Oracle Credit Fear Gauge Hits Highest Since 2009 on AI Bubble Fears

Bond

Stocks

Summary:

Oracle has effectively sold tens of billions of dollars of bonds in recent months, through note sales in its own name and indirectly through projects that it’s backing.

A credit-risk gauge on Oracle Corp. debt closed at the highest level since the financial crisis after a flood of bond sales from tech giants amplified concerns that a bubble is forming in the artificial-intelligence industry.

The cost of protecting Oracle’s debt against default reached its highest since March 2009 on Tuesday, based on end-of-the-day credit derivative prices in New York, rising to about 1.28 percentage point a year, according to ICE Data Services. The price rose nearly 0.03 percentage point from the day before, and has more than tripled from as low as 0.36 percentage point in June.

The gauge pared some of the price gains Wednesday, tightening as much as 0.024 percentage point.

Oracle has effectively sold tens of billions of dollars of bonds in recent months, through note sales in its own name and indirectly through projects that it’s backing. Those debt sales, paired with the fact that Oracle has weaker credit ratings than other cloud-computing giants, have made the company’s credit default swaps a key way for investors to protect themselves from an AI crash.

The rising cost of default protection reflects investor angst over the gap between the massive investments already made in AI and when investors can expect to see productivity gains and an increase in corporate profits. TD Securities’ Hans Mikkelsen warns that the boom echoes previous periods of market mania that have driven asset prices to extremes before falling back to earth.

“We’ve had these kinds of cycles before,” the strategist said in an interview. “I can’t prove that it’s the same, but it seems like what we’ve seen, for example, during the dot-com bubble.”

A representative for Oracle declined to comment.

Morgan Stanley cautioned in late November that Oracle’s growing debt pile risks driving the company’s credit default swaps even closer to 2 percentage points, just above its 2008 all-time high. The figure reached on Tuesday was the highest since a March 2009 level of 1.30 percentage point for a New York close.

Austin-based Oracle, the lowest rated of the leading hyperscalers, sold $18 billion of US high-grade corporate bonds in September and its data centers are linked to the largest deal for AI-infrastructure to come to market. Oracle’s artificial intelligence ambitions are closely linked to OpenAI and the database firm is counting on hundreds of billions of dollars in revenues from OpenAI over the next few years.

Oracle had about $105 billion of debt, including leases, as of the end of August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About $95 billion of its debt is now in the form of US bonds included in the Bloomberg US Corporate index. The company is the biggest issuer in the index outside of the banking industry.

Investors have been snapping up hedges on the BBB rated firm’s debt recently. Trading volume on Oracle’s CDS had ballooned to about $8 billion over the nine weeks ended Nov. 28, according to an analysis of trade repository data by Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from $350 million in the same period last year.

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says

Data-center infrastructure outlays amid seemingly insatiable AI demand are boosting hyperscalers’ borrowing, spurring valuation concerns. Yet this angst may be excessive if the biggest tech companies reduce shareholder payouts. Record tech debt issuance can extend into 2026, but might be tempered by the vast amount of cash on balance sheets and hundreds of billions of dollars available as free cash flow before buybacks and dividends.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Confidence Abroad, Uncertainty at Home

As 2025 ends, China has projected renewed global confidence through strategic responses to U.S. tariffs, breakthroughs in AI, and growing assertiveness in critical resources like rare earths. However, this image contrasts sharply with its domestic economic outlook. While political and technological momentum may bolster China’s standing externally, internal economic data reflect a trifecta of unresolved vulnerabilities: a deteriorating property sector, sluggish household consumption, and deflationary pressures.

These issues are expected to dominate the agenda at the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, which traditionally outlines the policy direction for the year ahead. Economists are watching for decisive actions that could determine whether China can stabilize its economy or slide further into stagnation.

Property Sector: Deepening Crisis Despite Repeated Interventions

The property market continues to be China’s most destabilizing economic fault line. This year, the financial instability of Vanke, once a symbol of real estate strength, has become a focal point. The company’s request to delay repayment of a 2 billion yuan bond triggered a credit downgrade by S&P Global Ratings, reigniting fears about sector-wide contagion. As confidence among homebuyers erodes, property sales have tumbled, with November figures showing a decline of 20% to 30% year-on-year.

This relationship between developer insolvency and weakening consumer sentiment appears causal. As high-profile firms like Vanke struggle, public confidence diminishes, prompting buyers to delay or cancel purchases, which in turn further depresses developer cash flows. Edward Chan of S&P emphasized that government interventions such as mortgage subsidies are unlikely to reverse the trend without broader structural reforms.

Data from Goldman Sachs and S&P suggest that monthly sales are still more than 65 billion yuan below 2024 levels. Yet, the government has not clarified a threshold that would trigger more aggressive policy responses, leading to continued uncertainty in the sector.

Consumption: Supply-Side Optimism Meets Demand-Side Fragility

Despite Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic demand, structural weaknesses in household finances and labor markets continue to suppress consumption. Policymakers announced ambitious plans to grow consumer industries such as electronics and sports goods, with goals to create several sectors worth over 1 trillion yuan by 2027. However, these strategies are almost entirely focused on expanding supply rather than stimulating real demand.

Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the policy lacks clarity on funding mechanisms and fails to address short-term consumption triggers like employment and income support. The correlation here is instructive: although consumer-facing sectors might grow through investment and innovation, household purchasing power is not keeping pace, and bad loan ratios for consumers have surpassed those of businesses.

Natixis data shows that the household non-performing loan ratio reached 1.33% in the first half of 2025, exceeding the corporate ratio of 1.2%. This signals an imbalance in resilience: businesses can restructure debt or access relief, but households face limited recovery options under continued pressure from housing and job markets.

Deflation: A Symptom of Weak Demand and Price Wars

China’s inflation narrative has shifted from overheating fears to deflation anxiety. While the official headline inflation hovers near zero, the core Consumer Price Index (excluding volatile food and energy prices) rose just 1.2% in October. However, Chief Economist Ting Lu at Nomura pointed out that nearly a quarter of that increase came from gold price surges. Adjusted for that, core inflation stands at a tepid 0.9%.

This low inflation reflects more than just pricing dynamics—it reveals a deeper reluctance among consumers to spend and a hyper-competitive market where firms resort to price-cutting to attract demand. Charlene Chu of Autonomous Research noted that prolonged deflation is discouraging domestic corporate investment, raising the risk of a capital allocation spiral that could suppress productivity and growth in the medium term.

Gene Ma of the Institute of International Finance emphasized that China’s most urgent problem is weak aggregate demand. The drop in investment is particularly concerning, having slowed more rapidly than consumption in 2025. This underscores a potential causal chain where investment downturns, triggered by uncertainty and poor returns, exacerbate income stagnation, which in turn limits consumption, a reinforcing cycle.

Looking Ahead: Signs of Stabilization or Further Risk?

China’s November inflation data, along with industrial production and retail figures due mid-December, will offer critical insight into whether the economic drag is intensifying or plateauing. Analysts anticipate that Beijing may respond with policy stimulus in the spring, aiming to stabilize growth at the start of the next five-year plan.

Meanwhile, the CSI 300 Index remains stable, posting a modest gain of 0.65% for the week and up over 15% year-to-date. The Hang Seng, while more volatile, has climbed nearly 29% in 2025. The offshore yuan has also strengthened to its best level since late 2024, reflecting tentative investor optimism though this could reverse swiftly if policy clarity is not delivered soon.

China's global tech advances and geopolitical assertiveness have strengthened its external narrative, but its internal fragilities remain unresolved. The real estate crisis, consumer insecurity, and deflationary risks are not simply parallel challenges they are interlinked forces that reflect a broader demand-side weakness. Without significant fiscal support, job creation, and direct aid to households, China risks beginning 2026 with a confidence gap that no AI breakthrough or trade summit can easily fill.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Political

Heightened Tensions Overshadow Peace Negotiations

Recent peace talks in Moscow between the U.S. and Russia have ended inconclusively, exposing the fragile diplomatic ground beneath the prolonged Ukraine conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking ahead of the meeting, amplified his combative posture, stating that while Russia does not seek war with Europe, it is fully prepared for one should hostilities arise. This remark followed Europe’s firm rejection of previous U.S.-Russia peace drafts, seen as overly accommodating to Kremlin demands.

The five-hour closed-door meeting featured U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner engaging with Putin and senior Russian officials over a draft peace framework. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov described the discussion as constructive yet marked by substantial disagreements. The negotiation centered around a revised 27-point plan, although the specifics remain undisclosed. It is important to note that the U.S. previously introduced a 28-point plan that faced immediate pushback from Kyiv and its European partners, leading to its reduction to 19 proposals for further debate.

Diverging Objectives Deepen the Impasse

Fundamental divisions between Moscow and Kyiv continue to obstruct progress. Russia demands recognition of its control over eastern Ukrainian territories, while also rejecting Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine. These contrasting visions reflect a core structural conflict that transcends mere negotiation mechanics. Although talks are ongoing, both parties appear to be maneuvering strategically rather than aiming for immediate resolution.

The cause-and-effect dynamic here is clear: Russia’s continued military leverage on the battlefield fuels its diplomatic intransigence, reinforcing the Kremlin’s belief that time and attrition favor its goals. Conversely, Ukraine, though open to peace, finds itself in a precarious position where concessions could undermine national sovereignty and long-term security.

Putin’s Strategic Messaging and Europe’s Concerns

Putin’s assertion that Europe lacks a “peace agenda” and his readiness to confront European forces if provoked should be read as a calculated move to maintain geopolitical pressure. This escalation, paired with the exclusion of European allies and Ukraine from early negotiations, has prompted deep unease within the EU. Officials such as Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, have publicly stated that Russia shows no genuine interest in peace and that strengthening Ukraine militarily remains a top priority.

The causal relationship between Europe’s exclusion from the process and its growing distrust of U.S.-Russia diplomacy illustrates how sidelined stakeholders are unlikely to support or enforce any agreement perceived as illegitimate or imbalanced.

Washington’s Calculated Optimism Meets Kyiv’s Hopeful Resolve

Despite the setbacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has attempted to project optimism, telling Irish lawmakers that Ukraine is “closer to peace than ever before.” However, such confidence may reflect a strategic posture rather than a genuine assessment, especially as speculation grows about the U.S. potentially leaning toward a resolution that prioritizes expedience over equity.

There is also a nuanced correlation between Trump’s historically warmer stance toward Putin and growing European fears that U.S. negotiations could shift in favor of Russia’s interests, particularly if seen as a way to accelerate an end to the war ahead of electoral cycles.

Protracted Diplomacy Serves Moscow’s Broader Goals

Several analysts interpret Russia’s approach as a deliberate effort to prolong the peace process. Michael Froman of the Council on Foreign Relations argues that Putin seeks more than a ceasefire his aim is to open broader discussions on Russia’s reintegration into the Western economic and diplomatic sphere. This longer timeline benefits Moscow by allowing continued assaults on Ukraine’s infrastructure while maintaining diplomatic appearances.

The correlation between prolonged negotiations and Russia’s ability to sustain its war economy supports this view. Amos Hochstein, a former Biden advisor, concurs, noting that the Russians are not in a hurry to settle. He emphasizes the difficulty of brokering a deal that requires Ukraine to concede land in exchange for vague security promises, a scenario that could provoke significant internal and external backlash.

In the absence of trust, clarity, and inclusion, the current peace efforts risk stalling indefinitely. While diplomatic channels remain open, the underlying power asymmetry and conflicting strategic objectives of Russia, Ukraine, and their allies make any near-term resolution unlikely. The relationship between battlefield realities, geopolitical agendas, and fragile diplomacy ensures that the Ukraine conflict will remain a central feature of European insecurity for the foreseeable future.

Source: CNBC

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Manuel

Political

Stocks

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has issued a flurry of warning letters to some of the country’s most prolific providers of high-octane exchange-traded funds, effectively blocking the introduction of products designed to deliver three and even five times the daily returns of stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies.

In a set of nine almost identical letters posted Tuesday, the SEC told firms including Direxion, ProShares and Tidal that it would not move forward with reviewing proposed launches until key issues are addressed. At the heart of the regulator’s concern is that the funds’ risk exposures may exceed SEC limits on how much risk a fund can take on relative to its assets. The letters direct the fund managers to either revise their investment strategies or formally withdraw their applications.

At least one issuer has acted since the letters were published. On Wednesday, ProShares asked to withdraw its application for various 3x funds, including triple-leveraged cryptocurrency products.

“We write to express concern regarding the registration of exchange-traded funds that seek to provide more than 200% (2x) leveraged exposure to underlying indices or securities,” the SEC wrote to all nine applicants.

The move marks a rare pause in an otherwise permissive stretch for US fund approvals, which has seen a green light given to crypto-linked ETFs of all stripes, private-asset vehicles and increasingly complex trading strategies. The funds now under scrutiny are on the extreme edge of that trend — combining high leverage, daily trading resets and exposure to some of the most unstable corners of the market, including single-name stocks and digital tokens.

A central concern for the SEC is that the funds appear to be measuring their risk against a benchmark that may not fully reflect the volatility of the assets they aim to amplify.

“The issuers were aiming to go beyond the 2x limit allowed and the is SEC clearly not comfortable with that,” said Todd Sohn, a senior ETF strategist at Strategas. “Issuers were trying to get a workaround in some of the language, loopholes in a sense on what the ‘reference asset’ was on the funds.”

Some of the funds mentioned in the letters are by Volatility Shares which filed to launch ETFs with five times leverage. The funds were aimed at boosting the daily return of some of the most volatile assets including single stocks like Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp., as well as cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether. No 5x — or even 3x — single-stock ETF currently exist in the US, with SEC rules having long kept a lid on such exposure effectively capping it at 2x leverage.

Leveraged products use options to amplify returns, and they’re popular with investors because they can offer big profits quickly. Trading volumes have boomed since the pandemic as traders look for a new edge in fast-moving markets while assets have climbed to $162 billion. Leveraged ETFs have endured their share of criticism in recent years, with skeptics saying they tempt amateur investors with products that are both risky and opaque. In Europe, GraniteShares was forced to shutter its 3x Short AMD exchange-traded product in October after a big one-day surge in the shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. wiped out its value.

Staff in the SEC’s Division of Investment Management publicly posted the letters the same day they were written — an unusually speedy move that suggests the regulator wants to get its concerns out fast. The agency typically posts correspondence with firms 20 business days after wrapping up reviews.

An SEC spokesperson said the agency doesn’t comment on active registration matters.

Representatives of Direxion, ProShares and Tidal didn’t respond to requests for comment. A representative for ETF Series Solutions declined to comment. An attorney for Volatility Shares said the company was in discussions with the regulator but couldn’t provide further details.

Source: Bloomberg

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Justin

Economic

Chinese companies appear eager to embrace humanoid robots even as today's machines remain far from commercially ready, according to a new Morgan Stanley AlphaWise survey.

It was the bank's first AlphaWise survey with C-suites across various industries in China.

Analyst Sheng Zhong told investors in a note that the firm found that "62% of respondents are likely to adopt in the next 3 years," a result it says is both strong and, in some cases, surprising.

However, the technology has a long way to go. Morgan Stanley reports that "products are not ready," with only 23% of respondents "satisfied with current products."

Executives are said to have cited shortcomings in dexterity, functionality, and pricing. Cost is also a major barrier, as "92% of respondents" said robots must fall "sub-RMB200K" (about US$28,000) for mass adoption to become viable.

According to the survey, "Unitree is the most engaged brand, followed by DeepRobotics, UBTECH, and Midea."

Still, most companies remain in a holding pattern, with the report noting that "only ~10% of respondents are currently evaluating or launching pilot projects."

Even so, expectations for long-term labor substitution are substantial. Respondents believe "11% and 28% of jobs [could be] replaced by robots in the next 5 and 10 years, respectively."

Morgan Stanley says the 62% adoption likelihood "may be optimistic," given that the sample consists of large enterprises that already use robotics.

Yet the findings reinforce its constructive view of the sector. The firm writes that the survey "strengthens our positive long-term view on humanoid robots," while cautioning that volume ramp-up will take time.

New models, government subsidies and potential IPOs could keep the theme prominent in 2026. Morgan Stanley highlights components as the earliest beneficiaries, naming Inovance, Leaderdrive, Hesai and Hengli Hydraulic.

Source: Investing

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Golden Gleam

Commodity

Economic

Technical Analysis

Gold and silver prices are higher in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, with silver hitting another record high and closing in on $60.00 an ounce. Silver held its overnight gains and gold added to its modest overnight gains following a U.S. economic report that was weaker than market expectations. Technical buying from the speculators is also featured at mid-week, as the near-term chart postures for both markets are firmly bullish. February gold was last up $30.00 at $4,250.80. March silver prices were up $0.347 at $59.06.

The monthly ADP jobs report for November showed a 32,000 decline in jobs, versus expectations for a rise of 40,000. The data has taken on added importance with official government releases still delayed. Today's ADP report falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see lower U.S. interest rates sooner.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note held around 4.08%, pausing a recent rise as investors weigh the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Markets are currently pricing in an 89% chance of a 0.25% rate cut next week at the Fed's FOMC meeting, with about 0.9% of total Fed easing priced in for 2026. Expectations that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett will likely be nominated as the next Fed chair have added to the dovish marketplace sentiment. Hassett is known for supporting faster rate reductions in line with President Trump's stance.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and at a three-week low. Crude oil prices are higher and trading around $59.50 a barrel.

The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.

Technically, February gold futures bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,100.00. First resistance is seen at $4,300.00 and then at $4,350.00. First support is seen at $4,200.00 and then at Tuesday's low of $4,194.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $60.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $55.00. First resistance is seen at today's contract high of $59.655 and then at $60.00. Next support is seen at $58.00 and then at this week's low of $56.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

Source: Kitco

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Thomas

Economic

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday after data showed a surprise decrease in private-sector payrolls in November, adding to worries about labor market weakness and cementing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

In late morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield dipped 1.3 basis points (bps) to 4.075%, while the 30-year yield was flat at 4.744% (US30YT=RR).

On the front end of the curve, the two-year yield, which reflects interest rate moves by the Fed, was down 1.6 bps at 3.499% (US2YT=RR).

Data showed that U.S. private employment decreased by 32,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 47,000 increase in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment rising by 10,000 jobs after a previously reported 42,000 rebound in October.

Following the data, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89% chance of a 25-bp cut next week, up from 83.4% a week ago, CME FedWatch showed.

"The labor market is going to be the driver of Fed policy right now because if we're looking at what the risks are, the risk of inflation accelerating from here seems pretty low to us and most economists, and for the Fed, the risk of the labor market deteriorating more than expected is going to be the focus," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research in New York.

"So when we get any sort of negative reading on the labor market, like we got...with the ADP report, expectations about the path of Fed policy are going to shift. If it seems like the labor market is going to pivot from just gradually cooling to actually deteriorating sharply, that would imply a greater number of cuts over the next 12 months or so."

Separately, the U.S. services sector activity held steady in November, with employment still subdued and prices for inputs elevated, a survey showed on Wednesday. The report added to expectations of Fed easing next week.

The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index was little changed at 52.6 last month from 52.4 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI slipping to 52.1.

In other parts of the bond market, the yield curve, which reflects monetary policy expectations, was last little changed, with the spread between U.S. two-year and 10-year yields at 57.5 bps (US2US10=TWEB), from 57.4 bps on Tuesday. The curve steepened to as high 58.3 bps earlier in the session, and hit 59 bps on Tuesday, the widest spread since September.

The curve exhibited a moderate bull-steepening pattern, a scenario in which shorter-dated yields are falling faster than those on long maturities. It's mostly a reflection of market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates imminently.