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The European Union and the United States might reach a framework trade deal this weekend that would end months of uncertainty for European industry, according to a report from Reuters, citing EU officials and diplomats on Friday.

The potential agreement would likely include a 15% baseline tariff on all EU goods entering the United States, with European steel and aluminum facing a probable 50% tariff, these sources said.

U.S. President Donald Trump expressed caution about the prospects, stating on Friday that there was a "50-50 chance or perhaps less" of reaching a trade agreement with the European Union. He added that Brussels wanted to "make a deal very badly."

One source indicated that a weekend deal appeared likely as the "agreement is basically in the hands of Trump now."

There might also be a high-level meeting to finalize terms, as a source familiar with the negotiations mentioned there was a "good chance" European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would meet Trump in Scotland over the weekend.

A spokesperson for the European Commission did not respond to multiple requests for comment regarding a possible meeting between the leaders.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Ethereum price is once again in the spotlight. Not just because of its price action, but because institutional investors are finally showing their cards. The U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have started pulling serious weight, and the charts are responding. So, what's the Ethereum price prediction?

Ethereum Price Prediction: Why is Ethereum Price Heating Up?

ETH/USD Daily Chart- TradingView

Let’s look at the chart first. ETH price has been on a sharp uptrend since late June. The Heikin Ashi candles are clean, consecutive, and mostly bullish green. More importantly, the Ethereum price has stayed consistently above the mid-Bollinger Band, a sign of strong momentum. ETH price recently touched the upper Bollinger Band near $3750 and has since pulled back slightly to around $3660, suggesting a cooling phase after an overextended rally.

But here's the thing. This isn't just a random move. Ethereum price cracked through key resistance levels like $3200 and $3400 with barely any hesitation. Pivot points show ETH is currently consolidating just under the R3 level. That’s usually the area where smart money decides whether to book profits or push for a breakout.

If ETH price stays above the $3550 support, we could see a clean push toward $3900 and possibly $4200 in the coming weeks. On the downside, a drop below $3400 would indicate the bulls are exhausted, and a retest of the $3200 region could follow.

Are Ethereum ETFs Driving This Surge?

Total ETH ETF Inflow: Image Source: SoSoValue

Absolutely. The ETH ETF narrative is no longer speculative. It is here, and the numbers tell the story.

As of July 24, the cumulative net inflow into Ethereum spot ETFs has reached $8.88 billion. Just on that day, inflows totaled over $231 million. That is not retail money. This is institutional conviction, and it is spreading fast. The ETFs now hold over $20.7 billion worth of ETH, which accounts for nearly 5 percent of Ethereum's total market cap.

That kind of buy pressure does not just prop up the price. It changes the entire market structure. Fewer coins are in circulation. Volatility tightens. And demand starts to outpace supply.

The impact is already visible. ETH’s daily volume spiked past $2.1 billion in ETF trades alone. That sort of liquidity injection builds a foundation for long-term price appreciation and stability.

Ethereum ETFs are injecting real momentum into the market. With over $8.8 billion in cumulative inflows and $231 million added in a single day, institutional interest is no longer theory it’s visible demand.

These ETFs are soaking up circulating supply, which naturally puts upward pressure on price. It also brings more stability and legitimacy to ETH, making it attractive not just to traders, but to long-term asset managers who previously avoided crypto due to regulatory uncertainty.

This kind of sustained inflow shifts ETH from a speculative asset to a portfolio staple. If the current trend holds, the ETF-driven demand could create a new price floor around $3600 to $3700. From there, a break past $4000 is likely, especially if daily inflows continue above $200 million. The more capital that flows into ETFs, the stronger the buying wall becomes, setting up Ethereum for a breakout rally toward $4200 or even higher in Q3.

What’s the Ethereum Price Prediction?

If this ETF momentum continues, ETH price does not just have a shot at reclaiming $4000. It could create a new price floor there. Based on the current chart setup, a push toward $4200 is technically valid, especially if ETF inflows stay above the $200 million daily average. That level aligns with extended Bollinger projections and Fibonacci targets from the last swing low in early July.

But don’t ignore short-term corrections. If ETF hype cools temporarily, Ethereum price could retrace to the $3200 zone before resuming upward.

Ethereum price is no longer trading just on sentiment or tech upgrades. It is now backed by serious capital through regulated ETFs. That changes the game. The charts are bullish, but the inflow numbers are what really validate this trend. As long as those numbers keep climbing, the road to $4000 and beyond is wide open.

Source: CryptoSlate

Key points:

MSCI's index tracking global EM currencies was down 0.3%, as most Asian currencies depreciated against the dollar. The index, however, was set to log weekly gains after two weeks of losses.

This week, markets took on more risk after the U.S. signed a trade deal with Japan and signalled that more agreements were in the works, reviving some hopes that the worst tariff impacts could be avoided.However, investors were cautious with risk assets in order to brave the upcoming week, which will feature U.S. jobs data, a meeting of the Federal Reserve and Trump's August 1 tariff deadline.

On the day, South Africa's randfell 0.7%. Most emerging European currencies were subdued against the euro."We would expect market swings to be temporary ... trade negotiations will ultimately lead to moderate policy, but we expect a tariff-led economic slowdown to be mild and short-lived, rather than recessionary," said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Turkey's lirawas 0.7% higher against the greenback, a day after its central bank delivered a surprise 300 basis point interest rate cut. The currency eyed its biggest one-day gain since June 2024.Worries over the independence of the Fed also remained, with Trump's calls for lower interest rates persistent despite his reiterating he was not planning to fire the Fed chair.Haefele said these fears, along with lower interest rates could continue to impact the dollar, and investors could look to reduce their holdings.

Russia's roublewas down 0.4% against the greenback, over-the-counter-market data showed, ahead of a central bank decision where it is expected to cut rates by 200 basis points.Stocks in the region also pulled back after two days of gains, with MSCI's EM stocks gaugeCBOE:EFSdown 0.8%. It was still set for a second week of gains, however.

Equities in Polandfell 0.6%, while Hungary'swere down 0.2%. Turkish stockswere little changed, though set for their fifth week of gains, their longest winning streak since December.South African equitiesslipped 0.7%, as gold miners weighed, tracking lower prices of the bullion.In Senegal, international bonds extended their rally, with dollar bonds maturing in 2033 gaining more than 1 cent to the dollar.

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it would send a mission to Dakar next month to discuss the nation's debt misreporting case and a potential new programme.Meanwhile, Fitch and Moody's will review their rating on Turkey, while Kenya and Bulgaria are also due a review.

Source: TradingView

Time to wrap up…

Rachel Reeves could “easily” breach fiscal rules if growth disappoints or rate shocks materialise, the IMF has warned.

While the new Labour government has embarked on a “bold agenda”, the IMF said, delivering it will require overcoming “significant challenges” amid shockwaves from the trade war and the confines of tight fiscal headroom.

The British government could reduce pressure for “overly-frequent changes to fiscal policy” by introducing more headroom, the IMF said in the final version of an annual report on Britain’s economy.

British retail sales rise in June, official figures show

There is some positive news for the retail sector this morning, with official figures showing that monthly sales rose in June by 0.9%. It follows a fall of 2.8% in May.

That was helped by warm weather, with supermarkets reporting better trading and an increase in drink purchases, the Office for National Statistics has said.

NatWest investors given £1.5bn weeks after full privatisation

NatWest will give a further £1.5bn to shareholders only weeks after the UK government sold the final part of its stake in the once bailed-out bank.

The high street lender on Friday announced plans to distribute an interim dividend of 9.5p a share, worth a collective £768m, on top of a fresh £750m share buy-back in the second half of the year.

It came as the bank beat market forecasts with a 4.4% rise in second-quarter profits to just under £1.8bn, thanks in part to higher income linked to its takeover of Sainsbury’s banking business, which it snapped up last year.

Source: GUARDIAN