberant" territory. The concern is that investors may be overconfident, especially as valuations hover near multidecade highs.

According to DataTrek Research, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is now trading at roughly 25 times expected earnings, a level the firm said "reflects complete confidence (and then some)" that profits will deliver. That implies earnings would need to climb 13% next year and another 10% in 2027 to justify current prices.

Against that backdrop, concerns about market concentration and speculative behavior are growing louder. Michaella Gallina, CEO of On Course Consulting, told Yahoo Finance's Stocks in Translation that "we're seeing very high valuations," warning that with such a narrow rally, driven almost entirely by a handful of AI heavyweights, investors have "little margin of safety" if momentum fades.

"If you think you have the S&P index in your portfolio as a diversified index, it's not today," she said. "It's a concentrated tech portfolio."

Chris Watling, global economist and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, echoed that view, saying the market's rapid climb is beginning to show classic signs of exhaustion.

"What we see at the moment is a market that's running extremely hard," he told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. "It's starting to look very speculative, very frothy, very greedy. And that's generally the kind of setup you get before you get a pullback."

He pointed to record levels of single-stock call-option buying, saying they're "way above records" from prior peaks, and cautioned that even large-cap stocks are being swept up in momentum buying.

"Everyone's getting sucked in, shorts are getting squeezed, and the market's suddenly got no downside protection," he said.

Watling stopped short of calling the end of the bull market but noted that short-term corrections are increasingly likely.

"I'm not suggesting the bull market is over for good," he said. "But if you can get out of the way of pullbacks and big stocks that have gone up a lot, you can actually save yourself a lot of gains, book some gains, and get back in at a better level."

Source: finance.yahoo

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Thomas

Economic

Commodity

South African mining veteran Duncan Wanblad on Wednesday lamented the country’s foregone investment in mining, as gold prices surged past $4,000 an ounce — a record high driven by expectations of lower interest rates and safe-haven demand.

Addressing the Johannesburg Mining Indaba conference, Anglo American PlcCEO Duncan Wanblad, whose company exited South Africa's gold mining sector in 2009, said the country's mining potential was under-explored "due to unsupportive policy for exploration in the last 20-odd years".

"That's a very important part of a mining life cycle. The data will show you that it takes about 17 years from the time that you find the deposit until the time that you get it permitted and ramped up into full production," Wanblad said.

"It's a generation of mines that have been foregone," he added.

On Wednesday, the gold price vaulted above $4,000 an ounce, a new record in a rally driven by expectations of lower interest rates and safe-haven demand, just as mining executives gathered at the Johannesburg conference to discuss the industry's prospects.

The record revived memories of a visit 26 years ago by South African mining executive Bobby Godsell to Washington and London to lobby the IMF and Britain against a gold sell-off, in a desperate bid to stop prices falling further below $260 an ounce.

At the time, South Africa was a top three gold producer in the world, its output averaging 400 metric tons annually. Its output has fallen from 1,000 metric tons in 1970, when the country was the leading global producer, to 90 metric tons last year.

Today, South Africa's old, deep shafts are more expensive to run, compared to rivals in Africa, Australia, Canada and South America.

Added to this, South African mining executives have said infrastructure challenges, policy uncertainty and labour unrest are holding back investment into exploration and mine development in the country.

Top South African gold miners Gold Fields, founded by Cecil Rhodes in 1887, Harmony Goldand Anglo's former gold unit, which became AngloGold Ashantiin 2004, have all acquired assets elsewhere in Africa, Australia and the Americas.