Oil Holds Gains as Geopolitical Tensions Offset Supply Concerns

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Oil prices remained steady on Thursday as traders weighed the uncertain outlook for Ukraine peace talks and potential U.S. military action in Venezuela, with geopolitical risks helping support crude despite bearish supply fundamentals....

Ukraine Diplomacy and Venezuela Tensions Support Crude

Crude oil prices held modest gains on Thursday, underpinned by a delicate geopolitical balance. Brent traded just under $63 per barrel following a 0.4% uptick on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $59. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic following U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks that recent Ukraine peace discussions were “reasonably good,” though he acknowledged that a deal was far from certain.

In parallel, Trump's comments on Venezuela added a fresh layer of geopolitical risk. The President reaffirmed that the U.S. would begin strikes against drug cartels operating on Venezuelan soil “very soon,” with American forces reportedly building up in the region. This has introduced a new source of geopolitical premium in crude markets, offsetting ongoing concerns about oversupply and weak demand.

Analyst Gao Jian of Qisheng Futures highlighted that while the Venezuela situation introduces near-term uncertainty, the broader supply picture remains bearish, which may ultimately cap any sustained upside in oil prices.

Supply Glut Continues to Apply Downward Pressure

Despite short-term geopolitical risks, the fundamental balance of supply and demand continues to weigh heavily on the oil market. OPEC+ nations have resumed previously curtailed production, while non-OPEC producers have also increased output. At the same time, demand signals from key markets like China remain muted.

According to Janet Hong, CEO of Hengli Petrochemical International, Chinese demand for crude is unlikely to rebound significantly before mid-2026. This projection underscores a structural weakness in global consumption, particularly from what had been a key demand growth engine in previous years.

Further compounding bearish sentiment, Trafigura Group’s Chief Economist Saad Rahim stated at the FT Commodities Asia Summit that the market remains oversupplied and that “the path of least resistance for prices is likely down.” His assessment reflects a causal link between the ongoing supply glut and price suppression, even as temporary geopolitical risks offer intermittent support.

U.S. Inventory Data Reinforces Bearish Outlook

The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report added to the bearish undertone, showing a 574,000-barrel increase in domestic crude inventories. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also rose, reflecting sluggish refined product demand and continued strong output from U.S. producers.

This inventory build reinforces the view that supply continues to outpace demand, creating a fundamental ceiling for prices despite current support from international conflict scenarios. The market’s recent resilience appears to be driven more by speculative positioning around headlines than by structural rebalancing in physical flows.

Risk Premium Clashes with Oversupply Reality

While oil prices are currently buoyed by geopolitical uncertainty surrounding both Ukraine and Venezuela, the durability of this support remains questionable. As OPEC+ production returns and China’s demand stays subdued, the physical oversupply of crude remains a significant drag.

In the absence of a major supply disruption or a breakthrough in peace talks that could shift the demand landscape, prices are likely to remain under pressure. For now, oil markets are navigating between headline-driven volatility and a stubbornly bearish underlying trend.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Muted Start Expected Amid Currency and FII Pressures

India’s equity markets are poised for a cautious start Thursday, with GIFT Nifty futures indicating the Nifty 50 index will open near Wednesday’s close at 25,986. Investor sentiment remains fragile amid continued selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and sharp depreciation in the Indian rupee.

Provisional data shows FPIs sold ₹32.07 billion ($355.7 million) worth of Indian equities on Wednesday, marking their fifth consecutive session of net outflows. This ongoing capital flight has dragged the Nifty 50 down by 0.9% and the BSE Sensex by 0.7% over the past four trading sessions, eroding some gains after both benchmarks touched 14-month highs last week.

Rupee Breaches 90 per Dollar, Hits All-Time Low

The Indian rupee extended its downtrend to an eighth consecutive month, falling past the critical 90 mark against the U.S. dollar for the first time. This depreciation has reached an all-time low, driven by weak trade and investment inflows and a notable increase in corporate hedging activity in anticipation of further currency weakness.

This steep currency decline has a direct causal effect on foreign investment behavior. A weaker rupee increases currency risk for dollar-based investors, discouraging further inflows and contributing to outflows. The trend also complicates inflation management, as import costs rise.

Markets Await RBI Decision as Rate Expectations Shift

Investor attention is now turning to the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision on Friday. Although a Reuters poll conducted before last week’s robust Q2 GDP data suggested a possible 25-basis-point rate cut, the strong growth print has shifted expectations. The RBI may now be less inclined to ease rates, given inflation risks and currency instability.

Here, the relationship between GDP data and monetary policy expectations is crucial. While rate cuts typically support equity valuations, the combination of strong growth and a falling rupee may lead policymakers to prioritize currency defense over rate stimulus.

Sector Highlights and Corporate Developments

Several stocks are in focus due to sector-specific developments and policy changes. Indigo (InterGlobe Aviation) faced major operational disruption, cancelling at least 150 flights on Wednesday due to pilot shortages caused by new government fatigue management regulations. These disruptions are likely to impact investor confidence in the short term, particularly in aviation-related stocks.

Cigarette manufacturers ITC and Godfrey Phillips will also be under scrutiny following parliamentary approval of a new tax law that could lead to higher cigarette prices. If passed onto consumers, the move may dampen demand, affecting revenue projections for tobacco firms.

In a more positive development, fintech firm Pine Labs reported a consolidated profit of ₹59.7 million for Q2, reversing a year-ago loss, supported by rising revenue. This reversal could bolster confidence in India’s tech-driven financial services sector, offering a bright spot amid broader market uncertainty.

Despite earlier record highs and solid macroeconomic performance, Indian equity markets now face headwinds from global and domestic factors. Persistent foreign outflows, rupee depreciation, and uncertainty over RBI policy direction are clouding investor sentiment. Unless clarity emerges from Friday’s policy announcement and currency pressures stabilize, equity performance may remain range-bound in the near term. The market’s resilience will likely be tested by capital flows, interest rate decisions, and ongoing geopolitical risks.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Political

U.S. Navy Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley, incoming commander, U.S. Special Operations Command, delivers remarks during the USSOCOM Change of Command Ceremony in Tampa, Florida, U.S. October 3, 2025. Airman 1st Class Monique Stober/U.S. Special Operations Command/Handout via REUTERS

A U.S. military commander is expected tell lawmakers on Thursday that survivors of a military strike in the Caribbean were legitimate targets for a second attack because their vessel was still believed to contain illegal narcotics, a U.S. official told Reuters.

On September 2, the U.S. military carried out a strike in the Caribbean which killed 11 suspected drug traffickers.

Officials have said that the U.S. military carried out a second strike against their vessel, which has raised questions about the legality of the operation.

Admiral Frank M. Bradley, who was the head of Joint Special Operations Command at the time, will tell lawmakers in a classified briefing on Thursday that the two survivors were legitimate military targets because they were perceived as capable of continuing drug trafficking, the official said.

Bradley, who now leads U.S. Special Operations Command, will be joined by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, during the closed-door hearing, the official added.

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The early September strike has drawn bipartisan scrutiny from Congress and concerns about the legality of the administration's moves. So far, there have been 20 U.S. military strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific against suspected drug vessels, killing more than 80 people.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday he had watched the first U.S. strike in September on the alleged drug-smuggling vessel in real time, but did not see survivors in the water or the second lethal strike that he described as being carried out in the "fog of war." But he defended Bradley's decision to carry out a follow-up strike.

"Admiral Bradley made the correct decision to ultimately sink the boat and eliminate the threat," Hegseth said.

Trump, who told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that he would not have wanted the second strike, largely voiced support on Tuesday, while saying he hadn't been aware of the second strike.

U.S. officials have told Reuters that Hegseth has ordered lethal strikes on drug vessels, including the early September one in question, as part of a broader Trump administration campaign that equates suspected drug traffickers with terrorists despite objections from many legal experts.

Source: Reuters

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Winkelmann

Stocks

Forex

Memory chipmaker Micron Technology said on Dec 3 it will exit its consumer business, as it doubles down on advanced memory chips used in artificial intelligence data centres amid a global supply shortage of the essential semiconductors.

Micron's move to dissolve its consumer business comes against a backdrop of worldwide strain in memory supply chains, with tight availability of semiconductors ranging from Nand flash chips used in smartphones to advanced high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, employed in AI data centres.

It will halt the sale of the "Crucial" unit's consumer-branded products at retailers, e-tailers and distributors worldwide, but will continue product shipments through the consumer channel until February 2026, Micron said.

This consumer memory unit is not an important driver of Micron's business, said Summit Insights analyst Kinngai Chan.

Micron has long been shifting focus to its HBM business, which has emerged as the most competitive area between the world's three largest memory suppliers: Micron and South Korea's S.K. Hynix and Samsung.

"The AI-driven growth in the data centre has led to a surge in demand for memory and storage," said Sumit Sadana, chief business officer at Micron.

"Micron has made the difficult decision to exit the Crucial consumer business in order to improve supply and support for our larger, strategic customers in faster-growing segments."

HBM – a type of dynamic random access memory – involves stacking chips vertically to reduce power consumption, helping process large volumes of data, making it invaluable in AI development. These chips are pricier than consumer memory and generally fetch lucrative margins.

In the August quarter, Micron's HBM revenue grew to nearly US$2 billion (S$2.6 billion), implying an annualised run rate of nearly US$8 billion, chief executive officer Sanjay Mehrotra said in September.

In 2026, Micron is due to begin production of HBM chips at its new US$7 billion (S$8.9 billion) plant in Woodlands, to meet the rising demand from AI applications.

Singapore is also Micron's main production base of leading-edge Nand flash memory chips used in solid-state drives, USB drives and mobile phones.

Source: Straitstimes

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Gerik

Economic

Enhanced H-1B Scrutiny Reflects Free Speech Agenda

In a sharp escalation of its immigration and free speech policies, the Trump administration has ordered U.S. consulates worldwide to apply rigorous new screening standards to H-1B visa applicants. A confidential cable sent to all U.S. missions on December 2 outlined detailed instructions for identifying individuals who may have participated in online content moderation, fact-checking, or compliance roles deemed by the administration as "censorship of protected expression."

This directive reflects a clear causal link between the administration’s ideological stance on free speech particularly in defense of conservative voices online and its use of immigration policy as an enforcement tool. While previous H-1B reviews have focused on qualifications and fraud prevention, the new emphasis on political expression marks a deeper politicization of visa procedures.

Employment Histories and Online Profiles Under New Scrutiny

The memo instructs consular officers to examine applicants’ resumes and LinkedIn profiles including those of accompanying family members to assess whether they have worked in sectors such as misinformation management, online safety, or social media compliance. The cable suggests that involvement in these areas could constitute grounds for ineligibility under the Immigration and Nationality Act.

Importantly, this expanded vetting now applies not only to first-time H-1B applicants but also to repeat renewals, increasing the exposure of tech workers from abroad particularly those from India and China who dominate H-1B intake to rejection or revocation.

By framing content moderation as a disqualifying activity, the policy introduces a causal pathway in which prior employment in corporate or government roles related to online discourse could lead directly to immigration exclusion.

Tech Sector Implications and Political Undercurrents

The H-1B visa is a cornerstone of U.S. tech workforce strategy, with firms like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon relying on these visas to recruit global talent. Many of these companies also publicly supported Trump in the last election, creating a paradox in which his administration’s new policy may hinder the very firms that have aligned with his broader economic platform.

Analysts have expressed concern that the policy could be interpreted as punitive toward roles commonly associated with fact-checking or misinformation control particularly if those activities intersected with controversial U.S. political narratives such as vaccine hesitancy or election integrity. The broader correlation between political affiliation and immigration risk is likely to stoke further tension between the tech industry and federal agencies.

Broader Immigration and Speech Crackdown

This move follows a series of Trump-era actions linking immigration and online speech. In May, Senator Marco Rubio proposed visa bans for individuals accused of censoring American voices online. The administration has also imposed social media screenings on student visa applicants and raised fees for H-1B visas in September, reinforcing a trend of tightening immigration access through ideological and financial channels.

The administration’s rhetoric has focused on alleged suppression of right-wing political expression, with officials criticizing European authorities for similar actions. Trump’s alignment with this narrative domestically and abroad underscores a consistent foreign policy theme: the defense of what it deems unrestricted political speech, now enforced through immigration levers.

A Politicized Visa Landscape Emerges

The Trump administration’s enhanced vetting for H-1B applicants marks a convergence of immigration control and political ideology. By linking visa eligibility to past roles in online moderation or misinformation efforts, the administration is reshaping immigration policy to reflect broader cultural and political battles over free expression.

While the long-term legal and diplomatic ramifications remain uncertain, the immediate effect is clear: a more restrictive, politically sensitive visa environment that could deter skilled workers and unsettle global tech hiring pipelines. As the administration prepares to name a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell and implement more permanent tariff measures, these shifts signal an evolving and increasingly confrontational posture on multiple international fronts.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Dollar Slumps as Markets Cement Rate-Cut Outlook

The U.S. dollar continued its decline on Thursday following softer-than-expected economic data that has solidified market belief in an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. According to CME FedWatch, investors are now pricing in an 89% probability that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points at its December 9–10 meeting. Alongside this, expectations for nearly 90 basis points of easing in 2026 have also gained traction.

This sharp repricing has pushed the dollar index down to 98.919, hovering near a five-week low and down almost 9% year-to-date. The rapid loss in dollar strength reflects not just domestic economic softness but also rising global confidence, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia.

The cause-effect relationship is direct: weak U.S. labor data evident in ADP’s November report showing a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs has led to elevated rate-cut speculation, which in turn has put downward pressure on the dollar across the board. The euro, yen, sterling, and several Asia-Pacific currencies have all responded positively to the shift.

Fed Leadership Speculation Adds to Uncertainty

Investor nerves were further rattled by speculation that Kevin Hassett, current White House economic adviser, could replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May. Hassett is seen as favoring more aggressive monetary easing, aligning with President Trump’s longstanding preference for lower rates.

Reports suggest bond investors have already voiced concern to the U.S. Treasury that Hassett’s appointment might lead to politicized rate cuts. This adds a layer of institutional uncertainty to an already volatile monetary policy landscape. While such a leadership change is not guaranteed, the expectation alone is contributing to dollar softness and heightened foreign exchange volatility.

Macquarie’s Thierry Wizman noted that the combination of stronger foreign economic data, particularly in the euro zone, and the possibility of a dovish Fed shift under Hassett’s leadership has accelerated the dollar’s slide.

Euro Strengthens on Robust Eurozone Activity

The euro climbed to $1.1674 in Asian trading after breaching a seven-week high on the back of strong eurozone business activity. November marked the fastest pace of expansion in over two and a half years, supporting the euro’s upward momentum.

The euro has now gained more than 12% in 2025, on track for its best annual performance since 2017. This rally reflects both domestic economic improvement in Europe and a weaker dollar backdrop caused by earlier tariff uncertainties and current rate-cut expectations. Importantly, the European Central Bank is not expected to follow the Fed’s easing trajectory, with only a 25% chance of any rate cut in 2026 being priced in.

The differing monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and ECB form a clear causal mechanism behind the widening euro-dollar divergence.

Asian Currencies Hold Firm Amid Domestic Developments

The Japanese yen stabilized at 155.18 per dollar. Although the yen had been under pressure recently, some of that stress has eased following comments by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda that signaled possible rate hikes. Markets now anticipate a policy shift from the Bank of Japan in two weeks. Additionally, concerns about unilateral intervention by Japanese authorities appear to be fading.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar traded at $0.66075 and the New Zealand dollar at $0.5774 both near monthly highs. These gains are not only a byproduct of broad dollar weakness but also reflect relative stability in domestic fundamentals and investor appetite for higher-yielding assets as U.S. yields look increasingly capped.

Sterling also firmed, reaching $1.33425 its strongest since late October. Its performance underscores how currencies with moderate economic outlooks are benefitting from the relative decline of U.S. monetary dominance.

A Tectonic Shift in Currency Sentiment

As weak U.S. data collides with mounting political and leadership uncertainty at the Federal Reserve, global markets are rapidly adjusting to a world where the dollar may no longer be the dominant safe haven. The euro, yen, and commodity-linked currencies are all experiencing upward momentum, fueled by diverging policy paths and improved macroeconomic conditions abroad.

While analysts like Thomas Mathews of Capital Economics caution that the U.S. economy remains strong enough to limit the extent of the dollar's decline, the current shift in sentiment suggests that global capital may continue rebalancing in favor of non-dollar assets especially if the Fed’s next leadership team signals a longer or deeper easing cycle in 2026.

Source: Reuters

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Winkelmann

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Key Points:

· Institutional demand remains solid, with XRP-spot ETFs extending a 12-day inflow streak and signaling deeper market participation.

· Social sentiment indicators and the BTC Fear & Greed Index align with the bullish trend, reinforcing upside momentum for XRP.

· Fed rate-cut expectations rise, strengthening the case for an XRP move toward $2.35 and potentially $3.

XRP hit key resistance at $2.2 on Wednesday, December 3, as spot ETF net inflows approached $1 billion. US economic indicators eased stagflation risks while boosting bets on a December Fed rate cut, setting up a perfect storm for risk assets such as XRP.

The ADP reported a 32k drop in employment in November after a 47k rise in October, supporting a more dovish Fed rate path. Meanwhile, the all-important ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose from 52.4 in October to 52.6 in November.

Services sector activity is key to the US economy, given that it accounts for around 80% of GDP. Crucially, the Prices Index dropped from 70 to 65.4, suggesting a softer inflation outlook, abating stagflation jitters.

XRPUSD – Hourly Chart – 041225

Easing fears of US stagflation, rising bets on a December Fed rate cut, and robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs support a more bullish short- to medium-term outlook.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind the breakout, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

XRP-Spot ETFs Extend Inflow Streak with More Launches Imminent

On Tuesday, December 2, XRP-spot ETFs reported $67.74 million in net inflows, down from $89.65 million the previous session. Nevertheless, the XRP-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to 12 consecutive sessions, underscoring robust institutional demand.

Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) led the way on December 2, with net inflows of $21.17 million. Meanwhile, Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) led the inflow table since launch, with net inflows of $355.21 million, benefiting from a first-to-market advantage. There is a delay in the release of spot ETF flow data, with numbers for Wednesday, December 3, expected later today.

Crucially, the resilient demand for spot ETFs tilts the supply-demand balance in XRP's favor, supporting a bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

SoSoValue – XRP Price and ETF Flow Trends

For context, Bitcoin (BTC) soared 169% to an October 6, 2025, all-time high of $125,761, driven by net inflows of $63.7 billion into BTC-spot ETFs from launch through October 6. Since October 7, 2025, ETF issuers reported net outflows of $3.5 billion, leaving BTC down 26% from its all-time high. BTC-spot ETF market flow trends underscored the significance of institutional demand on price action.

Social Media Data Sends Bullish Signals

Spot ETF inflows and social media indicators align with the bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

Market Intelligence platform Santiment gave insights into current investor sentiment on crypto across social media platforms overnight, stating:

"According to social media data across X, Reddit, Telegram, 4Chan, BitcoinTalk, & Farcaster, the enormous swings from greed to fear have perfectly told the story for Bitcoin's price."

Santiment shared a chart showing BTC price trends on positive and negative sentiment ratios on social media, explaining that:

"Red circles indicate days where there are abnormally higher BULLISH comments compared to BEARISH comments, about $BTC (Greed Zone). Green circles indicate days where there are abnormally higher BEARISH comments compared to BULLISH comments, about $BTC (Fear Zone)."

Social media sentiment has proven a leading BTC price indicator, crucial for the broader market, given performance correlations with Bitcoin. Santiment described the inverse relationship between sentiment ratios and BTC price action, stating:

"Since we know markets move the opposite direction of the crowd's predictions, the days where comments dip into the Fear Zone have perfectly predicted upcoming bounces. And alternatively, the days where comments dip into the Greed Zone have perfectly predicted upcoming dips. This latest rise has made retail greedy once again, but it may calm down quickly if the rally comes to a quick halt."

Santiment – Retail Sentiment on Social Media and BTC Price Trends

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index currently sits in the Fear Zone at 26, down from 28 the previous day, supporting further price gains.

BTC Fear & Greed Index – 041225

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Intact

XRP consolidated its December 2 rally on December 3, reinforcing the bullish medium-term price outlook. Several key price catalysts are likely to boost demand for XRP, including:

· Broader investor access to spot ETFs.

· The progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.

· Expectations of a multiple Fed rate cuts.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a December Fed rate cut rose from 88.0% on December 2 to 89.0% on December 3. Meanwhile, the probability of a March 2026 Fed rate cut stands at 52.9%, up from 45.6% on December 2.

In my opinion, these price catalysts support a near-term (1-4 weeks) move to $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) climb to $3.

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook

Despite the positive outlook, several potential events could derail a Santa Rally. These include:

· Market disruption from Bank of Japan and Fed monetary policy decisions and forward guidance.

· If MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs), it would likely reduce blue-chip companies' demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

· The Market Structure Bill hits a US Senate roadblock.

· OCC rejects Bitcoin's application for a US-chartered banking license.

· XRP-spot ETF outflows.

These events could push XRP below $2 and expose the November low of $1.82 before a sustained move toward $3.

In summary, the short-term outlook is cautiously bullish, while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP gained 2.03% on Wednesday, December 3, following the previous day's 6.04% rally, closing at $2.1973. The token underperformed the broader market, which advanced 2.92%.

Despite Wednesday's gains, XRP continued to trade below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias. However, fundamentals have shifted from the technical trend, supporting a bullish outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

· Support levels: $2.2, $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239

· 50-day EMA resistance: $2.3191.

· 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4971.

· Resistance levels: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Holding above the $2.2 support level would open the door to testing the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would bring the $2.35 resistance level into play. Crucially, a breakout from the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal, supporting a move to $2.35.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 041225

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions

Near-term price drivers include:

· XRP-spot ETF daily flows.

· Blue-chip companies' positions on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

· Regulatory milestones: Ripple's application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.

· MSCI's decision on DAT listings.

· The Fed and the BoJ's rate paths.

Bullish Scenario: What Happens if $2.2 Holds?

Positive market sentiment and a hold above $2.2 would support a move to the upper trendline. Breaking resistance at the upper trendline would align with the medium-term $3 price target.

However, a move below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 041225 – Bullish

Outlook: $2.2 Support Key for Bullish Medium-Term Path

XRP will come under increased scrutiny on Thursday, December 4. Robust inflows into XRP-spot ETFs and rising bets on multiple Fed rate cuts would support the current recovery toward $2.35.

However, traders should closely monitor the progress of the Market Structure Bill, US economic indicators, the BoJ, and the Fed, which will also influence risk sentiment.

Source: FX Empire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Oil Holds Gains as Geopolitical Tensions Offset Supply Concerns

Ukraine Diplomacy and Venezuela Tensions Support Crude

Supply Glut Continues to Apply Downward Pressure

U.S. Inventory Data Reinforces Bearish Outlook

Risk Premium Clashes with Oversupply Reality

Source: Bloomberg

India Stocks Set for Flat Open as Rupee Weakens and Foreign Outflows Deepen

Muted Start Expected Amid Currency and FII Pressures

Rupee Breaches 90 per Dollar, Hits All-Time Low

Markets Await RBI Decision as Rate Expectations Shift

Sector Highlights and Corporate Developments

Source: Reuters

Survivors Of U.S. Military Strike In Caribbean Were Legitimate Targets For Second Attack, Admiral To Tell Lawmakers

U.S. Navy Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley, incoming commander, U.S. Special Operations Command, delivers remarks during the USSOCOM Change of Command Ceremony in Tampa, Florida, U.S. October 3, 2025. Airman 1st Class Monique Stober/U.S. Special Operations Command/Handout via REUTERS

Source: Reuters

Micron To Stop Selling Memory To Consumers As demand Soars For AI Chips

Source: Straitstimes

Trump Administration Imposes Stricter H-1B Visa Vetting, Targets Free Speech “Censorship” Concerns

Enhanced H-1B Scrutiny Reflects Free Speech Agenda

Employment Histories and Online Profiles Under New Scrutiny

Tech Sector Implications and Political Undercurrents

Broader Immigration and Speech Crackdown

A Politicized Visa Landscape Emerges

Source: Reuters

Dollar Slips as Rate-Cut Bets Mount, Euro Hits Seven-Week High on Global Confidence Shift

Dollar Slumps as Markets Cement Rate-Cut Outlook

Fed Leadership Speculation Adds to Uncertainty

Euro Strengthens on Robust Eurozone Activity

Asian Currencies Hold Firm Amid Domestic Developments

A Tectonic Shift in Currency Sentiment

Source: Reuters

XRP News Today: ETF Momentum And Fed Signals Lift Outlook

Key Points:

XRPUSD – Hourly Chart – 041225

XRP-Spot ETFs Extend Inflow Streak with More Launches Imminent

SoSoValue – XRP Price and ETF Flow Trends

Social Media Data Sends Bullish Signals

Santiment – Retail Sentiment on Social Media and BTC Price Trends

BTC Fear & Greed Index – 041225

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Intact

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook

Financial Analysis

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 041225

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions

Bullish Scenario: What Happens if $2.2 Holds?

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 041225 – Bullish

Outlook: $2.2 Support Key for Bullish Medium-Term Path

Source: FX Empire

Risk Disclosure